Quote from: Bloody Stupid Johnson;397084Found this link for calculating weekly sales from ranking - there probably are better sites out there though, and it wouldn't surprise me if someone on EnWorld or RPGnet might already have done the full calculations.

http://www.fonerbooks.com/surfing.htm

Thanks BSJ.

That was one of the pages I vaguely remember.  (I think it may be the graphs).

From the comments around the Mearls "3 < 3.5 < 4" quote on his blog, there is a subtle hint of joking.  Mearls may have just been engaging in humor.

http://mearls.livejournal.com/150306.html

Quote from: Bloody Stupid Johnson;397081Probably to determine # active players they would have used PHB sales, adding in a multiplier for book-sharers and pdf moochers. Its probably only useful as an "upper limit" figure for sales - though they could also have applied a reduction for purchasers who don't play, so there's a fair bit of latitude either way.

As a first approximation, this "multiplier" could correspond to the P/B ratio of the number of active players (P) to the number of 4E PHB1 books sold (B).

Taking the numbers deduced from the ICv2 post (May 2008) and other sources (Ryan Dancey's numbers), the number of first printing 4E PHB1 books could be B=150,000 to B=300,000.  These would correspond to a P/B ratio of 10 and 5 respectively.


From Mistwell's quoted numbers,

http://www.therpgsite.com/showpost.php?p=397079&postcount=25

the number of 4E PHB1 books could be B=500,000 to B=850,000.  These would correspond to a P/B ratio of 3 and 1.76 respectively.


From these numbers, one could infer this "multiplier" being in the range 1 to 10.  The case of 1 means every active player has bought a 4E PHB1 book.  The case of 10 means that approximately on average for every two groups (ie. 12 players), one player bought a copy of the 4E PHB1 book.

EDIT:  I suspect it would be worrisome for WotC, if this "multipler" was more towards the upper range closer to 10 (or over 10).  Generally a "multipler" greater than 6, means that there exists 4E gaming groups which are not buying any of the 4E PHB1 hardcover books.  It would be cause for concern if it turns out the "multipler" is greater than 12, which means on average every second 4E gaming group is not buying any 4E PHB1 books.

Quote from: ggroy;397087From the comments around the Mearls "3 < 3.5 < 4" quote on his blog, there is a subtle hint of joking.  Mearls may have just been engaging in humor.

http://mearls.livejournal.com/150306.html

I think you have to purposely read something into it to come out with that conclusion.  To be objective, I think we have to take his word for it.  In fact, that particular quote doesn't make a whole lot of sense read as a joke...the joke part was about gamma world, not the print run of 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0.

He didn't answer my later question, but then it WAS a later question and he doesn't usually go back to older posts he's made in his blog to answer questions.  I think the most likely explanation is he never even read my question.

Quote from: ggroy;397096EDIT:  I suspect it would be worrisome for WotC, if this "multipler" was more towards the upper range closer to 10 (or over 10).  Generally a "multipler" greater than 6, means that there exists 4E gaming groups which are not buying any of the 4E PHB1 hardcover books.  It would be cause for concern if it turns out the "multipler" is greater than 12, which means on average every second 4E gaming group is not buying any 4E PHB1 books.

Based on WOTC's announcements about illegal PDF downloads and the court case, it does in fact seem to be a worry of theirs that many people play the game without buying the books.

I'm curious, as I've never worked in a gaming store, but how is RPG distribution handled?

I mean, does WotC ship directly to retailers or do they go through distributors much like Marvel and DC comics do?

Quote from: Mistwell;397108In fact, that particular quote doesn't make a whole lot of sense read as a joke...the joke part was about gamma world, not the print run of 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0.

At this point we can give him the benefit of the doubt.

Quote from: Mistwell;397110Based on WOTC's announcements about illegal PDF downloads and the court case, it does in fact seem to be a worry of theirs that many people play the game without buying the books.

