No. I've no idea what'll happen to Paizo in particular. A company can have a product everyone wants and yet still fuck things up. I mean, look at Enron. It's not like people suddenly stopped wanting electricity.

My answer about Paizo is: I don't know. But rpgs in general will go on either way.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095440While I agree with the rest of your post, I don't agree with this. I do think their measuring a statistically valid sample.  I believe we long ago established the number they're getting reports from is well beyond what's needed to claim their measurements are statistically relevant and with a reasonable margin of error.

There's no consistency or reliability to their reporting sources.

A retailer may report numbers to them one month, and not the next.

ICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Grognards predict that a new edition of a game will fail. News at 5.

I doubt Pathfinder will ever return to its high-water mark of pre-5E popularity. But PF2 will probably see it maintain its status as a strong second-tier RPG publisher. There will always be a market for a more crunchy char-op D&D variant with top-notch production values. Not a huge market, but a viable one. In today's RPG scene, probably the biggest thing holding Pathfinder back isn't the mechanics or a new edition. It's the paucity of live-streaming, podcasts, and Youtube content creators playing the game. They have Glass Cannon and that's about it.

Actually, there's a "path" for Pathfinder 2e to be a success.

We have been told 5e has brought in a new generation of gamers.

5e is several years old now. It's the "been there, done that" game now. PF2e would be the "new hotness".

As with any group of gamers, some will prefer more or less rules crunch. Who knows the breakdown either way, but we know both groups exist.

Those 5e players wanting more crunch *might* be excited by what PF2e offers them.

If this "massive new RPG fanbase" exists beyond watching YT streams, then maybe Paizo will sell lots of books.

Maybe not 5e or PF1e level sales, but maybe quite good enough sales to keep being a company of worthless PC shitbags for another decade.

Quote from: Haffrung;1095655Grognards predict that a new edition of a game will fail. News at 5.

That will never change it is the absolute 1000% that it will fail simply because they don't like it. As apparently everyone else fees like them 1000% as well when it comes to rpgs.

Paizo is selling 5E material in small amounts for now. Other gaming products such as dice and maps and critical/fumble decks. I agree sales will not be like they were for 1E. The absolute failure some say it is not by a long shot.

Quote from: kythri;1095527There's no consistency or reliability to their reporting sources.

Uh, there is though?

QuoteA retailer may report numbers to them one month, and not the next.

Except the overwhelming majority is the same set over and over again, using the same tried and true methodology for comic book retailers which has been independently verified by the distributors?

QuoteICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Except they are?

Seriously it sounds like you have no idea what their methodology actually is so you just substituted your guesses for facts and stated it that way.

Quote from: kythri;1095527...
ICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Quote from: Mistwell;1096084...

Seriously it sounds like you have no idea what their methodology actually is so you just substituted your guesses for facts and stated it that way.

Now be honest kuthri, were you just making stuff up? Come on... you can tell us... It's ok.

Quote from: trechriron;1096087Now be honest kuthri, were you just making stuff up? Come on... you can tell us... It's ok.

Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Quote from: kythri;1096103Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Alright you two - I've had it! Someone post some goddamned evidence or you both are on TIME OUT!!

Premature speculation is kind of a young guy's problem. At least they're ready to go again a short time later.

Quote from: kythri;1096103Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Show me any evidence, any evidence at all, that their sampling is not large, or not diverse, or in any way based on confirmation bias. You made the claim, so let's see it.

For my part they said their methodology is the same one used for comics (often the same stores but not exclusively), and that matches Diamond Comics distributor numbers within a margin of error, so there was an objective outside check on their reporting. I can try and dig up those articles, but they're behind a paywall and over a year old (I used to represent ComicBookResources.com and had access to that data, but I don't represent them anymore since the sold). For what it's worth the reports we are used to seeing are not their main reports they're just summaries of the actual Internal Correspondence issues and the Pro issues.  Their data is gathered from four sources: retailers reports, distributor data, and manufacturer data, and kickstarter data.  Three of those four are verifiable from outside. Only the retailer interviews is not verifiable, but I don't know why you'd discount based on that since the distributor data alone is telling you more than 80% of the story.

Welp after getting my copy of the first issue of 2nd editions ap (Although not interested in 2e itself was hoping I'd be able to convert to 1E) I'm gonna say it really is not looking good.

How so?

Quote from: Kevin197;1096362Welp after getting my copy of the first issue of 2nd editions ap (Although not interested in 2e itself was hoping I'd be able to convert to 1E) I'm gonna say it really is not looking good.

Come on, just a couple of spoilers.

Well I dont like the layout, the art ranges from good to really meh, The overarching plot is not that great and kinda dosent make much sense and ruins a character ive been waiting for information on for almost 10 years. Then there is whats happend to the goblins. A tribe of em are put into the adventure as the main hook (There a good tribe of goblins because reasons) and it just feels weird and forced (In order to make them workable as a good tribe pretty much have to strip out everything that makes Golarion goblins well golarion goblins afterwards they may as well just be halflings into big ear and green paint cosplay)