I'm really curious what 5e will be like. With so much invested in the infrastructure of the electronic stuff for 4e, I doubt they would scrap it. Plus they went to a lot of trouble to change shit around enough or the sole purpose of making it un-clone-able using the OGL. So, not able to go backwards due to fear of people OGL'ing new products for it, and not willing to scrap the electronic infrastructure, I am betting it will expand upon 4e's base, and be more electronic. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't even print books, just power cards.
Roast beef.
I have no idea what a WOTC 5e will look like, but given their trend of moving further away from what I enjoy in D&D with every new version, I sadly suspect it will be something I would not play at all.
It will be a highly simulationist point buy system.
They'll finally go classless, levelless and GMless, thus severing the last few connections to traditional D&D.
It'll be like 4E with improvements, just as 4e was 3.5 with improvements. These improvements will infuriate some, and delight others, and the game will only be picked up by people who actually play it.
Such a mundane question, really.
Quote from: Warthur;374161They'll finally go classless, levelless and GMless, thus severing the last few connections to traditional D&D.
...and will use a Jenga tower for task resolution.
Jello.
It'll probably be 4ed with some minor changes and rebalancings just like what 3.5ed was for 3.0ed or 2ed was for 1ed. I don't think there'll be any big changes to the ruleset mostly a cleaning up of the math and general tweaking. Maybe one big change would be setting things up to make it so that you can't use your dailies unless some condition is satisfied so you get fights that go like:
A. PCs are outgunned and start getting beat up.
B. PCs turn the tables with a daily and win.
That'd give the playes a feeling that they won against the odds even though they didn't which is good for the old endorphins...
If they do decide to change things in anything more than a tweaking way it'd probably be a "go back to basics" move and be something like Castles and Crusades. I don't see much middle ground. There's no way that 5ed will try to do something new in a big way.
I'd go with the idea espoused in KM's dungeon thread on ENWorld.
Quote from: DeadUematsu;374171I'd go with the idea espoused in KM's dungeon thread on ENWorld.
link?
I'm guessing that mechanically it will be mainly a tweaked 4e but physically it will be a lot like WFRP 3 with a big expensive box and a lot of special components that make pirating impractical.
about $29.95 a month
iPad app.
Quote from: Phantom Black;374166...and will use a Jenga tower for task resolution.
They're going to blatantly rip off Dread? Not cool!
I'm going w/ the electronic route. Imagine if they took D&D and infused it with the addictive elements of games like, say, Farmville! Did I blow your mind? Huh? Huh?
Not sure here. Marketing wise, there's some need to rebuild the system so they can sell all the rulebooks again (so its not back compatible), but they don't have to make it totally different (e.g. to drive out 3rd party publishers using the old Open Game Licence).
Also, if the new Gamma World is any indication, it'll be a CCG.
Quote from: steelmax73;374174about $29.95 a month
Not at this price, but within this idea:
I don't really believe that there ever will be a 5th edition. As WoTC distribution moves towards strictly digital I can see the system getting "patched" (much in the way that MMOs regularly receive tweaks). With your subscription the ruleset on yer Ipad/Kindle/whatever will be automatically updated with updated content.
First place I would look for, is what new things are being done in the latest video games. Of these new things, which ones can be easily implementable in a tabletop pen-and-paper rpg format.
Quote from: Angry_Douchebag;374186Not at this price, but within this idea:
I don't really believe that there ever will be a 5th edition. As WoTC distribution moves towards strictly digital I can see the system getting "patched" (much in the way that MMOs regularly receive tweaks). With your subscription the ruleset on yer Ipad/Kindle/whatever will be automatically updated with updated content.
With longer and longer errata lists really irritating buyers of hardcover splatbooks, perhaps all digital with automatic updates is a better way of doing things.
Quote from: ggroy;374188With longer and longer errata lists really irritating buyers of hardcover splatbooks, perhaps all digital with automatic updates is a better way of doing things.
I think it can be a very effective strategy for WoTC; I like having a physical book.
Quote from: ggroy;374188With longer and longer errata lists really irritating buyers of hardcover splatbooks, perhaps all digital with automatic updates is a better way of doing things.
Well that does get them around a problem I've imagined them handling really badly: transitioning DDI from 4e to 5e. Because I could easily imagine them unceremoniously kicking 4e to the curb and alienating a lot more people that way than with any rules changes.
I also suspect this
QuoteI'm guessing that mechanically it will be mainly a tweaked 4e but physically it will be a lot like WFRP 3 with a big expensive box and a lot of special components that make pirating impractical.
is a likely scenario.
Quote from: Joethelawyer;374155I'm really curious what 5e will be like.
Like this.
(http://pcmedia.gamespy.com/pc/image/article/620/620165/magic-the-gathering-online-20-20050527040222033-000.jpg) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Online)
Quote from: Benoist;374175iPad app.
Tiny Adventures from Facebook, only slightly less tiny.
Quote from: The Shaman;374206Like this.
(http://pcmedia.gamespy.com/pc/image/article/620/620165/magic-the-gathering-online-20-20050527040222033-000.jpg) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Online)
Actually that was 3e. A lot more templates and broken combos.
5e will become self-aware and run itself.
Quote from: JollyRB;3742165e will become self-aware and run itself.
Wow. This totally blew my mind.
5e = Skynet
Quote from: GoOrange;374218Wow. This totally blew my mind.
5e = Skynet
Funny...I always that it would be google that sparked the techno/organic war.
Quote from: Shazbot79;374220Funny...I always that it would be google that sparked the techno/organic war.
I dunno. I think the site in question has to be the electronic equivalent of primordial goo in order for that to happen. For this reason, my vote goes to myspace.
I wonder what the overall profitability of 4e has been compared to 3e. I'd guess that book sales are down quite a bit. DDI subscriptions likely are bringing in quite a bit of revenue. How WotC approaches the publishing model will affect the game itself.
I'd wager that 5e will be focusing more on the DDI aspect an less on the printed book model. Or possibly getting away from printed books and going for something more along the lines of packs of power cards.
Keep a close eye on how well D&D Essentials works and sells. This could be a precursor of things to come. If the rules are tweaked at all, it wouldn't surprise me to see Essentials be the 4.5 edition.
