I'd like to take this opportunity to post some predictions so that, in the event they cometo pass, I can point back here in the months to come and say "told you so" in an insufferably smug manner. Obviously if I'm wrong then everyone is welcome to rub this thread in my face at a later date.

I'd also be interested in hereing some honest predictions from other people. What do various people think, all personal interest aside, will actually come to pass? If you want to preserve your own expectations then feel free to do so.

Anyway, my predictions:

1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

Does anyone honestly think things will be different? If so, how?

Quote from: TrevelyanDoes anyone honestly think things will be different?

Yes, they do. But in reality, things will pretty much proceed as you've projected.

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiYes, they do. But in reality, things will pretty much proceed as you've projected.

Yeah, prognostication isn't exactly a difficult art

Alright, Trev, I'll take a shot for humor's sake. To be honest, it's not, for me, the predictions themselves.  It's the premises on which you've based them and the conclusions you've drawn.

Quote from: Trevelyan1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

This depends greatly on how you define "failure." I agree that it will likely not "tank," or be a "flop." But if it doesn't match 3e in terms of sales (units), I could very well see where that could be called a failure. The real question involves the expectations of WotC. If, for example, they expect to sell 1M PHB's, and they only sell 750,000, it's a failure.  It's not a hug one, but they did not reach their target. So I agree that it will be difficult, nigh impossible, for it to "tank" - but failure is a trickier issue.

Quote from: Trevelyan2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

This one is based on the excluded middle.  I look at the opinion that many have stated (Stuart probably says it most) that 4e might be a very good game. Likely it will be a game different enough from 3e that they provide different scratches for different itches.

None of which precludes a valid tagging of 4e as being a more MMO-influenced or CCG-influenced game (than some prefer - that's always left out). It can be those things and still be a good game. For some it's just a different enough game to prefer other versions/games.

Quote from: Trevelyan3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

It will be universally considered D&D as it has the brand and the trademark. Current skeptics will vary greatly in opinion on whether or not and how much it feels like D&D to them.

Perhaps it might even change the very definition as to what it means to be considered D&D, particularly for future customers - but that's a different issue that's a shadow of a ghost of a seed of an idea in my head.

Quote from: Trevelyan4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

Whether or not they play, I would expect someone who decides to continue to criticize the game would at least buy/read it to do so.

Quote from: Trevelyan5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

How do you determine if they are "unfounded"? You seem to make the leap that if folks complain, their complaints are, by the very nature of their existence, unfounded. Some complaints will be, other will not. Some complaints will be valid but meaningless to someone who doesn't see them as a problem.

Quote from: Trevelyan6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

As I've said elsewhere, I think 5e is going to be a bigger shift than 4e. Some of the arguments will reappear and have validity, even if they were not valid as 4e complaints. Just because a criticism has been lodged against 4e and is shown to be unfounded has no bearing on it's validity with respect to 5e.

Perhaps you could cut down your predictions to something more concrete - like 4e will sell X copies, or Y% of 3e players will make the shift to 4e. Because while in your opinion a charge of MMO influence might be unfounded, it might be very relevant for another. That path leads to nowhere.

Quote from: TrevelyanYeah, prognostication isn't exactly a difficult art

Especially not when we're talking about something that's so cyclical. It happened with AD&D. It happened with 2nd edition. It happened with 3e. It happened with 3.5.

Seanchai

Quote from: James J SkachThis depends greatly on how you define "failure."

Yeah. "Failure = stuff I don't like" is a definition that comes easily to your kind.

Seanchai

I predict that there either IS or WILL BE a thread like this on every rpg-related forum prior to the games release.

WHO'S WITH ME?!

My definition of a failure would be something like the Marvel Universe Role Playing Game (the diceless version that came out in 2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvel_Universe_Roleplaying_Game

It failed as a game, and then it failed to sell. And then it was canceled.

I like to use the god-awful MURPG as a proof case that the brand doesn't count for crap if the product behind it isn't any good.

Now, does anyone want to argue with whether the Marvel Universe is a less popular brand than the "D&D" brand?

I'm going to say they are similar.

Quote from: Abyssal MawMy definition of a failure would be something like the Marvel Universe Role Playing Game (the diceless version that came out in 2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvel_Universe_Roleplaying_Game

It failed as a game, and then it failed to sell. And then it was canceled.

I like to use the god-awful MURPG as a proof case that the brand doesn't count for crap if the product behind it isn't any good.

Now, does anyone want to argue with whether the Marvel Universe is a less popular brand than the "D&D" brand?

I'm going to say they are similar.

Excellent source for failure definition, AM!  

Also, completely agreed that they are fairly similar, although i would guess that there are more people who read comics than there are that playing role playing games, but who knows.

Quote from: kregmosierI predict that there either IS or WILL BE a thread like this on every rpg-related forum prior to the games release.

WHO'S WITH ME?!

MADNESS!

I would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

Quote from: J ArcaneI would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

And as an individual, it totally rocks that you are expressing your individuality.

But we've seen that sort of thing happen again and again. Statistically-speaking, many of the people resistant to change will jump quietly into 4e eventually. Some of them will even hilariously evangelize about it, having "seen the light" and all that.

It's going to happen. It's inevitable.

Doesn't mean it's going to happen to everybody, though.

Quote from: Consonant DudeDoesn't mean it's going to happen to everybody, though.

That's true. There are some folks who won't make the change over. I'm sure many of the folks on Dragonsfoot don't play 3e or 3.5 in addition to AD&D or OD&D.

And you know what, more power to 'em. If AD&D and OD&D is what makes 'em happy, I say go for it.

It's the pre-switch whining I can't stand.

Seanchai

Quote from: J ArcaneI would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

See, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiSee, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Hint:

Spoiler

her relationship to you starts with the word great repeated more than once