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Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

Started by Zirunel, May 31, 2020, 04:01:23 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Pat

Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.

Chris24601

Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
I think the point though is that can (and does, by the hundreds of thousands annually for decades) happen with any old influenza someone in that compromised condition happens to catch. There's nothing unique about Covid-19 except for the MSM/BigTech/Pharma/Government insisting it's unique so Phizer can sell vaccines that barely work at best for billions of our tax dollars.

Pat

Quote from: Chris24601 on December 19, 2021, 12:51:32 PM
Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
I think the point though is that can (and does, by the hundreds of thousands annually for decades) happen with any old influenza someone in that compromised condition happens to catch. There's nothing unique about Covid-19 except for the MSM/BigTech/Pharma/Government insisting it's unique so Phizer can sell vaccines that barely work at best for billions of our tax dollars.
I don't see how that has anything to do with the cause of death.

Kiero

Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 02:03:29 PM
I don't see how that has anything to do with the cause of death.

Before 2020 cause of death was never classified that way. Which is why the all-cause mortality for 2020 isn't exceptional, because there was no great die-off caused by an exceptional event.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

dkabq

Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
.

I basically agree. Where we may disagree is over the weight to put on each "straw" so to speak. If I am old and have a heart condition that is going to kill me within the next year or two, covid tipping the scales isn't nearly as tragic as if I am young and have a heart condition that is going to kill me when I am 80 and covid tips the scales.

I posit that the former case trades "deaths from xxxx" for "deaths with covid and xxxx" (with covid now getting the credit for the death), with those deaths now occurring sooner (on the order of months to a year or two) than they would otherwise. I imagine that the reduction in flu deaths is due to those people that would have died of flu (with comorbidities) instead died of covid (with comorbidities).

Kiero's point is indicative of causes of deaths changing, but the overall number of deaths staying relatively the same.

Don't forget, in the US 16% of people 85+ die every year.

HappyDaze

Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 05:37:20 PM
Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
.

I basically agree. Where we may disagree is over the weight to put on each "straw" so to speak. If I am old and have a heart condition that is going to kill me within the next year or two, covid tipping the scales isn't nearly as tragic as if I am young and have a heart condition that is going to kill me when I am 80 and covid tips the scales.

I posit that the former case trades "deaths from xxxx" for "deaths with covid and xxxx" (with covid now getting the credit for the death), with those deaths now occurring sooner (on the order of months to a year or two) than they would otherwise. I imagine that the reduction in flu deaths is due to those people that would have died of flu (with comorbidities) instead died of covid (with comorbidities).

Kiero's point is indicative of causes of deaths changing, but the overall number of deaths staying relatively the same.

Don't forget, in the US 16% of people 85+ die every year.
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

dkabq

#3381
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 05:41:36 PM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 05:37:20 PM
Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
.

I basically agree. Where we may disagree is over the weight to put on each "straw" so to speak. If I am old and have a heart condition that is going to kill me within the next year or two, covid tipping the scales isn't nearly as tragic as if I am young and have a heart condition that is going to kill me when I am 80 and covid tips the scales.

I posit that the former case trades "deaths from xxxx" for "deaths with covid and xxxx" (with covid now getting the credit for the death), with those deaths now occurring sooner (on the order of months to a year or two) than they would otherwise. I imagine that the reduction in flu deaths is due to those people that would have died of flu (with comorbidities) instead died of covid (with comorbidities).

Kiero's point is indicative of causes of deaths changing, but the overall number of deaths staying relatively the same.

Don't forget, in the US 16% of people 85+ die every year.
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Except that obesity and hypertension are correlated with other more acute health issues (e.g., hypertension leads to strokes, obesity leads to hypertension and diabetes) .
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/weight-management/adult-overweight-obesity/health-risks
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/high-blood-pressure/in-depth/high-blood-pressure/art-20045868

https://www.wvdhhr.org/bph/oehp/obesity/mortality.htm
Assuming that the 300K deaths/yr from obesity is correct, that puts obesity right up there with covid deaths/yr (414K).

https://www.cdc.gov/bloodpressure/facts.htm
In 2019, more than half a million deaths in the United States had hypertension as a primary or contributing cause.

And IIRC, the average number of comorbidities associated with covid deaths is 2.6. So, on average, people dying with/of covid are not healthy to begin with.

It would be interesting to see hospializations and deaths broken out by age and by some grouping that categorizes health (maybe, no comorbidities, 1 comorbidity, 2 comorbidities, 3 comorbidities, 4+ comorbidities). There might also be sets of correlated comorbidities that ought to be considered as groups.


Kiero

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 05:41:36 PM
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.
Currently running: Tyche\'s Favourites, a historical ACKS campaign set around Massalia in 300BC.

Our podcast site, In Sanity We Trust Productions.

DocJones

The average life expectancy in the US is 79 years.
The average age for Wuhan flu deaths in the US is 81 years.


HappyDaze

Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 06:35:17 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 05:41:36 PM
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.
You know how many times in my career I've had EMS deliver a patient to me with a primary complaint of obesity? Zero.

