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I'd like to take this opportunity to post some predictions so that, in the event they cometo pass, I can point back here in the months to come and say "told you so" in an insufferably smug manner. Obviously if I'm wrong then everyone is welcome to rub this thread in my face at a later date.

I'd also be interested in hereing some honest predictions from other people. What do various people think, all personal interest aside, will actually come to pass? If you want to preserve your own expectations then feel free to do so.

Anyway, my predictions:

1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

Does anyone honestly think things will be different? If so, how?

Quote from: TrevelyanDoes anyone honestly think things will be different?

Yes, they do. But in reality, things will pretty much proceed as you've projected.

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiYes, they do. But in reality, things will pretty much proceed as you've projected.

Yeah, prognostication isn't exactly a difficult art ;)

Alright, Trev, I'll take a shot for humor's sake. To be honest, it's not, for me, the predictions themselves.  It's the premises on which you've based them and the conclusions you've drawn.

Quote from: Trevelyan1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

This depends greatly on how you define "failure." I agree that it will likely not "tank," or be a "flop." But if it doesn't match 3e in terms of sales (units), I could very well see where that could be called a failure. The real question involves the expectations of WotC. If, for example, they expect to sell 1M PHB's, and they only sell 750,000, it's a failure.  It's not a hug one, but they did not reach their target. So I agree that it will be difficult, nigh impossible, for it to "tank" - but failure is a trickier issue.

Quote from: Trevelyan2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

This one is based on the excluded middle.  I look at the opinion that many have stated (Stuart probably says it most) that 4e might be a very good game. Likely it will be a game different enough from 3e that they provide different scratches for different itches.

None of which precludes a valid tagging of 4e as being a more MMO-influenced or CCG-influenced game (than some prefer - that's always left out). It can be those things and still be a good game. For some it's just a different enough game to prefer other versions/games.

Quote from: Trevelyan3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

It will be universally considered D&D as it has the brand and the trademark. Current skeptics will vary greatly in opinion on whether or not and how much it feels like D&D to them.

Perhaps it might even change the very definition as to what it means to be considered D&D, particularly for future customers - but that's a different issue that's a shadow of a ghost of a seed of an idea in my head.

Quote from: Trevelyan4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

Whether or not they play, I would expect someone who decides to continue to criticize the game would at least buy/read it to do so.

Quote from: Trevelyan5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

How do you determine if they are "unfounded"? You seem to make the leap that if folks complain, their complaints are, by the very nature of their existence, unfounded. Some complaints will be, other will not. Some complaints will be valid but meaningless to someone who doesn't see them as a problem.

Quote from: Trevelyan6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

As I've said elsewhere, I think 5e is going to be a bigger shift than 4e. Some of the arguments will reappear and have validity, even if they were not valid as 4e complaints. Just because a criticism has been lodged against 4e and is shown to be unfounded has no bearing on it's validity with respect to 5e.

Perhaps you could cut down your predictions to something more concrete - like 4e will sell X copies, or Y% of 3e players will make the shift to 4e. Because while in your opinion a charge of MMO influence might be unfounded, it might be very relevant for another. That path leads to nowhere.

Quote from: TrevelyanYeah, prognostication isn't exactly a difficult art ;)

Especially not when we're talking about something that's so cyclical. It happened with AD&D. It happened with 2nd edition. It happened with 3e. It happened with 3.5.

Seanchai

Quote from: James J SkachThis depends greatly on how you define "failure."

Yeah. "Failure = stuff I don't like" is a definition that comes easily to your kind.

Seanchai

I predict that there either IS or WILL BE a thread like this on every rpg-related forum prior to the games release.

WHO'S WITH ME?! ;)

My definition of a failure would be something like the Marvel Universe Role Playing Game (the diceless version that came out in 2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvel_Universe_Roleplaying_Game

It failed as a game, and then it failed to sell. And then it was canceled.

I like to use the god-awful MURPG as a proof case that the brand doesn't count for crap if the product behind it isn't any good.

Now, does anyone want to argue with whether the Marvel Universe is a less popular brand than the "D&D" brand?

I'm going to say they are similar.

Quote from: Abyssal MawMy definition of a failure would be something like the Marvel Universe Role Playing Game (the diceless version that came out in 2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvel_Universe_Roleplaying_Game

It failed as a game, and then it failed to sell. And then it was canceled.

I like to use the god-awful MURPG as a proof case that the brand doesn't count for crap if the product behind it isn't any good.

Now, does anyone want to argue with whether the Marvel Universe is a less popular brand than the "D&D" brand?

I'm going to say they are similar.

Excellent source for failure definition, AM!  

Also, completely agreed that they are fairly similar, although i would guess that there are more people who read comics than there are that playing role playing games, but who knows.

Quote from: kregmosierI predict that there either IS or WILL BE a thread like this on every rpg-related forum prior to the games release.

WHO'S WITH ME?! ;)

MADNESS!

I would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

Quote from: J ArcaneI would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

And as an individual, it totally rocks that you are expressing your individuality.

But we've seen that sort of thing happen again and again. Statistically-speaking, many of the people resistant to change will jump quietly into 4e eventually. Some of them will even hilariously evangelize about it, having "seen the light" and all that.

It's going to happen. It's inevitable.

Doesn't mean it's going to happen to everybody, though.

Quote from: Consonant DudeDoesn't mean it's going to happen to everybody, though.

That's true. There are some folks who won't make the change over. I'm sure many of the folks on Dragonsfoot don't play 3e or 3.5 in addition to AD&D or OD&D.

And you know what, more power to 'em. If AD&D and OD&D is what makes 'em happy, I say go for it.

It's the pre-switch whining I can't stand.

Seanchai

Quote from: J ArcaneI would like to provide the following official response to the "You're just lying and are gonna buy 4e anyway" crowd:

Go fuck yourself, you mouthbreathing shitheads.

See, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiSee, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Hint:

Spoiler

her relationship to you starts with the word great repeated more than once

Quote from: James McMurrayHint:

Spoiler

her relationship to you starts with the word great repeated more than once

Oh, must we engage in stereotypes?  Why assume that it will be a woman? Why not his dad, or his brother?  To turn the tables a little, why not his dog, or perhaps his preteen niece?  Puts a little different face on the matter, doesn't it?

!i!

Quote from: SeanchaiSee, I'll have time to fuck myself because I'll be an early 4e adopter. While you're learning the 4e rules and playing catch up, I'll have time for a leisurely fuck with one of your relatives (I won't say just which one because I believe in surprises).

Seanchai

Nobody calls me a liar.

Nobody.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaOh, must we engage in stereotypes?  Why assume that it will be a woman? Why not his dad, or his brother?  To turn the tables a little, why not his dog, or perhaps his preteen niece?  Puts a little different face on the matter, doesn't it?

!i!

Who's stereotyping? Seanchai has done this before.

And did I mention that J Arcane is a liar?

Quote from: James McMurrayWho's stereotyping? Seanchai has done this before.

And did I mention that J Arcane is a liar?

So how's 4chan doing these days, James?

I have a feeling that I have seen all this before. This all sounds like Microsoft Vista forum stuff!

There will be a bunch of early adopters.

A lot of others sticking with the older versions until an update is inevitably released. And others will defend their old versions to the death! DEATH I TELL YOU!

There will be incompatibilities with old systems, but anything new will come out with the new platform in mind.

Eventually no matter which group you go to, someone will have a copy of the new platform and tell you how shiny it looks! Check out my glossy pictures man!

Sleek new competitors will start eating up market share and open source niche markets will grow and be cool with the hardcore crowd.

In the end sales will drop because every man and his dog will be hitting the torrent sites to nab their new copy so they can give it a discrete once over before they consider purchasing the product.

Personally I have no doubt that the game will sell but I think that it won't be quite as successful as previous iterations :)

Quote from: J ArcaneSo how's 4chan doing these days, James?

No idea. I've heard enough about it that I don't want to know what it's actually like.

Quote from: telliusI have a feeling that I have seen all this before. This all sounds like Microsoft Vista forum stuff!

I bet WotC is really hoping 4e is nothing like Vista.

Check the news:
http://news.google.com/news?q=Microsoft+Vista

Vista has not been well received.

Quote from: StuartI bet WotC is really hoping 4e is nothing like Vista.

Check the news:
http://news.google.com/news?q=Microsoft+Vista

Vista has not been well received.

