Covid, the "lockdowns" etc.

[HappyDaze]

https://www.wsmv.com/news/new-vanderbilt-health-data-shows-difference-in-hospitalizations-between-vaccinated-unvaccinated/article_8d6a8464-0fe0-11ec-aad5-5302ae60b1dd.html

Oops.

Take your mask mandate and shove it up your ass.

What is it you think that link is showing? It appears to be showing the vaccine works really well.

Maybe that's why he put "Oops" on the next line?

[Pat]

Bernie Sanders agrees with you that class issues subsume racial and other minority and identity issues.

He's right on that specific issue, but wrong about nearly everything else. I picked up a copy of his Guide to Political Revolution at a dollar store, and I've been reading it. It has a clever design, with that pseudo-indie or artsy look to make it feel a bit like a revolutionary pamphlet. And it's remarkable how much of the content has been imitated, online. Nearly everything in the book has become part of the default internet talking points of the left.

[Ghostmaker]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

[HappyDaze]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Keep doubling down on your mistake. Your failure amuses me little one.

[Ghostmaker]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Keep doubling down on your mistake. Your failure amuses me little one.

I defer to your greater experience with being a failure.

[Mistwell]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days. So here we are, with the vaccinated having to wear masks because the unvaccinated won't unless everyone has to.

[Ratman_tf]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days.

These days? People have always been this way. That's why masks were doomed to failure. Even at "best" participation, people wore their masks poorly, touched their faces, etc, etc. Now, it's all security theater with people wearing masks off their nose, around their neck, etc, etc. People can't stay vigilant forever. Eventually they fatigue and get sloppy.

The only place this can work is in a hospital where it's mandatory for the job, consistently enforced by the workplace, and the staff generally understand the whys and hows of it.

[HappyDaze]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days.

These days? People have always been this way. That's why masks were doomed to failure. Even at "best" participation, people wore their masks poorly, touched their faces, etc, etc. Now, it's all security theater with people wearing masks off their nose, around their neck, etc, etc. People can't stay vigilant forever. Eventually they fatigue and get sloppy.

The only place this can work is in a hospital where it's mandatory for the job, consistently enforced by the workplace, and the staff generally understand the whys and hows of it.

Some places other than hospitals are making it mandatory, consistently enforcing it, and making sure the staff generally understand the why's and how's of it. Despite this, some still choose to show their asses (i.e., noses/mouths) is misplaced defiance.

[dkabq]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days. So here we are, with the vaccinated having to wear masks because the unvaccinated won't unless everyone has to.

More like:

1a) If you are older and/or have comorbidities, being vaccinated provides a high relative degree of protection vs. the immune system response from original covid, and to a lesser extent from variants.
1b) As you reduce age and comorbidities, the relative degree of protection provided by the vaccine vs. immune system response is less.
1c) Nobody knows what, if any, long term negative effects there are from the vaccine. More of a concern for younger rather than older.
1d) Nobody knows what, if any, are the long-term effects of having covid. Also more of a concern for younger rather than older.

2a) Being unvaccinated is bad if you are older and/or have comorbidities.
2b) The degree of unvaccinated "bad" reduces with age and comorbidities. In the limit, this is seen in children, where deaths from flu are greater than deaths from covid.

3a) Wearing a mask provides little reduction in virus release or uptake, unless you are wearing a properly-fitted, properly-worn N-95 mask. Don't forget that pre-covid CDC mask guidance for the general public for the flu was to not wear a mask.
3b) As you increase people packing density, reduce ventilation rate, reduce distancing, and add in talking, coughing, and sneezing, non N-95 masks increase somewhat in effectiveness, although I wonder how many people continue to wear a mask full of snot/spit, and how may carry extra masks for such instances. Note that if you have a chronic cough or sneeze, staying home provides provides better protection than a mask.
3c) Masking guidance in many places is crap (technical term). For example, in the Land of Enchantment, you have to wear a mask indoors, unless you are sitting at table in a restaurant. Apparently restaurant tables magically protect you from covid. Conversely, in my office (six 8'x8' cubicles with 5' high walls and 10'+ high ceilings, average #people actually in the office ~4) I have to wear a mask, unless I am eating or drinking. Apparently eating or drinking magically protects me from my office-mates and and my office-mates from me with respect to covid.
3d) When the issued guidance is so blatantly illogical, it leads me to believe those handing it down are stupid and/or have an unspoken/ulterior motives.

4) I'd agree.

5) This contradicts the current Fauci gospel that, in terms of the delta variant, vaccinated people are to wear masks as they have the same nasal viral load as unvaccinated people.

