Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 02:38:15 PM

Quote from: ForgottenF on October 12, 2022, 01:47:11 PM
I wonder if there's good statistics on that, because my experience is the opposite. I had never played in or a run a published module until very recently, and none of the players I grew up around ever used them (for context, I started playing around the year 2000, and most of the players I know in real life fit comfortably into the "nu-school" category (many, but not all, of them still play 5e)). What I've seen on the internet indicates that while 5e modules have a higher presence than 3rd or 4th edition ones did, they're still a minority amongst the actually running campaigns out there.

I suppose you could be right. My experience is most of the locals here - and TTRPG's in Dallas is *very* active. My local FLGS is *immense* (Madness Comics - it's a former Walmart turned into a Temple of Nerdery. It's like a convention there everyday, at least pre-Covid) and it's a sea of people running all the 5e campaigns modules. Homebrewing is a staple for a certain breed of GM that wants to game a bit deeper. While D&D has always had that cache of being the first big game on the scene... 5e has not been good at curating GMing to go offroading. I don't have numbers, but I'm willing to bet the majority of games are very casual, and I don't see a lot of games advertising actual Homebrew settings around here very much. There are definitely groups running modules aplenty.

That's where my own selection bias might be showing. I almost never even walk into a gaming store, let alone sit down and play a game. I was fortunate enough to grow up in a town with a high per-capita nerd population, so I played exclusively in home-games with friends and acquaintances for decades, until recently when I switched to online.

I would guess that modules are over-represented at public games, game stores, conventions, etc, because they allow you to sit down and play with strangers while still having a reasonable idea of what to expect. Meanwhile, homebrew is probably much more common with home games and long-running players. Online, it seems like modules are still slightly over-represented (likely for the same reason), but maybe not as much as they are in official spaces.

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 02:38:15 PM
This is what I'm counting on. I *want* GM's that Homebrew to break away from the D&D experience. I want them to make their homebrew settings on other systems. I want the TTRPG field to have maximal fertility and it *demands* GM's that want to run their own games and design their own content. We're the rarest of the breed and I see 1D&D as an opportunity. I look at it as the Alien Invasion is going to conclude and the Aliens are off to go play their own new games elsewhere. We, who represent the rest of TTRPG's that want better gaming can continue on and if we do it right create something better together. Or you know... keep slapboxing about our favorite gaming systems. At least, hopefully we won't have to deal with post-modern politics as part of some strain of the hobby. That beast will have moved on.

I mostly agree with you there. I'm not even as concerned about the possibility of OneD&D setting bad expectations as some people are. In my experience, the kind of person who is going to want to seek out a freer, more customizable experience doesn't often need to be told it's an option. They'll see the potential for themselves just by looking at D&D and noticing it's flaws. Even before the internet, people who were unsatisfied with D&D managed to find out about Call of Cthulhu, Vampire, etc. Nowadays that's easier than ever. Even if Hasbro manages to lock down the D&D ecosystem, they're a long way away from being able to control Youtube, forums, etc.

Honestly, OneD&D is going to crash and burn, but not really because of any of the stuff talked about here.  Let's define what "OneD&D" is being presented as, at least when it comes to VTT: a tighter integration between the rules-system and the VTT experience.  I've seen conjecture that this might go as far as creating a more expansive VTT (like 3D models, pre-programmed rules, character sheets, implementations, etc.).  Let's also assume that this is at least partly true.

The problem here is scope.  As someone running two 5e campaigns for different groups right now, one live and one electronic via VTT, I can tell you that the VTT takes more prep time than the live game by far... and I built terrain and paint models for the live game!  A VTT option can work when you have pre-packaged modules that are run exactly as written, with no homebrew rules, classes, or items.  But as soon as you start adding, manipulating, changing the content, you are now faced with doing so in the VTT using its interface and tools.  And, I cannot stress enough, the time and effort to create a triple-A product (which it would take for WotC to dominate the VTT market) is far beyond the capabilities, much less the desire, of most players and GMs.

Seriously, even something easy like adding a map to roll20 becomes way harder once you want to use dynamic lighting and linked character sheets, and those are well-supported operations in the software.  If WotC decides to "MMO" their VTT, the sheer difficulty of adding a single terrain with props, triggers, etc. will be way more prep than the average DM will want to do.  A good example is the video game "Solasta", which has a built-in toolset for building adventures.  The toolset is good, and pretty robust, and you'll end up spending three times more time in creating your adventure than it takes to play it...

So this will basically leave one of several outcomes for WotC.  If they simply build a VTT with all of the present rules, campaigns, items, etc., integrated (sort of a DnDBeyond on steroids), they face the difficulty of moving people away from present VTTs that people have already invested time and money in.  If they make "OneD&D" the only VTT option (via licensing restrictions, etc.), then they will lose a huge chunk of players who will stick with what they know and be willing to keep playing 5e (4e redux).  And if they create an elaborate "MMO" VTT, most players will only find it useful for running pre-published material, because of the difficulty of creating new content.  And it's not like WotC has been pumping out modules at a breakneck pace to this point (now add all the extra effort to put that in the VTT...).

