Maybe I'm just feeling pissed off at the fact that I'm paying hundreds of dollars more for my airline ticket, but really: the price of oil isn't going to go back down. I mean, it might dip a little, but it won't go back down below 100, and even if some compensatory actions cause the price to dip a bit, sooner or later it will keep rising, and will only ever keep rising.

Meanwhile, the worldwide cost of food has gone up 40%, in part because of the use of biofuels as a desperate measure to try to offset oil costs, and partly because of the high price of oil itself, increasing transport costs.

I mean honestly, how long can civilization itself handle a never-ending increase in oil prices? And is that even the bigger problem, or will food riots and mass starvation get us first?

The theory some claim to be working on is that at some vague time when the market can no longer viably manage the cost of oil, then alternate energy will somehow kick in; only won't it be far too late by that time, if you don't actually have the development of alternate energy sources going on, and the infrastructure being created for it all, right now?

These last few weeks I've been increasingly feeling flashbacks to what it must have been like in Rome around 470 AD; everyone was just going about their business normally, even as things were very slowly getting worse and worse, but no one would have imagined that within six years the western Roman Empire would cease to exist.

So, can anyone explain to me how we're going to get out of this one?

RPGPundit

The biofuels is a bogus claim. The total market (worldwide) for biofuels is less than what Exxon makes in profits in a single year.

What is the bogus part of the claim?  It may be a small part of the market (though not in Brazil), but the switch of food crops over to biofuel has had an impact on food prices.

I think your fears may be correct, RPGPundit, but the media fuels a lot of fear as well, such that every major change is seen as potentially the end.

Has it made an impact? Yes.
Is it THE reason why prices are going up? No.

India and China are eating more and better (Bush was rather indelicate about that, but he had a point), the dollar is losing value (so prices in dollars, like oil, go up), etc... These are far more relevant factors to the rise in food costs.

Biofuels is the new scarecrow wielded by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.

It's not totally bogus, no, but biofuels are being disproportionately demonised for the sudden world food crisis.  The crisis is due in part to poor crop yields over the last year, globalised food production (instead of local food production) that relies on trans-oceanic and trans-continental transport, an increased demand for labor-intensive food products among the growing middle classes in China and India (meat, that is), the tanking of the US Dollar which has turned investors away from speculation in US currency and toward more traditional investments like oil and crop futures.  More speculation in oil and food means higher prices for both, which leads to higher costs for farming and transportation, which again leads to higher prices for produce, which was already on the rise due to relative scarcity and increased demand.

I'm not thinking Rome c.470 -- I'm thinking Soviet Union c.1991, where a forced, regionalised economy collapsed when the overarching superstructure that insured its continued function lost influence.  I think we're seeing the potential collapse of the 15-20 year experiment with globalisation, an experiment that is predicated on gross consumerism, and has enriched a very small few at the expense of a very great many.

Yeah, I worry, too, Pundy.

!i!

Quote from: RPGPunditSo, can anyone explain to me how we're going to get out of this one?

I don't know exactly how it'll be done, but I have a few ideas:

• Refute consumerism - "More Choice!" is not better, and shouldn't be the hallmark of affluent society.  You just plain don't need a bunch of cheap, disposible shit that was produced on the other side of the planet. And get over yourselves!  No one needs a three-car garage, four cars, one speedboat and two jet skis that are 100 miles from the nearest water, an a television in every room to feel affluent and important.
• Refute globalism - Stop producing cheap, throw-away shit on the other side of the planet just because it's inexpensive to do so.  Encourage local economies that serve local investors, workers, and consumers.  By all means, embrace the world as your neighbors and trading partners, but concentrate on goods and services locally.
• Refute oil - Stop traveling around so much just because you feel like it.  Stop transporting stuff all the way around the world just because the numbers work out on a cost/benefit spreadsheet.  Start investing in alternative energy sources and transportation methods.

I can think of a few others, but those are the big three.  Sadly, I fear that the only thing that will get people to take them seriously is if the carpet is yanked out from under everyone suddenly and (more or less) equally.

!i!