...largely by a lot of wags that don't actually understand what they are talking about. The "it's XP with a paint job" myth certainly has taken hold on the interent. Plus it's like people entirely forgot what it was like with Windows XP prior to SP1. Not that Vista doesn't have problems. But it's definately moving units. :shrug:  WotC could do better but they definately could do worse as well.

I use Vista at work because I have to...and actually, you know what? I really like it. It's easier on the eye than XP, does exactly the same things, and has cool knobs and whistles.

Anyway, back on topic, regardless of its merits, I'm really not sure 4e will do well, because I think roleplaying in general is now a closed market; most existing players of d&d will pick up a copy, but it won't touch anybody outside of the hobby in anything like significant numbers. That's because kids who are the age I was when I started playing d&d and who are the main target when talking about bringing people into the hobby (12+ ish) now have a whole host of other things to spend time doing that are similar enough to roleplaying, while also being more easily accessible and instantly gratifying - i.e. MMORPGs and computer games in general.

So I think the new edition will shift numbers and keep WotC ticking over, but that's all.

Regarding the people who complain about 4th edition...you're probably right that some will eventually be won over. I'll never say never, but my main emotion right now regarding the mechanics of 4th edition is just utter disinterest and boredom rather than hatred, which makes me think I'll be one of the ones who just sticks with 2nd-edition-until-I-die-thanks-very-much.

Quote from: TrevelyanI'd like to take this opportunity to post some predictions so that, in the event they cometo pass, I can point back here in the months to come and say "told you so" in an insufferably smug manner. Obviously if I'm wrong then everyone is welcome to rub this thread in my face at a later date.

I'd also be interested in hereing some honest predictions from other people. What do various people think, all personal interest aside, will actually come to pass? If you want to preserve your own expectations then feel free to do so.

I like this "prediction" game, so I'll oblige you in playing it. Prognostication can be fun. :)

Quote from: TrevelyanAnyway, my predictions:

1) 4E will be a financial and commercial success, albeit possibly not on the saem scale as 3E, for WotC. Regardless, it will not be possible for anyone to reasonably claim that 4E 'tanked', 'flopped', 'failed' or any other such description.

4e will succeed very well....in the short-term, but the current game plan for 4e is not a recipe for long-term success, and I'll tell you why.

Quote from: Trevelyan2) The vast majority of currently ambivalent or mildly sceptical posters will find that 4E is far closer to previous editions than they had anticipated and will happily play 4E. This is not to say that 4E will become their game of choice or that they'll cut out 3E or previous editions, just that most people will accept that the fears about the 'MMOification', the 'CCGification' and similar of D&D will prove to be unfounded, and most people will admit that it's a pretty good game.

Partially right, and partially wrong. 4e might or might not be a good game, but the fears of "MMOfication" and "CCGification" will continue unabated by a large number of people. I guarantee it.

Quote from: Trevelyan3) As an extension to #2, 4E will still be considered 'D&D' by most people, including current sceptics.

4e will be considered the D&D adventure game/MMO/ccg/ice cream, but not quite exactly D&D, the classic rpg. At least not as most people know it....

Quote from: Trevelyan4) Many more determined sceptics will continue to criticise the game for some time, yet they will do so with a depth of knowledge that strongly hints that they both own and play the game. They will simply wait some time until they hope that people have forgotten their initial objections.

Probably correct, but the skeptics won't be long-term customers for 4e, and a game needs long-term customers to survive.

Quote from: Trevelyan5) Some people will never convert. That's fine if it makes them happy. By the same token we will continue to see 'MMO' and similar complaints from some people, regardless of how unfounded they might be.

I won't take the bait on that one. Whether or not those complaints about the MMO-ization of 4e are grounded in reality or not is irrelevant. The perception exists that 4e is transforming into an MMO, and that perception is all that counts.

Quote from: Trevelyan6) We'll see exactly the same sorts of arguments when 5E appears, and the final outcome will likely be the same.

The final outcome won't be what you think.

Quote from: TrevelyanDoes anyone honestly think things will be different? If so, how?

Yes. Here's a response I made about Pathfinder on RPGnet, that also delves into the future of 4e. Scroll down to post #136, and you'll see what I said:

http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?t=385115&page=14

For those who don't wish to visit there, here's my post on RPGnet in all it's glory:

Quote from: ChristinaStiles (on RPGnet)It doesn't have to be bigger. That's their point. There's a large enough market out there for Paizo (not just any company) to produce 3.5/3.75 material. They can succeed at this. I predict they'll bring in market shares enough to rival them at least with White Wolf in rpg sales.

And my reply to her..

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb (on RPGnet)You have the right of it. Pathfinder alone will not "defeat" 4e, but then it doesn't have to. What will happen is that Paizo will sell a shitload of copies of Pathfinder. Guaranteed. Now here's the tricky part. The almost-unthinkable endgame of Pathfinder's success, will be Hasbro eventually defeating itself in the rpg arena, and before anyone scoffs, let me explain..

Hasbro now rejects the OGL and the movement that surrounds it. Most d20 and OGL publishers will find this unacceptable, because they want to publish d20-style games, and do it without outside interference. They'll see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead end, and will jump back onto 3.x for three reasons:

(1.) Paizo has given us a reminder that embracing the 3.x market is viable from a business perspective, as there are still tons of people that play 3.x and variant d20 and OGL games.

(2.) There is the realization that publishers will be unable to devise a stable long-term business plan based upon the 4e license, since it can be changed at a moment's notice, and will inevitably be changed when the game drastically changes again in a few years when there is another edition of D&D.

(3.) 4e is a major departure from both the rules and implied setting of D&D. It's an entirely different animal, and its long-term success is a great big unknown for many people.

The end result of all this will cause one quite logical thing to happen. The rpg market will fragment more drastically than ever before. Whether or not this is something to rejoice about, or despise, is open to debate, but Hasbro put themselves into this situation, and the arrival of Pathfinder is the first major symptom of the fragmentation that has already begun...

The other symptoms will take the form of multiple d20 and OGL publishers publishing 3.x-compatible material again under the banner of the OGL, which is the only safe harbor they know, and which has a guaranteed audience. Some publishers will create their own variant OGL games, such as True 20, while other game companies will push their own OGL's for their own entirely different systems, as doing so will strengthen the trademarks for their own games. This will have the end effect of eroding Hasbro's market share in the rpg industry.

The thing to remember is that 3e and the OGL created a certain buzz and excitement that never existed before in the rpg industry. Here, we suddenly had tons of gamers who returned to D&D with the advent of 3.0, and many of these gamers literally had their dreams come true in the form of a license that actually encouraged them to write their own material, compatible with their favorite roleplaying game. That license completely changed the mental landscape of the game industry, when people came to the sudden realization that, for better or for worse, anyone can be a publisher. Before the OGL, few would ever dream of this being a reality.

Fast forward things less than a decade later, and we already have two new editions.....3.5, and very shortly, 4e. This shows us that the "planned obsolescence model" is the way of it now for the D&D owned by Hasbro. The knowledge that this model exists demonstrates that 4e is a dead-end for publishers. Hasbro is trying to close Pandora's Box, so to speak, but they just can't do it. The OGL is forever, and I suspect Hasbro is trying to nudge people into forgetting that.

Pathfinder will sell tons of copies, though 4e will sell more. That being said, 4e won't last. It can't, because of the closed nature of the 4e license, the lack of large numbers of third-party publishers to support it for a long period of time, and the departure of 4e from the "classic" D&D experience.

Pathfinder will dominate the 3.x market....initially. It's possible that another third-party publisher will eventually dominate the 3.x market, if said publisher does a better job of giving the 3.x fans what they want. Other more "variant" OGL games, such as Conan, Mutants & Masterminds, True 20, and Castles & Crusades will continue to perform well in the marketplace, provided they keep a relatively brisk production schedule, and maintain high production values. You'll see a smattering of completely new OGL games if this comes to pass, which it likely will.

I'll go on record here, and say that Paizo will likely increase their market share because of this decision to publish a 3.x-compatible game under the OGL, provided it remains compatible enough, and if they streamline the rules a little bit. It's a balancing act to do that, but if they succeed, then the publication of this game will act as both a catalyst and a reminder for other publishers, that following the 3.x fanbase is viable from an economic standpoint. Players are generally interested in games that are in print. The announcement of Pathfinder will guarantee that 3.x remains in print, and when the customers go there (and they will), other publishers will follow suit.

