Hasbro is investing hugely on D&D, with a new Vice President. But the type of D&D they're hiring and investing for is not tabletop...
#dnd      #ttrpg  #osr 

Remarkably, this is so close to the take I've had since the moment they announced the One branding that I'm honestly shaken because I rarely tend to agree with very much of what the pundit has to say.

They're shooting to reproduce the gargantuan success they've had with MtG Arena, folks don't tend to pay attention to it since the gaming space is not very apt to pay attention to video games as many of us view them as being something altogether different but... the fact is, it's really not that different, especially since the BIG BOIs realized just how much money Apps can and DO make. The kind of cash they made in terms of raw profit from MtG Arena all by itself absolutely DWARFS the profit margins of literally every other product and IP they hold, and let me stress this, even when you sum 100% of the those profits from EVERY product line, it isn't even CLOSE. The sole exception to this whole "most exclusively profitable" thing is the money WotC rakes in from offering their trademarks to merch companies to sell shirts, stickers, candy, hats, and a million other things that they invest $0.00 of their own money to make while generating a lucrative percentage of sales.

Five years from now there are going to be 2-5x as many people actually playing "tabletop RPGs" via a smartphone or computer application than have cumulatively EVER played ANY and EVERY RPG that has ever been published in dead tree form. The writing is and has been on the wall, you can struggle against the tide but it will only ever pull you under if so, best to adapt and find a way to make a living off the new revenue streams. I will always personally prefer playing IN PERSON with friends but the reality is that this kind of game is going to be something like 1 in a thousand once the big virtual RPG market really takes hold, and it WILL take hold.

I already decided I'm not making ttrpgs, and this only cements my decision further.

They are going to invest in Digital, because they believe there will be more money in digital; and because it will also be easier to control the gaming content.  I will use the term Analog here, to refer to the original gaming experience; because music transitioned from Analog to Digital, and digital largely sucked.  Sure, there has been some neat digital music; but the old classic songs that have far outlived their creators, were created in analog.  Go listen to music from the 1960s and 1970s on vinyl.  It's a more sonically pleasing experience.

All Along the Watchtower
Whole Lotta Love
Hotel California
House of the Rising Sun
Etc.

I think this is a good thing for people that don't play 5e (and One D&D when it drops).

As One DnD morphs into a Fantasy X-Com... and becomes more self-involved with the digital space, it will pull its new fans into that realm, a WHOLE lot of people will eventually move on to other things (not TTRPG related). OR they will start looking at other TTRPGs that are new to them.

The fact of the matter is, for the vast majority of Non-WotC TTRPG's out there, the audience of games comes from GM's that poach D&D players from their tent and show them The Way. That is why all other TTRPG's will follow the line of infinite regression behind D&D... but One D&D is different. I suspect it's business model will make the D&D brand into something so significantly different there will be a big shuffling off of players that find it too restrictive or boardgamey.

This should have two effect: a slight dip in gamers overall, once the initial wave hits after One D&D drops. Then for us long-haul GM's and designers, if we play our cards right, we should be seeing a new blooming of space where gamers that don't leave the hobby completely, will actively look for other gaming experiences outside of D&D. This is an opportunity - not a bad thing. I'm not an OSR guy - but I can imagine the OSR could greatly benefit from this as long as they continue to do outreach.

If you play 5e. I can't help you. Enjoy 5e.

For non-D&D games going strong now? They should get stronger, to pick up that slack. At least that's what I'm hoping.

Quote from: DefNotAnInsiderNopeNoWay on October 11, 2022, 06:34:36 PM
Remarkably, this is so close to the take I've had since the moment they announced the One branding that I'm honestly shaken because I rarely tend to agree with very much of what the pundit has to say.

