Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

[Shasarak]

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

Does this count as dying with obesity?


https://nypost.com/2021/05/19/russian-woman-reportedly-suffocated-husband-to-death-with-her-butt/

Your article says outright that the cause of death was asphyxiation. He didn't die from his own obesity.

You never specified whose obesity.  You said died "from" obesity.

[HappyDaze]

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

Does this count as dying with obesity?


https://nypost.com/2021/05/19/russian-woman-reportedly-suffocated-husband-to-death-with-her-butt/

Your article says outright that the cause of death was asphyxiation. He didn't die from his own obesity.

You never specified whose obesity.  You said died "from" obesity.

Regardless, the priciple cause of death was not determined to be obesity.

[Kyle Aaron]

This argument is reminding me of the old joke that people do not die from falls, it's the sudden stop at the end.

[dkabq]

My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.

It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.

.

I basically agree. Where we may disagree is over the weight to put on each "straw" so to speak. If I am old and have a heart condition that is going to kill me within the next year or two, covid tipping the scales isn't nearly as tragic as if I am young and have a heart condition that is going to kill me when I am 80 and covid tips the scales.

I posit that the former case trades "deaths from xxxx" for "deaths with covid and xxxx" (with covid now getting the credit for the death), with those deaths now occurring sooner (on the order of months to a year or two) than they would otherwise. I imagine that the reduction in flu deaths is due to those people that would have died of flu (with comorbidities) instead died of covid (with comorbidities).

Kiero's point is indicative of causes of deaths changing, but the overall number of deaths staying relatively the same.

Don't forget, in the US 16% of people 85+ die every year.

They still died of covid. That's still wrong. But otherwise, I largely agree. I've pointed out in endless posts that expected years of life lost is a more useful metric than a flat number of deaths, which is just a figure used to drum up terror by the fear merchants who pretend to be journalists. Covid is unusual in that the morbidity profile almost perfectly matches the natural morbidity profile (i.e. your chance of dying from covid is proportional to your chance of dying from all other causes). It's very dangerous to those who would be expected to die soon anyway, and of very little risk to everyone else. In many states, the average age of someone dying of covid was higher than the natural lifespan. That's very different from many other diseases, for instance the 1918 flu, which killed the young at very high rates.

I would agree that they died of covid plus their comorbidities.

[dkabq]

People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.

You know how many times in my career I've had EMS deliver a patient to me with a primary complaint of obesity? Zero.

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

I don't doubt that. However, I am sure that many of those EMS-delivered patients were brought in due to a primary complaint that was caused/exacerbated by obesity. By the same token, as Pat has pointed out, the same thing is true for some covid cases. But there are cases where a patient dies from something not covid-related and simply tests positive for covid (the PCR testing cycle numbers so high that yield a large percentage of false positive, and you can "test positive" for covid months after you have it), and that death is counted (incorrectly) as a death from covid.

[Pat]

People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.

You know how many times in my career I've had EMS deliver a patient to me with a primary complaint of obesity? Zero.

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

I don't doubt that. However, I am sure that many of those EMS-delivered patients were brought in due to a primary complaint that was caused/exacerbated by obesity. By the same token, as Pat has pointed out, the same thing is true for some covid cases. But there are cases where a patient dies from something not covid-related and simply tests positive for covid (the PCR testing cycle numbers so high that yield a large percentage of false positive, and you can "test positive" for covid months after you have it), and that death is counted (incorrectly) as a death from covid.

Which wasn't a bad call, when the pandemic first started. After all, if you get covid and die, you typically die within 2 or 3 weeks. If you become fat, or get diabetes or hypertension, you typically live longer than 2 or 3 weeks. Usually decades longer. So if someone dies in the hospital with a host of co-morbidities and a positive test for covid, it's good bet that covid is the proximate cause. Conversely, if someone dies within an hour of a motorcycle crash while testing positive, it's probably the crash not covid. Lacking other information, it's a reasonable assessment.

That said, it's pretty sloppy, and terrible optics, and we should do better. Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

[HappyDaze]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

[Pat]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

Do you believe it didn't happen, despite widespread reporting?

[dkabq]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

This could lead you to believe otherwise:

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-april-7-2020/
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem — some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now, we're still recording it, and we'll — I mean, the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection — the intent is, right now, that those — if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Pino's answer was that one of the two people who was listed as a COVID death actually died in a motorcycle crash. Despite health officials knowing the man died in a motorcycle crash, it is unclear whether or not his death was removed from the overall count in the state.

I do not believe that overall there is a large over-count, as I suspicion that old, sick people with covid are likely to be infected to such an extent that covid contributed to their deaths. However, there have been a number of stories pushed of "perfectly healthy" teenagers/young adults that died of covid, but when you see a picture of them they are obviously obese (i.e., not perfectly healthy), so my trust in the count of the young and healthy is not all that.

As Pat noted, the optics in this regard are terrible. I would extend that to pretty much everything regarding covid.

[3catcircus]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

This could lead you to believe otherwise:

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-april-7-2020/
"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem — some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now, we're still recording it, and we'll — I mean, the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection — the intent is, right now, that those — if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
Pino's answer was that one of the two people who was listed as a COVID death actually died in a motorcycle crash. Despite health officials knowing the man died in a motorcycle crash, it is unclear whether or not his death was removed from the overall count in the state.