I think the next edition will continue the trend of releasing the game piecemeal (like only releasing a few races and classes at a time, with others to come in later PHBs). This will riff off of the Essentials idea and the first 5e books will be limited in races, classes, powers and levels much like the old Basic Set and newer games like Dragon Age. WotC will then crank out addons at a rapid pace to quickly expand the game.
I can envision skills and feats going away and getting replaced, renamed, or transitioned to powers. Bring everything closer together in a more unified mechanical way.
Miniatures will still be the defacto standard, although things may change to bring D&DM in line with another game like Heroscape.
The overall power level of PCs will creep up, specifically with everyone doing slightly more damage to speed up combat a bit.
A working virtual tabletop that is relatively bug free and commonly used, along with widespread adoption of something like the iPad, could also greatly change WotC's marketing strategy and design for a future 5E D&D.
Quote from: JollyRB;3742165e will become self-aware and run itself.
It wouldn't be too surprising if they made 5e to work without a dm.
Watch them eliminate variable weapon/power damage, and replace it with constant fixed damage numbers per weapon/power for 5E D&D.
Then they will stretch 4E's levels 1-30, into something like levels 1 -> 100 (or 1 -> 1000) for 5E D&D.
To eliminate the 15 minute gaming day, why not convert all 4E daily powers into 5E encounter powers and convert all 4E encounter powers into 5E at-wills. (ie. Essentially eliminating daily powers altogether).
Quote from: Joethelawyer;374155I'm really curious what 5e will be like.
One part is easy. Look at what the 4e gamers are complaining about as far as the system goes. For example 3.5e it was generally acknowledged that high level combat was difficult to run.
The second part isn't easy. You need to find out who is in charge of designing 5e look at their past work and try to figure out what their interests are.
For each of the major editions of D&D these two elements combined to produce what we saw. From AD&D 1st to D&D 4e.
For example for AD&D 1st, the complaint was all the house rules needed to show which of the options in OD&D are being used and to just to make some of the existing rules more understandable. This combined with Gary Gygax interest to combine to form the edition we got in AD&D 1st.
For AD&D 2nd, was a combination of the complaints about the combat system in the DMG, some character classes, and others. Combined with the mandates handed down by management producted AD&D 2nd.
And this went on for each of the different editions and will be the case for D&D 5e.
Quote from: GoOrange;374223I wonder what the overall profitability of 4e has been compared to 3e. I'd guess that book sales are down quite a bit. DDI subscriptions likely are bringing in quite a bit of revenue. How WotC approaches the publishing model will affect the game itself.
Interesting concept. If they do push in that direction, I would predict the whole game will be as on-line as possible. Snippets you can download to your PC, laptop, iPhone or iPad, or some other electronic reader. Stuff like general combat rules, maybe, or guidelines for the DM.
All the other rules will be largely self contained and printed out along with the character sheet or monster sheet from the online application. So, even more like M:tG like Shaman suggested. Which is actually a brilliant move on several levels, but it entirely depends on keeping people on the subscription service.
Quote from: StormBringer;374274Interesting concept. If they do push in that direction, I would predict the whole game will be as on-line as possible. Snippets you can download to your PC, laptop, iPhone or iPad, or some other electronic reader. Stuff like general combat rules, maybe, or guidelines for the DM.
All the other rules will be largely self contained and printed out along with the character sheet or monster sheet from the online application. So, even more like M:tG like Shaman suggested. Which is actually a brilliant move on several levels, but it entirely depends on keeping people on the subscription service.
I think that they will probably do some of this; however, I think they will still publish a shit ton of books, because as Charles Dickens taught us- it's okay to sell something to somebody once, but it's waaay better to sell the same thing to the same person three or four times.
Quote from: Aos;374284I think that they will probably do some of this; however, I think they will still publish a shit ton of books, because as Charles Dickens taught us- it's okay to sell something to somebody once, but it's waaay better to sell the same thing to the same person three or four times.
Good point. Of course, an ongoing subscription is like selling them the same thing a dozen times a year. Dickens would have been ecstatic. Not Charles Dikkens, though, the famous Dutch authour.
Quote from: One Horse Town;374157Roast beef.
Oh, that reminds me, local Arby's franchises have their Arby-Q barbeque roast beef sandwiches out again. I need to go get some for dinner.
Quote from: StormBringer;374285Good point. Of course, an ongoing subscription is like selling them the same thing a dozen times a year. Dickens would have been ecstatic. Not Charles Dikkens, though, the famous Dutch authour.
True, but books are a tangible investment- and a fetish item for gamers. There are many reasons to dislike 4e, but no one can deny a significant thread in the initial negativity towards it came from gamers who were pissed because they had so many 3.X books- and would be unable to get any more.
The desire for more fresh print product is what led to the creation of old school retroclones.
People get invested in a game line. Books are the physical anchor of that investment. Beyond that, if you get pissed off about an online game, all you have to do is cancel your sub and you're all done. Books, however, are still there, and unless you expend the effort to unload them, there is always the chance you'll pick one up one day and forget what it was that hacked you off so bad in the first place. Bang, you're back in. Maybe you renew your online sub the month after that.
And then there are the completists...
Books are the win, really.
Quote from: Aos;374302True, but books are a tangible investment- and a fetish item for gamers. There are many reasons to dislike 4e, but no one can deny a significant thread in the initial negativity towards it came from gamers who were pissed because they had so many 3.X books- and would be unable to get any more.
The desire for more fresh print product is what led to the creation of old school retroclones.
People get invested in a game line. Books are the physical anchor of that investment. Beyond that, if you get pissed off about an online game, all you have to do is cancel your sub and you're all done. Books, however, are still there, and unless you expend the effort to unload them, there is always the chance you'll pick one up one day and forget what it was that hacked you off so bad in the first place. Bang, you're back in. Maybe you renew your online sub the month after that.
And then there are the completists...
Books are the win, really.
Interesting points. How do you think that applies to e-books? Similar investment, but the unloading part is easier?
