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There is a famous saying among Economists that they have successfully predicted 9 of the last 5 Economic Recessions.

Likewise Gamers have been predicting the end of Paizo and Pathfinder since the beginning of Paizo.  I am confident that there is one person here who predicted the end even before it began.  I have heard all of the reasons why this year was going to be the final year.  And if not this year then surely it would be the next.  And every year Paizo just keeps on Paizoing.  Pathfinder is too bloated, they make more.  Paizo can not make new games, they make new games.  While WotC is falling down the big purple juggernaut just keeps on trampling.

So come on, here is your chance to be the first to correctly call the end of Paizo.  And I dont mean some kind of airy fairy some where in the future before the heat death of the Universe.  Be specific, make your best prediction and dont be like all those other losers grumbling into their neck beards.

The grand prediction list:

Thursday 11 July 2019 - GeekyBugle

August 2020 - Ratman_tf, tenbones
December 2020 - Scrivener of Doom

2025 - deadDMwalking (extra XP if the whole of Seattle gets taken out at the same time)
2029ish - Steven Mitchell
2030 - TreChriron


No Failure:
Mistwell
kythri
Theory of Games
Kyle Aaron

For reasons I don't share, many gamers liked 3e. Paizo is the 3e company, and unless they go too far afield from 3e with PF2e, they will continue to chug along.

However, if PF2e is a bridge too far for 3e fans, then Paizo could be in trouble. We'll know that in about a year past the PF2e release.

Of course, the big predictor for Paizo's continued longevity really depends on how they market and license their IP beyond RPGs. AKA, successful board games, card games, underwear and video games.

Quote from: Shasarak;1095066The grand prediction list:

I'm not going to give any specific dates, but I would honestly not be surprised if Paizo doesn't start at least experiencing some financial difficulties in the next two years or so.

D&D 4E flopped within two years of its initial release and the Essentials in 2010 was likely a Hail Mary attempt to salvage whatever they could out of 4E.

And D&D 4E wasn't attached to any political nonsense like people have claimed Pathfinder 2E of engaging in. The fact that D&D 5E was a massive success is another factor to consider.

Of course, it really all depends on how Paizo treats the players and fans of Pathfinder 1E in the long run.

If they screw over their old fans like WOTC did to the fans of 3E/3.5 when 4E came out, then they're sunk and it will only be a matter of time before they go down.

But if they're smart and don't shit all over the fans of Pathfinder 1E, they'll likely survive even if PF 2E fails simply because of things like Starfinder will keep them afloat, even if it's just as a digital publisher.

I think Baizuo will have to become a much leaner organisation, headcount-wise, before the end of 2020.

It seems the market isn't too interested in the unlimited spamming of barely tested rules additions (feats etc...). That means fewer books but actually playtesting them first outside of an echo chamber. As such, I expect the massive staff currently at Baizuo will probably be halved by the end of 2020 even if 2E meets its targets.

Quote from: Doc Sammy;1095079(snip) D&D 4E flopped within two years of its initial release and the Essentials in 2010 was likely a Hail Mary attempt to salvage whatever they could out of 4E. (snip)

Or was it Mearls floating a proof-of-concept for 5E while trying to keep his job? The back-to-the-future philosophy that ostensibly guided the creation of 4E Essentials seemed to be fundamental to 5E's subsequent success.

I thought it interesting that for their recent Kingmaker 10th anniversary AP they added a 5e bestiary (along with PF1 & 2). I could see them hitching their wagon to WotC again if Pathfinder 2 doesn't take off, and the APs are their money-makers anyway. If all they do for a while is adapt the old PF APs to 5e they can probably do that on a skeleton crew and make decent money off it.

They'll go 5e before they go broke.

Starfinder also seems to be doing well (which is something I don't get, as someone who likes Pathfinder 1e, but presumably it emboldened them to do PF 2e)

I'm currently having a blast playing Starfinder, and occasionally play Pathfinder in my brother's campaign. So I think Paizo is going to keep going for years and years to come.

But in the spirit of the thread, I predict PF2nd edition will bomb and Paizo will go bankrupt about 1 year after it releases!

Updated the grand prediction list.  Looks like 2020 is the most popular call so far.

