People continue to claim that the "OSR is dying" (or dead). But do the stats actually support that? In this video, you get the hard data!
#dnd #ttrpg #osr
Well, that's not something I expected, turns out you've a greater chance of successfully funding your product if it's OSR than if it's 5e or any other RPG system!
But, you'll get more money IF it's 5e AND it's successfully funded.
Interesting, good thing I'm not making a 5e or Revival game, my thing is Renaissance.
If I learned anything from my few statistics classes, then it's that statistics are weird.
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales on June 12, 2024, 02:03:26 PMIf I learned anything from my few statistics classes, then it's that statistics are weird.
Plus you need more math/statistics to see if the statistics are statistically meaningful. (Don't forget to adjust for multiple testing! LOL)
Quote from: BoxCrayonTales on June 12, 2024, 02:03:26 PMIf I learned anything from my few statistics classes, then it's that statistics are weird.
I once heard that 80% of statistics are made up. ;)
Being serious and on topic, I am not sure where the pundit heard that the OSR is dying. Nothing I have read shows anyone saying that. I am in many different OSR groups and on different forums and no one is saying that.
Quote from: Tod13 on June 12, 2024, 02:52:05 PMQuote from: BoxCrayonTales on June 12, 2024, 02:03:26 PMIf I learned anything from my few statistics classes, then it's that statistics are weird.
Plus you need more math/statistics to see if the statistics are statistically meaningful. (Don't forget to adjust for multiple testing! LOL)
Maths is from da DEVIL Bobby Boucher!
Quote from: GhostNinja on June 12, 2024, 07:26:01 PMBeing serious and on topic, I am not sure where the pundit heard that the OSR is dying. Nothing I have read shows anyone saying that. I am in many different OSR groups and on different forums and no one is saying that.
The leftists claim it every little while. Jeffro's BroSR recently claimed the same. I said so in the video.
Quote from: RPGPundit on June 13, 2024, 10:23:14 AMThe leftists claim it every little while. Jeffro's BroSR recently claimed the same. I said so in the video.
I am not sure what politics have to do with it. They may be leftists, they may not be. They may just be assholes. All hobbies have them.
Can you point to any of the comments saying this? Because I haven't seen it.
Most likely just a vocal minority with an axe to grind. Either way they aren't hurting the OSR at all. It is still grinding out new products and gains more people as Wizards continues to screw up.
Hello,
I think your analysis minimizes the impacts of both the announced OneD&D release and the OGL fiasco. Both of those likely caused reductions in both plans for 5E-related crowd funding and sales of 5E-based products.
Can you share a link to the article you used for your analysis?
Thanks!
Lou Prosperi
Quote from: LouProsperi on June 13, 2024, 11:37:24 AMHello,
I think your analysis minimizes the impacts of both the announced OneD&D release and the OGL fiasco. Both of those likely caused reductions in both plans for 5E-related crowd funding and sales of 5E-based products.
Can you share a link to the article you used for your analysis?
Thanks!
Lou Prosperi
It's on the video.
OMG! The OSR is dying! Oh shit!
(quickly checks if OSR material is still available online)
OH wait. We're fine...Stuff still there.
Seriously, it's not dying as RPGPundit addressed. IT's not going away. There's thousands of good quality material available just on drivethrurpg.net.
I think people lack perspective. Turn back the clock 40+ years pre-internet. Folks who've been part of the hobby that long ago, we were BEGGING for new material. The RPG industry was small. SUPER small. You had TSR, FASA, Games Workshop, Steve Jackson Games were some of the "Biggies" back then. Self-published was a tiny cottage industry, and was extremely difficult to do.
Today? Again, literally THOUSANDS of OSR titles are available, let alone many publishers have released older versions of their products. Why? Because there's demand for it. Stuff that was OOP (out of print) for years is now available online. Hard to find stuff. Went to SJG Warehouse23 website to see if GURPS Conan was available and by God it is. Hard to find titles not so hard to find now.