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

Eirikrautha

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 07:14:35 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 06:35:17 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 05:41:36 PM
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.
You know how many times in my career I've had EMS deliver a patient to me with a primary complaint of obesity? Zero.

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.
Well, folks, since HappyDerp has never seen it, it certainly doesn't happen.  Throw all the statistics out the window; the numbers are irrelevant.

Wait, aren't you the same person upthread who has argued that anecdotes aren't conclusive evidence?  Seems inconsistent...

HappyDaze

Quote from: Eirikrautha on December 19, 2021, 08:06:51 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 07:14:35 PM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 06:35:17 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 05:41:36 PM
People love to point out that obesity and hypertension are why someone died "with" Covid, but neither of these comorbidities tend to be lethal on their own except in the most extreme examples.

Being fat with high blood pressure will kill you just fine by itself, your risk of heart attack, stroke and countless other fatal incidents is hugely increased. If you're old too, it's just a matter of time.

The average age of death with covid is indistinguishable from the average age of death from all causes, because it doesn't take people suddenly in their prime, it finishes off decrepit people a few months earlier than they would have died anyway. Not least because a big chunk of things classified as "covid" are actually pneumonia, traditionally known as "the old man's friend" because it's a kinder way for someone to die than many other means.

For the sake of protecting a few additional months of ill health at the end of someone's already long life, all these bullshit restrictions were brought in. Then for the benefit of those same months of additional life, a risky therapeutic which is significantly worse than the infection for anyone under the age of 65 has been added to the equation.
You know how many times in my career I've had EMS deliver a patient to me with a primary complaint of obesity? Zero.

While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.
Well, folks, since HappyDerp has never seen it, it certainly doesn't happen.  Throw all the statistics out the window; the numbers are irrelevant.

Wait, aren't you the same person upthread who has argued that anecdotes aren't conclusive evidence?  Seems inconsistent...
Go ahead, fool, show us how many patients arrive to emergency departments with a primary complaint of obesity. Show us how many are admitted to hospitals with a primary diagnosis of obesity. Show us how many did with obesity listed as the principle cause of death.

Pat

Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 05:37:20 PM
Quote from: Pat on December 19, 2021, 11:59:11 AM
Quote from: Kiero on December 19, 2021, 11:37:38 AM
Quote from: dkabq on December 19, 2021, 09:29:37 AM
My guess is that a significant fraction of "deaths with covid" would have been "deaths from xxxx", where xxxx are the chronic comorbidities in the elderly. And that you would see the same trend, but to a lesser extent, in the not-elderly.

Around 95% of deaths "with" covid were actually caused by underlying comorbidities.
It's not either/or. If you're infected by a disease that aggravates an underlying heart condition, resulting in death, is the disease the cause or the underlying heart condition? The correct answer is both, because without the heart condition the disease might have just been the sniffles; and without the disease, they might have lived for a number of years before something else aggravated the heart condition.
.

I basically agree. Where we may disagree is over the weight to put on each "straw" so to speak. If I am old and have a heart condition that is going to kill me within the next year or two, covid tipping the scales isn't nearly as tragic as if I am young and have a heart condition that is going to kill me when I am 80 and covid tips the scales.

I posit that the former case trades "deaths from xxxx" for "deaths with covid and xxxx" (with covid now getting the credit for the death), with those deaths now occurring sooner (on the order of months to a year or two) than they would otherwise. I imagine that the reduction in flu deaths is due to those people that would have died of flu (with comorbidities) instead died of covid (with comorbidities).

Kiero's point is indicative of causes of deaths changing, but the overall number of deaths staying relatively the same.

Don't forget, in the US 16% of people 85+ die every year.
They still died of covid. That's still wrong. But otherwise, I largely agree. I've pointed out in endless posts that expected years of life lost is a more useful metric than a flat number of deaths, which is just a figure used to drum up terror by the fear merchants who pretend to be journalists. Covid is unusual in that the morbidity profile almost perfectly matches the natural morbidity profile (i.e. your chance of dying from covid is proportional to your chance of dying from all other causes). It's very dangerous to those who would be expected to die soon anyway, and of very little risk to everyone else. In many states, the average age of someone dying of covid was higher than the natural lifespan. That's very different from many other diseases, for instance the 1918 flu, which killed the young at very high rates.

Shasarak

Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 07:14:35 PM
While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

Does this count as dying with obesity?


https://nypost.com/2021/05/19/russian-woman-reportedly-suffocated-husband-to-death-with-her-butt/



Who da Drow?  U da drow! - hedgehobbit

There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

HappyDaze

Quote from: Shasarak on December 19, 2021, 10:40:34 PM
Quote from: HappyDaze on December 19, 2021, 07:14:35 PM
While I've seen many patients die "with" obesity, I've never seen one yet that died "from" obesity. I can't truthfully say that about Covid.

Does this count as dying with obesity?


https://nypost.com/2021/05/19/russian-woman-reportedly-suffocated-husband-to-death-with-her-butt/

Your article says outright that the cause of death was asphyxiation. He didn't die from his own obesity.