While this is happening, more players will explore the viability of other non-20ish rpgs, especially games with OGLs. No one single game has to "defeat" D&D. Within ten years, Hasbro will, at least partially, defeat itself in the rpg arena.

However, even with the economic viability of 3.x, publishers still have only a limited window of opportunity to start releasing their first 3.x-compatible products. They have two to three years, at most. If they wait any longer, then the fickle public will move on. Paizo is releasing a beta this year, and the final version next year, so they'll be fine.

The changes in the rpg landscape will drastically change over the next decade, and a clever publisher has never had a better opportunity to take advantage of that reality than now.

__________________

I predict 4E is going to bring back into the fold some gamers who stopped playing D&D. The same thing happened when 3E was released.

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RI predict 4E is going to bring back into the fold some gamers who stopped playing D&D. The same thing happened when 3E was released.

Regards,
David R

I don't see how 4e will attract people if 3e didn't.

Unless you are talking about people who bought 3e then stopped playing it - in which case that's not even remotely the same thing that happened with 3e (BD&D/AD&D players who never bought 2e buying 3e).

Quote from: jgantsI don't see how 4e will attract people if 3e didn't.

Unless you are talking about people who bought 3e then stopped playing it - in which case that's not even remotely the same thing that happened with 3e (BD&D/AD&D players who never bought 2e buying 3e).

No, I'm saying 4E may bring back folks who stopped playing D&D for whatever reason. 3E did the same. I can't say for sure but I think each succesive edition brought back folks who stopped playing D&D.

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RNo, I'm saying 4E may bring back folks who stopped playing D&D for whatever reason. 3E did the same. I can't say for sure but I think each succesive edition brought back folks who stopped playing D&D.

Regards,
David R

Antidotally I know people that stopped playing 2e as well as 1e and came back for 3e.

P.S.  Until I had read Maw's posts it hadn't occured to me before that there were OD&D/BD&D players that stopped, had skipped AD&D altogether, and started back with 3e.

Quotethe lack of large numbers of third-party publishers to support it for a long period of time

D&D doesn't need 3rd party support, and never did.  The biggest seller of material for D&D has always been Wizards, so much so that most of the market largely gave up on it and abandoned straight-up D&D for their own house systems that are only secondarily related to it and called D20 for marketing purposes.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaWhy not his dad, or his brother?

True. His dad did caress my knee lovingly at dinner. And his brother has that Deliverance kind of look.

Seanchai

Quote from: J ArcaneNobody calls me a liar.

Nobody.

They don't have to. It's all there in your posts.

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb4e might or might not be a good game, but the fears of "MMOfication" and "CCGification" will continue unabated by a large number of people. I guarantee it.

A "large" number of people, huh? What's that, a few thousand?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambProbably correct, but the skeptics won't be long-term customers for 4e, and a game needs long-term customers to survive.

Really? Because WotC stayed afloat selling splatbook after splatbook to 3e skeptics.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhether or not those complaints about the MMO-ization of 4e are grounded in reality or not is irrelevant. The perception exists that 4e is transforming into an MMO, and that perception is all that counts.

I agree with you there, I just don't think it counts for much. Your side says folks are shying away from 4e for one reason or another, but it's already doing well on just pre-orders alone.

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiTrue. His dad did caress my knee lovingly at dinner. And his brother has that Deliverance kind of look.

You neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too? :)

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaYou neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too? :)

!i!

Are you implying he might be a Bistromath sock puppet?

Oh, no, no.  Earlier I had admonished James for stereotyping Seanchai (http://www.therpgsite.com/forums/showpost.php?p=188193&postcount=16) by suggesting that he'd only fuck a female member of your family.  I suggested that Seanchai might very well intend to fuck your father or brother, but also your dog or your under-aged niece.

While it's a distinctly distasteful topic to pursue, Seanchai seems to be expressing a broader interest in your family.  So, I guess it's topical to know whether or not he fucks dogs and children, too.

!i!

7. Some folks who have no objection to WotC marketing tactics and happly buy Draconomicran Vol. 8: Pseudodragons, will find out the Kool-aid was in fact, not lemon flavor!  :D

Actually I am one of the "hard line skeptics" but I also have played and like the rules of 4E.  For the record, I have NO problem at all with the rules-- it is a fun system, and I will probably play it one day.  But I will never buy it, because I object so strongly to wizards' marketing tactics (won't go into it here, don't want to derail things).  

As for the rest of the predictions I bet you'll be right.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaYou neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too?

Definitely no children. But I did allow J Arcane's childhood dog to lick peanut butter off my testicles.

Seanchai

Quote from: Everyone BeforeBlah Blah Blah 4e > 3e Blah Blah  - no wait 3e > 4e Blah Blah

Whatever.

Stuart's new avatar wins this thread.

WTF is that, Stu?

Quote from: BlackhandStuart's new avatar wins this thread.

WTF is that, Stu?

You never ask an animal to attack.  You command him to attack. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb23eu8Y0vY)

:haw:

Quote from: SeanchaiA "large" number of people, huh? What's that, a few thousand?

Possibly... :)

Quote from: SeanchaiReally? Because WotC stayed afloat selling splatbook after splatbook to 3e skeptics.

They sold splatbook after splatbook to 3e fans. There's a difference.

Quote from: SeanchaiI agree with you there, I just don't think it counts for much. Your side says folks are shying away from 4e for one reason or another, but it's already doing well on just pre-orders alone.

Seanchai

You're correct, of course. 4e will do well.....initially. But the thing to keep in mind is that there's no real future in 4e for third-party publishers since Hasbro has made it pretty clear that they now reject the OGL and everything it stands for.

The OGL helped strengthen D&D as a brand during the 3e era, and with the loss of the OGL for the latest edition, 4e will suffer from a lack of third-party support. That will negatively affect Hasbro's bottom line. This reality is coupled with the fact that a sizable minority of players will be alienated by 4e, as they'll consider it too radical a departure from the implied setting of D&D. One thing to remember is that 4e is a temporary situation for D&D, and won't be published by Hasbro in ten years. In fact, it may very well be discontinued in less than five years. Hasbro will quickly dump 4e via the "planned obsolescence model", and move onto 4.5 or 5e, or instead focus far more on leveraging the D&D brand for novels, miniatures, and computer games.

Even now, gamers are making a big deal about Pathfinder, which will be a largely 3.x-compatible product. I'm gonna be a bit repetitive here, but what the hell...
 
Since Hasbro summarily rejects the OGL and the movement that surrounds it, we'll be discovering that a large number of d20 and OGL publishers will find this to be an unacceptable situation.

People want to publish d20-style games, and wish to do so without outside interference. Most publishers will inevitably see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead-end, and use the OGL for 3.x-compatible games or OGL variant games instead. They will do this because the player base is still partially there, and because devising a stable long-term business plan tethered to 4e is impossible. 4e has no OGL, and will inevitably be rendered "obsolete" in a handful of years anyway. Therefore, 3.x and especially the OGL will have longevity, but 4e won't.

As a result of all this, we're going to see some pretty major fragmentation of the rpg industry. Pathfinder is the first symptom of this fragmentation. There's already a bunch of publishers lining up to create products compatible with Pathfinder, and that's only the beginning.

We're going to see more OGL products. We'll also see more third-party game companies marketing their own systems. The reason why we'll see more is because the arrival of 4e has ensured that there's no commonly-agreed on "definitive" D&D experience. People now know that even 4e will be very temporary. So they'll stick with the game system that has the OGL.

The customer base for 3.x-compatible rpgs, and especially OGL-based rpgs will be smaller than the 4e, but it's irrelevant because the OGL/3.x has longevity. 4e doesn't. The "planned obsolescence model" remains in effect for D&D for as long as Hasbro owns it.

All this fappery will cause the rpg industry to fragment, to a degree, as I outlined above. Even the so-called Digital Initiative will be unable to prevent this as people can resort to MMO's to get an alternate fantasy experience. And if people are so stoked about playing D&D online, they can play Neverwinter Nights instead, without monthly fees.

