I predict that when hell freezes over, it will be because the Cubs have won the World Series.

This is my Theory.

Quote from: James J SkachI predict that when hell freezes over, it will be because the Cubs have won the World Series.

This is my Theory.

Quote from: VellorianI think you'll see Hasbro divest itself of D&D entirely before you'll see a 4.0.  

All the signs for them to do it are already present.

Seriously doubt that will happen.

While RPGs dont make much of a dent on the bottom line, Hasbro will nevr release the D&D property. Too much stuff that can be made from it, like computer games, mini games, CCGs, cartoons and so forth that are MUCH more valuable as part of the D&D IP than the gaming side is.

Chuck

Quote from: RPGPunditThey're always based on either your asinine prejudice against ___ or the ___, or they're based on your ridiculous petty personal preferences and wishful thinking.
You're only humiliating yourselves.

Hmm, why does this sound so familiar? LOL

Quote from: NicephorusHow many licenses have they actially spun off and when?  A couple of them were fairly early on. I suspect that they looked at TSR sales numbers for some lines and realized there is just a tiny hardcore audience.  

On the other things, that's why I expect D&D board games, computer games, miniatures, CPGs, with quiet attempts at a decent licensed cartoon to help push the lines.

Quote from: rpgobjectsChuckWhile RPGs dont make much of a dent on the bottom line, Hasbro will nevr release the D&D property. Too much stuff that can be made from it, like computer games, mini games, CCGs, cartoons and so forth that are MUCH more valuable as part of the D&D IP than the gaming side is.

I think we're talking about two different things.

You both seem to think I was talking about Hasbro selling off the license for D&D.  I'm talking about divesting themselves of the whole pen/paper RPG element and farming that off to other development houses.  Those are two very different things.

However, I think you'll see another RPG publishing house take over the publication and support of the next version of D&D (the mythical 4.0) before you'll see Hasbro develop it.  They might use the WotC name to produce it, but I'm leaning to a completely new, third party vendor.

Again, they'll retain the license for the much more lucrative markets: computer games, TCGs, miniatures and even cartoons/movies.

None of that has any bearing, however, on the subject at hand: the mythical D&D 4.0

Ok, when you said "divest...entirely"  that sounded like sell off.  

I can see spinning off any of the other bits even as big as FR, but allowing someone else to possibly fuck up something with the D&D name on it would impact the value of the brand.

Quote from: NicephorusOk, when you said "divest...entirely"  that sounded like sell off.  

I should have been clearer.  

Quote from: NicephorusI can see spinning off any of the other bits even as big as FR, but allowing someone else to possibly fuck up something with the D&D name on it would impact the value of the brand.

That's a good point.  As a business I can see them hiring a number of "qualified consultants" to work on the development of a new mechanic and then farming that out.  That's a distinct possibility for the mythical 4.0.

EDIT: I just had a flash, though.  What if they're whole plan is to move the mythical 4.0 to an online format.  Selling a service that includes the information normally contained in the books with a whole portfolio of tools and services that allow for them to control the product (the canon, anyway), sell access to it as a service and allow people to PnP RPG or Online RPG using the same system?  That way, they can capture the individual player, the GM of a group and the GMs players for a hatrick.  

Hang on, I need to send a proposal to Hasbro....

Quote from: jrientsCould some of these dire predictions actually be an attempt to jerk Wizards chain?  Some sort of PR assault, basically?

Well, obviously.

I mean, besides the fact that some of the common Swine like to push the whole "the sky is falling/WoTC are just evil corporate overlords" nonsense; for the higher ups like Pramas it serves as a kind of PR for the direction their companies are taking.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditWell, obviously.

I pitch you a softball and you drop "obviously" on my ass?  Sheesh.

Quote from: jrientsCould some of these dire predictions actually be an attempt to jerk Wizards chain?  Some sort of PR assault, basically?

It's actually bigger than that.

Two things happen when you announce a new edition of an RPG:

1. Fans stop buying, since they don't want to buy books that they can't use with the new edition.

2. Distributors and retailers stop buying, since they don't want to be stuck with dead stock.

The industry "professionals" who spread the rumors almost always had a new RPG in the pipeline that they were pegging a lot of their hopes on. Everyone seems to forget, but a lot of companies were betting their '06 strategies on 4.0 either announcing or releasing at GenCon.

Quote from: RPGPunditThey don't get that Wizards has as much risk of loss in a new edition as it has of gain; they are better off doing a "re-imaging" of D&D (with things like the new Basic set) and holding off on a new edition until its clear that its absolutely necessary.

If I had a stake in it, I think I'd be terrified at the prospect of coming up with a 4th Edition.  If you make it too different from 3rd (and previous editions), maybe people don't recognize it as "true" D&D, and they keep playing 3.X.  If you don't change it enough, maybe people don't see a compelling reason to throw out all their old books and starting again.

I don't think there's as much space to make a quantum change in the game and still have it recognizable as the traditional product (as there was prior to 3rd Edition).  Maybe I'm missing something, but I think D&D is at a crossroads from a design standpoint.  There's no guarantee that any approach will be marketable enough.

Quote from: mearls... The industry "professionals" who spread the rumors almost always had a new RPG in the pipeline that they were pegging a lot of their hopes on. Everyone seems to forget, but a lot of companies were betting their '06 strategies on 4.0 either announcing or releasing at GenCon.

That's interesting.  So you're suggesting that many companies wanted 4e to be announced/released last summer since that would cause a drop in demand for 3.5 products, and boost their own products?

Of course, it is rather foolish for any company to base their production strategies on wishful thinking.

As for generating the perception that 4e is imminent, and thereby boosting their sales that way, how many gamers pay attention to RPG message boards and rumours?  I'm sure some do, but I suspect that it's a very small fraction.

Quote from: AkrasiaThat's interesting.  So you're suggesting that many companies wanted 4e to be announced/released last summer since that would cause a drop in demand for 3.5 products, and boost their own products?

Of course, it is rather foolish for any company to base their production strategies on wishful thinking.

As for generating the perception that 4e is imminent, and thereby boosting their sales that way, how many gamers pay attention to RPG message boards and rumours?  I'm sure some do, but I suspect that it's a very small fraction.

It isn't gamers who are a problem. It's distributors. They would know that a new edition was coming and would make their orders with that in mind.

The announcement of a new edition serves a lot of needs. It lets us build excitement about the new game, but it also allows distributors to prepare for the changeover. No sane company wants to piss off its distributors and retailers. By the same token, it's in our best interest to inform people. We don't want new players buying stuff that they can't use in a few months. That just makes people angry.

I think there were a number of companies that were hoping for a 4e announcement. The smarter ones didn't bank on it. I doubt anyone bet everything on 4e. It was funny, though. A few people put a lot of effort into spreading rumors, and that caused other people to get caught up in the frenzy.

Quote from: RPGPunditthe common Swine

RPGPundit

Aside from simply being rude, what's the point of calling anyone who doesn't like D&D names like this?:rolleyes:

Quote from: PhishStyxAside from simply being rude, what's the point of calling anyone who doesn't like D&D names like this?:rolleyes:

RPGPundit can defend himself but I had to say that his term 'swine' is rather more specific than that.

Though I don't generally think his nasty acerbic childish shrill way of talking about the issue is helpfull (though it can be entertaining) I find myself on his side of it.