Quote from: Aos;374302True, but books are a tangible investment- and a fetish item for gamers. There are many reasons to dislike 4e, but no one can deny a significant thread in the initial negativity towards it came from gamers who were pissed because they had so many 3.X books- and would be unable to get any more.
The desire for more fresh print product is what led to the creation of old school retroclones.
People get invested in a game line. Books are the physical anchor of that investment. Beyond that, if you get pissed off about an online game, all you have to do is cancel your sub and you're all done. Books, however, are still there, and unless you expend the effort to unload them, there is always the chance you'll pick one up one day and forget what it was that hacked you off so bad in the first place. Bang, you're back in. Maybe you renew your online sub the month after that.
And then there are the completists...
Books are the win, really.
Subscription model, and premium Print-On-Demand services on the side, then?
Quote from: StormBringer;374308Interesting points. How do you think that applies to e-books? Similar investment, but the unloading part is easier?
It remains to be seen, I think. I'll throw one confounding and completely unrelated fact out there. Money buys food. Humans are great about sharing food. Humans are less great about sharing money. Is it the increased utility of money, the fact that you can do more than just buy food with it that makes people reluctant to share? Is it the abstract nature of money? Who fucking knows?
E-books are closer to being real books than money is to being food. Maybe?
How will we feel about them when they are ubiquitous? Fucked if I know.
Quote from: Benoist;374310Subscription model, and premium Print-On-Demand servives on the side, then?
Who knows where its all going? Not me, I'm a fucking idiot. It will be fun to see.
"Servives". I fucking hate typos.
Quote from: Benoist;374310Subscription model, and premium Print-On-Demand services on the side, then?
*Shudders* Never thought tabletops games will end up that way. More profitable for the company, yes, but dangerous. It is practically going against MMOs face to face.
Also marketing is an issue. Book-less D&D won't have a strong presence in gameshops and other rpgs will take over easily.
I suspect even if WotC decides to go the print-on-demand direction for supplementary D&D books, they will most likely still have the core books being mass published just to be in gaming stores and bookstores.
For example if 4E D&D had went the print-on-demand model of marketing, I suspect the main core books would still have been mass published just to be in FLGS + bookstores. Core books like the PHB1/MM1/DMG1, along with at least the PHB2.
Quote from: Aos;374311It remains to be seen, I think. I'll throw one confounding and completely unrelated fact out there. Money buys food. Humans are great about sharing food. Humans are less great about sharing money. Is it the increased utility of money, the fact that you can do more than just buy food with it that makes people reluctant to share? Is it the abstract nature of money? Who fucking knows?
E-books are closer to being real books than money is to being food. Maybe?
How will we feel about them when they are ubiquitous? Fucked if I know.
Quote from: ggroy;374347I suspect even if WotC decides to go the print-on-demand direction for supplementary D&D books, they will most likely still have the core books being mass published just to be in gaming stores and bookstores.
For example if 4E D&D had went the print-on-demand model of marketing, I suspect the main core books would still have been mass published just to be in FLGS + bookstores. Core books like the PHB1/MM1/DMG1, along with at least the PHB2.
I'm guessing it is the increased utility of money.
How about a digest sized book with the core rules? Maybe in the 48-64 page range? A good chunk of rules, with plenty of hooks for the online presence.
I haven't been in a well-stocked honest-to-god FLGS in a long time, but I was today. I was pretty shocked at the amount of "accessories" available for 4e: Power cards, what's left of the minis, their own tiles now? While I agree we might see more emphasis on electronic or print-on-demand, I would think they'll keep the bits-n-pieces thing going.
Someone up-thread mentioned making a boxed set like WFRG. That sounds possible. Or Descent, which also has many bits.
Quote from: StormBringer;374349I'm guessing it is the increased utility of money.
How about a digest sized book with the core rules? Maybe in the 48-64 page range? A good chunk of rules, with plenty of hooks for the online presence.
A 48-64 page core rule digest could work for a rules light system, such as OD&D or one of the D&D box sets from the 1980's.
For something rules dense like 4E D&D, a 48-64 page digest may not be as useful. I suppose one could list all the level 1 powers, rituals, etc ... for all the classic classes + races, but I suspect that may take up more than 64 pages.
If they were to just mass produce one title as a teaser for DDI online subscriptions, something like a basic D&D "red box" set would probably be a better route.
Quote from: ggroy;374352If they were to just mass produce one title as a teaser for DDI online subscriptions, something like a basic D&D "red box" set would probably be a better route.
That is what I was referring to. Maybe a trial install of DDI or something, links all over the book to the online rules and utilities, and just a few dozen pages of DM guidelines and the things you would do around the table, like skill challenges or tables of powers for use away from the computer (but no power listings) as a way of providing some utility, but largely as a draw to the online service.
Quote from: StormBringer;374354That is what I was referring to. Maybe a trial install of DDI or something, links all over the book to the online rules and utilities, and just a few dozen pages of DM guidelines and the things you would do around the table, like skill challenges or tables of powers for use away from the computer (but no power listings) as a way of providing some utility, but largely as a draw to the online service.
Such a box set in principle should be playable for a few levels, such as what was done back in the 1980's for the basic D&D box sets. For exactly how many levels, is debatable.
At this point in time, I don't know if it's still viable to package a dvd-rom in such a box set. If the dvd-rom program doesn't run out of the box properly and crashes, a person may just return the box set to the store for a refund without looking at D&D again. It may be easier to just print a web site link in the book, for a download of an up to date trial version of the DDI character builder.
Quote from: ggroy;374361Such a box set in principle should be playable for a few levels, such as what was done back in the 1980's for the basic D&D box sets. For exactly how many levels, is debatable.
I would assume the book would, in fact, have little to no character creation rules. That will drive the consumer to the web page.
QuoteAt this point in time, I don't know if it's still viable to package a dvd-rom in such a box set. If the dvd-rom program doesn't run out of the box properly and crashes, a person may just return the box set to the store for a refund without looking at D&D again. It may be easier to just print a web site link in the book, for a download of an up to date trial version of the DDI character builder.
Likely true. The DVD could just be some minor utility programs, goofy mood music on mp3, stuff like that.
The first 4E starter box set had some pregenerated characters.
