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Bitcoin/crypto currency anyone here into it/understand it?

Started by oggsmash, February 01, 2018, 03:41:42 PM

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oggsmash

February 01, 2018, 03:41:42 PM
I have done a bit of minor dabbling, and accidentally made a good bit of money (hit a 300 percent gain in a short turn around) and now just watch it.  I was curious if anyone here is following, has deep knowledge, invests alot, etc.  

   I read lots about it and can believe everything from it is a ponzi scheme to the next wave of peer to peer transactions.  I am a fan of decentralization, but not so convinced that the powers that be are going allow it to keep rolling.

ArrozConLeche

#1
February 02, 2018, 09:37:15 AM Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 10:19:03 AM by ArrozConLeche
I know a few acquaintances who have taken gambles in it, but they are pretty clear that it's a gamble. I've yet to meet a true believer in person, but they seem to be quite common online.

I mean true believers like this one:

Michael Gray

#2
February 02, 2018, 10:16:12 AM
It has its uses when it's not being speculated to hell and back ( I believe some banks are using Ripple for interbank transfers because the SWIFT network is...real, real bad); but it's being speculated to hell and back. Once the bubble bursts the survivors might find some use.

This graph is a pretty good summation of bubbles in general and I would estimate we're probably somewhere between "New Paradigm" and "Bull Trap" on the graph.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2206[/ATTACH]

Blockchain technology is also being used in places like real estate to 'tokenize' properties so they can be traded more easily. Investopedia has a summary here.
Currently Running - Deadlands: Reloaded

KingCheops

#4
February 02, 2018, 12:35:12 PM
It all depends on coin versus token and what that particular currency is trying to accomplish.  I'm a huge believer in Ethereum because of the smart contract technology.  See Title Insurance for an example of bullshit that shouldn't exist that smart contracts can do away with.

In general Bitcoin and others looking for transactional value are probably a fool's errand.  Taking 2.5 minutes at the fastest to complete a transaction is not good in practice.  Our modern financial system takes far longer than that for any non-cash transactions but for the point of sale contact it is pretty much instant now (god I love Tap technology).  Visa takes a day to settle transactions even after the merchant submits his record but the consumer gets their good/service much sooner.  Bitcoin's 10 minute settlement time is much faster than 1 day but the merchant likely won't let you leave with the goods or consume the service until the block is confirmed.

Similarly SWIFT, which gets hacked all the fucking time and is buggy as hell, takes upwards of 3 business days to settle transactions and has zero visibility for normal plebes.  Stock trading is even more dodgy and record keeping is crap so there are a crazy number of errors committed on something as simple as "does this person have 1 stock of this company to sell to that other person?"  The thing is that the plutocrats in charge of the current system make lots of money off owning these and gaming the system/outright theft (see the short selling and HFT controversies to see this in action) that they have a vested interest to keep it.

I think in the long run that blockchain and cryptocurrencies will be the future.  I'm not sure if any of the current ones will be the final version (rumor has it that the IMF is trying to create its own version to replace SDR) but just like the Dot.Com bubble it'll pop and then we settle into business as usual with the stuff that comes out the other end.

Doom

#5
February 02, 2018, 03:31:34 PM
"Understand" is a strong word to use in reference to these things, but the real issue is why money is flowing in. Most all other investments are so scary-high or obviously bad (like negative interest rate bonds) is there aren't many other places to put your cash...if you've got cash and are an investor.

But "wildly speculative" is certainly as good a 2 word description as you're going to get. The idea that a "bitcoin" could be worth 10x as much as an ounce of real gold, or a year's pay for poor person is just nuts on the face of it.
(taken during hurricane winds)

A nice education blog.

oggsmash

#6
February 02, 2018, 03:36:53 PM
Oh, I see for sure it is the wild wild west.  I am just starting to get more interested in active investing, and it seems volatile is the word to make some money....but it sure felt like a slot machine to me.  I guess the way I look at it is I will put a few bucks in I would otherwise have frittered away and have to lose.  I am curious where it will be in 5 years.

Ras Algethi

#7
February 02, 2018, 05:22:04 PM
If a bunch of suckers can lose tons of money on tulips I don't see why they couldn't on bitcoin (or similar ventures).

KingCheops

#8
February 02, 2018, 06:17:20 PM
Quote from: Ras Algethi;1023332If a bunch of suckers can lose tons of money on tulips I don't see why they couldn't on bitcoin (or similar ventures).

Pretty big difference between the two.  There is actually a technological advance behind cryptos that is actually useful.  Same thing as the Dot.Com bubble.  Sure some people will lose money but there will be some major winners after the bloodbath.  Treat it the same way as Google back in the early 00's -- who is getting contracts and money from big companies/governments?

Spinachcat

#9
February 02, 2018, 10:38:26 PM
Me likey crypto!

If you find the field interesting, I recommend researching the concepts and uses of blockchain technology and how a "token" is separate from a "coin". There is fascinating (and scary) potentials with blockchain.  

Wanna invest? Target ICOs and specialist coins. However, please replace the word "invest" with "bet" and act accordingly.

Ras Algethi

#10
February 03, 2018, 04:24:28 AM
Quote from: KingCheops;1023334Pretty big difference between the two.  There is actually a technological advance behind cryptos that is actually useful.  Same thing as the Dot.Com bubble.  Sure some people will lose money but there will be some major winners after the bloodbath.  Treat it the same way as Google back in the early 00's -- who is getting contracts and money from big companies/governments?

Plenty of people made money off Enron stock as well.

KingCheops

#11
February 03, 2018, 12:13:01 PM
Quote from: Ras Algethi;1023398Plenty of people made money off Enron stock as well.

Nice strawman.  There's a good bit of fraud in tokens and ICOs but that's a pretty big brush you're painting with there.

Ras Algethi

#12
February 03, 2018, 09:12:32 PM
Quote from: KingCheops;1023446Nice strawman.  There's a good bit of fraud in tokens and ICOs but that's a pretty big brush you're painting with there.

When the claim is made that "some people will lose money but some major winners" will be had, pointing out that folks made big money on a crap stock (many times before) is hardly a strawman. It directly addresses the point that as long as some are "major winners" its a good investment.

Spinachcat

#13
February 03, 2018, 09:23:53 PM
Enron is a fine comparison, in that Enron was manipulating energy prices and there are "whales" (aka, mega-investors) who manipulate the crypto market up and down.

Also, what is a "good' investment? A house? An empty lot? A blue chip company? Outside of real estate and the biggest, oldest companies, how many investments stay "good" over a long term? Especially in a fast moving technological age.

Sears is dead. That would have been incomprehensible to many of our grandparents. That's like believing Amazon and Walmart could vanish!

kaylinsshaws

#14
March 15, 2023, 08:14:21 PM
Hi! I accidentally discovered your post while I was looking for some info regarding beginners' luck in crypto. I'm new in the crypto world, but I made some money on crypto by trading. Now I wanna take it to the next level.
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