TreChriron's Paizo Prediction Timeline

• PF2 is not going to be the success they wanted. 2020 sees some financial difficulty, layoffs, downsizing...
• Early 2020 - Paizo go back to the drawing board, refine their current 3.x ruleset to be consistent/refined without drastic changes. They call it "Pathfinder Revised".
• Late 2020 - Paizo starts converting Adventure Paths to 5e with much fanfare from the 5e crowd.
• 2021 - Paizo continues to support a dual-game approach. Each AP has both a PFR and 5e version. Paizo wins multiple Ennies and accolades for the new approach.
• 2022 - WOTC reaches out to a handful of successful 3PP and forms the ultimate 6th Edition council embracing the original 5e design idea of "modularity". Paizo, Green Ronin, Kobold Press, Goodman Games (to name a few) embark on one of the most ambitious D&D versions to date. After the Outrage Culture Wars die down, theRPGPundit is brought onboard as a consultant. Again.
• Late 2022 - Sneak peeks at the 6e previews shows a modular customizable game that broadly appeals to the OSR, 3.x and 5e crowds. The buzz starts with joy and builds to unadulterated hope. Finally, a game that has balanced meaningful "house ruling" mechanics built right in.
• 2024 - the release of 6e on the 50th anniversary of D&D with coordinated products from the 6th Edition Council is a monumental success dwarfing all previous releases by a significant margin.
• 2026 - the number of 3PP and WOTC releases has reached peak stability. There's so much quality product fans have to focus to avoid bankruptcy. Clubs are formed around 6e products so they can crowd-share purchasing product.
• 2028 - Several of the 6th Edition Council companies form a new conglomeration/corporation to leverage bulk discounts and share resources. The new company Tabletop Council nearly sweeps the Ennies in 2028 with WOTC a close second.
• 2029 - Hasbro, tired of the tight profit margins and creative non-corporation compatible ways of WOTC, starts shopping for buyers.
• 2030 - Paizo, Tabletop Council and several private investors buy WOTC from Hasbro; leaving Hasbro with a sweet 25 year open licensing agreement for non-tabletop products in the D&D brand. The companies fold into the new WOTC forming the uber-D&D-tabletop publisher.

I'm going with 2030 albeit a more positive "ending" than most predict. :-D

I'm not predicting the downfall of Baizuo or WotC but praying for it. So IMHO the sooner the better.

Quote from: GeekyBugle;1095186I'm not predicting the downfall of Baizuo or WotC but praying for it. So IMHO the sooner the better.

That is the Mexican way, pray on brother!

Quote from: Shasarak;1095187That is the Mexican way, pray on brother!

As we say around here: A Dios rogando y con el palo dando.

I'm doing my part by not buying their shit and by recommending other, better IMHO games to all that I can.

Quote from: Shasarak;1095065predicted 9 of the last 5 Economic Recessions

I do not think this sentence means what you think this sentence means.

That said, I do not predict the doom of Paizo. I think they will do just fine.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095192I do not think this sentence means what you think this sentence means.

No, I think it means exactly what it says.  Its economics not rocket science.

QuoteThat said, I do not predict the doom of Paizo. I think they will do just fine.

In that case you want this thread right here (https://www.therpgsite.com/showthread.php?40838-Pathfinder-2-Electric-Boogaloo).

Paizo is a savvy business.  The business will not fail.

PF2E, on the other hand - one prediction that I'm making is that Paizo has to truck a shit-ton of PF2E books back to Washington when GenCon is over, unless they themselves don't believe in it, and only take a small handful of books to sell there.

I'm sure that they'll end up having to lay a bunch of staff off.  I honestly cannot fathom why they didn't stay with their old model of keeping these folks as freelancers, but, eh?  There's going to be a bunch of freelancers looking for work...

I think they'll pull a White Wolf.  In very late hindsight in 10-15 years, the downfall started with PF2.  But between now and then they'll be up and down, in ways hard to tell from the outside.  It's a little weasel in the prediction department, but I have no clue when the next recession will hit in the, say, 2030 to 2035 range.  A recession about then will finish them off.

But at least they are Woke!!!

I certainly believe that having more product options is a good thing.  It might be nice if someone came up with a game so awesome that EVERYONE loved playing it and the hobby became united, but I don't think that's plausible.  Even if it were, I think there are some people that would rather play with crap so they could look down on everyone else for their 'inferior taste'.  So I don't HOPE for Paizo to fail.

But they lost me as a customer when they were launching Pathfinder.  The playtest was bullshit.  They changed a bunch of crap that they didn't need to, and refused to address a bunch of needed changes for 'backward compatibility'.  I had a lot of goodwill for Paizo - I thought they were treated badly by WotC, but not enough to ask for second helpings of a shit product.  

The development process for Pathfinder 2e appears to me to be no better thought out than the last one.  While I haven't followed it closely, I don't see anything that appears to be major improvements.  I think some non-zero number of groups will refuse to migrate, and I don't think Pathfinder is recruiting many new people into the hobby.  That said, I think they can coast for a while on a loyal group of dedicated fans.  The cost of printing books isn't a problem if they only print what they can sell.  Subscription models help ensure that they can accurately forecast their sales.  Considering that they can republish EVERYTHING they issued for Pathfinder 1, their total cost for producing 'new content' will be very low for some time.  I think they'll be able to persist for another 5-6 years exactly as they have been.  

In 6 years Seattle will be hit with a surprisingly major earthquake followed by a massive Tsunami.  The total number of deaths will be a major tragedy, and the end of Paizo will be generally overlooked in the greater disaster.

Quote from: Razor 007;1095231But at least they are Woke!!!

Come on Razor, place your bet.  Just think of all of that Danger Haired Gay Rainbow Flagged Personal Pronoun Wokeness.