Perhaps pregens may be the easier route to go for such a box set, instead of publishing all the possible choices of powers for each class.
In the 4E D&D Encounters game every week on Wednesday, the players have the option of using a pregen character printed on a card, or creating their own character with the DDI character builder. (Additional points are given to players who created their own character using DDI).
http://www.wizards.com/dnd/Event.aspx?x=dnd/4new/event/dndencounters
Either way, it would be a way to encourage players to subscribe to DDI.
So basically the way they are doing the Essentials line would be a hint of how things are to come? I can foresee 5e having a rules compendium book in print, handy at the table. Since they are taking class and race rules exception based design, all those can be made online with only the iconic races/classes made into print. Again, basically following Essentials method.
As for rules, I think it would be similar to 4e. They managed to level the playing field between classes using the power based system, so I think it's here to stay. The core rules or skill checks/attack rolls are already elegant, so no need to change it unless for the sake of changing.
The only improvements of 4e for 5e would be skill challenges, rituals, length of combat.
Quote from: areola;374417So basically the way they are doing the Essentials line would be a hint of how things are to come?
Yes and no. 4e has done
incredibly badly. At GAMA, WotC was talking about how their Essentials Line had "room for growth" because 1 in 16 D&D players actually bought any 4th edition stuff. If you check a random convention listing from next month, you'll find More 3rd edition games than 4th edition games (http://www.kublacon.info/kcsearch/kcindex.lasso?page=hits&link_pref=167&event%20category=RPG&sort_pref=&order_pref=&action=search) (remember that anything that says "d20" or "Pathfinder" is still on the 3e ruleset). That's terrible. 4th edition D&D is the
current edition of Dungeons & Dragons anything less than a majority market share is a colossal failure. Having another game out there with more players is totally unacceptable - even, nay
especially if that game is the previous version of the game.
So the Essentials line has a few months to reinvigorate the concepts of 4th edition Dungeons & Dragons. If it fails to sell 2 million copies, James Wyatt gets fired. If it fails to sell five hundred thousand copies, the entire design crew gets fired. Hasbro wants some results, and "almost as much market penetrance as our last edition that we stopped supporting
two and a half years ago still has on inertia alone" does not count.
So 5e starts getting worked on seriously in October, after the first month of sales and reviews are back from D&D Essentials. If the box set appears to be tanking (and I am betting that it will), the new edition will be sent in a "radically new direction" to attempt to woo back the tens of millions of D&D players that WotC claims exist that by their own admission are not purchasing 4e products. If D&D Essentials succeeds in reinvigorating the brand somehow, then whatever bold moves D&D Essentials made to make that happen will be the cornerstone of 5e.
-Frank
I am also wondering about the redbox and how it will fare. Sure the grognards might buy it due to nostalgia but majority of them won't due to it still being 4e rules. And will kids suddenly start buying them? They had a starter set before and it wasn't a huge impact. What makes a new box with extra character creation rules more appealing to a newcomer?
I was talking to a fellow gamer about how D&D is. Boardgames, ccgs, wargaming and MMOs are more popular than D&D. Now 4e combines all aspects of it to sell. It doesn't seem to have a focus on what it wants to do exactly, instead trying to cater to all the other types of players.
As for the conventions hosting more previous editions than 4e, it seems sad, but not surprising. So if 5e continues to be like 4e, the number of players will be shrunk down more and more. Not all 4e players will jump to 5e as well.
One should hope the Essential brand does well for the future of D&D.
Quote from: FrankTrollman;374419If you check a random convention listing from next month, you'll find More 3rd edition games than 4th edition games (http://www.kublacon.info/kcsearch/kcindex.lasso?page=hits&link_pref=167&event%20category=RPG&sort_pref=&order_pref=&action=search) (remember that anything that says "d20" or "Pathfinder" is still on the 3e ruleset).
Frank, please save the cherry-picked statistics and stupid extrapolation for your fan board. And if you must bring them here, get them right.
Search on D&D. You find 33 events. 13 of them are Pathfinder or D&D; 20 of them are 4e. Then search on RPGA; 24 more 4e events. Then search on Pathfinder. 10 events, one of which we already found from searching on D&D. Totals: 44 4e events, and 22 Pathfinder/3e events.
There are also two d20 events, both of which are SF/modern games; that's not chewing into the fantasy RPG mindshare. But if you want to count them, sure, have 24 Pathfinder/3e events. It's still nearly a 2:1 ratio.
Now, that's not nothing. It's clear that Pathfinder has a significant portion of the con mindshare, and I think that's impressive. Of course, because you talk fast and passionately, most people won't notice that you just leaped from "there are more Pathfinder games at one single randomly selected convention" to "there are more Pathfinder players than 4e players." But that's what you did.
You're missing a few steps along the way. This is reality, not House. You don't get to jump to conclusions and be right, and you are not Hugh Laurie.
For that matter, WotC could very well take 4E D&D off the market completely and license the 5E D&D tabletop rpg rights to another company. What rpg company can afford such a license, is hard to say.
If Paizo's CEO is to be taken at her word, most likely Paizo will not have much interest in licensing D&D. Though in principle they could do a complete 180, and put in a bid for such a 5E D&D license. (One never knows what somebody is really thinking, but is not saying). In the event where Paizo does end up winning such a 5E D&D license, most likely they will just replace the Pathfinder logo with a 5E D&D logo on all the stuff they already published for Pathfinder.
If Mongoose places the winning bid for such a 5E D&D license, mostly likely they will destroy D&D even further, judging by their past reputation for shoddy products during the d20 glut era. (ie. Poorly thought out books with crappy editing, and rushed to the market). They'll also just crank up the supplement treadmill even faster raging on steroids, even more than WotC ever did.
No idea what White Wolf or anybody else could or would do, if they were to win such a license to do 5E D&D. Anybody significantly smaller than Paizo, Mongoose, White Wolf, etc ..., would most likely not have the cash to afford such a 5E D&D tabletop rpg license.
As an unknown factor, in principle an outsider with deep pockets could swoop in and win such a 5E D&D license. What they will do is anybody's guess.