So I just don't see how this works out well for them.  Not if they are trying to capture the VTT market for all that sweet micro-transaction money...

Anecdote is not data caveat ... but my experience is that the group more likely to be attracted to the OneD&D platform is Millennials and a slice of their parents.  Zoomers seem to show a streak of reaction to the excesses of the day.  And really digging deep into my anecdotes, they are also more interested in the more old-school aspects of the games I'm running than their immediate predecessors.   It's a pretty small set of anecdote, but it's 100% of the Zoomers all in, 100% of the Millennials all out, and about 50/50 on the Gen Y, Z, or whatever the heck is the trendy word for that prior group.  And that's out of about 20 people.

Quote from: Eirikrautha on October 12, 2022, 03:26:56 PM
Honestly, OneD&D is going to crash and burn, but not really because of any of the stuff talked about here.  Let's define what "OneD&D" is being presented as, at least when it comes to VTT: a tighter integration between the rules-system and the VTT experience.  I've seen conjecture that this might go as far as creating a more expansive VTT (like 3D models, pre-programmed rules, character sheets, implementations, etc.).  Let's also assume that this is at least partly true.

...

I agree with all of that with one exception:  There are different kinds of crash and burn.  From Hindenburg/Titanic to Netscape/AOL all the way to things that do a slow-motion crash over decades and then do another slow burn for 5 years after that.  If the crash is slow enough, they might even pull out--which is the difference between IBM and Sears, for example. 

Another possibility is the Civilization PC game analogy.  There's been six major versions and numerous spin-offs.  There aren't many people who really enjoyed Civ II who also enjoy Civ V, let alone Civ VI.  It's arguably not the same game anymore except for the subject material and a few traditions (e.g. Romans and Indian being in the first set of each new version.)  That's not nearly as extreme as what OneD&D is trying here, and it is over a shorter time frame compared to OD&D to current, yet the audience for the original is gone.

Quote from: Steven Mitchell on October 12, 2022, 03:39:38 PM

Quote from: Eirikrautha on October 12, 2022, 03:26:56 PM
Honestly, OneD&D is going to crash and burn, but not really because of any of the stuff talked about here.  Let's define what "OneD&D" is being presented as, at least when it comes to VTT: a tighter integration between the rules-system and the VTT experience.  I've seen conjecture that this might go as far as creating a more expansive VTT (like 3D models, pre-programmed rules, character sheets, implementations, etc.).  Let's also assume that this is at least partly true.

...

I agree with all of that with one exception:  There are different kinds of crash and burn.  From Hindenburg/Titanic to Netscape/AOL all the way to things that do a slow-motion crash over decades and then do another slow burn for 5 years after that.  If the crash is slow enough, they might even pull out--which is the difference between IBM and Sears, for example. 

Another possibility is the Civilization PC game analogy.  There's been six major versions and numerous spin-offs.  There aren't many people who really enjoyed Civ II who also enjoy Civ V, let alone Civ VI.  It's arguably not the same game anymore except for the subject material and a few traditions (e.g. Romans and Indian being in the first set of each new version.)  That's not nearly as extreme as what OneD&D is trying here, and it is over a shorter time frame compared to OD&D to current, yet the audience for the original is gone.

I hear you on the Civ thing--enjoyed every version from I through IV, but V & VI left me cold.  In RPG terms, I think D&D 4e was the same thing--it really turned people off, so much that (briefly) WOTC lost the market lead to Paizo.  It was a different game.

TTRPGs are a different thing than VTTRPG, though of course some will be interested in both (and far more people will be interested in neither).  But FWIW, if I want to be on the computer, I'd probably pay Skyrim or something made for that environment, and not a VTTRPG experience.  It seems to me that VTTRPGs are sort of "making the best of people not being in the same room" rather than the experience that is sought in and of itself.  In most every case, I'd rather be with a group of warm bodies in a room than virtual heads on the internet.

I believe there will always be good gaming going on; outside of the latest and greatest edition of WOTC D&D.  Especially, outside of WOTC's published adventures.  I also believe there will always be division, in what is called the OSR.  If only the OSR could experience a strong sense of unity.  I guess the closest thing to unity, is the popularity of B/X variants.

Quote from: Jam The MF on October 12, 2022, 05:57:14 PM
I believe there will always be good gaming going on; outside of the latest and greatest edition of WOTC D&D.  Especially, outside of WOTC's published adventures.  I also believe there will always be division, in what is called the OSR.  If only the OSR could experience a strong sense of unity.  I guess the closest thing to unity, is the popularity of B/X variants.