**Insert image of the Emperor**

Quote from: Red Death;1095168I thought it interesting that for their recent Kingmaker 10th anniversary AP they added a 5e bestiary (along with PF1 & 2). I could see them hitching their wagon to WotC again if Pathfinder 2 doesn't take off, and the APs are their money-makers anyway. If all they do for a while is adapt the old PF APs to 5e they can probably do that on a skeleton crew and make decent money off it.

I see this as a very real possibility.

PF2E will certainly determine their direction, for better or worse. If a success, they might be able to get some players away from D&D and reestablish themselves as a contender (I don't think they'll be able to recapture the lightning in a bottle of 2011-2012 though, even in a best case scenario).

If it fails, I doubt they'd roll back to PF1E to try and salvage the situation. Much more likely is what you outlined, with them going back to what they did when they found out they were going to lose Dragon and Dungeon, making adventures for D&D. It would likely mean a dramatic reduction in staff and profits, but that's preferrable to oblivion.

Pathfinder 1e will die before Pathfinder 2e does. Paizo books, in general, will end up on shelves much like how d20 System books did in the mid-2000s. Collecting dust.

Quote from: Shawn Driscoll;1095249Pathfinder 1e will die before Pathfinder 2e does. Paizo books, in general, will end up on shelves much like how d20 System books did in the mid-2000s. Collecting dust.

I've been considering the first sentence of your post.  I don't think 2E will kill off 1E.  It's still a known item, with a fan base. 2E had better establish itself.

Also, consider how AEG rebuilt itself as a boardgame company.

Its quite possible "Pathfinder" as an IP might be more valuable as non-RPG games.

However, the abandoning of PF1e is interesting because we don't know what happens to the PF1e fans.

I wonder if a 3PP company is about to pounce with a 3e revival game...and thus begins the NSR (New School Reformation!)

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1095237In 6 years Seattle will be hit with a surprisingly major earthquake followed by a massive Tsunami.  The total number of deaths will be a major tragedy, and the end of Paizo will be generally overlooked in the greater disaster.

Oregon (and the whole NW coast) does have tsunami concerns which could happen at any time.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/oregons-tsunami-risk-between-the-devil-and-the-deep-blue-sea

If I was going to give an official vote for Shasarak's poll, I'd say that Paizo won't die out completely.

PF 2E will be a flop and they will definitely downsize to a digital-only publisher but as long as people are buying stuff for Starfinder or Pathfinder 1e, they'll stay in business, even if just barely.

So put me in the "No Failure" category for now.

I think Paizo will be like White Wolf, a shadow of their former selves but still hanging in there.

The only reason why White Wolf got nuked was because Paradox Interactive shat the bed on V5 and decided to play it safe since the dangerhairs already consider their PC strategy games to be "problematic"

Quote from: Shasarak;1095065So come on, here is your chance to be the first to correctly call the end of Paizo.  And I dont mean some kind of airy fairy some where in the future before the heat death of the Universe.  Be specific, make your best prediction and dont be like all those other losers grumbling into their neck beards.

Paizo will be fine.

Starfinder is doing very well (https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/42620/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2018). The PF2 rulebook is doing well (https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Books-Fantasy-Gaming/zgbs/books/16211/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bs). According to Roll20, as of Jan.-Mar. 2018, Paizo's online popularity is still strong (https://blog.roll20.net/post/174833007355/the-orr-group-industry-report-q1-2018).

It was time for a new edition as PF1 was a decade-old and sales had declined. Plus, there are many gamers who wanted to try PF but, the tsunami of options was a very real barrier to entry. PF2 address that issue specifically by scaling down the action economy and making the game more about playing the character you want, rather than playing the micro-game of picking the right race-class-skills-feats-traits-magic items combination.

Plus, there will eventually be a tsunami of PF2 options.

Quote from: Shasarak;1095195No, I think it means exactly what it says.  Its economics not rocket science.

Then please do explain to me, economically speaking, how one can predict NINE of the past FIVE of something. I mean, it's still math, right? You can't predict more than 5 of the last 5 of something.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095326Then please do explain to me, economically speaking, how one can predict NINE of the past FIVE of something. I mean, it's still math, right? You can't predict more than 5 of the last 5 of something.

They predicted 9 recessions. 5 of those times, a recessions actually happened. 4 times, it did not.

Paizo will crumble after the release of 3e retroclones.

My prediction:

PF2e will falter within a year after release. The PF1 fans will become so jaded, they'll merge with the Failed SWORDREAM cult, who will rejoice at the influx of new blood. They'll form the SJW Voltron and crusade to legitimize Zombie-3e as the new platform for OSRv.2

That said - I read the PF2e playtest. I'll be honest - I find it interesting. Extremely flawed. But interesting. I daresay I like, conceptually, a lot of it more than PF1... but that's not saying much.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095326Then please do explain to me, economically speaking, how one can predict NINE of the past FIVE of something. I mean, it's still math, right? You can't predict more than 5 of the last 5 of something.

It's a joke.  If they predicted 9 recessions and only five happened, then they weren't successful.  There are a bunch of these types of jokes.  The punchline is mostly about how economics is made up without any type of predictive power.  Here's another example:

QuoteA mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?