Within five years or so, the 3.x-compatible and variant-OGL-based market will be stable and strong, the game companies not basing their future upon Hasbro's various licenses will be stronger than they were five to eight years ago, and the 4e crowd will be in disarray when a major new announcement from Hasbro renders 4e "obsolete". So, 4e will financially succeed, but will only be a very temporary success. Within ten years or less, Hasbro will most likely try to almost completely morph D&D into an online subscription-based model. Whether or not they succeed at that, is anybody's guess...:pundit:

I think that it would be absurd to suggest that 4e will be a "flop" in the sense of not turning a profit for WoTC.  But that's usually not the standard in most businesses (especially at WoTC's scale) for judging "success".  

Success in business usually consists in not just making a profit, but making MORE profit than you used to.  And that's going to be the real question: whether 4e actually manages to be MORE successful than 3e was.

As for my own position: I can't imagine myself playing 4e, but I do not totally rule out the possibility.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditI think that it would be absurd to suggest that 4e will be a "flop" in the sense of not turning a profit for WoTC.  But that's usually not the standard in most businesses (especially at WoTC's scale) for judging "success".  

Success in business usually consists in not just making a profit, but making MORE profit than you used to.  And that's going to be the real question: whether 4e actually manages to be MORE successful than 3e was.

As for my own position: I can't imagine myself playing 4e, but I do not totally rule out the possibility.

RPGPundit

4e alone will be less successful than 3e. Hasbro might even know it, but they're already thinking beyond 4e.

In any case, you're correct. 4e won't "flop", but its success will be temporary, as Hasbro will quickly render 4e "obsolete", and crank out another edition while the iron is hot. At this point, they're convinced they have the gaming populace mentally "trained" to accept the whole "planned obsolescence model". That truth of that is debatable, but 4e is once again, a temporary situation, for the real edition to come. I suspect that 4e, coupled with their "Digital Initiative" is merely a schematic for what they really want to do with D&D, but they had to go there gradually (or else too many people would reject it), so 4e is Hasbro's compromise for what they really want, which is a compulsory subscription-based service for every gamer that wants to play D&D.

This won't happen for years, if at all, but I suspect that's Hasbro's true goal for the game. We all need to remember that 4e is only a stepping stone to where Hasbro really wants to take the game, and the Digital Initiative is the key to helping them achieve it.

In any case, 4e will sell plenty of copies (certainly more than Pathfinder), but it won't last as long as Pathfinder, other 3.x-derived games, and the rest of the OGL market. Meanwhile, the non-Hasbro-based OGL market will chug along quite adequately, slightly better than before...:pundit:

Quote from: StuartYou never ask an animal to attack.  You command him to attack. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb23eu8Y0vY)

:haw:

XOMG

This link is the coolest, most relevant, and most interesting thing that anyone can find in this entire thread.

Just to stay on topic, I will never play, let alone buy 4e.  Unless it comes with a blowjob, performed by a female (of course).  And even then, one session only.

But we all know how that will work.  

Blowjob is an activated ability, and you can only have one Blowjob in effect at any one time.  Blowjob affects only one target (without penalty), and is a magical effect that changes the target's behaviour, who will do anything in their power to get to the source of the Blowjob.  You may only Blowjob humanoids, or animals with genitalia at a -5 Penalty unless you have the Feat Animal Whore, in which case the penalty is negated.  You may not place a Blowjob on a creature where your own Blowjob is already active.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey sold splatbook after splatbook to 3e fans. There's a difference.

Okay, the skeptics became "fans." However you want label them, the majority of the 3e opponents switched, then kept buying 3e products.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambBut the thing to keep in mind is that there's no real future in 4e for third-party publishers since Hasbro has made it pretty clear that they now reject the OGL and everything it stands for.

If the future of 3e lay in the hands of third-party publishers, boy was it in trouble! There are a few standouts, but largely, the third party support for D&D is...uninspiring.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe OGL helped strengthen D&D as a brand during the 3e era, and with the loss of the OGL for the latest edition, 4e will suffer from a lack of third-party support.

Except there will be third-party support.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThis reality is coupled with the fact that a sizable minority of players will be alienated by 4e, as they'll consider it too radical a departure from the implied setting of D&D.

Yes, and your four inch penis is a real vagina ripper, too. Seriously, dude, your idea of what constitutes "sizeable" is laughable.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambOne thing to remember is that 4e is a temporary situation for D&D, and won't be published by Hasbro in ten years.

That seems to be pretty much par for the course for larger publishers. The release an edition of their core rulebook, then a few years later, release a new one.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambEven now, gamers are making a big deal about Pathfinder, which will be a largely 3.x-compatible product. I'm gonna be a bit repetitive here, but what the hell...

Let's see if they're still making a big deal about it when WotC and other publishers are producing materials for the current D&D rules set...
 

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPeople want to publish d20-style games, and wish to do so without outside interference.

Why? Why do people want to publish d20-style games? Because D&D is king of the hill. And that's why they'll want to publish materials using the GSL or whatever the hell they're calling it these days.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambMost publishers will inevitably see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead-end, and use the OGL for 3.x-compatible games or OGL variant games instead.

What would be the point of that? If you're going to shoot to have that little market share using a license, you might as well forgo using the license and run with your own game engine. You get the same number of customers and far fewer legal worries.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAs a result of all this, we're going to see some pretty major fragmentation of the rpg industry.

No, we're going to see the status quo: D&D's share, then everyone else divides up the sliver of pie that's left.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPathfinder is the first symptom of this fragmentation. There's already a bunch of publishers lining up to create products compatible with Pathfinder, and that's only the beginning.

You and numbers. Two is a bunch now? And when I read about them on TBP, I said, "Who?!"

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe customer base for 3.x-compatible rpgs, and especially OGL-based rpgs will be smaller than the 4e, but it's irrelevant because the OGL/3.x has longevity.

Tell me this in five years when Paizo is releasing the second edition of Pathfinder...

Or have you not noticed that games released under the OGL have had revisions, evolved, etc.? We recently played Spycraft 2.0 after having played Spycraft 1.0 when it came out. My 1.0 books weren't all that useful in the 2.0 game...

Seanchai

Quote from: Seanchai(Seanchai contemptuously and snarkily faps away at his keyboard in frothing geek rage :haw: )

Seanchai

Need a hug, sugar plum? :)
 
The third-party-support for 4e will be less numerous and inspiring than it ever was for 3e, and will be shorter-lived by far. I understand the reality of this is difficult for you to accept, doubting Thomas that you are, but the climate for the rpg industry has changed.

Oh, and if Paizo doesn't sell at least 10,000 copies of Pathfinder, I'd be amazed. They'll likely sell more than double that. :cool: They'll eventually produce some 4e material, but Paizo's clever enough to realize that while the market for 4e is strong, it is also very temporary, with a most unforgiving license for third-party publishers. They won't put all their eggs in one basket. They can acquire more long-term revenue from Pathfinder, and fiddle with 4e for the short period of time it's in print.

The 4e core rules will surely sell much more than Pathfinder, but it's mostly irrelevant, as 4e will only be in print a short while, say...five or six years or so. And you're right, there's a good possibility of another edition for Pathfinder. If there is, it means there's a strong demand for their product, a product released under the OGL that 3.x was released under, which only proves my point even further. :)

It's important to realize that 4e is an experiment. Hasbro is attempting to switch D&D over almost entirely to a subscription-based service. They're not yet able to do that, so 4e is the compromise for where they really want to go.

Also keep in mind that Hasbro is trying to promote the GSL, which is the license for 4e, but most publishers are rejecting it. However, a clever publisher could, for example, use the OGL to create a mostly-compatible 4e game, with Vancian magic, and a more traditional tone and setting, though Hasbro is hoping few publishers realize that. That, right there, is an example of an OGL-variant game. :) If even one publisher succeeded at doing that, other publishers would follow suit. There'd be more OGL-variant games, more 3.x-derived games, and more 4.x-derived games. Ironically, the OGL could actually help promote 4e, though Hasbro is too short-sighted to realize it....

I haven't played D&D since the heyday of Ad&D 1e.  I have played a couple of D20 variants, and I've read, but never played 3e. All that said, I think senchai is 100% right, and mildly entertaining to boot. I might even check out 4e, myself, it sounds kind of neat. Whatever, I'll almost certainly give it a read.

Quote from: RPGPunditI think that it would be absurd to suggest that 4e will be a "flop" in the sense of not turning a profit for WoTC.  But that's usually not the standard in most businesses (especially at WoTC's scale) for judging "success".  