Why?  The OSR really is diverse, in the meaningful sense of the term, not the woke version.  In fact, it's so diverse that it is barely a thing.  That's it's best feature.  Getting away from "unity" is part of the reason to get away from WotC.

Quote from: Steven Mitchell on October 12, 2022, 03:30:17 PM
Anecdote is not data caveat ... but my experience is that the group more likely to be attracted to the OneD&D platform is Millennials and a slice of their parents.  Zoomers seem to show a streak of reaction to the excesses of the day.  And really digging deep into my anecdotes, they are also more interested in the more old-school aspects of the games I'm running than their immediate predecessors.

Ditto here, as far as anecdotal experience goes. My latest Gen Z player wanted to make absolutely sure that "resource management" was taken seriously in our game before he joined.

Quote from: Steven Mitchell on October 12, 2022, 03:30:17 PMIt's a pretty small set of anecdote, but it's 100% of the Zoomers all in, 100% of the Millennials all out, and about 50/50 on the Gen Y, Z, or whatever the heck is the trendy word for that prior group.  And that's out of about 20 people.

Gen Y and Gen Z are the aforementioned Millennials and Zoomers respectively. The prior generation is Gen X.

This lady has some interesting points about the One D&D VTT:

Granted, based on a few things she says; I don't think that she'd willingly appear on Inappropriate Characters anytime this century.

But she does make some good points about how WotC is actively trying to bring in monetization practices from the videogame industry.

I suspect they don't care as much about past users and expect to bring in a lot of new users.

Imagine your a kid who has wanted to play D&D and on a whim you go to the Wizard site and they've got a stable of DMs with a game starting every hour or so. You can jump in and play. The virtual tabletop has more of a wow factor than looking at a table with player sheets and die so you're impressed and have a good enough time you'll come back for more.

I believe that is what they are counting on. Of course I could be wrong or I could be right and they are wrong about how many players would be drawn in that way.

I'm curious how they'll manage Critical Role.

Quote from: Ruprecht on October 12, 2022, 10:36:09 AM
They are creating something new. Not a tabletop RPG but not an MMO. This might be ideal for isolated gamers. It might be like popping into an MMO but there is a human brain behind much of it so its not just fighting. It may be an even better for bringing in newbies than current models. It will probably live alongside tabletop RPG as the experience will be so different.

It may be really great for whichever games fill the vacuum that is likely to develop in the table-top space when the Coastal Wizards concentrate on digital.

Thing is. This is not anything new. Theres been these things for like 20 years now and even further back to the original Neverwinter Online where DM staff could creat some things on the fly. Rudimentary and oft simplistic, but there and things only got more adaptable as others tried their hand at some sort of VTT like the old WebRPG system way back in 1999. That was all text if I recall right. But. You could adapt it to about any system. I used it to run Dragon Storm sessions with a few customers and other users had gurps going on it and WOD games. For something so old it was a heck of alot user friendly than 'modern' VTTs have been.

Quote from: DefNotAnInsiderNopeNoWay on October 11, 2022, 06:34:36 PMFive years from now there are going to be 2-5x as many people actually playing "tabletop RPGs" via a smartphone or computer application than have cumulatively EVER played ANY and EVERY RPG that has ever been published in dead tree form. The writing is and has been on the wall, you can struggle against the tide but it will only ever pull you under if so, best to adapt and find a way to make a living off the new revenue streams. I will always personally prefer playing IN PERSON with friends but the reality is that this kind of game is going to be something like 1 in a thousand once the big virtual RPG market really takes hold, and it WILL take hold.

Not going to happen. Don't get me wrong Wizards/Hasbro will come out with something that is D&D branded and it will be popular but it won't supplant tabletop RPGs. It will just become is own unique niche in the same way CRPGS grew from being D&D on the computer into their own thing by the late nineties.

Why? Because the foundation of tabletop RPG is the flexibility that is created by it's core mechanics. The loop between description and adjudication between the referee and players. I played CRPGS, MMORPGS, and LARPS since the 80s and nothing matches Tabletop RPGs flexibility. There are good reasons why CRPGs and MMORPGS grew to be way larger hobbies than TTRPGS. They are easier to get into and more convenient but their limitations along with the limitations of other types of roleplaying games like LARPS are why TTRPGS continue to thrive and prosper.

The hobby will likely shrink but that will be more a result of being in the midst of a fad right now. Those on the fringe will find adjacent hobbies more appealing including whatever scheme Hasbro adopts for One D&D. But for the hobby itself, hobbyists are quite capable of taking care of things and keep it and its industry going and growing. The barriers are low and there there is a wealth of open content for the most popular systems if WIzards decide on doing something that is not tabletop roleplaying.