Yes, because thoughts and prayers have worked so far. ;)

Quote from: GeekyBugle;1095186I'm not predicting the downfall of Baizuo or WotC but praying for it. So IMHO the sooner the better.

Yes, because thoughts and prayers have worked well so far.

Quote from: hedgehobbit;1095327They predicted 9 recessions. 5 of those times, a recessions actually happened. 4 times, it did not.

Which means something much different than predicting 9 of the past 5 recessions. In fact, given the small numbers we're talking about, predicting nearly double makes the predictions almost meaningless. If there is a recession every other decade, and you predict one every decade, that's a pretty awful prediction model you must be using.

Quote from: deadDMwalking;1095334It's a joke.  If they predicted 9 recessions and only five happened, then they weren't successful.  There are a bunch of these types of jokes.  The punchline is mostly about how economics is made up without any type of predictive power.  Here's another example:

Ah. I should have gotten that! Thank you for the clarification.

Quote from: pdboddy;1095343Yes, because thoughts and prayers have worked well so far.

I am thinking and praying for you to have a headache. Is it working?

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/028/941/example.jpg)

Quote from: BronzeDragon;1095241I see this as a very real possibility.

Quote from: Shawn Driscoll;1095249Pathfinder 1e will die before Pathfinder 2e does. Paizo books, in general, will end up on shelves much like how d20 System books did in the mid-2000s. Collecting dust.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1095258Also, consider how AEG rebuilt itself as a boardgame company.

Its quite possible "Pathfinder" as an IP might be more valuable as non-RPG games.

Quote from: Rhedyn;1095330Paizo will crumble after the release of 3e retroclones.

Some good points here, I like the image of a dusty 4e Players Handbook sitting on the shelf next to a 3e PHB and a Pathfinder PHB very evocative.

On the other hand the dates of your ending predictions were lacking a little je ne sais quoi if you know what I mean.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1095258Its quite possible "Pathfinder" as an IP might be more valuable as non-RPG games.

I've said the same thing about D&D before 5e came out. Which is why I don't think WotC will bother with a 6e even if 5e sales start to slump.

Quote from: Theory of Games;1095308Starfinder is doing very well (https://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/42620/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2018).

That link provides absolutely zero context for how well Starfinder is doing.

Mind you, I'm not saying that it's not doing well, but the only information provided by that link is that the retailers who responded to ICV2's poll report it being the #4 RPG, behind D&D, L5R and FFGSW.

If the sales figures looked something like this (# of books sold):

#1 D&D - 5000
#2 L5R - 750
#3 FFGSW - 400
#4 Starfinder - 50
#5 Vampire - 40

That doesn't equate to Starfinder doing "very well."

ICV2's reporting retailers are not a statistically valid sample of retailers across the country, and the lack of real, meaningful numbers means you can't rely on their reports for anything.

Even if PF2 is a dud it'll have good sales in the first year, any crash in revenue will take longer than that. Even 4ed had good initial sales.

Anecdotally in my own community interest in PF has withered away quite a lot, with 5ed being more dominant than 3.5ed ever was. Used to hear a lot of chatter about Indie games, not it's almost all 5ed all the time. I'm a bit bored of 5ed personally and am looking forward to when we eventually get a wave of new games that are successful in appealing to bored 5ed fans. But PF2 isn't going to be that and PF2 isn't really going to bring new people in to the hobby (very very few games aside from D&D and WoD in its heyday did that) so it'll eventually slowly wither away as the people who jumped ship after 4ed attrition away. It'll be a slow withering though since PF adventure paths read well so a lot of people will keep on buying them even if they don't play them.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095347Which means something much different than predicting 9 of the past 5 recessions. In fact, given the small numbers we're talking about, predicting nearly double makes the predictions almost meaningless. If there is a recession every other decade, and you predict one every decade, that's a pretty awful prediction model you must be using.

This post really epitomises discussions on the internet.

Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1095382This post really epitomises discussions on the internet.

Ah, not everyone has a sense of humour so what can you do.

Any thoughts on the end of Paizo?

I predict that WOTC will offer Jason Bulmahn a short term gig, writing the Starter Set adventure for D&D6E; and then let him go.

Quote from: Razor 007;1095394I predict that WOTC will offer Jason Bulmahn a short term gig, writing the Starter Set adventure for D&D6E; and then let him go.

Is that after Paizo closes on....?

They'll make him the offer, as an insult; whether Paizo folds, or not.

Y'all wanted humor, right?

Quote from: Razor 007;1095253I've been considering the first sentence of your post.  I don't think 2E will kill off 1E.  It's still a known item, with a fan base. 2E had better establish itself.

1E will go to PDF. No POD. 2E will be a thing for awhile after. Gamers tend to not buy 1e stuff when there is a 2e out. Pathfinder 1e books will be prolonged on the ebays.

Anyway... Paizo will live on as a PDF archive on Drive-Thru.

Quote from: Shasarak;1095395Is that after Paizo closes on....?

I don't think Paizo will close, but I think they will downgrade to a digital-only publisher if PF 2E does bad enough.