6) My prediction is that, like the flu, covid is going to be with us forever. Hence it will have periodic cycles (currently looking like summer and winter). Its degree of spread will increase, but in general its negative impacts (e.g., hospitalizations, deaths) will decrease (and on a running yearly average) regress towards a mean, although, like the flu, there will be variation over time (i.e., this year so far, hospitalizations are up but deaths are down compared to last year).

Regards.

[Mistwell]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days.

These days? People have always been this way. That's why masks were doomed to failure. Even at "best" participation, people wore their masks poorly, touched their faces, etc, etc. Now, it's all security theater with people wearing masks off their nose, around their neck, etc, etc. People can't stay vigilant forever. Eventually they fatigue and get sloppy.

The only place this can work is in a hospital where it's mandatory for the job, consistently enforced by the workplace, and the staff generally understand the whys and hows of it.

People are back to wearing masks pretty good across the board in indoor settings here in LA. When I was in Hawaii recently I found they also were wearing the masks pretty good across the board in indoor settings. I think we notice the ones wearing them poorly because they're the exception to the rule and so stand out.

[Mistwell]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days. So here we are, with the vaccinated having to wear masks because the unvaccinated won't unless everyone has to.

More like:

1a) If you are older and/or have comorbidities, being vaccinated provides a high relative degree of protection vs. the immune system response from original covid, and to a lesser extent from variants.
1b) As you reduce age and comorbidities, the relative degree of protection provided by the vaccine vs. immune system response is less.
1c) Nobody knows what, if any, long term negative effects there are from the vaccine. More of a concern for younger rather than older.
1d) Nobody knows what, if any, are the long-term effects of having covid. Also more of a concern for younger rather than older.

2a) Being unvaccinated is bad if you are older and/or have comorbidities.
2b) The degree of unvaccinated "bad" reduces with age and comorbidities. In the limit, this is seen in children, where deaths from flu are greater than deaths from covid.

Look man I am just using the link HE posted. You want to play moving target, that's fine. But I was responding to what he posted, which pretty clearly showed the vaccines are working pretty well.

3a) Wearing a mask provides little reduction in virus release or uptake, unless you are wearing a properly-fitted, properly-worn N-95 mask. Don't forget that pre-covid CDC mask guidance for the general public for the flu was to not wear a mask.

This was debunked long ago, and I know you're aware of the debunking. You are aware it's not about a single microscopic particle of covid infecting you but is instead highly dependent on the quantity of large particle dosage you receive and even a poorly fitted masks frequently will reduce the amount of large particles you can spread in a wide radius. The radius you spread those particles reduces with a mask (even one not tightly fitted) and the quantity of particles you spread reduces (even one not tightly fitted). The original mask guidelines were based on thinking you had to stop ever microscopic particle and were changed as we learned more about how this virus spreads.

3b) As you increase people packing density, reduce ventilation rate, reduce distancing, and add in talking, coughing, and sneezing, non N-95 masks increase somewhat in effectiveness, although I wonder how many people continue to wear a mask full of snot/spit, and how may carry extra masks for such instances. Note that if you have a chronic cough or sneeze, staying home provides provides better protection than a mask.

The primary purpose of the mask is to protect others from you when you are not aware you're contagious, not to protect you from others. Which I know you also knew.

3c) Masking guidance in many places is crap (technical term). For example, in the Land of Enchantment, you have to wear a mask indoors, unless you are sitting at table in a restaurant. Apparently restaurant tables magically protect you from covid. Conversely, in my office (six 8'x8' cubicles with 5' high walls and 10'+ high ceilings, average #people actually in the office ~4) I have to wear a mask, unless I am eating or drinking. Apparently eating or drinking magically protects me from my office-mates and and my office-mates from me with respect to covid.
3d) When the issued guidance is so blatantly illogical, it leads me to believe those handing it down are stupid and/or have an unspoken/ulterior motives.

This is again back to the quantity issue. Obviously you cannot wear a mask while eating and drinking. But wearing a mask when you can reduces the quantity of particles you spread.

5) This contradicts the current Fauci gospel that, in terms of the delta variant, vaccinated people are to wear masks as they have the same nasal viral load as unvaccinated people.

Right except they're contagious apparently for a much shorter period of time. The load peaks at the same quantity, but it reduces much more rapidly. Also, you show less symptoms on average if you're vaccinated, and some of those symptoms help spread the virus in a wider radius like sneezing and coughing.

6) My prediction is that, like the flu, covid is going to be with us forever. Hence it will have periodic cycles (currently looking like summer and winter). Its degree of spread will increase, but in general its negative impacts (e.g., hospitalizations, deaths) will decrease (and on a running yearly average) regress towards a mean, although, like the flu, there will be variation over time (i.e., this year so far, hospitalizations are up but deaths are down compared to last year).