Quote from: ggroy;374426For that matter, WotC could very well take 4E D&D off the market completely and license the 5E D&D tabletop rpg rights to another company. What rpg company can afford such a license, is hard to say.
btw -- yeah, like that. I think the assumption that there will be a 5e is flawed; if Hasbro does decide at some point that D&D 4e is not worth publishing, it is unclear to me whether or not a new edition could be positioned in a way that would convince them there was more of a chance of success.
There's a funny scenario where 5e is in fact 3e, from WotC, in new trade dress. But I don't know that WotC would really want to do that, even if the numbers made it look good.
Quote from: Thanlis;374429btw -- yeah, like that. I think the assumption that there will be a 5e is flawed; if Hasbro does decide at some point that D&D 4e is not worth publishing, it is unclear to me whether or not a new edition could be positioned in a way that would convince them there was more of a chance of success.
There's also the scenario where Hasbro takes the tabletop rpg D&D game off the market for several years to more than a decade (ie. shelving it). Such an extreme scenario would imply almost-zero revenue coming in from the tabletop D&D rpg. The only D&D revenue left, would be from non-tabletop rpg sources like publishing D&D based novels and whatever other stuff which still uses the D&D logo and trademark (ie. video games, movies, cartoons, etc ...).
When I first heard that Hasbro would be bankrolling D&D in the future, I had this funny product in my head. I still think it's a pretty neat idea:
Get your product next to action figures. Essentially, you sell D&D a character at a time. The bubble pack includes an action figure in 3.5" scale, the same guy in miniature scale, his stat block and whatever reference cards you need. The toy line would essentially be a battle game where friends pit their figures against each other using the basic D&D rules (obligatory giant monsters come later at huge cost). Instead of including a mini-comic with the toy (as some action figures used to do), you get a little book with his/her background and a solo adventure.
And that would be how they get the roleplaying game in. The adventure needs a DM and you need the more complete rules to play those.
Still sounds like a good idea to me. Maybe we'll see something like it in 5e :)
Quote from: ggroy;374431There's also the scenario where Hasbro takes the tabletop rpg D&D game off the market for several years to more than a decade, and shelves it. Such an extreme scenario would imply almost-zero revenue coming in from the tabletop D&D rpg. The only D&D revenue left, would be from non-tabletop rpg sources like publishing D&D based novels and whatever other stuff which still uses the D&D logo and trademark (ie. video games, movies, cartoons, etc ...).
Exactly.
I don't subscribe to Frank's doom and gloom scenario; I don't think Essentials is the new edition. I do think WotC's worried, and I do think 4e hasn't sold as well as they would have liked. Hasbro doesn't have any experience with the tabletop RPG model of continual new revisions.
4e's designed as an exception based system. This means you can revise the feel of the game pretty extensively without futzing with the core rules, just as they've done with Magic for the last X revisions. The trick is that Magic has a built in mechanism for aging out old content. Without that, it's harder to change the way the game plays. D&D doesn't have anything like that.
You could, in theory, implement something along those lines for RPGA play. But... WotC just let go of the RPGA reins; the rules for RPGA character creation are now in the hands of the volunteer global admins. So there's not going to be any weird change there.
Essentials could (and I emphasize could) be a move in that direction, on the assumption that the people who come to D&D through Essentials will not immediately use the other material. But we won't know till we see the set.
D&D Encounters is not a move in that direction.
With respect to the 4E Essentials line, the question is: who exactly is the target audience?
Offhand, I don't see TSR edition grognards as being a huge audience for it. Many grognards have already written off 3E/3.5E/Pathfinder and 4E a long time ago.
I also don't see hardcore 3E/3.5E/Pathfinder players as the main audience for it either. Some have tried 4E already, and don't think it is their cup of tea.
The 4E Essentials line is probably not likely to change the minds of these two groups.
So who's left?
There's a potential audience of lapsed D&D players who have not played any tabletop rpg games in over 15 or 20+ years. The design of the upcoming 4E "
red box" set copying the older Mentzer basic D&D "red box" set format, is perhaps suggestive that WotC may be attempting to attract such "lapsed" players.
Such lapsed players, would probably be over age 30 today. Lapsed players who were in high school or college when the Mentzer basic D&D "red box" set was first released, would be in their 40's today.
How successful this will be in attracting lapsed players over age 30, is difficult to say at this point.
Quote from: Thanlis;374433Exactly.
I don't subscribe to Frank's doom and gloom scenario;
I don't know what you think my "Gloom and Doom" scenario is. WotC announced that they have 1.5 million players and there are 24 million "lapsed" players - people who bought D&D at some point but did not buy the current edition. I don't know their statistical methodology, and I don't know if I can trust those numbers. But I think it's obvious that
they think they could do better. Because the positive spin
they put on that was that there were a lot of D&D players out there they could attract to their current products if they struck the right marketing note.
What's important for the future of this edition and the direction of the next edition is not the objective facts. We don't even
know the objective facts. What's important is what the people calling the shots think is going on. And it's obvious that they don't think the current direction is going well, because they
canceled the DMG 3. The figures
they are quoting say that they could be doing 16 times better than they currently are (I don't know that this is true, but that
is what they said). They are committing themselves to a major new direction in the coming months. The canceled the DMG 3, they canceled Arcane Power 2, they said they aren't making any more hardcover 4e D&D books, and they relabeled even their dice sets and dungeon tiles as "D&D Essentials" materials.
It seems clear to me that Hasbro is not satisfied with "1.5 million players." They are going to want more than that. I don't know how many more than that would be enough to prevent even bigger direction changes in the coming year. But if they decide that numbers are going
down, you can expect heads to roll. Because it's a corporation, and it likes making money. And they announced that they believe that they have a right to twenty million players or more and that they currently have one point five. That
means that they think the current design team or art staff (or both) is failing them at the bottom line level.
D&D Essentials has to provide positive numbers compared with 4e D&D as-is to keep from getting hit with the drastic changes stick. Because the numbers 4e is currently putting up are not enough to stave off the drastic changes stick.
-Frank
Quote from: ggroy;374435So who's left?