Quote from: kythri;1095366#1 D&D - 5000
#2 L5R - 750
#3 FFGSW - 400
#4 Starfinder - 50
#5 Vampire - 40

Where the hell are all the L5R players???

I've so rarely gotten to play L5R since its first launch because either I'm running L5R or there ain't no L5R happening.

I'm stunned to see L5R as #2....and with 15 times the sales of Starfinder???

Quote from: kythri;1095366That link provides absolutely zero context for how well Starfinder is doing.

Mind you, I'm not saying that it's not doing well, but the only information provided by that link is that the retailers who responded to ICV2's poll report it being the #4 RPG, behind D&D, L5R and FFGSW.

If the sales figures looked something like this (# of books sold):

#1 D&D - 5000
#2 L5R - 750
#3 FFGSW - 400
#4 Starfinder - 50
#5 Vampire - 40

That doesn't equate to Starfinder doing "very well."

ICV2's reporting retailers are not a statistically valid sample of retailers across the country, and the lack of real, meaningful numbers means you can't rely on their reports for anything.

Also keep in mind in the previous ICV starfinder was in second place and it's already dropped 2 wheras 1e pathfinder was in either of the top two spots for years (Really with the announcment of 2e being what made it drop off)

As for predictions I dont think Paizo will collapse as a company but I do think 2e is not going to be any where near as succesfull as 1E and itself may be seen as something of a failure.

Quote from: Daztur;1095377Even if PF2 is a dud it'll have good sales in the first year, any crash in revenue will take longer than that. Even 4ed had good initial sales.

Anecdotally in my own community interest in PF has withered away quite a lot, with 5ed being more dominant than 3.5ed ever was. Used to hear a lot of chatter about Indie games, not it's almost all 5ed all the time. I'm a bit bored of 5ed personally and am looking forward to when we eventually get a wave of new games that are successful in appealing to bored 5ed fans. But PF2 isn't going to be that and PF2 isn't really going to bring new people in to the hobby (very very few games aside from D&D and WoD in its heyday did that) so it'll eventually slowly wither away as the people who jumped ship after 4ed attrition away. It'll be a slow withering though since PF adventure paths read well so a lot of people will keep on buying them even if they don't play them.

I don't get the hype behind Paizo APs, easily my worst gaming experiences were from Paizo modules, so much so, I became convinced for awhile that prewritten modules were inherently inferior to "real campaigns".

Quote from: Rhedyn;1095422I don't get the hype behind Paizo APs, easily my worst gaming experiences were from Paizo modules, so much so, I became convinced for awhile that prewritten modules were inherently inferior to "real campaigns".

If what the Paizo devs say is true they make most of their money off the APs vetsus the sales of books. From what I hear in person and read online many fans seem to like them. As well for tjose not wanting to create and build an entire campaign from scratch they save time as well.

Personally I find them average at most. Too many npcs needing to be rewritten from scratch because even the most non-optimized group have no trouble defeating them. So for myself at least defeats the purpose of saving on game prep.

Quote from: Rhedyn;1095422I don't get the hype behind Paizo APs, easily my worst gaming experiences were from Paizo modules, so much so, I became convinced for awhile that prewritten modules were inherently inferior to "real campaigns".

From my understanding they read better than they play. Lots of people buy all kinds of stuff that they never use at the table so being good reading material often matters more for sales than being useful in an actual game.

Quote from: kythri;1095366ICV2's reporting retailers are not a statistically valid sample of retailers across the country, and the lack of real, meaningful numbers means you can't rely on their reports for anything.

While I agree with the rest of your post, I don't agree with this. I do think their measuring a statistically valid sample.  I believe we long ago established the number they're getting reports from is well beyond what's needed to claim their measurements are statistically relevant and with a reasonable margin of error.

Quote from: Shasarak;1095386Ah, not everyone has a sense of humour so what can you do.

Any thoughts on the end of Paizo?

I have plenty of sense of humor but lacking context for the reference it didn't look like humor in text form. Now that I get the joke, it's funny and I feel embarrassed for not getting it.

Also, neener neener, you're a poopy head, and all that.

Quote from: Spinachcat;1095258Its quite possible "Pathfinder" as an IP might be more valuable as non-RPG games.

I think you're on to something here. I've played Pathfinder ... as far I can tell it's already all character building with no "RPGing" whatsoever to speak of.

Quote from: Razor 007;1095394I predict that WOTC will offer Jason Bulmahn a short term gig, writing the Starter Set adventure for D&D6E; and then let him go.

Cut-throat! And yet... historically accurate.

I wonder what PF2E will do to the burgeoning CRPG market for Pathfinder after the relative success of Pathfinder Kingmaker.

D&D 3.5/PF1E are preternaturally well-suited for computerized gaming, and a success is usually followed up by more games along the same line. Would a Kingmaker 2 still use PF1E? Would it change over to PF2E? How well-suited for CRPG presentation is PF2E?