Regards.

Sounds right to me.

[DocJones]

The Wuhan flu is not going away.  It's best to resign yourself that .2% of y'all will die each year from it.
Instead of wearing masks and social distancing like cowardly pussies, I recommend you get your ass
outside, exercise and lose some weight, take your vitamins D and Zinc, and kiss a lot of strange girls.

[SHARK]

The Wuhan flu is not going away.  It's best to resign yourself that .2% of y'all will die each year from it.
Instead of wearing masks and social distancing like cowardly pussies, I recommend you get your ass
outside, exercise and lose some weight, take your vitamins D and Zinc, and kiss a lot of strange girls.

Greetings!

I agree with you, DocJones. The whole China virus hysteria and totalitarianism has really inspired me to increasingly embrace a kind of "Fuck It" attitude. The fucking virus is here forever. There is no cure, and never will be. Might as well get on with living life to the fullest. This goddamn virus does not warrant a fucking hysterical power-grab by jackasses throughout society. It is high past time more people everywhere in society to put their foot down and demand enough is enough. Shut up and fucking live life, and let everyone else live life, too. If you get it and die, oh well. At any given day, there's likely a dozen ways anyone of us could die. The China virus is just another method to add to the stack.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

[Pat]

The whole China virus hysteria and totalitarianism has really inspired me to increasingly embrace a kind of "Fuck It" attitude. The fucking virus is here forever. There is no cure, and never will be. Might as well get on with living life to the fullest. This goddamn virus does not warrant a fucking hysterical power-grab by jackasses throughout society. It is high past time more people everywhere in society to put their foot down and demand enough is enough. Shut up and fucking live life, and let everyone else live life, too. If you get it and die, oh well. At any given day, there's likely a dozen ways anyone of us could die. The China virus is just another method to add to the stack.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

That's what I've been arguing for a while. Once we had community spread in the US -- which we knew by March of last year, though it's now clear it was already happening late 2019 -- there was no way to contain it. It's become part of the background of diseases, like the various viruses that cause the flu.

That said, we don't have to take every risk in the book. There are still some legitimate questions about the long term effects of the vaccines, but they do seem to ameliorate the worst effects, so there's a strong argument in favor of vaccinating the most vulnerable, like the elderly and frontline healthcare workers. But it should be 100% uncoerced. We need to stop taking cues from Mengele and the US Public Health Service.

And if there was a major new outbreak, you could make an argument in favor of shutting down large indoor events, because we know that the effects of superspreaders are disproportionate. But again, it should be voluntary. Get a cute little color code like the Department of Homeland Security uses to warn of terrorist events or something.

[dkabq]

Poor Happydaze. He's not very bright.

My point was that a mask mandate is stupid if the vaccine works.

But then, he is a potato.

Here's how it works:

1) Vaccine is pretty good;
2) Being unvaccinated is pretty bad;
3) Masks help those unvaccinated;
4) The unvaccinated tend to not wear a mask if the vaccinated go around unmasked;
5) To get the unvaccinated to wear a mask we need the vaccinated to wear one too, even though it's not directly helping them much.

We've kinda proven those points out over time. We did the whole "You can go unmasked if you're vaccinated as long as the unvaccinated wear masks" based on the honors system and it was a total train wreck with everyone going maskless because that's how our society works these days. So here we are, with the vaccinated having to wear masks because the unvaccinated won't unless everyone has to.

More like:

1a) If you are older and/or have comorbidities, being vaccinated provides a high relative degree of protection vs. the immune system response from original covid, and to a lesser extent from variants.
1b) As you reduce age and comorbidities, the relative degree of protection provided by the vaccine vs. immune system response is less.
1c) Nobody knows what, if any, long term negative effects there are from the vaccine. More of a concern for younger rather than older.
1d) Nobody knows what, if any, are the long-term effects of having covid. Also more of a concern for younger rather than older.

2a) Being unvaccinated is bad if you are older and/or have comorbidities.
2b) The degree of unvaccinated "bad" reduces with age and comorbidities. In the limit, this is seen in children, where deaths from flu are greater than deaths from covid.

Look man I am just using the link HE posted. You want to play moving target, that's fine. But I was responding to what he posted, which pretty clearly showed the vaccines are working pretty well.

3a) Wearing a mask provides little reduction in virus release or uptake, unless you are wearing a properly-fitted, properly-worn N-95 mask. Don't forget that pre-covid CDC mask guidance for the general public for the flu was to not wear a mask.