Keep in mind we are at this point right now despite computer gaming being more spectacular and popular than ever before. We can survive and more importantly thrive Wizards having another brain fart.

Quote from: Omega on October 12, 2022, 11:28:43 PM
Thing is. This is not anything new. Theres been these things for like 20 years now and even further back to the original Neverwinter Online where DM staff could creat some things on the fly.

Yup even ran a campaign with NWN when the community got the server side of things sorted out.

Based on that experience and modding games in general, my prediction is that whatever Wizards winds up doing the most likely outcome will be that it occupies the same niche for VTTs as Dwarven Forge does for face-to-face. Something that looks great, but its nuances and costs limit its appeal. I think what Wizards makes will be more popular and easier to use than DF. But the steep learning curve of dealing with 3D stuff let alone creating them means to use it to the fullest will take more time than most have for a hobby. And the pre-canned stuff will prove too stifling in the long run.

But it may prove to be a dominant VTT if they get the standard VTT features working well alongside the 3D stuff. But there the fact it will be a one-note wonder supporting a single edition, One D&D, will limit its appeal.

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 11:54:14 AM
... They're trying to be like Apple and create a "D&D Ecosystem" where DM's will invest in all their virtual tchotchkes, and be reluctant to stray out of that ecosystem. And I'm going to put a spin on the "lot of DM's not being satisfied with VTT's". I think WotC doesn't *care* about those DM's... and you prove my point below...

... MOST DM's do not homebrew. Most DM's in 5e run only modules. If a DM leaves OneD&D's new ecosystem, if they play their cards right, this new version of D&D will groom players to engage in what is going to be basically a big X-Com game that requires very little if any actual DMing experience. I think they believe they'll capture players and groom them into believing *this* is what RPG's are about.

I think that WotC devs know that 6 session "campaigns" do not reliably turn casual players into the RPG hobbyists that GM games.

Like I said in another thread; they want to make it so "anyone can GM". i.e.  AP's and adventures made so that almost anyone can jump in and be a 'paint by the numbers' "GM".

They want to take all the heavy lifting out of GMing to 'democratize' it so that they can keep the player base plugged-in oneVTT.

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 02:38:15 PM
...
I'm hopeful it fails massively OR it succeeds massively. ...

If it fails massively WotC can just regroup a few years down the road, still retaining its dominant network effect the whole time. An epic failure of the oneVTT is not a death blow to the one true game. It's just a speed bump.

Which is why I fall strongly into the hoping it succeeds massively camp.


Because:

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 12:37:47 AM
I think this is a good thing for people that don't play 5e (and One D&D when it drops).

As One DnD morphs into a Fantasy X-Com... and becomes more self-involved with the digital space, it will pull its new fans into that realm, a WHOLE lot of people will eventually move on to other things (not TTRPG related). OR they will start looking at other TTRPGs that are new to them.

The faster WotC D&D disappears up its own ass the better it is for the RPG hobby as a whole.

Quote from: tenbones on October 12, 2022, 12:37:47 AM
The fact of the matter is, for the vast majority of Non-WotC TTRPG's out there, the audience of games comes from GM's that poach D&D players from their tent and show them The Way. That is why all other TTRPG's will follow the line of infinite regression behind D&D... but One D&D is different. I suspect it's business model will make the D&D brand into something so significantly different there will be a big shuffling off of players that find it too restrictive or boardgamey.

This should have two effect: a slight dip in gamers overall, once the initial wave hits after One D&D drops. Then for us long-haul GM's and designers, if we play our cards right, we should be seeing a new blooming of space where gamers that don't leave the hobby completely, will actively look for other gaming experiences outside of D&D. This is an opportunity - not a bad thing.
...

I think that there is great opportunity here for a better #2 RPG to WotC D&D to arise that is not made by Baizuo.

But it will very much be a long game scenario.

I find that this blog post sums up a lot of my feeling on the matter:

I'm Looking For My People, Not More People.
https://grumpywizard.home.blog/2022/09/22/more-vs-better/

Quote from: ForgottenF on October 12, 2022, 01:47:11 PM
...
There are a few problems with published modules that WOTC is never going to overcome. One is that very few people are going to want to play them more than once. But the bigger issue is that the chief appeal of DM-ing, even to the nu-schoolers (in fact perhaps more so), is the opportunity it grants for unfettered creativity. You just don't get that with published material.
...

Not so sure about this. Even in the AD&D era many people have talked about how they ran certain modules multiple times, and played modules multiple times under different GM's.

In the oneVTT environment I can easily see players adopting more of a video gamer mentality about 'beating' certain adventures/ modules in different ways...

did they announce the kind of things they would sell with micropayment in such? Historically the problem with Table Top games is you sell product to the DM not the players (at least until splat books tried to change that). This could be an attempt to get more out of players if thy sell you nicer avatars and such.