Keep in mind a resounding success at the CRPG market might equal several years worth of success in the TTRPG market, considering the relative profit margins and actual potential audience.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095326Then please do explain to me, economically speaking, how one can predict NINE of the past FIVE of something. I mean, it's still math, right? You can't predict more than 5 of the last 5 of something.

Predicting hard times and being wrong seems to do no harm to the career of an economist and pop economists predict disaster on a regular basis. Since economic disasters, while they do occur, cannot occur often enough for these predictions to be correct all of the time, the statement is correct.

I can remember a book called "The Panic of xxxx (a year that did not feature a panic, or not a major one) and a couple of years later, the same author published a book with the title "The (some kind of economic disaster) of xxxx + 5. Both books sold fairly well, at least we didn't return any to the publishers.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095441I have plenty of sense of humor but lacking context for the reference it didn't look like humor in text form. Now that I get the joke, it's funny and I feel embarrassed for not getting it.

Also, neener neener, you're a poopy head, and all that.

I dont mind someone with no sense of humour.  Its the guys with no reading comprehension that makes me peevish.

Come on, people!  Its a prediction thread so predict already, no grognarding!

Quote from: Shasarak;1095386Ah, not everyone has a sense of humour

Yes, we call them Americans.

QuoteAny thoughts on the end of Paizo?

Is it ending? News to me.

I've been gaming since 1983, long enough to have seen several hysterical "roleplaying is dying!" phases. Poor running of rpg companies was going to kill gaming first. Then computer games were killing rpgs. Then CCGs. Then computer games again, this time with VR. Then poor running of rpg companies, again. Then digital publishing was going to kill rpgs. Somewhere in there the OGL was going to kill gaming, and later D&D4e was going to kill it, too. I think storygamers and their SJW authours may have been mentioned as a factor more than once.

Now it seems people have given up saying that roleplaying is dying, and have confined themselves to saying this or that particular rpg company is dying, or is going to die but doesn't know it yet. The rpg world is no different to any other business, individual businesses come and go, but the industry as a whole plods along.

My son first noticed my copy of Basic D&D when he was four, and asked to play. I didn't tell him about it, he asked. But he'd been roleplaying before that, playing cops & robbers, and dressing up as a pirate or a princess.

I have no idea what will happen to Paizo. But while all the hysterical drama goes on, people will continue to sit around a table and roll dice and eat snacks and tell tall stories. So long as there is a book somewhere with a picture of a warrior fighting a dragon, so long as grownups like eating snacks, rolling dice and telling tall stories, so long as children want to dress as pirates, there will be roleplaying games. Hysterical predictions of doom will always be with us, but the game must go on.

Quote from: Kyle Aaron;1095498I've been gaming since 1983, long enough to have seen several hysterical "roleplaying is dying!" phases. Poor running of rpg companies was going to kill gaming first. Then computer games were killing rpgs. Then CCGs. Then computer games again, this time with VR. Then poor running of rpg companies, again. Then digital publishing was going to kill rpgs. Somewhere in there the OGL was going to kill gaming, and later D&D4e was going to kill it, too. I think storygamers and their SJW authours may have been mentioned as a factor more than once.

I hear you, putting you down for No Failure.

No. I've no idea what'll happen to Paizo in particular. A company can have a product everyone wants and yet still fuck things up. I mean, look at Enron. It's not like people suddenly stopped wanting electricity.

My answer about Paizo is: I don't know. But rpgs in general will go on either way.

Quote from: Mistwell;1095440While I agree with the rest of your post, I don't agree with this. I do think their measuring a statistically valid sample.  I believe we long ago established the number they're getting reports from is well beyond what's needed to claim their measurements are statistically relevant and with a reasonable margin of error.

There's no consistency or reliability to their reporting sources.

A retailer may report numbers to them one month, and not the next.

ICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Grognards predict that a new edition of a game will fail. News at 5.

I doubt Pathfinder will ever return to its high-water mark of pre-5E popularity. But PF2 will probably see it maintain its status as a strong second-tier RPG publisher. There will always be a market for a more crunchy char-op D&D variant with top-notch production values. Not a huge market, but a viable one. In today's RPG scene, probably the biggest thing holding Pathfinder back isn't the mechanics or a new edition. It's the paucity of live-streaming, podcasts, and Youtube content creators playing the game. They have Glass Cannon and that's about it.

Actually, there's a "path" for Pathfinder 2e to be a success.

We have been told 5e has brought in a new generation of gamers.

5e is several years old now. It's the "been there, done that" game now. PF2e would be the "new hotness".

As with any group of gamers, some will prefer more or less rules crunch. Who knows the breakdown either way, but we know both groups exist.

Those 5e players wanting more crunch *might* be excited by what PF2e offers them.

If this "massive new RPG fanbase" exists beyond watching YT streams, then maybe Paizo will sell lots of books.

Maybe not 5e or PF1e level sales, but maybe quite good enough sales to keep being a company of worthless PC shitbags for another decade.

Quote from: Haffrung;1095655Grognards predict that a new edition of a game will fail. News at 5.

That will never change it is the absolute 1000% that it will fail simply because they don't like it. As apparently everyone else fees like them 1000% as well when it comes to rpgs.

