I suspect even if WotC decides to go the print-on-demand direction for supplementary D&D books, they will most likely still have the core books being mass published just to be in gaming stores and bookstores.

For example if 4E D&D had went the print-on-demand model of marketing, I suspect the main core books would still have been mass published just to be in FLGS + bookstores.  Core books like the PHB1/MM1/DMG1, along with at least the PHB2.

Quote from: Aos;374311It remains to be seen, I think. I'll throw one confounding and completely unrelated fact out there. Money buys food. Humans are great about sharing food. Humans are less great about sharing money. Is it the increased utility of money, the fact that you can do more than just buy food with it that makes people reluctant to share? Is it the abstract nature of money? Who fucking knows?
E-books are closer to being real books than money is to being food. Maybe?
How will we feel about them when they are ubiquitous? Fucked if I know.

Quote from: ggroy;374347I suspect even if WotC decides to go the print-on-demand direction for supplementary D&D books, they will most likely still have the core books being mass published just to be in gaming stores and bookstores.

For example if 4E D&D had went the print-on-demand model of marketing, I suspect the main core books would still have been mass published just to be in FLGS + bookstores.  Core books like the PHB1/MM1/DMG1, along with at least the PHB2.

I'm guessing it is the increased utility of money.

How about a digest sized book with the core rules?  Maybe in the 48-64 page range?  A good chunk of rules, with plenty of hooks for the online presence.

I haven't been in a well-stocked honest-to-god FLGS in a long time, but I was today.  I was pretty shocked at the amount of "accessories" available for 4e: Power cards, what's left of the minis, their own tiles now?  While I agree we might see more emphasis on electronic or print-on-demand, I would think they'll keep the bits-n-pieces thing going.

Someone up-thread mentioned making a boxed set like WFRG.  That sounds possible.  Or Descent, which also has many bits.

Quote from: StormBringer;374349I'm guessing it is the increased utility of money.

How about a digest sized book with the core rules?  Maybe in the 48-64 page range?  A good chunk of rules, with plenty of hooks for the online presence.

A 48-64 page core rule digest could work for a rules light system, such as OD&D or one of the D&D box sets from the 1980's.

For something rules dense like 4E D&D, a 48-64 page digest may not be as useful.  I suppose one could list all the level 1 powers, rituals, etc ... for all the classic classes + races, but I suspect that may take up more than 64 pages.

If they were to just mass produce one title as a teaser for DDI online subscriptions, something like a basic D&D "red box" set would probably be a better route.

Quote from: ggroy;374352If they were to just mass produce one title as a teaser for DDI online subscriptions, something like a basic D&D "red box" set would probably be a better route.

That is what I was referring to.  Maybe a trial install of DDI or something, links all over the book to the online rules and utilities, and just a few dozen pages of DM guidelines and the things you would do around the table, like skill challenges or tables of powers for use away from the computer (but no power listings) as a way of providing some utility, but largely as a draw to the online service.

Quote from: StormBringer;374354That is what I was referring to.  Maybe a trial install of DDI or something, links all over the book to the online rules and utilities, and just a few dozen pages of DM guidelines and the things you would do around the table, like skill challenges or tables of powers for use away from the computer (but no power listings) as a way of providing some utility, but largely as a draw to the online service.

Such a box set in principle should be playable for a few levels, such as what was done back in the 1980's for the basic D&D box sets.  For exactly how many levels, is debatable.

At this point in time, I don't know if it's still viable to package a dvd-rom in such a box set.  If the dvd-rom program doesn't run out of the box properly and crashes, a person may just return the box set to the store for a refund without looking at D&D again.  It may be easier to just print a web site link in the book, for a download of an up to date trial version of the DDI character builder.

Quote from: ggroy;374361Such a box set in principle should be playable for a few levels, such as what was done back in the 1980's for the basic D&D box sets.  For exactly how many levels, is debatable.

I would assume the book would, in fact, have little to no character creation rules.  That will drive the consumer to the web page.

QuoteAt this point in time, I don't know if it's still viable to package a dvd-rom in such a box set.  If the dvd-rom program doesn't run out of the box properly and crashes, a person may just return the box set to the store for a refund without looking at D&D again.  It may be easier to just print a web site link in the book, for a download of an up to date trial version of the DDI character builder.

Likely true.  The DVD could just be some minor utility programs, goofy mood music on mp3, stuff like that.

The first 4E starter box set had some pregenerated characters.

Perhaps pregens may be the easier route to go for such a box set, instead of publishing all the possible choices of powers for each class.

In the 4E D&D Encounters game every week on Wednesday, the players have the option of using a pregen character printed on a card, or creating their own character with the DDI character builder.  (Additional points are given to players who created their own character using DDI).

http://www.wizards.com/dnd/Event.aspx?x=dnd/4new/event/dndencounters

Either way, it would be a way to encourage players to subscribe to DDI.

So basically the way they are doing the Essentials line would be a hint of how things are to come? I can foresee 5e having a rules compendium book in print, handy at the table. Since they are taking class and race rules exception based design, all those can be made online with only the iconic races/classes made into print. Again, basically following Essentials method.

As for rules, I think it would be similar to 4e. They managed to level the playing field between classes using the power based system, so I think it's here to stay. The core rules or skill checks/attack rolls are already elegant, so no need to change it unless for the sake of changing.

The only improvements of 4e for 5e would be skill challenges, rituals, length of combat.

Quote from: areola;374417So basically the way they are doing the Essentials line would be a hint of how things are to come?