I do not believe that overall there is a large over-count, as I suspicion that old, sick people with covid are likely to be infected to such an extent that covid contributed to their deaths. However, there have been a number of stories pushed of "perfectly healthy" teenagers/young adults that died of covid, but when you see a picture of them they are obviously obese (i.e., not perfectly healthy), so my trust in the count of the young and healthy is not all that.

As Pat noted, the optics in this regard are terrible. I would extend that to pretty much everything regarding covid.

That press conference transcript is telling.  The president is doing what he should be - reassuring the public and pledging federal assistance to the states.  And then that asshole Fauci yaps through both sides of his piehole.  He should have been fired right then and there.

Record what other conditions someone had and make it transparent. 

1. Healthy 35-yr old marathon runner died of covid, no underlying conditions.
2. 90 year old died of covid, underlying conditions of end-stage emphysema due to 80 year smoking habit.
3. Died from GSW to the head, had covid.
4. Morbidly obese 19 year old died of covid.

One can clearly see that #1 is concerning and could have been prevented. #2 is expected. #4 could have been prevented. #3 - why are you bothering to test for covid to begin with?

[HappyDaze]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

Do you believe it didn't happen, despite widespread reporting?

Doctors (including MEs) document cause of death (immediate and proximate). I don't think that's really in question. You might be better off questioning who filters those reports to get the numbers they want.

[Pat]

I do not believe that overall there is a large over-count, as I suspicion that old, sick people with covid are likely to be infected to such an extent that covid contributed to their deaths. However, there have been a number of stories pushed of "perfectly healthy" teenagers/young adults that died of covid, but when you see a picture of them they are obviously obese (i.e., not perfectly healthy), so my trust in the count of the young and healthy is not all that.

As Pat noted, the optics in this regard are terrible. I would extend that to pretty much everything regarding covid.

Fully agree. The counts are probably in the correct ballpark, even early in the pandemic. Covid probably was responsible for the vast majority of the deaths attributed to covid.

But fuck, their response was terrible. The correct answer to things like the motorcycle crash should have been to be completely upfront, admit it's wrong, explain why they were using imperfect data and making simplistic assumptions at the start of the pandemic (because speed was more important than total accuracy), and then also explain how they're moving to more rigorous standards, including (ideally) going back through the initial data with a fine toothed comb to ensure it's as accurate as possible.

The absolute worst possible response was to react to the motorcycle crash is to get hostile and defensive, attack the critics, and then obfuscate the process.

[Pat]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

Do you believe it didn't happen, despite widespread reporting?

Doctors (including MEs) document cause of death (immediate and proximate). I don't think that's really in question. You might be better off questioning who filters those reports to get the numbers they want.

That's exactly what I was criticizing, HappyDerp. Read my entire post.

[HappyDaze]

Doctors should make a clinical determination of the actual cause of death.

Do you believe that this isn't happening?

Do you believe it didn't happen, despite widespread reporting?

Doctors (including MEs) document cause of death (immediate and proximate). I don't think that's really in question. You might be better off questioning who filters those reports to get the numbers they want.

That's exactly what I was criticizing, HappyDerp. Read my entire post.

Petty name-calling, Pat? I thought you tried to be better than that.

I did read your whole post, and I'm saying you're pointing fingers at the wrong part of the issue. The doctors do state causes of death. Then those reports get entered into datasets and filtered by others that may or may not themselves be doctors into the garbage statistics that we see.

[3catcircus]

I do not believe that overall there is a large over-count, as I suspicion that old, sick people with covid are likely to be infected to such an extent that covid contributed to their deaths. However, there have been a number of stories pushed of "perfectly healthy" teenagers/young adults that died of covid, but when you see a picture of them they are obviously obese (i.e., not perfectly healthy), so my trust in the count of the young and healthy is not all that.

As Pat noted, the optics in this regard are terrible. I would extend that to pretty much everything regarding covid.

Fully agree. The counts are probably in the correct ballpark, even early in the pandemic. Covid probably was responsible for the vast majority of the deaths attributed to covid.

But fuck, their response was terrible. The correct answer to things like the motorcycle crash should have been to be completely upfront, admit it's wrong, explain why they were using imperfect data and making simplistic assumptions at the start of the pandemic (because speed was more important than total accuracy), and then also explain how they're moving to more rigorous standards, including (ideally) going back through the initial data with a fine toothed comb to ensure it's as accurate as possible.

The absolute worst possible response was to react to the motorcycle crash is to get hostile and defensive, attack the critics, and then obfuscate the process.

But the "experts" can't be seen to be wrong...  Fucks up the narrative that Fauci knows best.

I find it interesting that all these Dem pols who were triple vaxxed and everything are coming down with covid omicron with mild cold symptoms - all at the same time.  Almost as if it's a concerted effort to extract society from a virus that was purposefully or accidentally let loose by a communist government hell-bent on world domination in cahoots with bought-and-paid for Western politicians and government bureaucrats. But that's just crazy talk.