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Dice Mechanic and probability

Started by Artifacts of Amber, December 16, 2013, 08:44:03 AM

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Artifacts of Amber

I am running a bare bones system consisting of 10-11 pages including the magic system. A player who is also mechanically minded suggest this change to the rules.

Original rules are basically stat or skill plus a d10 to beat a difficulty number.
Multiple actions required you to -1 for each additional action and divide your d10 amongst the actions evenly any remainder was assigned as desired.

So I take three actions I would roll d10 and subtract 2 then divide. by the number of actions.


His suggest was to instead roll a d10 per action apply the multi action penalty then use the lowest roll. So I taking 3 actions, I roll 3d10 take the lowest and subtract 2 from it.


This is a good Idea as it cuts out a step which is math and a pain for some players to do it quickly and removes another choice (what to do with  the remainder) that slows down the action.

I understand the basics of probability but have never had to figure odds on rolling multiple dice and taking the lowest. Does numbers wise this get close enough on a curve not to matter much. I am looking primarily for simplicity which this fits the bill on that but will I have to redo the rest of the system to fit?

Thanks for any help

fuseboy

Anydice.com will give you the odds for situations like this.  For example:

output [lowest 1 of 4d10]


Exploderwizard

You can use this site:

http://anydice.com/

To see probabilities for just about any die roll.

3d10 (much like 3d6) produces a nice bell curve with 16 and 17 having the highest occurance of being rolled.

2d10 produces a steeper curve with an 11 having the highest occurance of being rolled.
Quote from: JonWakeGamers, as a whole, are much like primitive cavemen when confronted with a new game. Rather than \'oh, neat, what\'s this do?\', the reaction is to decide if it\'s a sex hole, then hit it with a rock.

Quote from: Old Geezer;724252At some point it seems like D&D is going to disappear up its own ass.

Quote from: Kyle Aaron;766997In the randomness of the dice lies the seed for the great oak of creativity and fun. The great virtue of the dice is that they come without boxed text.

deadDMwalking

I agree that division is cumbersome, but by taking the lowest of 3d10, you're most frequently going to be using a '1'.  

So you'll take 3 actions; more than 50% of the time your lowest roll will be between a 1 and 3.  If you subtract 3 from your action, you will most often have a 0 (or lower) to divide among your actions.  

If you roll a single die, you will sometimes roll high.  If you rolled a 10 - 2 (=8) divided by 3, your maximum bonus is 2 to divide among your actions.  If you really don't mind having such small numbers (between 0 and 2) the first method is significantly faster and will, on RARE occassions, yield a higher result.  For example, if you rolled 10,10,10 (1 in 1000 chance) you'd actually have 8 points to apply to your three actions (assuming a -2).  

What I would recommend is using a 'step die' for each action.  Assume that a single action allows a d10.  If you take two actions, you reduce it to a d8.  If you take 3 actions, you reduce it to a d6.  To further reward people who focus on a single action, I would subtract 1 for each additional action.

Example: I decide to make 3 actions.  I will roll a d6.  If I roll a 3 or lower, considering I have a -1 to each action, I gain no benefit.  If I roll a 4, 5, or 6, I have 1, 2 or 3 points to spend on my various actions.  

Depending on whether it is even possible to succeed without these points, you may want to eliminate the penalty altogether.
When I say objectively, I mean \'subjectively\'.  When I say literally, I mean \'figuratively\'.  
And when I say that you are a horse\'s ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse\'s ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Artifacts of Amber

Thanks Exploder I used that and it helped clear things up.

deadDMwalking
I had considered what you suggest but right now am keeping the game at using only one dice, Part of its simplicity for me. I built the system to require as little effort to understand as possible but still be somewhat functional. I am willing to accept some lacking in reality to keep some simplicity. Though I do like the idea in general.

As far as having really small chances I could go with not adding in a penalty and that may raise the curve up to something functional, which after running some numbers through that website I have come to realize may be the way to go.

deadDMwalking

If you get rid of the penalty, I don't think you'll have much of an issue if you have people take the LOWEST die, with an additional die rolled for each action (and no additional penalty).  

You're pretty much guaranteeing that if you do 3 things, you'll do all of them POORLY, but since you can do more things, it might b worthwhile.  

If you take a single action, you're equally likely to have a +1 to +10 (10% of any specific bonus) to your action.  You'd be 60% likely to have at least a +5 bonus; if you take 2 actions your chance of a +5 bonus drops to 35%, and if you take 3 actions, your chance of a +5 bonus ~20%.  

Assuming that they'd need something in that range to be successful, it seems like it might work.
When I say objectively, I mean \'subjectively\'.  When I say literally, I mean \'figuratively\'.  
And when I say that you are a horse\'s ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse\'s ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Exploderwizard

Quote from: deadDMwalking;716392If you get rid of the penalty, I don't think you'll have much of an issue if you have people take the LOWEST die, with an additional die rolled for each action (and no additional penalty).  

You're pretty much guaranteeing that if you do 3 things, you'll do all of them POORLY, but since you can do more things, it might b worthwhile.  

If you take a single action, you're equally likely to have a +1 to +10 (10% of any specific bonus) to your action.  You'd be 60% likely to have at least a +5 bonus; if you take 2 actions your chance of a +5 bonus drops to 35%, and if you take 3 actions, your chance of a +5 bonus ~20%.  