I'm becoming increasingly concerned with cultural devolution (I watched the movie Idiocracy again last night.  Definitely worth seeing.) as well as what the cost of fuel will mean to the cost of *everything* including food.

Alternate energy is a good idea, but I don't think we're doing enough with it yet -- or the technology simply isn't there to make it as efficient as we need it to be. In Ontario we get 11,258 MW from Nuclear power, and 10,182 MW from coal.  5 new wind farms (I think they're mostly finished now) will add 354.6 MW and 2 Biomass plants will add 6 MW.  The 2 solar plants contribute less than 1 MW.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaI don't know exactly how it'll be done, but I have a few ideas:

• Refute consumerism - "More Choice!" is not better, and shouldn't be the hallmark of affluent society.  You just plain don't need a bunch of cheap, disposible shit that was produced on the other side of the planet. And get over yourselves!  No one needs a three-car garage, four cars, one speedboat and two jet skis that are 100 miles from the nearest water, an a television in every room to feel affluent and important.
• Refute globalism - Stop producing cheap, throw-away shit on the other side of the planet just because it's inexpensive to do so.  Encourage local economies that serve local investors, workers, and consumers.  By all means, embrace the world as your neighbors and trading partners, but concentrate on goods and services locally.
• Refute oil - Stop traveling around so much just because you feel like it.  Stop transporting stuff all the way around the world just because the numbers work out on a cost/benefit spreadsheet.  Start investing in alternative energy sources and transportation methods.

I can think of a few others, but those are the big three.  Sadly, I fear that the only thing that will get people to take them seriously is if the carpet is yanked out from under everyone suddenly and (more or less) equally.

!i!

Watch the market take care of all three. How fast remains to be seen. The faster, the better, IMHO. But I'd be loathe to have it happen in any way other than the market forcing people to make these choices.

At least, here in the US I would. I know you crazy ferners do things in other mysterious cultish ways...

Quote from: StuartAlternate energy is a good idea, but I don't think we're doing enough with it yet -- or the technology simply isn't there to make it as efficient as we need it to be. In Ontario we get 11,258 MW from Nuclear power, and 10,182 MW from coal.  5 new wind farms (I think they're mostly finished now) will add 354.6 MW and 2 Biomass plants will add 6 MW.  The 2 solar plants contribute less than 1 MW.

Tony wants fusion.

Not that my wanting it will make it practicable any sooner (if ever).  I just wanted to point out that ever since visiting MITs fusion laboratory, I've wanted to see some intellectual descendant of a Tokamak hit even 100.001% return on energy invested.

Of course, Tony also wants a deliberate restructuring of US cities to more effectively support and encourage pedestrian culture (to the intentional detriment of vehicular travel), so fusion is only one of my many pipe dreams

Quote from: James J SkachWatch the market take care of all three. How fast remains to be seen. The faster, the better, IMHO. But I'd be loathe to have it happen in any way other than the market forcing people to make these choices.

At least, here in the US I would. I know you crazy ferners do things in other mysterious cultish ways...

As someone whose witnessed first hand what the "market" did for utilities after the deregulation craze, you'll forgive me if my faith in the magical powers of the Great Capitilist in the Sky is less than solid.

Speculative frenzy always reaches a peak before the bubble bursts.

Quote from: James J SkachWatch the market take care of all three.

Yes, but "take care of" could manifest as anything from "cuddle with angora mittens" to "raze to the ground and sow with salt".  Controlled descent is always better than free-fall.

Quote from: Elliot WilenSpeculative frenzy always reaches a peak before the bubble bursts.

Point taken, but what will be the result of the bursting bubble?  And is this merely speculation on oil, or also speculation on food commodities?

!i!

It's not apocalypse, only the end of the world as we know it.

Quote from: EngineIt's not apocalypse, only the end of the world as we know it.

But then, what isn't?

Quote from: TonyLBBut then, what isn't?

You know, I wanted to say something about that, about how the world is constantly evolving and only the people alive at a given time see their time as being particularly unique, as a rule, but I really do think that many of the issues being raised are leading to [yet another] paradigm shift in the way of life for billions of people on the planet.

So it's not quite "just another time," but it's sure as hell nothing new, as you say.