There's a potential audience of lapsed D&D players who have not played any tabletop rpg games in over 15 or 20+ years. The design of the upcoming 4E "red box" set copying the older Mentzer basic D&D "red box" set format, is perhaps suggestive that WotC may be attempting to attract such "lapsed" players.
Such lapsed players, would probably be over age 30 today. Lapsed players who were in high school or college when the Mentzer basic D&D "red box" set was first released, would be in their 40's today.
How successful this will be in attracting lapsed players over age 30, is difficult to say at this point.
Yeah. But also new gamers. From Ampersand:
QuoteWhile the current format of the Dungeons & Dragons Roleplaying Game is great for those of us who have been playing the game for years (or even decades!), we knew that we needed to take a shot at making the products more accessible to the next generation of gamers. For this reason, we're introducing the Essentials line of products later this year.
The cover is a nod to lapsed players. But that's a freebie -- it won't harm the product in the eyes of the core product market. What it might do: stir the nostalgia of people who played 30 years ago. "Hey, I liked that as a kid... I should get it for my children."
Essentials is way more about expanding the audience than anything else.
Quote from: Thanlis;374429There's a funny scenario where 5e is in fact 3e, from WotC, in new trade dress. But I don't know that WotC would really want to do that, even if the numbers made it look good.
The only scenario where I can see WotC seriously doing something like this, is if Pathfinder becomes really big and WotC wants to "get back" some of that crowd by releasing an official "3.75E" masquerading as a 5E D&D.
If WotC is really intent on destroying Pathfinder before it becomes a huge legitimate market threat to D&D, this year 2010 would be the time to establish the footwork in creating a "3.75E" that is going to be masquerading as 5E D&D.
They would also most likely create a DDI character builder for "3.75E".
Quote from: FrankTrollman;374438I don't know what you think my "Gloom and Doom" scenario is. WotC announced that they have 1.5 million players and there are 24 million "lapsed" players - people who bought D&D at some point but did not buy the current edition.
At least some of those lapsed players are still actually playing D&D, just not versions of D&D WOTC sells anymore (because they stupidly took the PDFs of older editions material off the market). They had a nearly overhead-free revenue stream from older material as PDFs and tossed it away for reasons that really make no sense.
Quote from: RandallS;374442At least some of those lapsed players are still actually playing D&D, just not versions of D&D WOTC sells anymore (because they stupidly took the PDFs of older editions material off the market). They had a nearly overhead-free revenue stream from older material as PDFs and tossed it away for reasons that really make no sense.
According to the stakeholder report that Steve Jackson released a month or so ago, pdfs do pretty well for them. From my own direct experience with Catalyst, pdfs really weren't doing it at all until Adam Jury successfully lobbied for a massive price cut. The pdf copies sold
way more at $10 than at $20-30. To the point that the company made more money over all.
But we're still talking small total numbers. Steve Jackson ha a nice model where he pays out a 25% royalty on pdf sales, and the authors get zero dollars up front, and then some pdf authors make out like bandits and others don't, and it's all
almost risk free from Steve Jackson's perspective. And I really respect that model, and I think it should be copied elsewhere. Combining Adam's low price point sales pitch and Steve's royalties-only pay schedule, and I think you have a very valid business model. But remember, we are talking about
hundreds of books. WotC said
in court that they had direct evidence of 1210 illegal downloads of the PHB2 and that there were at least 10 illegal downloads for each legal pdf sale. They could have been lying to a United States Judge, or fudging numbers based on some piracy study in the past. But they certainly
implied that they had in fact sold 121 legit pdf copies of the PHB2. Considering the numbers that pdf-only copies of Shadowrun sourcebooks were putting up at the time, that seems pretty plausible.
So when they are running around with their hair on fire concerned about how many
million customers their products are reaching, shutting down a side gig that is reach a couple
hundred customers seems pretty reasonable. I mean, I believe firmly that the pdf market is a valid business undertaking, and that it will only continue to expand in importance as e-readers become better, cheaper, and more ubiquitous. But I can easily see the pdf market taking the blame for poor sales in other areas. If WotC was trying to explain to management why they were getting to 1.5 million people instead of ten times that, "illegal downloads" seems like a pretty safe thing to point the finger at.
TL;DR: I don't think that WotC should have taken down their pdf marketplace. But it makes sense to me that they did. I think they should have issued purely electronic copies of all of their books for 8 dollars or less a piece and try to sell hundreds of thousands of copies instead. But I wasn't
surprised that they chose to shut the entire operation down rather than experiment with it.
-FRank
I dont think they cancelled DMG3 or Arcane Power 2 at all. Simply pushed back release...
The more radical the departure is from previous editions, the more fractured the player base are. WOTC have to be firm on what they intend to do. For 4e obviously they want newer players and hoped that old players will change to the new editions but with Pathfinder and retro-clones, not all old players went to 4e. So what's left? Newbies. Which the Essentials are supposed to do. Will lapsed players actually want to get 4e all of a sudden just because the presentation is nicer than the PHB?
Interestingly, in response to a post by GGROY over on ENWORLD Chris Pramas had this to say:
Originally Posted by ggroy (http://www.enworld.org/forum/images/enw/buttons/viewpost.gif) (http://www.enworld.org/forum/general-rpg-discussion/274947-whatever-happened-necromancer-games-7.html#post5155687)
Fast forward to the present, WotC probably now sees the DDI character builder as a very useful "weapon in their arsenal" for tightly controlling the use of their D&D intellectual property, without ever having to make a strict 3PP license.
Pramas:
I'm guessing they are much more concerned about another unintended side effect of DDI: the strangling of their own book sales. This has become a real problem for WotC.
Makes me wonder if the next edition will try to regain sls in the book market, or give up on it entirely, and focus on the DDI and Cards.
Instead of releasing new books, they will just release new power cards for each 10 levels (ie. heroic, paragon, epic)?
The first power cards released will be boring run-of-the-mill powers, feats, etc ... Subsequent power cards will feature more and more powerful abilities, in an arms race?
WOTC mostly focuses on crunch, which is easier to handle on a software and everybody know they aren't that good in fluff department. They could move to a crunch software and fluff book model. No matter what, fluff has to be in book form. No one likes reading huge text from the screen.