Success in business usually consists in not just making a profit, but making MORE profit than you used to.  And that's going to be the real question: whether 4e actually manages to be MORE successful than 3e was.

...for Hasbro.

Pre-Hasbro-WotC reaped the initial profits of 3e while Hasbro-WotC had to make do with the long tail of 3.0 and the spike of 3.5.

So yes, 4e can very well be a success in every sense for Hasbro.


No one argues that 3e was a huge success for WotC despite the fact that they didn't manage to get D&D back to the level of success it has had during TSR's best days.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambYou're correct, of course. 4e will do well.....initially. But the thing to keep in mind is that there's no real future in 4e for third-party publishers since Hasbro has made it pretty clear that they now reject the OGL and everything it stands for.

(...)

As a result of all this, we're going to see some pretty major fragmentation of the rpg industry. Pathfinder is the first symptom of this fragmentation.

(...)

We're going to see more OGL products. We'll also see more third-party game companies marketing their own systems.

Maybe I am missing your point but how is that any different from the time before d20/OGL?

Game companies and designers came up with their own systems all the time. Sometimes they were innovative and original (Ghostbusters, Amber), sometimes they were clones (Palladium, Arduin), and sometimes they were in between.

Also: Why do you think that WotC's weal and woe will rely on the success and/or abundance of third-party publishers? Didn't TSR, White Wolf, Games Workshop, Steve Jackson, etc, up to WotC itself arrive at their spots all by themselves?

I predict that I will be mildly interested but won't end up buying or playing it.

Quote from: Dirk RemmeckeNo one argues that 3e was a huge success for WotC despite the fact that they didn't manage to get D&D back to the level of success it has had during TSR's best days.

Heck, nothing short of the uninvention of MMORPGs could get D&D back to the level fo success it had during TSR's best days. The gaming market has changed; even though CRPGs, MMORPGs, and other computer games don't scratch the same itch as tabletops, their very existence means that there's another big player in the hobby games market looking for players, and the pie's got to be shared with it.

Quote from: Dirk RemmeckeMaybe I am missing your point but how is that any different from the time before d20/OGL?

Game companies and designers came up with their own systems all the time. Sometimes they were innovative and original (Ghostbusters, Amber), sometimes they were clones (Palladium, Arduin), and sometimes they were in between.

Also: Why do you think that WotC's weal and woe will rely on the success and/or abundance of third-party publishers? Didn't TSR, White Wolf, Games Workshop, Steve Jackson, etc, up to WotC itself arrive at their spots all by themselves?

These are all fair questions. The arrival of 3e and the OGL completely transformed the mental climate of the rpg industry into something new. Back in the "old days" when game companies were creating their own systems, there really weren't as many people publishing stuff. But when d20 and the OGL came out, people suddenly realized, "holy crap, we can be publishers too!" That realization encouraged people to embrace 3.x and the OGL, and helped to solidify D&D as a brand.

Don't get me wrong...3.x would have been successful anyway, but it was even more so because of d20 and the OGL.

Quote from: WarthurHeck, nothing short of the uninvention of MMORPGs could get D&D back to the level fo success it had during TSR's best days. The gaming market has changed; even though CRPGs, MMORPGs, and other computer games don't scratch the same itch as tabletops, their very existence means that there's another big player in the hobby games market looking for players, and the pie's got to be shared with it.

This statement bears notice. Hasbro wants the MMORPG market. There's money to be made there, and if they manage for D&D to become mostly an online subscription-based service, they'll do so. They can't do it yet, because they aren't ready and the fan base isn't ready for it, but they're eyeing the MMO market hungrily, and you can bet there's a high probability that's where the D&D brand will be focused within another decade. The Digital Initiative is the first evidence of that.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe third-party-support for 4e will be less numerous and inspiring than it ever was for 3e, and will be shorter-lived by far.

So how many times have you won the lottery now? Oh, that's right - none. Your amazing powers of prediction must just be limited to just 4e...

I know you've got your hate on, then a pair of blinders, then some ear plugs, but seriously, dude, take a look around. How many publishers stuck with 3e after 3.5 was released? Is there really a line at the door of the folks who are doing OSRIC?

I know you don't grok such things as math or understand ratios, hence the claims about the size of your winky, but let's try some anyway.

Let's say that 50,000 people stick with 3.5 and that the rest (4,450,000) move on to 4e. Let's also say that if Paizo sticks with 3.5, they can capture 75% of that market, but if they move to 4e, they'll only get 5%.

That would mean that they'd have 37,500 3.5 customers. Sounds good, right? Now let's see how many 4e customers they'd have. Why, it's 222,500. Hmmmn...222,500 versus 37,500 customers.

I wonder which would bring in more money. Let's ask the puppets on Sesame Street, as you surely don't know...("Ve have more customers vith 4e blah blah blah").

Quote from: Sacrificial LambI understand the reality of this is difficult for you to accept, doubting Thomas that you are, but the climate for the rpg industry has changed.

Some aspects have. Others have not.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambOh, and if Paizo doesn't sell at least 10,000 copies of Pathfinder, I'd be amazed.

Prepare to be amazed.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey'll eventually produce some 4e material, but Paizo's clever enough to realize that while the market for 4e is strong, it is also very temporary, with a most unforgiving license for third-party publishers. They won't put all their eggs in one basket.

Yeah. 'Cause the 3e and 3.5 markets were long term. And, clearly, publishers were hesitant to climb aboard the 3e and 3.5 bandwagon...

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe 4e core rules will surely sell much more than Pathfinder, but it's mostly irrelevant, as 4e will only be in print a short while, say...five or six years or so.

Well, so will the Pathfinder rules. You don't seriously think Paizo's going to go longer than that without updating the core rules, do you?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAnd you're right, there's a good possibility of another edition for Pathfinder. If there is, it means there's a strong demand for their product, a product released under the OGL that 3.x was released under, which only proves my point even further.

It would prove your point if demand for the product was the reason for the new edition. However, that's likely not to be it.

Consider that most folks who will be playing Pathfinder will get the core rulebook. It's designed to be useful for players and GMs. That set - players and GMs - will also get the little $2 setting book for players. However, when it comes to the actual Pathfinder adventures, well, only the GMs will be getting those.

That means the most successful model will be based around selling core books and supplements. Eventually, Paizo will hit the same wall WotC has: there's nothing new left to publish books about. Also, Paizo can charge more for core books. So reboots are fiscially attractive even if actual demand is low.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAlso keep in mind that Hasbro is trying to promote the GSL, which is the license for 4e, but most publishers are rejecting it.

Why don't you give us a list of "most publishers" who are rejecting the GSL so we can contact you next year, show you the list again, and laugh, laugh, laugh while you turn red.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambHowever, a clever publisher could, for example, use the OGL to create a mostly-compatible 4e game, with Vancian magic, and a more traditional tone and setting, though Hasbro is hoping few publishers realize that.

They don't have to hope - doing so would require more man hours than simply using the GSL.

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe arrival of 3e and the OGL completely transformed the mental climate of the rpg industry into something new. Back in the "old days" when game companies were creating their own systems, there really weren't as many people publishing stuff.

Big list o' RPGs (http://www.darkshire.net/jhkim/rpg/encyclopedia/) Yeah, boy, it wasn't until the OGL that there were a lot of people publishing stuff.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambBut when d20 and the OGL came out, people suddenly realized, "holy crap, we can be publishers too!" That realization encouraged people to embrace 3.x and the OGL, and helped to solidify D&D as a brand.

Not quite. People realized, "Holy crap, we can tap into the largest consumer base in the industry without of a lot of man hours wasted on writing, developing, and testing a system!"

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThis statement bears notice. Hasbro wants the MMORPG market. There's money to be made there, and if they manage for D&D to become mostly an online subscription-based service, they'll do so. They can't do it yet, because they aren't ready and the fan base isn't ready for it, but they're eyeing the MMO market hungrily, and you can bet there's a high probability that's where the D&D brand will be focused within another decade. The Digital Initiative is the first evidence of that.

More dumbness. Dude, there's already a D&D MMO. WotC and Hasbro don't need to wait for anything to try and enter the market - they're already there.