Yes and no. 4e has done incredibly badly. At GAMA, WotC was talking about how their Essentials Line had "room for growth" because 1 in 16 D&D players actually bought any 4th edition stuff. If you check a random convention listing from next month, you'll find More 3rd edition games than 4th edition games (remember that anything that says "d20" or "Pathfinder" is still on the 3e ruleset). That's terrible. 4th edition D&D is the current edition of Dungeons & Dragons anything less than a majority market share is a colossal failure. Having another game out there with more players is totally unacceptable - even, nay especially if that game is the previous version of the game.

So the Essentials line has a few months to reinvigorate the concepts of 4th edition Dungeons & Dragons. If it fails to sell 2 million copies, James Wyatt gets fired. If it fails to sell five hundred thousand copies, the entire design crew gets fired. Hasbro wants some results, and "almost as much market penetrance as our last edition that we stopped supporting two and a half years ago still has on inertia alone" does not count.

So 5e starts getting worked on seriously in October, after the first month of sales and reviews are back from D&D Essentials. If the box set appears to be tanking (and I am betting that it will), the new edition will be sent in a "radically new direction" to attempt to woo back the tens of millions of D&D players that WotC claims exist that by their own admission are not purchasing 4e products. If D&D Essentials succeeds in reinvigorating the brand somehow, then whatever bold moves D&D Essentials made to make that happen will be the cornerstone of 5e.

-Frank

I am also wondering about the redbox and how it will fare. Sure the grognards might buy it due to nostalgia but majority of them won't due to it still being 4e rules. And will kids suddenly start buying them? They had a starter set before and it wasn't a huge impact. What makes a new box with extra character creation rules more appealing to a newcomer?

I was talking to a fellow gamer about how D&D is. Boardgames, ccgs, wargaming and MMOs are more popular than D&D. Now 4e combines all aspects of it to sell. It doesn't seem to have a focus on what it wants to do exactly, instead trying to cater to all the other types of players.

As for the conventions hosting more previous editions than 4e, it seems sad, but not surprising. So if 5e continues to be like 4e, the number of players will be shrunk down more and more. Not all 4e players will jump to 5e as well.

One should hope the Essential brand does well for the future of D&D.

Quote from: FrankTrollman;374419If you check a random convention listing from next month, you'll find More 3rd edition games than 4th edition games (remember that anything that says "d20" or "Pathfinder" is still on the 3e ruleset).

Frank, please save the cherry-picked statistics and stupid extrapolation for your fan board. And if you must bring them here, get them right.

Search on D&D. You find 33 events. 13 of them are Pathfinder or D&D; 20 of them are 4e. Then search on RPGA; 24 more 4e events. Then search on Pathfinder. 10 events, one of which we already found from searching on D&D. Totals: 44 4e events, and 22 Pathfinder/3e events.

There are also two d20 events, both of which are SF/modern games; that's not chewing into the fantasy RPG mindshare. But if you want to count them, sure, have 24 Pathfinder/3e events. It's still nearly a 2:1 ratio.

Now, that's not nothing. It's clear that Pathfinder has a significant portion of the con mindshare, and I think that's impressive. Of course, because you talk fast and passionately, most people won't notice that you just leaped from "there are more Pathfinder games at one single randomly selected convention" to "there are more Pathfinder players than 4e players." But that's what you did.

You're missing a few steps along the way. This is reality, not House. You don't get to jump to conclusions and be right, and you are not Hugh Laurie.

For that matter, WotC could very well take 4E D&D off the market completely and license the 5E D&D tabletop rpg rights to another company.  What rpg company can afford such a license, is hard to say.

If Paizo's CEO is to be taken at her word, most likely Paizo will not have much interest in licensing D&D.  Though in principle they could do a complete 180, and put in a bid for such a 5E D&D license.  (One never knows what somebody is really thinking, but is not saying).  In the event where Paizo does end up winning such a 5E D&D license, most likely they will just replace the Pathfinder logo with a 5E D&D logo on all the stuff they already published for Pathfinder.

If Mongoose places the winning bid for such a 5E D&D license, mostly likely they will destroy D&D even further, judging by their past reputation for shoddy products during the d20 glut era.  (ie.  Poorly thought out books with crappy editing, and rushed to the market).  They'll also just crank up the supplement treadmill even faster raging on steroids, even more than WotC ever did.  

No idea what White Wolf or anybody else could or would do, if they were to win such a license to do 5E D&D.  Anybody significantly smaller than Paizo, Mongoose, White Wolf, etc ..., would most likely not have the cash to afford such a 5E D&D tabletop rpg license.

As an unknown factor, in principle an outsider with deep pockets could swoop in and win such a 5E D&D license.  What they will do is anybody's guess.

Quote from: ggroy;374426For that matter, WotC could very well take 4E D&D off the market completely and license the 5E D&D tabletop rpg rights to another company.  What rpg company can afford such a license, is hard to say.

btw -- yeah, like that. I think the assumption that there will be a 5e is flawed; if Hasbro does decide at some point that D&D 4e is not worth publishing, it is unclear to me whether or not a new edition could be positioned in a way that would convince them there was more of a chance of success.

There's a funny scenario where 5e is in fact 3e, from WotC, in new trade dress. But I don't know that WotC would really want to do that, even if the numbers made it look good.

Quote from: Thanlis;374429btw -- yeah, like that. I think the assumption that there will be a 5e is flawed; if Hasbro does decide at some point that D&D 4e is not worth publishing, it is unclear to me whether or not a new edition could be positioned in a way that would convince them there was more of a chance of success.

There's also the scenario where Hasbro takes the tabletop rpg D&D game off the market for several years to more than a decade (ie. shelving it).  Such an extreme scenario would imply almost-zero revenue coming in from the tabletop D&D rpg.  The only D&D revenue left, would be from non-tabletop rpg sources like publishing D&D based novels and whatever other stuff which still uses the D&D logo and trademark (ie. video games, movies, cartoons, etc ...).