The Essentials doesn't point to a DDI inclined model. So maybe they are trying to get back to their roots? DDI is needed and sworn upon by 4e fans due to the massive amount of crunch that simply a software is much better to handle it than a human. Whenever a newbie wants to get in to 4e, he always gets pointed to getting a DDI subscription instead of buying this and that book, save the core.
Personally, I would point a new player to Pramas's Dragon Age which is IMO, the best introductory fantasy rpg currently.
Quote from: ggroy;374464Instead of releasing new books, they will just release new power cards for each 10 levels (ie. heroic, paragon, epic)?
The first power cards released will be boring run-of-the-mill powers, feats, etc ... Subsequent power cards will feature more and more powerful abilities, in an arms race?
In that case, they should just focus on making a full blown CCG.. wait, they do. I think WOTC should just stop trying to make rpgs what they aren't and trying to step on other game's shoes. It's good they are rolling back minis and just using tokens for the Essentials. If someone loves minis, they would have gone to Warhammer already.
Quote from: Joethelawyer;374457Makes me wonder if the next edition will try to regain sls in the book market, or give up on it entirely, and focus on the DDI and Cards.
Some advantages to 5E D&D being DDI-only without any books:
- no middleman (ie. subscription cash goes directly to WotC)
- errata can be updated quickly
- new crunch can be incorporated into character builder quickly
- better idea of revenue flows via subscription/cancellation patterns
Disadvantages to 5E D&D being DDI-only without any books:
- alienate the old timers, who want to have books
- no revenue from players who don't use a computer
- no revenue from people who are book "completionists", who don't like pdfs or rpg computer software
- fluff can be annoying to read on a computer screen
- endless criticism for abandoning the paper book market
Fifth Edition?
You guys are focusing too much on the online side of things.
When I see the phrase "look like" I think of packached or books in retail store or similiar place.
IF there is ever a Fifth Edition DUNGEONS & DRAGONS in the future - I predict it will be a shrinkerapped combination of hardback plus 4 to 6 miniatures included that are done in HEROSCAPE style and scale. That way they can merge two lines intoi one or overlap them.
- Ed C.
Quote from: ggroy;374498Disadvantages to 5E D&D being DDI-only without any books:
- alienate the old timers, who want to have books
- no revenue from players who don't use a computer
- no revenue from people who are book "completionists", who don't like pdfs or rpg computer software
- fluff can be annoying to read on a computer screen
- endless criticism for abandoning the paper book market
- going more directly up against MMOs, Blizzard etc. which strikes me as a great way to get sunk
I think a 5th edition has gotta have some physical material attached. If they are wise they'll have better DDI, iPhone/iPad interfaces, etc., but they're gonna want to sell chits and maps and books too.
Going up against MMOs is just suicide. Between subscibing for WoW or DDI, WoW will easily win. And Pathfinder will emerge as the flagship RPG.
Quote from: areola;374507And Pathfinder will emerge as the flagship RPG.
Most likely into an ever shrinking rpg market in freefall. It may very well end up being a "pyrrhic victory" for Pathfinder.
One just has to see what happened to wargame companies like SPI, Avalon Hill, etc ...
I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.
Quote from: jrients;374534I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.
If released with no 5th ed. on the title, what sort of game do you think it will be? rrepackaged 4e? or something new? or go back to something old?
Of course it is never going back to something old. Not now, not in 8 years. I've heaqrd this mentioned by edition-warrior fans as being a good justifcation to keep up the attacks, because they think WOTC listens to non-customers, but I really don't think they do.
People suggesting that 4th edition is "insanely crunch heavy" and reliant on DDI are forgetting two important facts.
#1: There was no DDI for the first six months of the game, and it ran along fine.
#2: It's simpler than 3rd edition by far, and there was no DDI then, either.
It's a simple equation in any case: WOTC goes where the biggest audience is, and simply looks for ways to provide what they want. If WOTC thought everyone wanted to play (your favorite edition, style, house rules, whatever): that's exactly what they would produce.
Quote from: jrients;374534I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.
I agree that either of those are distinct possibilities.
Imagine a hard bound roll of used toilet paper, and there you go..
Quote from: areola;374452I dont think they cancelled DMG3 or Arcane Power 2 at all. Simply pushed back release...
That is correct. You can't listen to Frank, he just says things without thinking about them too hard. Note that when I called him on his inaccuracies re: KublaCon, he completely ignored it. He's not deliberately wrong, he just... doesn't notice stuff that doesn't fit his preconceptions.
Quote from: Joethelawyer;374537If released with no 5th ed. on the title, what sort of game do you think it will be? rrepackaged 4e? or something new? or go back to something old?
I doubt WotC would repackage an older version of the game as anything but a limited print run anniversary type thing. The print end of their business model is predicated on "newer is automatically better, so please buy six more PHBs" and the DDI seems designed to accommodate an ever-growing ever-changing ruleset. My point about not calling it 5e is that if they are really going after those 26 million lapsed players, they probably shouldn't market it as a whole new edition. Get away from the numerical system.
Quote from: Thanlis;374550That is correct. You can't listen to Frank, he just says things without thinking about them too hard. Note that when I called him on his inaccuracies re: KublaCon, he completely ignored it. He's not deliberately wrong, he just... doesn't notice stuff that doesn't fit his preconceptions.
I ignored it because you didn't call me on any inaccuracies. I picked some random convention from next month and counted the number of 3rd edition D&D games and 4th edition D&D games being advertised, and 3rd edition had more games advertised when you included things that said "Pathfinder" and "d20" (which are of course, 3rd edition games). That would be a small data point, except that I've done it for some convention or another coming up next month
every month for nearly the last year (July 2009 to April 2010) and it has been true
every time. KublaCon is actually the closest I've seen the numbers get, which sounds like it would be good for 4e but really isn't. 4e putting up less than one game in eight advertised games isn't much different from the numbers I saw in July of last year - the number of 3rd edition games has mostly been higher (proportionately to the size of the Con).