And they need to lure tabletop players over to the MMO "darkside"? Really? I mean, it's a numbers thing again and you and numbers, but...Do you realize how massively, massively current MMO players outnumber current tabletop D&D players? If every single D&D player world-wide became a D&D MMO player overnight, the D&D MMO would still be a blip on Blizzard's radar.

If WotC and Hasbro want to break into the MMO, they need to focus on stealing World of Warcraft players, not converting old tabletop fogies.

Seanchai

The Marvel Universe Diceless is an excellent example.

But, on the other hand, I don't think its an applicable one.  D&D, the brand name, is big in the RPG industry in a way Marvel isn't.  Because Marvel has a million fingers in a million pies.  There isn't ONE comic that defines Marvel and Marvels success.  Even big events like Civil War and the like - some tank (Atlantis Attacks) some are huge successes (Age of Apocalypse).  But the success of the Marvel Comics line doesn't hinge on that one series.  Spider clones didn't kill Marvel comics, and noone judges Marvel because an RPG failed.

D&D, on the other hand, as a commercial entity, hinges on the success of 4ed.  Yes, previous editions have and will continue to have life beyond their print runs, but the commercial enterprise of D&D is entirely focused on 4ed.  Theres nothing else to fall back on.  The MMO tanked, and the CCG attempt was fun but futile, and the movies sucked.  Its RPG or nuthin, though the MInis game is becoming equally as important financially as the RPG.

But, that being said, within the RPG industry, the D&D name is a virtual license to print money.  Unless they REALLY fuck up 4ed big time (and I see no signs that they have, anti-posters screeching hyperbole aside), they'll be profitable enough in all likelihood to keep the line afloat, at least for a while.

What could doom 4ed is if third-party 3.5 material starts to outsell 4ed books.

Quote from: SeanchaiMore dumbness. Dude, there's already a D&D MMO. WotC and Hasbro don't need to wait for anything to try and enter the market - they're already there.

Yeah, an MMO that has a miniscule player base, and a horrible reputation, and sucks ass.  They are there, but they need to salt the earth and start over from scratch.  D&DO has been an epic failure.

QuoteAnd they need to lure tabletop players over to the MMO "darkside"? Really? I mean, it's a numbers thing again and you and numbers, but...Do you realize how massively, massively current MMO players outnumber current tabletop D&D players? If every single D&D player world-wide became a D&D MMO player overnight, the D&D MMO would still be a blip on Blizzard's radar.

This is true, and people need to realize this.  The 4ed goal isn't to bring D&D players to MMOs, its to bring MMO players to D&D.

As far as hobbies go, role playing games are about as niche as you can get.  Its a tiny base, with a fractured and splintered fanbase.  Many D&D players don't play anything else.  Players of many other games won't play D&D.    And while the fanbase of every other game combined likely doesn't add up to D&D, even factoring into it that a large number DO cross over many games, D&Ds total fanbase likely doesn't equal the number of people who actively play, say, Scrabble, around the world.

Quote from: HackmastergeneralD&Ds total fanbase likely doesn't equal the number of people who actively play, say, Scrabble, around the world.

I'm quite sure that this is true.

Holy shit....this subject really is a sore spot with you, isn't it? Look, if you're gonna keep up with this passive-aggressive shit, then maybe you'd feel more comfortable at RPGnet. You'd blend right in there.

Quote from: SeanchaiSo how many times have you won the lottery now? Oh, that's right - none. Your amazing powers of prediction must just be limited to just 4e...

I don't play the lottery. Next?

Quote from: SeanchaiI know you've got your hate on, then a pair of blinders, then some ear plugs, but seriously, dude, take a look around. How many publishers stuck with 3e after 3.5 was released? Is there really a line at the door of the folks who are doing OSRIC?

Actually, Seanchai...your posts have been some of the most hateful posts on the site for a long while now, and for the life of me, I don't know why. I'm certainly not the only target of your bile, and you obviously have an axe to grind. Maybe you just need to take a break from the Internet..? Because, honestly, these snarky little dick-waving contests you like to engage in are gettin' a little old and tired.

As far as publishers' rejection of 3e.....any idiot could have foreseen that publishers would embrace 3.5 instead. 3.5 is newer, has an OGL, and the game systems for both are almost identical. Going with 3.5 was a no-brainer. 3e and 3.5 are so much alike that leaving one for the other is irrelevant. On the other hand, 4e is an entirely different animal. That's why people are making a big deal about Pathfinder. If Pathfinder does what it should, then both the 3e and 3.5 players can get their game on with it.

And as for OSRIC...? It's gonna sound arrogant to say this, but what the fuck. I always knew OSRIC would never succeed big-time in the market. I totally dig AD&D, and absolutely respect what the OSRIC guys are doing, but it's best not to delve into that issue here, because it'd be a looong discussion. It might be worth a thread of its own though. Another time. :D

Quote from: SeanchaiI know you don't grok such things as math or understand ratios, hence the claims about the size of your winky, but let's try some anyway.

Seanchai, dear boy...this is the second time you've brought up the subject of my precious cock....without provocation, I might add. You seem rather fascinated with it. Is there something important you'd like to share with the rest of the class..? ;)

Quote from: SeanchaiLet's say that 50,000 people stick with 3.5 and that the rest (4,450,000) move on to 4e. Let's also say that if Paizo sticks with 3.5, they can capture 75% of that market, but if they move to 4e, they'll only get 5%.

That would mean that they'd have 37,500 3.5 customers. Sounds good, right? Now let's see how many 4e customers they'd have. Why, it's 222,500. Hmmmn...222,500 versus 37,500 customers.

I wonder which would bring in more money. Let's ask the puppets on Sesame Street, as you surely don't know...("Ve have more customers vith 4e blah blah blah").

You know what your problem is? You don't listen. Never did I say that Paizo would never publish 4e material. I said there's no future there. The 4e market is temporary. Paizo specifically said they're not creating a 4e version of Pathfinder. Doing so would defeat the entire purpose of creating the game. They might create a Pathfinder 2.0, but I guarantee you it won't be drastically different from Pathfinder 1.0.

On the subject of 4e, Paizo will probably publish some 4e-compatible material....eventually. But any 4e stuff Paizo creates won't outsell their 3.x material. You know why? Three reasons:

(1.) Pathfinder is meant to be mostly 3.x-compliant, and yet there's already a huge buzz about it.

(2.) 4e will be in print for only a handful of years, and because of Hasbro's crappy, restrictive license for 4e, Paizo won't be fiddle-fucking with 4e for very long anyway.

(3.) The 4e GSL is too restrictive and incomplete as well, as WoTC/Hasbro legal hasn't seen fit to fully release it, thus Paizo won't be getting any 4e market for a couple years. While the GSL is in Limbo, Paizo has to release something. They can't put their entire business on hold while Hasbro is fucking around, so they created a 3.x-compliant game. Their 3.x material sells as great as ever, and they've sensed a market for 3.x material, hence we have Pathfinder. This situation is not Paizo's fault. Blame Hasbro for that asshattery. Paizo's just following the only market they can. Asking them to create a proper 4e product by this summer with no time to prepare is lunacy anyway.

Pathfinder is now Paizo's main project, and the final version of it is due out in 2009. Therefore, they probably won't have any major 4e material out before 2010.

So...since Paizo is forced to release something and not let their entire fucking business be kept on hold at the whims of Hasbro, they can't release 4e stuff until years later. That would be partway through Hasbro's publishing cycle.

Shortly after Pathfinder 2.0 comes out (which will be 90% the same as Pathfinder 1.0), 4e will be going out of print. I explained this to you before. Paizo won't put all their eggs in one basket. Staying only with 3.x or only with 4e is stupid.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambI understand the reality of this is difficult for you to accept, doubting Thomas that you are, but the climate for the rpg industry has changed.

Quote from: SeanchaiSome aspects have. Others have not.

Yes.

Quote from: SeanchaiPrepare to be amazed.

I wouldn't count on my amazement if I were you.

Quote from: SeanchaiYeah. 'Cause the 3e and 3.5 markets were long term. And, clearly, publishers were hesitant to climb aboard the 3e and 3.5 bandwagon...

Were..? Are. They still exist. That market will not magically disappear overnight. The existence of the OGL has seen to that. And Pathfinder is evidence of it.

Quote from: SeanchaiWell, so will the Pathfinder rules. You don't seriously think Paizo's going to go longer than that without updating the core rules, do you?