They're shooting to reproduce the gargantuan success they've had with MtG Arena, folks don't tend to pay attention to it since the gaming space is not very apt to pay attention to video games as many of us view them as being something altogether different but... the fact is, it's really not that different, especially since the BIG BOIs realized just how much money Apps can and DO make. The kind of cash they made in terms of raw profit from MtG Arena all by itself absolutely DWARFS the profit margins of literally every other product and IP they hold, and let me stress this, even when you sum 100% of the those profits from EVERY product line, it isn't even CLOSE. The sole exception to this whole "most exclusively profitable" thing is the money WotC rakes in from offering their trademarks to merch companies to sell shirts, stickers, candy, hats, and a million other things that they invest $0.00 of their own money to make while generating a lucrative percentage of sales.

Five years from now there are going to be 2-5x as many people actually playing "tabletop RPGs" via a smartphone or computer application than have cumulatively EVER played ANY and EVERY RPG that has ever been published in dead tree form. The writing is and has been on the wall, you can struggle against the tide but it will only ever pull you under if so, best to adapt and find a way to make a living off the new revenue streams. I will always personally prefer playing IN PERSON with friends but the reality is that this kind of game is going to be something like 1 in a thousand once the big virtual RPG market really takes hold, and it WILL take hold.

I remember when people were saying that MMORPGs would replace TTRPGs.

Really, people can play online all they like. For some, it's the only way they can play, and more power to them. I appreciate better tools and applications to that end.
But for myself, and apparently for you too, the experience is not the same.

It doesn't help that every attempt to date to create a digital table top is a graveyard of unfulfilled promises.

The thing they want, IMHO it now becomes clear, is physically written in the Title: One DnD

Not many, One:

One unified, seamless experience, the same exact system, across physical and virtual platforms.
No work-arounds, no custom home-brew, no house rules, and so on.

& to this end:
the rules are now being re-jigged.

Not to any specific play-requirements, not because "it's about time" (although there's some of that), not because these changes are what Reddit wants, or streamers want. Not because 5e stopped working.
Hence all the streamlining of mechanics, simplification, shared spell lists.

To fit in with a VTT.

And that means, the things in the game that can't be done on a digital platform, are going to have to go.

The first thing that comes to mind is illusion spells ... you can't create a 3D illusion of something in a VTT, unless that thing is already a game asset, ie .the 3d model of it is already sitting on your PC.....

Enjoyed the video.

I'm still not seeing it yet. I'll get to that in a second.

With respect to their new SVP, Microsoft executives are in high demand. They have a reputation for being able to work and build fast. Microsoft Dynamics 365 carries a huge variety of business tools to link company resources and provide various insights and inputs.

Good candidates are often notoriously difficult to hire away from Microsoft due to their willingness to immediately counteroffer/match talent they want to retain. In my experience you typically get one of three buckets 1) talent you overpay for... 2) talent Microsoft was willing to lose... or 3) talent that wants to escape the Microsoft culture—it is exhausting. By far, I see more of the first and third buckets as they are pretty good at smothering out untalented individuals. The occasional one does make it through the net.

Harvard and Marine is not a common combination. Living and working in multiple countries is also a good sign that identity politics and the such might be filed away accordingly. Naturally, only time will tell and there is not a lot of benefit in speculating.

Playing at the table with his kids is positive sign. A lot of gaming experiences have faded from memory—only natural as I have had many of them. But the ones that include introducing and playing the game with my kids and family have not. Helping my son prep for his D&D club game as DM has not. Anyone who has experienced these things knows it cannot be substituted in a VTT.

Back to what I'm not seeing...as the naming convention suggests, virtual table top and table top are different experiences, and one does not need to sacrifice one to have the other. From the quotes referenced in the video, nothing has mentioned fading out of the table top market. Everything referenced talks about growing the two along next to one another. Any executive who cares about their future and the future of the company would want to maximize all distribution channels. You only cannibalize one channel if by not doing so you sacrifice multiple.

Right after I post this, I'm going to ask that cat above me to show me the receipts on "No work-around, no custom home-brew, no house rules, and so on". So far, this has been nothing but conjecture without evidence. And while calling something "One" is associated with one true way-isms, and worse, it has become so prevalent that it can also simply mean an evergreen product.

Quote from: meireish on October 12, 2022, 07:38:47 AM
No work-arounds, no custom home-brew, no house rules, and so on.

Any direct evidence of this?