This was debunked long ago, and I know you're aware of the debunking. You are aware it's not about a single microscopic particle of covid infecting you but is instead highly dependent on the quantity of large particle dosage you receive and even a poorly fitted masks frequently will reduce the amount of large particles you can spread in a wide radius. The radius you spread those particles reduces with a mask (even one not tightly fitted) and the quantity of particles you spread reduces (even one not tightly fitted). The original mask guidelines were based on thinking you had to stop ever microscopic particle and were changed as we learned more about how this virus spreads.

3b) As you increase people packing density, reduce ventilation rate, reduce distancing, and add in talking, coughing, and sneezing, non N-95 masks increase somewhat in effectiveness, although I wonder how many people continue to wear a mask full of snot/spit, and how may carry extra masks for such instances. Note that if you have a chronic cough or sneeze, staying home provides provides better protection than a mask.

The primary purpose of the mask is to protect others from you when you are not aware you're contagious, not to protect you from others. Which I know you also knew.

3c) Masking guidance in many places is crap (technical term). For example, in the Land of Enchantment, you have to wear a mask indoors, unless you are sitting at table in a restaurant. Apparently restaurant tables magically protect you from covid. Conversely, in my office (six 8'x8' cubicles with 5' high walls and 10'+ high ceilings, average #people actually in the office ~4) I have to wear a mask, unless I am eating or drinking. Apparently eating or drinking magically protects me from my office-mates and and my office-mates from me with respect to covid.
3d) When the issued guidance is so blatantly illogical, it leads me to believe those handing it down are stupid and/or have an unspoken/ulterior motives.

This is again back to the quantity issue. Obviously you cannot wear a mask while eating and drinking. But wearing a mask when you can reduces the quantity of particles you spread.

5) This contradicts the current Fauci gospel that, in terms of the delta variant, vaccinated people are to wear masks as they have the same nasal viral load as unvaccinated people.

Right except they're contagious apparently for a much shorter period of time. The load peaks at the same quantity, but it reduces much more rapidly. Also, you show less symptoms on average if you're vaccinated, and some of those symptoms help spread the virus in a wider radius like sneezing and coughing.

6) My prediction is that, like the flu, covid is going to be with us forever. Hence it will have periodic cycles (currently looking like summer and winter). Its degree of spread will increase, but in general its negative impacts (e.g., hospitalizations, deaths) will decrease (and on a running yearly average) regress towards a mean, although, like the flu, there will be variation over time (i.e., this year so far, hospitalizations are up but deaths are down compared to last year).

Regards.

Sounds right to me.

Too lazy to put responses in the nested quotes...

I don't disagree that vaccines have value/"are working pretty well", but that is not a one-size-fits all proposition. The vax, in general, has more value for older and/or sicker than for younger and/or healthier. And there are unquantified knock-on effects for getting covid and the vaccine. I am guessing that we will have to agree to disagree on this.

I agree, if you are in tight confines, with poor ventilation, with many people who are chronically coughing/sneezing, then even a crap mask likely has some effectiveness. However, I would like to see the study showing the effectiveness of a non N-95 mask vs sneezing or coughing compared to using a tissue or your hand. It would also be interesting to see studies that estimate the minimum mask effectiveness (under the variety of applicable conditions) necessary to have a meaningful effect on covid transmission.

Moreover, as you increase compartment volume, ventilation, and social distancing the average viral concentration decreased, and decreasing the number of people and their source generation (i.e., they are not coughing, sneezing, or talking) reduces the viral source term and hence the average viral concentration (which together with exposure time, determines if you catch/don't catch covid).  In addition, the (relatively) large aerosols settle out (via gravitational settling) relatively quickly (~10 minutes is the value I remember seeing). On the other hand, the (relatively) small aerosols will remain suspended on the order of hours. It is this part of the viral source term that will drive the long-term steady-state viral concentration.

And I don't "know" that the primary purpose of a mask is to protect others from me, if I am unaware that I am contagious. I have heard that proffered, but see it as a technically flawed argument.

I would be in agreement with you if the restaurant guidance required you to wear a mask except when putting food or drink in your mouth. But the restaurant guidance only requires you to wear a mask when not sitting at the table. I put on my mask as I am about to enter and wear it for the 10' to 30' walk to my table. Once I am at my table, I do not have to wear my mask. I only have to wear it when I leave the table. Hence, I have on multiple occasions been sitting in a fully packed restaurant where everyone at a table is not wearing a mask. And hence the guidance is crap. And hence the people making the edicts are stupid and/or have unspoken/ulterior motives.

As for the Fauci gospel, again, I do not see a sound technical basis for non N-95 masks being effective. As for sneezing and coughing, if you are sick, go home, or cover your mouth & nose with your hand or a tissue.

Looking back at the back-and-forth, it also appears that we are going to have to agree to disagree on mask effectiveness.

Regards.