They'll likely update them, but Pathfinder 2.0 won't be a drastic change, and will probably be just as 3.x-compatible as Pathfinder 1.0 will be.

Quote from: SeanchaiIt would prove your point if demand for the product was the reason for the new edition. However, that's likely not to be it.

Consider that most folks who will be playing Pathfinder will get the core rulebook. It's designed to be useful for players and GMs. That set - players and GMs - will also get the little $2 setting book for players. However, when it comes to the actual Pathfinder adventures, well, only the GMs will be getting those.

That means the most successful model will be based around selling core books and supplements. Eventually, Paizo will hit the same wall WotC has: there's nothing new left to publish books about. Also, Paizo can charge more for core books. So reboots are fiscially attractive even if actual demand is low.

They'll likely publish more than just adventure modules, and if they publish Pathfinder 2.0, then so be it. It won't be dramatically different from Pathfinder 1.0, and it won't be compatible with 4e.

Quote from: SeanchaiWhy don't you give us a list of "most publishers" who are rejecting the GSL so we can contact you next year, show you the list again, and laugh, laugh, laugh while you turn red.

The fucked-up thing is that you'd actually derive pleasure from something like that. I weep for you.

Quote from: SeanchaiThey don't have to hope - doing so would require more man hours than simply using the GSL.

Seanchai

You were more entertaining when you were fixating on my cock.

Oh, and if you're still confused about the effect of the OGL on the success of 3e, read what Ryan Dancey had to say...

http://www.feartheboot.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4285&start=15

And here's the quote....

Quote from: Redhammer the OldDo you think the OGL actually helped sales?

Quote from: RSDanceyYes, I'm virtually certain that it did, but probably not the way you're thinking.

Having an "open" version of D&D around didn't move the sales needle very much. Our target demographic shows no qualms about buying into closed platform products (iPod, XBox, cell phones, etc.)

However, we knew that on release, D&D 3 had an uphill battle to fight for marketshare vs. AD&D1 and AD&D2, both of which had massive libraries of content, and huge numbers of players.

The OGL/D20 project allowed the amount of content available for D&D 3 to grow at a rate far faster than anything any one company could have hoped to produce, which gave us a tactical market advantage early on -- rather than making people wait months (or years) for content they might feel necessary before upgrading to D&D3, 3rd parties produced content that eased that transition early in the process. That contributed to a massive shift on the part of the player community out of AD&D1 and AD&D2 and into D&D3 very rapidly.

Ryan

That last quote, SL, is very interesting.  I'd never read/heard it before. What Dancey seems to be saying is that at the time WotC was worried about the previous editions (note the plural!) as a sort of competition. The open nature was supposed to counter the effect of people having libraries of stuff, even if the game was out of print, to use in avoidance of upgrading.

Only now, that license supports the possibility that the previous version (or a close facsimile thereof) can remain in print. Ironic.

Quote from: HackmastergeneralYeah, an MMO that has a miniscule player base, and a horrible reputation, and sucks ass.  They are there, but they need to salt the earth and start over from scratch.  D&DO has been an epic failure.

Indeed.

Quote from: HackmastergeneralThe 4ed goal isn't to bring D&D players to MMOs, its to bring MMO players to D&D.

And, as far as I'm concerned, it's doomed to failure.

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAs far as publishers' rejection of 3e.....any idiot could have foreseen that publishers would embrace 3.5 instead.

And any idiot can see they'll do the same with 4e.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb3e and 3.5 are so much alike that leaving one for the other is irrelevant.

I can see how you'd consider the move irrelevant, but for the business owner who has to relearn a new system, change internal processes, perhap release errata, watch his 3e backstock suddenly become devalued, etc., there's a bit more to it than you're assuming.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThat's why people are making a big deal about Pathfinder.

Correction. Some people are making a big deal of Pathfinder. As you know, some consider it the dumbest thing Paizo could have done.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambSeanchai, dear boy...this is the second time you've brought up the subject of my precious cock....without provocation, I might add.

Not quite. You're slapping your dick in our face, saying, "Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about! I can predict the future!"

But, also, your inability to conceptualize numbers amuses me. I know you're a dude with a big ego, so I naturally assume you strut about, thinking you're sporting a Holmes.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambYou know what your problem is? You don't listen.

You know what your problem is? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. It's clear you don't know anything about business, about the RPG business, or about the affect the OGL has had on the industry.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambNever did I say that Paizo would never publish 4e material.

Yeah. See, the point is, instead of selling more 4e product to more customers, they'll be using the same amount of internal resources to produce Pathfinder products for a drastically smaller customer base.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey might create a Pathfinder 2.0, but I guarantee you it won't be drastically different from Pathfinder 1.0.

How much is your guarantee for? If the folks here on the RPGsite purchase Pathfinder and then feel the second edition of Pathfinder is drastically different, will you refund their money?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey can't put their entire business on hold while Hasbro is fucking around...

...Pathfinder is now Paizo's main project, and the final version of it is due out in 2009.

This is exactly the kind of logic I expect from you. Paizo can't wait until June, so they're going to hurry up and start working on a product that'll be released...in 2009.
 

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey'll likely update them, but Pathfinder 2.0 won't be a drastic change, and will probably be just as 3.x-compatible as Pathfinder 1.0 will be.

In other words, kinda sorta compatible. I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank. Folks are willing to give all kinds of d20 stuff a whirl - just not for their D&D games.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe fucked-up thing is that you'd actually derive pleasure from something like that. I weep for you.

You would weep, you overly sensitive priss. Dude, this is the Internet. Seriously. Cowboy up.

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiIndeed.



And, as far as I'm concerned, it's doomed to failure.

Seanchai

Well, sure.  But I don't think 4ed is doomed to failure.  I think, so far, it looks to be a fun and interestinf system.

I just hope WOTC isn't BANKING on getting a huge chunk of MMO players into the fold.  Cause they are in trouble if they are.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhile this is happening, more players will explore the viability of other non-20ish rpgs, especially games with OGLs. No one single game has to "defeat" D&D. Within ten years, Hasbro will, at least partially, defeat itself in the rpg arena.

I find what you are saying intriguing, and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.  More importantly, I stand as an example of the truth of your proposition.

I left gaming in the late 90's.  I focused on more important things, like getting laid and going to concerts.  Oh, and finishing college.  Then 3.0 came out, and I was like "Hey, D&D.  I remember that. I should pick that back up."  But I didn't.  Then 3.5 came out, and I was like "Whew!" and picked that up instead.  Ran a campaign for a few years, bought all the splatbooks that weren't tied to a specific world.  I'm part of that group that made 3.0 and 3.5 such a monster success, gamers who returned to gaming because of the new edition.

Then they announced 4E.  And stopped making new books (unless you call those $20 advertisements they've been releasing "new books").  But I had a gaming budget set aside.  So I bought more miniatures for a month or two, but that rapidly exceeded my ability to paint.  So guess what I did next.  I started buying some of those weird "Indie" games I'd heard about.  I got Dogs in the Vineyard, and Spirit of the Century, and Burning Wheel.  Then I started picking up old used games I loved years ago.

I won't be picking up 4E.  I don't need it.  3.5 is fine for D&D, and I'd really rather focus on more interesting things and not buy into another game that will just end up creating another massive block of books on my shelves I never touch (like my 2E collection).

4E could be great.  It probably won't suck half as hard as I think, but I won't be picking it up.  My players won't be picking it up.  We might pick up stuff like Pathfinder.

I can't imagine I'm alone in this.

Quote from: SeanchaiAnd any idiot can see they'll do the same with 4e.

Temporarily. :)  

Quote from: SeanchaiI can see how you'd consider the move irrelevant, but for the business owner who has to relearn a new system, change internal processes, perhap release errata, watch his 3e backstock suddenly become devalued, etc., there's a bit more to it than you're assuming.

I can see how the current situation can be so confusing for you. When Pathfinder and other OGL variants enjoy brisk sales from the 3.x market, you'll still be confused. But don't worry your pretty little head about it. Everything will be all right.

Quote from: SeanchaiCorrection. Some people are making a big deal of Pathfinder. As you know, some consider it the dumbest thing Paizo could have done.

Relax. Paizo will be fine.

Quote from: SeanchaiNot quite. You're slapping your dick in our face, saying, "Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about! I can predict the future!"