I remember in some 3E/3.5E games I played in and a few other gaming groups I was aware of, nobody had any of the real hardcover D&D books.  In one game I played in, they just used the 3.5E SRD and cribbed information from either borrowing a 3E or 3.5E PHB1 from the library, or using a pirated pdf of it.

Earlier today I dropped by two of the places I went to last week.  (One big box bookstore and a gaming store).

I sat down and took a closer look at two books, to examine it for errata:

- second printing of MM2
- fourth printing of PHB2.

It appears there are few errata corrections (if any) incorporated into these subsequent printings.  For example:

- In the fourth printing PHB2, there were no errata corrections done for the following class powers:

Avenger:  Twin Step
Barbarian:  Rage Strike, Devastating Strike, Howling Strike, Recuperating Strike
Druid:  Wild Shape, Call of the Beast
Invoker:  Blood Debt

http://www.wizards.com/dnd/files/UpdatePH2.pdf
 

- In the second printing MM2, there were no errata corrections done for the following entries:

page 8 - Angel of Retrieval
page 9 - Angel of Light
page 96 - Eladrin Arcane Archer
page 158 - Wereboar
page 216 - Aura.

http://www.wizards.com/dnd/files/UpdateMM2.pdf

I also sat down and looked further at the second and third printings of MM1.

In particular, I examined the hit points of the solo monsters.  With a calculator, I determined that the level 11 and higher solos were using the old hit points formula from the 4E DMG1.

The old hit points formula for solos monsters from the 4E DMG1 was:

[ 8*(level + 1) + CON]*4 -> level 1 to 10

[ 8*(level + 1) + CON]*5 -> level 11 and higher

The new hit points formula for all solos from the 4E DMG2 is:

[ 8*(level + 1) + CON]*4


I also did the hit points calculations of the solo monsters in the 4E MM2.  It follows the new hit points formula from DMG2.

Today I also saw the Orcus figure on the shelf at the gaming store, and noticed the Orcus stat card (printed on the box) mentioned that Orcus is level 34 and has 1252 hit points.  Doing the hit points calculation, this is consistent with the new hit points formula from the 4E DMG2, assuming Orcus has a CON of 33.  (Orcus from MM1, has a CON of 33).

Quote from: Shazbot79;397129I'm curious, as I've never worked in a gaming store, but how is RPG distribution handled?

I mean, does WotC ship directly to retailers or do they go through distributors much like Marvel and DC comics do?

At one gaming store nearby, the manager mentioned they get most of their stuff from Diamond/Alliance.  This particular store stocks all kinds of stuff like comic books, card games, manga, warhammer, rpg games, etc ...  Occasionally they use another distributor.

At another bigger store in town, they order boxes full of 4E hardcover books of the same title.  It looks like one of these boxes can hold around 15 to 20 hardcover splatbooks.  (I don't know what the quantity discount is on ordering such a large carton all at once).  I haven't asked the manager yet, as to where they ordered these large boxes of 4E books from.

A lot goes through Diamond.  Here is their upcoming list for example:

http://previewsworld.com/public/default.asp?t=2&m=1&c=23&s=134

I am not a fan of Diamond.  They have essentially a monopoly on a lot of lines of products, and are ruthless in destroying potential competition.

Anyway, back in 2002, this is what their distribution network looked like:

http://www.icv2.com/articles/indepth/920.html

Wonder if the anti-trust people at the DOJ have looked into Diamond/Alliance over the last decade.

On a side note, Barnes & Noble is putting itself up for sale.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6725JJ20100804

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/03/news/companies/barnes_noble_sale/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin

Quote from: ggroy;397165At another bigger store in town, they order boxes full of 4E hardcover books of the same title.  It looks like one of these boxes can hold around 15 to 20 hardcover splatbooks.  (I don't know what the quantity discount is on ordering such a large carton all at once).  I haven't asked the manager yet, as to where they ordered these large boxes of 4E books from.

So if game stores don't get their books directly from WotC, is it possible that the entire stock of first and second run PHB's have been sold to Diamond and the third runs are backstock taking up space in WoTC warehouses?