Thanks guys!

It's interesting to learn about this.

Can I bother you with one last question? It seems that many of you agree that Obama matches better than Clinton against the Republican guy... what's the reason? Is it debating skills, some weird demographic reason? The peculiarities of presidential elections?

And subquestion: if this sentiment is widespread, why are the democrats even keeping Clinton in the running?

Thanks!

Quote from: RPGPunditIf he is the candidate, they would have to fuck up in some royally huge way for him not to become president

I wouldn't rule this option out. :raise:

Going to my caucus in about an hour.  Should be back before the Fox affiliate starts its evening news cast at 9pm local time.

Quote from: Consonant DudeCan I bother you with one last question? It seems that many of you agree that Obama matches better than Clinton against the Republican guy... what's the reason?

The opinions will vary depending upon whom you ask.  Here are a few reasons that I can think of of the top of my head (some more meritable than others):

• Clinton and McCain both represent entrenched Washington-politics-as-usual. Obama is seen as a fresher face with less baggage and cynicism (though some will try to characterise this as lack of experience).  The "Kick out the bums!" vote could be split either way between McCain or Clinton.
• Clinton is seen by some as a radically polarising influence and claim that people will vote against her just out of spite.
• Some figure Obama will get a "sympathy vote" for being black much more easily than Clinton will get one for being a woman.
• Obama has a reputation as an inspirational orator and a campaign message of new hope, which may drum up more enthusiasm against an admittedly grumpy old soldier, moreso than Clinton can muster by drumming up nostalgia for the 90s.

There are more reasons (that I hope others will mention), but you can mix and match any of the above for any number of personal opinions on why Obama will run stronger against McCain than Clinton.

Quote from: RPGPundit(short of [Obama] being assassinated, which is also a frightening possibility)

G'ah.  I'm getting fucking sick and tired of hearing this cautionary whisper.  Why do people think he'll be assassinated?  Because he's black and reminds people of Martin Luther King Jr.?  Because he's young and reminds people of JFK?  Please, if George W. Bush couldn't get assassinated over all the hatred and animosity he's stirred up in the seven years he's been in office, Obama should hold out just fine.  I honestly don't see him as being any more susceptible than any other President.

!i!

Quote from: Consonant DudeAnd subquestion: if this sentiment is widespread, why are the democrats even keeping Clinton in the running?

Oops.  Missed this bit.

Basically, because, as long as she wants to raise money to campaign and spend it, she's welcome to do so.  Now, once the Democratic National Convention come up (in late August), delegates from all of the individual states and protectorates will vote on a single candidate who will thereafter be endorsed as the official party candidate.  So, when the convention is over, the Democrats will have decided whether they're running Obama or Clinton against the Republican nominee (who, by the way, is endorsed in the same fashion -- their convention is in early September).

After the national conventions, those candidates not endorsed by their respective parties are still welcome to run for the Presidency if they want and can pay for it, but it's invariably as a protest gesture when they do.

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaThe opinions will vary depending upon whom you ask.  Here are a few reasons that I can think of of the top of my head (some more meritable than others):

• Clinton and McCain both represent entrenched Washington-politics-as-usual. Obama is seen as a fresher face with less baggage and cynicism (though some will try to characterise this as lack of experience).  The "Kick out the bums!" vote could be split either way between McCain or Clinton.
• Clinton is seen by some as a radically polarising influence and claim that people will vote against her just out of spite.
• Some figure Obama will get a "sympathy vote" for being black much more easily than Clinton will get one for being a woman.
• Obama has a reputation as an inspirational orator and a campaign message of new hope, which may drum up more enthusiasm against an admittedly grumpy old soldier, moreso than Clinton can muster by drumming up nostalgia for the 90s.

There are more reasons (that I hope others will mention), but you can mix and match any of the above for any number of personal opinions on why Obama will run stronger against McCain than Clinton.

Great summary, Ian. I will say that in my experience (admittedly anecdotal, of course), the Hillary Hatred is real. One of my co-workers who is pretty died-in-the-wool democrat (with Anti-Bush bumper stickers and all) said he would cross over and vote McCain if Clinton is the nominee.

BTW, the reason for my analysis is more of a Republican thing - though I don't know if it's a separate point. If McCain wins, the natural tendency of the more conservative part of the party will be to stay home in protest. If Obama is the Democrat, they will do so - not enough hatred for him. But the more conservative wing of the party will come out in force to vote against Hillary - even if it means they have to vote for a guy they don't particularly like (and trust me, the do not like McCain).

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaG'ah.  I'm getting fucking sick and tired of hearing this cautionary whisper.  Why do people think he'll be assassinated?  Because he's black and reminds people of Martin Luther King Jr.?  Because he's young and reminds people of JFK?  Please, if George W. Bush couldn't get assassinated over all the hatred and animosity he's stirred up in the seven years he's been in office, Obama should hold out just fine.  I honestly don't see him as being any more susceptible than any other President.

No, because he'll have beat the Clintons - if that doesn't paint a target on your back...

QuoteAfter the national conventions, those candidates not endorsed by their respective parties are still welcome to run for the Presidency if they want and can pay for it, but it's invariably as a protest gesture when they do.

They're not entirely welcome to run without an official party endorsement--they'd have to navigate all the individual states' rules for getting on the ballot as Independents.

One interesting, theoretical way around this is to run for more than one party's nomination. I'd guess that the Dems and Republicans disallow this, but I noticed on the sample ballot I received that a couple names were the same for both the Greens and some other party.

