For those of you outside the US, you might not know, but today is Super Tuesday.  This is the day when a huge number of states (24 this year!) hold their Primaries (or caucuses in some cases). The states this year are: Alabama, Alaska, American, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Democrats , Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah.

Polls are open (maybe not quite yet in Alaska) - Predictions?

Prediction:  John McCain is the next US President.  Rudy Giuliani is VP.

My prediction:
By the time my state's primary happens, the two cadidates will have been already decided.

Quote from: StuartPrediction:  John McCain is the next US President.

Perhaps.  Now a strong contender.  He'll emerge as the strongest front-runner from today's primaries, if not the clear nominee.

QuoteRudy Giuliani is VP.

Nope.  Not a strong connection between McCain and Giuliani.  McCain will probably look to a state governor as a running mate, not from among the current crop of candidates.  No firm prediction on whom.

As for the Democratic primaries, I think it's a little too close to call, almost a coin-toss.  Personally, I see Obama pulling ahead today, but not so far that it obviates the need for head-to-head campaigning against Clinton right up to the Democratic National Convention.

Too soon for Presidential election predictions.

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaToo soon for Presidential election predictions.

That's what makes them fun.

My prediction is that it doesn't matter who gets in, USA still goes to war to prootect its interests.

Quote from: StuartThat's what makes them fun.

Okay, I see McCain emerging from the Republican National Convention with the party nomination.  That much I'm beginning to see.  But a Presidential race with an Obama nominee and with a Clinton nominee will be very different.  Personally, I see McCain having a much more difficult time maintaining the high moral ground against Obama, while in a race against Clinton the two of them will get mutually mired in entrenched Washington political baggage.  So, as I suggested above, we'll have to wait to see who emerges from the DNC as the nominee.

!i!

It seems to me that Hillary is losing ground.  It seems like she does the cry/choked up thing whenever it's looking bad.  But who the hell knows--until later on tonight.

Quote from: James J SkachFor those of you outside the US, you might not know, but today is Super Tuesday.

I'm not familiar with it.

Is it likely that whoever win today will be the candidates or can there be reversals later?

Quote from: Consonant DudeI'm not familiar with it.

Is it likely that whoever win today will be the candidates or can there be reversals later?

I depends on how many delegates they get today.  Today about half or so of all the delegates are up for grabs.  So a very convincing win across the board today is a big deal.  

Later on each of the two parties will have a Convention and all of those delegates will actually vote for their candidate in order for them to get the party's nomination.  Delegates of those candidates no longer in the running are the X factor and can lead to some back room deals.  Back in the day there used to be an awful lot of back room deals and the candidate with the most delegates going into the Convention was not necesarily the one that won the nomination.

Quote from: Consonant DudeI'm not familiar with it.

Is it likely that whoever win today will be the candidates or can there be reversals later?

I'm not sure about "reversals," but sometimes it remains a contest even after Super Tuesday.  This year is a bit different.  It used to be that something like 8 or 10 states went today - but a bunch signed on to the idea of doing it all one day so it's 24 this year.

If a candidate was in the lead and then swept today - chances are they;d lock the nomination. This year it looks like there will be more work left to do.  This could be a year where we don't know until the conventions...

My predictions - kinda:
McCain wins the Republican nomination, much to the chagrin of the more conservative side of the party (and contrary to Pundit's belief that the Hard Right Religious Nut Jobs are in control!). If he faces Clinton, he's president. If he faces Obama, Obama is president.

If Romney somehow pulls out a victory and gets nominated, all bets are off.

Callous has a good take on it.  It should also be noted that the real measure is simply that the candidates have to have X number of votes to be nominated.  IIRC, it's 2,050.  I'm not sure if that's for Dems alone or they use the same number on both sides. Whoever gets there wins.

The money (Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade) is on McCain for Republican nominee, not only because his opponents are fading, but because the Republican nomination system is first-past-the-post winner-take-all in most states. Today will probably sew it up for him.

Obama/Clinton will probably go on for a while because the Dems in most states use a proportional system. The money basically says it's a toss up; polls say the same. But Obama has momentum.

As for the general election, polls & the money also favor the Democrats, though Obama tends to be liked better in matchups with McCain than Hillary does. But it's really way, way too far off to predict the general election.

Quote from: James J SkachMy predictions - kinda:
McCain wins the Republican nomination, much to the chagrin of the more conservative side of the party (and contrary to Pundit's belief that the Hard Right Religious Nut Jobs are in control!). If he faces Clinton, he's president. If he faces Obama, Obama is president.

Your assertions are probably right.

Its not that hte Religious Nut Jobs are in control; they are the party machine, and McCain is the outsider candidate. They tried everything to sink him, and have failed.  McCain represents a grassroots movement within the Republican party to try to take back the party from the religious right.

It will likely win.

Meanwhile, a fairly similar thing is happening around Obama as the outsider, versus Clinton representing all of what is now the old school lobbyist reactionary wing of the democratic party.
With the democrats, it seems much more up in the air.  And let me say: The Democrats are utter fucking idiots if they fail to elect Obama.  If he is the candidate, they would have to fuck up in some royally huge way for him not to become president (short of him being assassinated, which is also a frightening possibility).

RPGPundit

Well, it sounds like Obama is the heavy favorite here in MN.

Some of the people from within the local Dem party tell me to expect a win in the double figures for Obama. However, we are very jumpy here and did manage to elect Jesse Ventura so know what will happen once the polls close.