Assuming that they'd need something in that range to be successful, it seems like it might work.

Good points. To do an analysis of success chances we would need an idea of what typical stat/skill bonuses are and an idea of the range of target numbers.
Quote from: JonWakeGamers, as a whole, are much like primitive cavemen when confronted with a new game. Rather than \'oh, neat, what\'s this do?\', the reaction is to decide if it\'s a sex hole, then hit it with a rock.

Quote from: Old Geezer;724252At some point it seems like D&D is going to disappear up its own ass.

Quote from: Kyle Aaron;766997In the randomness of the dice lies the seed for the great oak of creativity and fun. The great virtue of the dice is that they come without boxed text.

Artifacts of Amber

Stats range 1 to 10 for basic human with 3-4 being an average. High stat for char is a 7 low is a 2 but average around a 4-5

Skill adds +2 or more to a roll.  Skills are loosely defined. An average weapon skill seems 7-8 or so.  Attack and defense are both skills

Difficulties are

1-3      Easy enough most people can do it without much thought.
4-6      Easy enough a professional or skilled amateur can do without effort.
7-9      Becoming a challenge but still can be performed on average.
10-12      A much more serious challenge with luck coming into play falling into the area of talented professionals
13-15      Very difficult but a skilled, top professional can pull it off.
16-18      Extremely difficulty but doable with luck
19+      Even luck may not help

but all of that can be altered if need be. Only ran two sessions so far.

deadDMwalking

Can you give an example of what three actions might be?  

Would that be like 'attack, defend, juggle'?  

If attack and defend are opposed rolls, do the defender spend an 'action' to defend?  

This is speculation based only on the information provided - so disregard as necessary.

Speculation
If you roll a d10 and add it to your stat which is around +5 and you have a skill bonus for +2 (total bonus +7) if you roll a 10, you might be able to do a total of 3 things of difficulty 10-12.  More likely you will only be able to do 3 things of 7-9 (which you could do anyway even without the d10).  

This would seem to indicate that multiple actions are desireable when you're going to succeed no matter what.  Forget the d10 completely, you just do 400 things with a difficult of less than your ability + skill...  

If you keep the penalty per action, this would go away completely - with a -400 on your check you would not be able to succeed on any task...  

Without understanding why someone would want to make multiple actions, I can't tell whether your system makes sense.  

The thing is, if you're dividing your bonus over multiple actions anyway, the maximum bonus gets very small.  With two actions, your maximum bonus to each is +5, with 3 it is +3, with 4 or more it +2.  


A d12 may be a better option if you want to divide it among a variety of results (d12 divides by 2, 3, 4, 6 while d10 divides by 2,5).  

There are some other mechanics that you might want to consider to keep multiple actions simple but still penalize people for making them.  Just spitballing, but here's one:

Suggestion
If you take 2 actions, treat a roll of 9 or 10 as a 1.  If you take 3 actions, treat a roll of 8, 9 or 10 as a 1.  If you take 4 actions, treat a roll of 7, 8, 9, or 10 as a 1.  Roll 1d10 for EACH action you take, and add the relevant modifier.

Benefit
If you need a 10 to succeed, taking multiple actions is a bad idea.  The more actions you take, the faster you lose the high numbers for your actions.  If you take 3 actions and need a 5 or better, you will succeed only if you roll a 5 or 6 (since 7-10 are counted as a 1) - instead of a 60% chance of success, you have a 20% chance of success.  

Disadvantage
This still lets people succeed on unlimited number of minor tasks (where they don't need the d10 roll at all.

Alternate Suggestion
For each additional task you take, you take a -1 to your attribute and higher die rolls are treated as a 1 (ie, 2 actions 9-10 treated as a 1, 3 actions 8-10 treated as a 1).  

Advantage
If you need a high roll for a particular task, you're encouraged to really focus.  If you could normally succeed on a 5 and take 3 actions (-2 to your attribute and 8-10 are treated as a 1) you will need a 7 or better - only a 10% chance!
When I say objectively, I mean \'subjectively\'.  When I say literally, I mean \'figuratively\'.  
And when I say that you are a horse\'s ass, I mean that the objective truth is that you are a literal horse\'s ass.

There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. - Peter Drucker

Artifacts of Amber

deadDMwalking

three actions in combat may be charge attack and parry.

Attack and defense are only opposed rolls if the other person chooses to roll. So if player A attacks Player B, Player A rolls an attack. Player B can choose to go with his static defensive skill or perform an action to defend and roll the dice adding it to their defensive skill.

your speculation sounds fairly spot on. but since this will seem to mostly effect combat the Dc's to beat up on things are a little higher. I made the monster/bad guys pretty nasty. A slightly gritty sort of game.  However if it got out of hand I would just tell the players to quit abusing the system and being dicks and they would stop. I want a system that mostly works. :)


Though Still on the fence about the multi action penalty not sure if it helps or just complicates.


Each suggestion works well but adds complication that I am studiously avoiding. While I admit they would work I am more concerned with a simple way to get close to a system that mostly works. GM adjudication works fine since it is just me and my gamers.

Thanks for the great suggestions. :)