Two reasons I cannot take this on faith alone:

Chris Perkins is the primary designer behind the DMG for OneD&D. He has decades of experience expanding the base game. There are some really good interviews where he talks about how annoying he was with all of his Dragon submissions decades ago. Next, look at the ridiculous spectacle of the PAX game he led, which persisted across multiple versions of the game for nearly a decade. Homebrew everywhere. The Acquisitions Incorporated supplement is a near insane departure from the base 5e game. I would also encourage people to read some of Chris' DM advice. After spending a lifetime in this hobby expanding the game, I am supposed to believe he is going to consolidate.

D&D Beyond has spent years EXPANDING tools and homebrew capabilities. Since making their big purchase, WotC has only continued to expand. To remove functionality would be a complete change in direction. To date, you will not find a single word or press release saying they are looking to change direction of that product. You will only find mention of expansion.

Happy to be proven wrong if you have better sources than I do!

" I'm going to ask that cat above me to show me the receipts on "No work-around, no custom home-brew, no house rules, and so on".

No receipts no,

But because with a fully digital VTT, ie more like a 3d or isometric mmo, rather than just "skype +map-sharing",
if you want some homebrew, the system will have to
a. allow mods
b. you'll have to code it.

EDIT: I'd just like to stress, that I meant "no homebrew mechanics", not "no-one gets to write/use/publish adventures", adventures will definitely be allowed

I expect to see is some attempt at OneDND integrated with the Adventurer's League and an effort to push players into AL-style gaming with strangers. That might be okay for a few sessions but in my experience this is an unsatisfying level of play.

If they're smart & devious then you might end up being able to take content entered by creative DMs and repackaging it as DLC. Although this has the danger of veering into 3.X and 4-style unmanageable bloat.

Fundamentally I don't think there is a clear winning strategy for OneDND. All of the major strategies have already been tried by other VTTs. And there's enough groups out there now using other VTTs, all with their own features. Switching to use WOTCs product and toolset has a real cost if you've built a campaign in Roll20 or similar. I do think it's plausible if WOTC tries to screw these VTTs, then you might see a 4E/Pathfinder situation again.

I don't think there's much of a future for any ttrpgs owned by non-ttrpg companies. They're definitely going to whore out their IPs for mobile gaming and so on. And if that doesn't work then they'll just let those IPs die. We've seen this with examples like Rackham being bought out by Cyanide: their IPs got two attempts at video games before being abandoned completely.

They are creating something new. Not a tabletop RPG but not an MMO. This might be ideal for isolated gamers. It might be like popping into an MMO but there is a human brain behind much of it so its not just fighting. It may be an even better for bringing in newbies than current models. It will probably live alongside tabletop RPG as the experience will be so different.

It may be really great for whichever games fill the vacuum that is likely to develop in the table-top space when the Coastal Wizards concentrate on digital.

The issue is that One D&D will define for players what "RPG's" are. And due to the experience it will deliver via the VTT medium, will *become* what ongoing players will claim is D&D (and to them - RPG's writ-large because it will likely be all they know). But for all other TTRPG's that aren't engaged in that medium - they will be "something else".

To those of us that do not play D&D/use VTT's - they are the ones mutating into something else. And it will be a different experience. I'm not against it at all. I actually encourage it. I see this as D&D becoming its own hobby entirely. Like playing Total War on your PC isn't the same thing as playing WHFRP.

And that's okay (at least this is how I see it). Your favorite brand of D&D is only dead if you stop playing it. Whatever it becomes was not intended for you if you don't want it.

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 10:48:37 AM
The issue is that One D&D will define for players what "RPG's" are. And due to the experience it will deliver via the VTT medium, will *become* what ongoing players will claim is D&D (and to them - RPG's writ-large because it will likely be all they know). But for all other TTRPG's that aren't engaged in that medium - they will be "something else".

Well, we already lived through that once -- which is where the "TT" in "TTRPG" came from in the first place. Like you, I don't mind other types of RPGs existing, but it's a little annoying that the OG of RPG types has to include a qualifier in common parlance.