Paizo is selling 5E material in small amounts for now. Other gaming products such as dice and maps and critical/fumble decks. I agree sales will not be like they were for 1E. The absolute failure some say it is not by a long shot.

Quote from: kythri;1095527There's no consistency or reliability to their reporting sources.

Uh, there is though?

QuoteA retailer may report numbers to them one month, and not the next.

Except the overwhelming majority is the same set over and over again, using the same tried and true methodology for comic book retailers which has been independently verified by the distributors?

QuoteICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Except they are?

Seriously it sounds like you have no idea what their methodology actually is so you just substituted your guesses for facts and stated it that way.

Quote from: kythri;1095527...
ICV2 reports really aren't reliable.

Quote from: Mistwell;1096084...

Seriously it sounds like you have no idea what their methodology actually is so you just substituted your guesses for facts and stated it that way.

Now be honest kuthri, were you just making stuff up? Come on... you can tell us... It's ok.

Quote from: trechriron;1096087Now be honest kuthri, were you just making stuff up? Come on... you can tell us... It's ok.

Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Quote from: kythri;1096103Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Alright you two - I've had it! Someone post some goddamned evidence or you both are on TIME OUT!!

Premature speculation is kind of a young guy's problem. At least they're ready to go again a short time later.

Quote from: kythri;1096103Mistwell is full of shit.  ICV2 numbers reinforce confirmation bias, and that's about it.

Show me any evidence, any evidence at all, that their sampling is not large, or not diverse, or in any way based on confirmation bias. You made the claim, so let's see it.

For my part they said their methodology is the same one used for comics (often the same stores but not exclusively), and that matches Diamond Comics distributor numbers within a margin of error, so there was an objective outside check on their reporting. I can try and dig up those articles, but they're behind a paywall and over a year old (I used to represent ComicBookResources.com and had access to that data, but I don't represent them anymore since the sold). For what it's worth the reports we are used to seeing are not their main reports they're just summaries of the actual Internal Correspondence issues and the Pro issues.  Their data is gathered from four sources: retailers reports, distributor data, and manufacturer data, and kickstarter data.  Three of those four are verifiable from outside. Only the retailer interviews is not verifiable, but I don't know why you'd discount based on that since the distributor data alone is telling you more than 80% of the story.

Welp after getting my copy of the first issue of 2nd editions ap (Although not interested in 2e itself was hoping I'd be able to convert to 1E) I'm gonna say it really is not looking good.

How so?

Quote from: Kevin197;1096362Welp after getting my copy of the first issue of 2nd editions ap (Although not interested in 2e itself was hoping I'd be able to convert to 1E) I'm gonna say it really is not looking good.

Come on, just a couple of spoilers.

Well I dont like the layout, the art ranges from good to really meh, The overarching plot is not that great and kinda dosent make much sense and ruins a character ive been waiting for information on for almost 10 years. Then there is whats happend to the goblins. A tribe of em are put into the adventure as the main hook (There a good tribe of goblins because reasons) and it just feels weird and forced (In order to make them workable as a good tribe pretty much have to strip out everything that makes Golarion goblins well golarion goblins afterwards they may as well just be halflings into big ear and green paint cosplay)

Quote from: Kevin197;1096393Well I dont like the layout, the art ranges from good to really meh, The overarching plot is not that great and kinda dosent make much sense and ruins a character ive been waiting for information on for almost 10 years. Then there is whats happend to the goblins. A tribe of em are put into the adventure as the main hook (There a good tribe of goblins because reasons) and it just feels weird and forced (In order to make them workable as a good tribe pretty much have to strip out everything that makes Golarion goblins well golarion goblins afterwards they may as well just be halflings into big ear and green paint cosplay)

We knew that Goblins were going good for a year now so of course they have to show up in the first volume.

Anything there about playing a Hell Knight?  What about taking over the citadel, any rules for that or is that vol. 2 stuff?  Which character have you been waiting 10 years for?

Nothing I can see so I assume that's all in book 2 (Although the hellknight thing is in the lost omens world guide or something) and the problem I have with the goblins is basically what I suspected would happen when they announced they were making Goblins a core playable race (To make them work they have to get rid of everything that made them Golarion goblins)

Quote from: Mistwell;1096166Show me any evidence, ...

I heard ICV2 is run by a trio of ancient Hags now. They stopped using correspondence years ago in favor of divination, dream walking and dark magics. I'm sure that has increased the accuracy by a huge factor. [/kidding]

I too am keen to see the evidence. I hope it turns out it's Hags.

Quote from: Kevin197;1096393Well I dont like the layout, the art ranges from good to really meh, The overarching plot is not that great and kinda dosent make much sense and ruins a character ive been waiting for information on for almost 10 years. Then there is whats happend to the goblins. A tribe of em are put into the adventure as the main hook (There a good tribe of goblins because reasons) and it just feels weird and forced (In order to make them workable as a good tribe pretty much have to strip out everything that makes Golarion goblins well golarion goblins afterwards they may as well just be halflings into big ear and green paint cosplay)

Not a fan at all of them suddenly changing Goblins to good guys in their seitting. Especially with textbook Deus Ex Machina. As Kevin197 says it not only feels forced it is really out of character for the setting and how they have portrayed Goblins since they released the core PF 1E.

