Going up against MMOs is just suicide. Between subscibing for WoW or DDI, WoW will easily win. And Pathfinder will emerge as the flagship RPG.

Quote from: areola;374507And Pathfinder will emerge as the flagship RPG.

Most likely into an ever shrinking rpg market in freefall.  It may very well end up being a "pyrrhic victory" for Pathfinder.

One just has to see what happened to wargame companies like SPI, Avalon Hill, etc ...

I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.

Quote from: jrients;374534I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.

If released with no 5th ed. on the title, what sort of game do you think it will be?  rrepackaged 4e? or something new?  or go back to something old?

Of course it is never going back to something old. Not now, not in 8 years. I've heaqrd this mentioned by edition-warrior fans as being a good justifcation to keep up the attacks, because they think WOTC listens to non-customers, but I really don't think they do.  

People suggesting that 4th edition is "insanely crunch heavy" and reliant on DDI are forgetting two important facts.

#1: There was no DDI for the first six months of the game, and it ran along fine.

#2: It's simpler than 3rd edition by far, and there was no DDI then, either.

It's a simple equation in any case: WOTC goes where the biggest audience is, and simply looks for ways to provide what they want. If WOTC thought everyone wanted to play  (your favorite edition, style, house rules, whatever): that's exactly what they would produce.

Quote from: jrients;374534I think 5e will either a) not be released by WotC or b) not actually say it's fifth edition anywhere on the product.

I agree that either of those are distinct possibilities.

Imagine a hard bound roll of used toilet paper, and there you go..

Quote from: areola;374452I dont think they cancelled DMG3 or Arcane Power 2 at all. Simply pushed back release...

That is correct. You can't listen to Frank, he just says things without thinking about them too hard. Note that when I called him on his inaccuracies re: KublaCon, he completely ignored it. He's not deliberately wrong, he just... doesn't notice stuff that doesn't fit his preconceptions.

Quote from: Joethelawyer;374537If released with no 5th ed. on the title, what sort of game do you think it will be?  rrepackaged 4e? or something new?  or go back to something old?

I doubt WotC would repackage an older version of the game as anything but a limited print run anniversary type thing.  The print end of their business model is predicated on "newer is automatically better, so please buy six more PHBs" and the DDI seems designed to accommodate an ever-growing ever-changing ruleset.  My point about not calling it 5e is that if they are really going after those 26 million lapsed players, they probably shouldn't market it as a whole new edition.  Get away from the numerical system.

Quote from: Thanlis;374550That is correct. You can't listen to Frank, he just says things without thinking about them too hard. Note that when I called him on his inaccuracies re: KublaCon, he completely ignored it. He's not deliberately wrong, he just... doesn't notice stuff that doesn't fit his preconceptions.

I ignored it because you didn't call me on any inaccuracies. I picked some random convention from next month and counted the number of 3rd edition D&D games and 4th edition D&D games being advertised, and 3rd edition had more games advertised when you included things that said "Pathfinder" and "d20" (which are of course, 3rd edition games). That would be a small data point, except that I've done it for some convention or another coming up next month every month for nearly the last year (July 2009 to April 2010) and it has been true every time. KublaCon is actually the closest I've seen the numbers get, which sounds like it would be good for 4e but really isn't. 4e putting up less than one game in eight advertised games isn't much different from the numbers I saw in July of last year - the number of 3rd edition games has mostly been higher (proportionately to the size of the Con).

As for the DMG 3, what leads you to believe it was not canceled? They put it on the schedule and then they took it off the schedule. Same with Arcane Power 2. Also, at GAMA they announced that they weren't making any more of the hard bound rulebooks because they were going to Trade Paperbacks to make books more affordable. So not only is the DMG 3 off the release schedule, but the release schedule now extends past when they said they weren't making any more rulebooks like that.

So seriously, what is your evidence that they intend to produce a DMG 3 or Arcane Power 2? The schedule goes to December and those books were scrubbed from the list. And to the best of my knowledge they were never subsequently mentioned in any official channels once they were taken off the list of books to order.

-Frank

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538People suggesting that 4th edition is "insanely crunch heavy" and reliant on DDI are forgetting two important facts.

#1: There was no DDI for the first six months of the game, and it ran along fine.

#2: It's simpler than 3rd edition by far, and there was no DDI then, either.

This is true for that first few months before the crunch rolled out. Now with many supplements and Dragon's new feat/powers/crunch, most fans NEED the DDI to build a character, especially those that wants to optimize. Of course a casual player can only use the PHB and acted like it was first 6 months ago.

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538It's a simple equation in any case: WOTC goes where the biggest audience is, and simply looks for ways to provide what they want. If WOTC thought everyone wanted to play  (your favorite edition, style, house rules, whatever): that's exactly what they would produce.

It is a simple equation when you state it that way, and that is fundamental for doing business, but you're ignoring a couple of important parts of the real equation.

-- What WotC would like to produce.

-- The sway WotC, as owner of the brand, has over those who have no strong opinions on the matter, or who are simply suggestible.

Those are fundamental in business (or marketing), too.

Don't try to make it sound like sound like whatever WotC does with D&D is exactly what the average player has decided is best for themselves.

Quote from: jrients;374577The print end of their business model is predicated on "newer is automatically better, so please buy six more PHBs" and the DDI seems designed to accommodate an ever-growing ever-changing ruleset.

qft

Quote from: Abyssal Maw;374538Of course it is never going back to something old. Not now, not in 8 years. I've heaqrd this mentioned by edition-warrior fans as being a good justifcation to keep up the attacks, because they think WOTC listens to non-customers, but I really don't think they do.

I've learned from months of experience that 4e is not my bag, but I'm not fooling myself into thinking that they would be more successful by reimplementing 0D&D, or something.  However, if WotC has no interest in the opinions of 'non-customers', even freshly minted non-customers, they're turning their corporate back on a long heritage of success that is far greater than anything I see in the future of the brand.  

"What's old is new again"  sounds a lot better than "The people who gave us all that money in the past are irrelevant".

Quote from: FrankTrollman;374620I ignored it because you didn't call me on any inaccuracies. I picked some random convention from next month and counted the number of 3rd edition D&D games and 4th edition D&D games being advertised, and 3rd edition had more games advertised when you included things that said "Pathfinder" and "d20" (which are of course, 3rd edition games). That would be a small data point, except that I've done it for some convention or another coming up next month every month for nearly the last year (July 2009 to April 2010) and it has been true every time. KublaCon is actually the closest I've seen the numbers get, which sounds like it would be good for 4e but really isn't. 4e putting up less than one game in eight advertised games isn't much different from the numbers I saw in July of last year - the number of 3rd edition games has mostly been higher (proportionately to the size of the Con).

Um... I'm not sure what to say here. Go back and read my post. I'm guessing that you forgot to count RPGA games as 4e games.

For the rest of the crowd -- you see my point, no doubt.

Quote from: Thanlis;374651Um... I'm not sure what to say here. Go back and read my post. I'm guessing that you forgot to count RPGA games as 4e games.

I've been wondering that as well.  I only go to small local cons so it's anecdotal but the RPGA events usually outnumber all other versions of D&D combined and sometimes all other rpg events.

The first step will be emailing every current DDI subscriber with the message "FUCK YOU! We're firing you as a customer!"

The third step will be profit.