(John Anderson in 1980, and Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, both ran credible independent campaigns after failing to win the Republican nomination)

What many outside the US may not realize is that the party nominating processes for the D's and R's are very democratic, for lack of a better word. There are ways that the party machine and bigwigs can stack things in favor of a preferred candidate, but something like 80% of the delegates to the nominating conventions are chosen by regular voters--though the rules vary from state to state, even to the degree of sometimes allowing people to vote in primaries even if they're not a member of the party in question. This year things are also complicated for the Dems by the fact that two rather large states (Michigan and Florida) decided to move their primaries earlier than allowed by party rules, and were penalized by not being allowed to seat any delegates.

[Edit: reorganized a bit for clarity.]

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaG'ah.  I'm getting fucking sick and tired of hearing this cautionary whisper.  Why do people think he'll be assassinated?  Because he's black and reminds people of Martin Luther King Jr.?  Because he's young and reminds people of JFK?  Please, if George W. Bush couldn't get assassinated over all the hatred and animosity he's stirred up in the seven years he's been in office, Obama should hold out just fine.  I honestly don't see him as being any more susceptible than any other President.

It fits well into the "Have Republicans Stopped Beating Their Negroes" template.

I think James S. and Ian are right about why Republican-leaning voters would be more energized to oppose Hillary than Obama. What is also true, is Hillary isn't well-liked by a number of Democrats and liberals. The far left was no fan of Bill Clinton for things like welfare reform at home and bombing Yugoslavia and Iraq abroad, not to mention connections to corporate interests. Her own stance on Iraq during the Bush administration doesn't endear her to liberals and others who view the invasion and occupation as immoral or misguided. And I wonder if I'm not alone in feeling more than a little queasy at the prospect of America being ruled over by alternating family dynasties.

Finally, while the anti-abortion right is likely to stay in the Republican column (that is, unless McCain runs back to the center on the issue, in which case they might sit out the election), I can imagine some Pat Buchanan conservatives tilting toward Obama, or simply sitting out, due to their loathing of neoconservatism in foreign policy.

Ian, thanks for showing me the ways of American politics a little, man!

Amusingly: When I read the political pundits I saw hate for Huckabee when he was surging ahead in Iowa, and now that McCain is in the lead, it's nothing but hate for the McCain... this from the nutjob pundits from the Republicans.

All else being equal, I don't think the Republicans can really rally behind ANY of their candidates... for once.  This, as I recal, is the typical lamentation of the hardened Democrat supporter.

This time its two strong contenders on the left vs the 'pack of compromise candidates thrown at the wall to see who'll stick' on the right.


This time around I find myself strongly leaning to Repubs, despite not caring about the candidates. Obama is too wonky liberal (and empty...)for me, and Hillary... ugh. Let us not talk about Billary.

Then again... even Billary is preferrable to the Huck. Not that I suspect the Huck is going the distance.  I'd be 'happy' with McCain or Romney... though McCain has lost some of his lustre from years past...

Worst case senario? Obama vs. the Huck. I'd probably vote Obama and move to Costa Rica just in case...

Damn it all, where are the Pika candidates?!

I believe that at this time the smart money is on a McCain/Huckabee ticket for the GOP.  It accomplishes several things:

1.  It somewhat neutralizes the hate-on that social conservatives have for McCain, as Huckabee is one of their boys and passes their litmus tests.  Bonus points because as a result of McCain's age there is a chance that Vice President Huckabee will become President Huckabee...
2.  Huckabee is a Southern Governor, which is what the "formula" calls for to shore up support.
3. Huckabee has been making a name for himself in this campaign for being eloquent, a good stumper, and a quick wit in the debates.  All good things in a running mate.

Some have speculated that Huckabee has stayed in the race in part to divide the conservative base and give the nomination to McCain, all in an effort to curry favor and the invitation onto the ticket.  I am not sure I totally buy that, but it seems like a good match up, and today at least it seems like the two campaigns have coordinated in West Virginia to deny Romney the victory.

As for the Democrats, it is still a toss up.  Frankly, I don't see Hillary winning if she faces a McCain/Huckabee ticket.  People would go out of their way to vote against her; conservative Republicans would hold their nose and have Huckabee as consolation, and even a lot of embittered Democrats might find McCain palatable enough to vote for him.


TGA

Hey, as long as the incoming prez allows Smiting as a legal means of expression, I'm cool with him. Electrocution should never be viewed as assault....

Quote from: James J SkachPolls are open (maybe not quite yet in Alaska) - Predictions?

A bit late for predictions but when I heard that Senator Robert Menendez was confident that Hillary would win New Jersey, it was clear the fix was in there.  Yeah, the Democrat Machine turns out whatever kind of vote they need up in Hudson County.  The dead are easy to persuade that way.

(And before you accuse me of slandering Hudson County Democrats, I know a person who had to tear her dead husband's voting card out of the voting book, after several attempts to have it legally removed, to stop him from voting while dead and when they complained, she dared them to call the police.)

At this hour:

CLINTON:  AR, MA, MO, NY, NJ, OK, TN
OBAMA: AL, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT

Note that the delegate count does not line up squarely with this.  But so far Obama is doing pretty well, certainly better than projected even a few weeks ago.  He has a slight delegate lead as of now.

McCain has a huge delegate lead.

 HUCKABEE: AL, AR, GA, MO, TN
MCCAIN: AZ, CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY, OK
ROMNEY: MA, ND, UT