Again with your obsession with my cock. :cool:  You apparently can't get enough of it. The truth is, Seanchai, you scream for attention with every post you make. You constantly troll because you're desperate for attention. Now that you have it, whatever will you do with it?

And incidentally, what you so conveniently omit is the fact that you snarkily "predict" the future over and over again yourself. But hey, keep fappin' away at that keyboard. It's good for this site to have an  unofficial resident mascot. Our nickname for you can be "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp." :haw:  

Quote from: SeanchaiBut, also, your inability to conceptualize numbers amuses me. I know you're a dude with a big ego, so I naturally assume you strut about, thinking you're sporting a Holmes.

I'm happy to amuse "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp". But please, stop fixating on my banana...:hehe:

Quote from: SeanchaiYou know what your problem is? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. It's clear you don't know anything about business, about the RPG business, or about the affect the OGL has had on the industry.

If you say so, monkey-boy...:)

Quote from: SeanchaiYeah. See, the point is, instead of selling more 4e product to more customers, they'll be using the same amount of internal resources to produce Pathfinder products for a drastically smaller customer base.

Yeaaaah....about that. Look, chief...Paizo has no choice. The GSL for 4e is under NDA, so the only thing that's been confirmed is that it's incomplete. Oh, and that it's not open. In the meantime, Paizo must produce something, so the only alternative they had was to focus on and create a 3.x-compliant product, which they do have a market for.

Furthermore, they would not receive higher market share from 4e than 3.x, because the 4e market won't last, and the OGL-variant market will. 4e has no OGL, remember? It won't be in print long, because of the "planned obsolescence model". A smart company needs to focus on long-term issues, not just the short-term.

Eventually, the 4e market will dry up while all those OGL-variant games will still be happily chugging along, and we can thank Hasbro for that.

Quote from: SeanchaiHow much is your guarantee for? If the folks here on the RPGsite purchase Pathfinder and then feel the second edition of Pathfinder is drastically different, will you refund their money?

When Pathfinder performs well in the market, will you stop being an Internet troll?

Quote from: SeanchaiThis is exactly the kind of logic I expect from you. Paizo can't wait until June, so they're going to hurry up and start working on a product that'll be released...in 2009.

They have a beta for sale in a few months, and it's nearly as much in demand as the final version of the game. So, technically, they'll have something out for the game this year.
 

Quote from: SeanchaiIn other words, kinda sorta compatible. I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank. Folks are willing to give all kinds of d20 stuff a whirl - just not for their D&D games.

Like Castles & Crusades "tanked"? Like Conan "tanked"? Like Mutants & Masterminds "tanked"? Like True 20 "tanked"? Like Spycraft 2.0 "tanked"? These OGL games all moved away from "bog standard" 3e. They all performed well in the marketplace. You know, I'm actually starting to feel a little sorry for you, Seanchai. Before, I thought you were only an Internet troll, but now I realize you're hopelessly myopic as well.

Quote from: SeanchaiYou would weep, you overly sensitive priss. Dude, this is the Internet. Seriously. Cowboy up.

Seanchai

Look! It's Internet machismo! Thanks for the advice, darling. You can return to your bridge with the other trolls now....:haw:

Quote from: JackalopeI can't imagine I'm alone in this.

You're not [[EDIT: Invite removed]]

Quote from: HackmastergeneralBut I don't think 4ed is doomed to failure.

I agree. I'm just waiting for the big wave of post release switching.

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambTemporarily.

I would say I don't understand how you can't see this, but it's clear you simply don't want to understand: the 3e and 3.5 markets were temporary, too. You say 4e is going away in a few years...well, so did the previous OGL markets.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhen Pathfinder and other OGL variants enjoy brisk sales from the 3.x market, you'll still be confused.

And in your crazy moon language, "brisk sales" means 2,000 copies.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAgain with your obsession with my cock.  You apparently can't get enough of it.

You know, you're right. I shouldn't even mention it. I was wrong. Given your exaggerated, emotional response to criticism of your ideas, your innate grasp of logic, and your concern about people on the Internet being mean, you clearly have a vagina, not a penis.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAnd incidentally, what you so conveniently omit is the fact that you snarkily "predict" the future over and over again yourself.

Only in as much as it takes to counter your ASCII drool. Moreover, I don't have to predict the future so much as repeat back to you what's happened in the past...

Quote from: Sacrificial LambIt's good for this site to have an  unofficial resident mascot. Our nickname for you can be "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp."

Dudette, if you're going to try and insult someone, at least do it with style.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPaizo has no choice. The GSL for 4e is under NDA, so the only thing that's been confirmed is that it's incomplete. Oh, and that it's not open. In the meantime, Paizo must produce something, so the only alternative they had was to focus on and create a 3.x-compliant product, which they do have a market for.

4e isn't coming down until June. They have product lined up through the end of the year. In June, they can pick up their copies of 4e and start designing.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambFurthermore, they would not receive higher market share from 4e than 3.x, because the 4e market won't last, and the OGL-variant market will.

First, the 3e and 3.5 markets didn't last either, remember?

Second, RPG products make the majority of their sales in the first three months after their release. A product doesn't have to be viable five years later to be a money maker.

Third, no, they wouldn't receive a higher market share from 4e. There are more producers in the 4e market. However, there are also many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many more customers in the 4e market. So it doesn't matter if their market share is large or smaller - they'll be selling more product (at the same price, using the same internal resources) to more people.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambA smart company needs to focus on long-term issues, not just the short-term.

Absolutely. But we're talking about playing in other people's playgrounds.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambEventually, the 4e market will dry up while all those OGL-variant games will still be happily chugging along, and we can thank Hasbro for that.

They certainly might all still be there and using the same system. But what we're really talking about is companies choosing to do less business than they otherwise could, not whether or not there will be folks to sell OGL products to.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhen Pathfinder performs well in the market, will you stop being an Internet troll?

I'm not an "Internet troll" now, so I couldn't stop.

However, I'm guessing from your evasion, you're not confident enough in your prediction that the second edition of Pathfinder won't be drastically different fromthe first to guarantee folks here their money when that occurs.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambLike Castles & Crusades "tanked"? Like Conan "tanked"?

Yeah.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambLike Mutants & Masterminds "tanked"? Like True 20 "tanked"? Like Spycraft 2.0 "tanked"? These OGL games all moved away from "bog standard" 3e.

"I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank." I quoted myself and highlighted the relevant portion for the folks with low reading comprehension scores (i.e., you).

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiI agree. I'm just waiting for the big wave of post release switching.

And notice how the biggest critics will suddenly morph into the biggest cheerleaders :D

Regards,
David R

Quote from: David RAnd notice how the biggest critics will suddenly morph into the biggest cheerleaders

*cough* Spinchat at TBP *cough*

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiI was wrong.

Seanchai

And really, your entire post can be reduced to that. :)

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAnd really, your entire post can be reduced to that.

I am so going to enjoy resurrecting this when the market beats Paizo down. Any preference as to how your crow is prepared?

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiI am so going to enjoy resurrecting this when the market beats Paizo down. Any preference as to how your crow is prepared?

Seanchai

Still pissing all over the thread, Bo-Bo? :piss2:

Is it wrong of me not to care about his opinions one way or another, but still think Seanchai is the best poster here simply because its so amusing to watch him go?

Never mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....



Entertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!

Quote from: SpikeNever mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....

Well, it's not Lamb's fault. I laid into him first. He was just responding as best he knew how. His style is decidedly shortbus, but I set the tone for the exchange.

Quote from: SpikeEntertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!

Okay. Here are some ranks of...well, not exactly random products on Amazon. com.

Pathfinder - Curse of the Crimson Throne #1: #211,040 in Books
Pathfinder Chronicles Gazetter: #185,297 in Books
4e PHB: #4,139 in Books
4e Core Rulebook Gift Set: #98 in Books

Now, I'm not trying to suggest that Pathfinder won't sell 10,000 copies or that 4e will be wildly more popular than Pathfinder. I'm out and out stating that it's the case one more time.

Ready, Lamb? Get your pissing monkey icon ready. Three. Two. One. Okay! Go!

Seanchai

Quote from: SpikeIs it wrong of me not to care about his opinions one way or another, but still think Seanchai is the best poster here simply because its so amusing to watch him go?

Never mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....



Entertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!

What do you think this is? A Roman Colosseum? ;)