They expect Goblins to go from being psychotic, sociopathic, bloodthirty, murderous, cannibalistic, backstabbing, untrustworthy, word hating bastards that NO likes in the setting. Even most of the villains because  of what I wrote. To jump on the WOW bandwagon suddenly their is a good tribe because of reasons and feels. Not in my campaign if I ever play PF 2E. It goes against all their setting lore about goblins they have written over the years. If they so badly wanted to include a small underdog race why not Kobolds. At least they are LE in alignment vs completely fucked up in the head to the point that Jack Nicholson character from the Shining look like normal person.

Quote from: sureshot;1096448Not a fan at all of them suddenly changing Goblins to good guys in their seitting. Especially with textbook Deus Ex Machina. As Kevin197 says it not only feels forced it is really out of character for the setting and how they have portrayed Goblins since they released the core PF 1E.

They expect Goblins to go from being psychotic, sociopathic, bloodthirty, murderous, cannibalistic, backstabbing, untrustworthy, word hating bastards that NO likes in the setting. Even most of the villains because  of what I wrote. To jump on the WOW bandwagon suddenly their is a good tribe because of reasons and feels. Not in my campaign if I ever play PF 2E. It goes against all their setting lore about goblins they have written over the years. If they so badly wanted to include a small underdog race why not Kobolds. At least they are LE in alignment vs completely fucked up in the head to the point that Jack Nicholson character from the Shining look like normal person.

Also this is all in Isger as in Goblinblood wars Isger as in half the population killed by goblins Isger. (In there blogs they try to get around this by claiming the Goblins were forced into it by the Hobgoblins so yes they are using the they were only following orders to murder pillage and eat people excuse)

https://pathfinderwiki.com/wiki/Goblinblood_Wars

Quote from: sureshot;1096448They expect Goblins to go from being psychotic, sociopathic, bloodthirty, murderous, cannibalistic, backstabbing, untrustworthy, word hating bastards that NO likes in the setting. Even most of the villains because  of what I wrote. To jump on the WOW bandwagon suddenly their is a good tribe because of reasons and feels. Not in my campaign if I ever play PF 2E. It goes against all their setting lore about goblins they have written over the years. If they so badly wanted to include a small underdog race why not Kobolds. At least they are LE in alignment vs completely fucked up in the head to the point that Jack Nicholson character from the Shining look like normal person.

I dunno.  Look at all the "good" drow characters that have shown up at the table with contrived backstories over the years.

Quote from: Blusponge;1096491I dunno.  Look at all the "good" drow characters that have shown up at the table with contrived backstories over the years.

True yet they also kind of wrote that some a VERY truly small amount rebelled against the ways of the Drow at least in FR.

With also having a goddess for good drow https://forgottenrealms.fandom.com/wiki/Eilistraee as a background element.

With Goblins their was NEVER EVER any indication of a tribe of good goblins let alone any of them having any single damn regret about the actions of their own kind. They were from the start to be truly brutally evil like I posted above. They even hate the written word and have a feat that triggers rage in one with levels of Barbarian https://www.d20pfsrd.com/feats/general-feats/letter-fury-goblin/ . Sure a DM might change them in a background or might allow one as a cohort. Otherwise it is and still is an overly obvious attempt by the Paizo devs to try and draw in the WOW crowd to play PF. Even if it makes no sense at all. With them trying to shoehorn in Goblins as a playable race and hope no one notices (their fans did) and then "wonder" why they are getting called out on it.

From the Pathfinder Reference Document on Goblins: http://legacy.aonprd.com/monsterCodex/goblins.html

We are suddenly supposed to believe in a tribe of good Goblins suddenly exists in Golarion. Sure ok they may exist yet it goes against all their own lore that the devs wrote on the subject.

I kind of agree with the initial post of the OP. Goblins in 3.5 actually looked way better. In Pathfinder they look anything but imo: http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?489883-I-Hate-Pathfinder-Goblins

Are they actual capital G Good alignment goblins, or are they goblins that have figured out the concept of "acceptable targets?"

My main understanding is that some tribes in Isger that don't want to be killed anymore have turned their attention towards bandits and the roving undead, the new primary dangers since the war.

So goblins aren't forgiven allies, but they sometimes share an uneasy peace with their neighbors, who are also tired of fighting.

Of course, that is only some tribes.  Mostly they are either still pests at best and/or efforts to live in peace are handled badly/met with violence.

I can imagine how that might have gone...  "The longshanks near the Toothripper tribe don't kill them anymore!  They kill lawout longshanks and re-dead the corpses and get left alone.  We kill lawouts and get left alone!". Then some day later a village wakes up and finds desmembered bandit corpses arranged in festive piles outside their doors, freak out and call for help killing the local goblins.  "That didn't work, back to normal."