As for the DMG 3, what leads you to believe it was not canceled? They put it on the schedule and then they took it off the schedule. Same with Arcane Power 2. Also, at GAMA they announced that they weren't making any more of the hard bound rulebooks because they were going to Trade Paperbacks to make books more affordable. So not only is the DMG 3 off the release schedule, but the release schedule now extends past when they said they weren't making any more rulebooks like that.
So seriously, what is your evidence that they intend to produce a DMG 3 or Arcane Power 2? The schedule goes to December and those books were scrubbed from the list. And to the best of my knowledge they were never subsequently mentioned in any official channels once they were taken off the list of books to order.
-Frank
Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538People suggesting that 4th edition is "insanely crunch heavy" and reliant on DDI are forgetting two important facts.
#1: There was no DDI for the first six months of the game, and it ran along fine.
#2: It's simpler than 3rd edition by far, and there was no DDI then, either.
This is true for that first few months before the crunch rolled out. Now with many supplements and Dragon's new feat/powers/crunch, most fans NEED the DDI to build a character, especially those that wants to optimize. Of course a casual player can only use the PHB and acted like it was first 6 months ago.
Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538It's a simple equation in any case: WOTC goes where the biggest audience is, and simply looks for ways to provide what they want. If WOTC thought everyone wanted to play (your favorite edition, style, house rules, whatever): that's exactly what they would produce.
It is a simple equation when you state it that way, and that is fundamental for doing business, but you're ignoring a couple of important parts of the real equation.
-- What WotC would
like to produce.
-- The sway WotC, as owner of the brand, has over those who have no strong opinions on the matter, or who are simply suggestible.
Those are fundamental in business (or marketing), too.
Don't try to make it sound like sound like whatever WotC does with D&D is exactly what the average player has decided is best for themselves.
Quote from: jrients;374577The print end of their business model is predicated on "newer is automatically better, so please buy six more PHBs" and the DDI seems designed to accommodate an ever-growing ever-changing ruleset.
qft
Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538Of course it is never going back to something old. Not now, not in 8 years. I've heaqrd this mentioned by edition-warrior fans as being a good justifcation to keep up the attacks, because they think WOTC listens to non-customers, but I really don't think they do.
I've learned from months of experience that 4e is not my bag, but I'm not fooling myself into thinking that they would be more successful by reimplementing 0D&D, or something. However, if WotC has no interest in the opinions of 'non-customers', even freshly minted non-customers, they're turning their corporate back on a long heritage of success that is far greater than anything I see in the future of the brand.
"What's old is new again" sounds a lot better than "The people who gave us all that money in the past are irrelevant".
Quote from: FrankTrollman;374620I ignored it because you didn't call me on any inaccuracies. I picked some random convention from next month and counted the number of 3rd edition D&D games and 4th edition D&D games being advertised, and 3rd edition had more games advertised when you included things that said "Pathfinder" and "d20" (which are of course, 3rd edition games). That would be a small data point, except that I've done it for some convention or another coming up next month every month for nearly the last year (July 2009 to April 2010) and it has been true every time. KublaCon is actually the closest I've seen the numbers get, which sounds like it would be good for 4e but really isn't. 4e putting up less than one game in eight advertised games isn't much different from the numbers I saw in July of last year - the number of 3rd edition games has mostly been higher (proportionately to the size of the Con).
Um... I'm not sure what to say here. Go back and read my post. I'm guessing that you forgot to count RPGA games as 4e games.
For the rest of the crowd -- you see my point, no doubt.
Quote from: Thanlis;374651Um... I'm not sure what to say here. Go back and read my post. I'm guessing that you forgot to count RPGA games as 4e games.
I've been wondering that as well. I only go to small local cons so it's anecdotal but the RPGA events usually outnumber all other versions of D&D combined and sometimes all other rpg events.
The first step will be emailing every current DDI subscriber with the message "FUCK YOU! We're firing you as a customer!"
The third step will be profit.
Quote from: jrients;374653I've been wondering that as well. I only go to small local cons so it's anecdotal but the RPGA events usually outnumber all other versions of D&D combined and sometimes all other rpg events.
My experience as well. Also you can't just count the number of events either. Some of the RPGA events are setup with more than one table and GM. Basically they pool the players that signed up for that event and then divide them up into table each run by a GM.
Quote from: estar;374666My experience as well. Also you can't just count the number of events either. Some of the RPGA events are setup with more than one table and GM. Basically they pool the players that signed up for that event and then divide them up into table each run by a GM.
To be fair, the Pathfinder Society events work the same way. But yeah, for real accuracy, you'd count the number of player slots available for each event.
Time capsule necro.
Quote from: TAFMSV;781113Time capsule necro.
I think I am going to say that overall, the winner of 'as it turned out talked the most sense' was jrients.
Quote from: Warthur;374161They'll finally go classless, levelless and GMless, thus severing the last few connections to traditional D&D.
/throws crystal ball in bin.
Quote from: Daztur;374170It'll probably be 4ed with some minor changes and rebalancings just like what 3.5ed was for 3.0ed or 2ed was for 1ed. I don't think there'll be any big changes to the ruleset mostly a cleaning up of the math and general tweaking. Maybe one big change would be setting things up to make it so that you can't use your dailies unless some condition is satisfied so you get fights that go like:
A. PCs are outgunned and start getting beat up.
B. PCs turn the tables with a daily and win.
That'd give the playes a feeling that they won against the odds even though they didn't which is good for the old endorphins...
If they do decide to change things in anything more than a tweaking way it'd probably be a "go back to basics" move and be something like Castles and Crusades. I don't see much middle ground. There's no way that 5ed will try to do something new in a big way.
Not bad, not bad.
Quote from: areola;374507Going up against MMOs is just suicide. Between subscibing for WoW or DDI, WoW will easily win. And Pathfinder will emerge as the flagship RPG.
this one was quite good :)
Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374164It'll be like 4E with improvements, just as 4e was 3.5 with improvements. These improvements will infuriate some, and delight others, and the game will only be picked up by people who actually play it.
Such a mundane question, really.
Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538Of course it is never going back to something old. Not now, not in 8 years. I've heaqrd this mentioned by edition-warrior fans as being a good justifcation to keep up the attacks, because they think WOTC listens to non-customers, but I really don't think they do.
So much asshole wrapped up in one poster.