Also, is is much easier to self-publish now. Shit, RPGPundit is proof it. Just look at his drivethrurpg.net pages. Back in the day, he would be considered a MAJOR player in the RPG industry. Because the RPG industry is so broad and wide today, he's just one of many PRG publishers putting out good quality products.
The OSR isn't dead or dying. Just like the rest of the PRG industry, it's not concentrated to a handful of publishers. It's dispersed among thousands of self-publishers. IMO, that's a good thing. We have choices. A lot of choices. The more the merrier and the market will separate the wheat from the chaff.
Quote from: GhostNinja on June 13, 2024, 10:27:49 AMQuote from: RPGPundit on June 13, 2024, 10:23:14 AMThe leftists claim it every little while. Jeffro's BroSR recently claimed the same. I said so in the video.
I am not sure what politics have to do with it. They may be leftists, they may not be. They may just be assholes. All hobbies have them.
Can you point to any of the comments saying this? Because I haven't seen it.
Most likely just a vocal minority with an axe to grind. Either way they aren't hurting the OSR at all. It is still grinding out new products and gains more people as Wizards continues to screw up.
Given that you couldn't even bother to watch the video, why the fuck should I do your job for you and look up stuff on social media for you?
How about you go fuck yourself. I've pointed out Swordream, The "OSR IS DEAD" claim before that. I get told that sort of bullshit at least once every month even when there's not a mass movement happening determined to destroy the OSR because of the reasons I elaborated in my video.
Watch my fucking videos, prick, before you post on ANY thread on my videos again.
Quote from: LouProsperi on June 13, 2024, 11:37:24 AMHello,
I think your analysis minimizes the impacts of both the announced OneD&D release and the OGL fiasco. Both of those likely caused reductions in both plans for 5E-related crowd funding and sales of 5E-based products.
Can you share a link to the article you used for your analysis?
Thanks!
Lou Prosperi
For THREE YEARS?
Also, if you want the link WATCH MY FUCKING VIDEO, where I tell you where the link is found.
Quote from: blackstone on June 13, 2024, 12:26:36 PMOMG! The OSR is dying! Oh shit!
(quickly checks if OSR material is still available online)
OH wait. We're fine...Stuff still there.
Seriously, it's not dying as RPGPundit addressed. IT's not going away. There's thousands of good quality material available just on drivethrurpg.net.
I think people lack perspective. Turn back the clock 40+ years pre-internet. Folks who've been part of the hobby that long ago, we were BEGGING for new material. The RPG industry was small. SUPER small. You had TSR, FASA, Games Workshop, Steve Jackson Games were some of the "Biggies" back then. Self-published was a tiny cottage industry, and was extremely difficult to do.
Today? Again, literally THOUSANDS of OSR titles are available, let alone many publishers have released older versions of their products. Why? Because there's demand for it. Stuff that was OOP (out of print) for years is now available online. Hard to find stuff. Went to SJG Warehouse23 website to see if GURPS Conan was available and by God it is. Hard to find titles not so hard to find now.
Also, is is much easier to self-publish now. Shit, RPGPundit is proof it. Just look at his drivethrurpg.net pages. Back in the day, he would be considered a MAJOR player in the RPG industry. Because the RPG industry is so broad and wide today, he's just one of many PRG publishers putting out good quality products.
The OSR isn't dead or dying. Just like the rest of the PRG industry, it's not concentrated to a handful of publishers. It's dispersed among thousands of self-publishers. IMO, that's a good thing. We have choices. A lot of choices. The more the merrier and the market will separate the wheat from the chaff.
Correct. Also, Baptism of Fire just hit Gold Bestseller, and has been #1 OSR bestseller on Drivethru for over 6 weeks now.
Hello,
Quote from: RPGPundit on June 13, 2024, 09:03:46 PMQuote from: LouProsperi on June 13, 2024, 11:37:24 AMHello,
I think your analysis minimizes the impacts of both the announced OneD&D release and the OGL fiasco. Both of those likely caused reductions in both plans for 5E-related crowd funding and sales of 5E-based products.
Can you share a link to the article you used for your analysis?
Thanks!
Lou Prosperi
For THREE YEARS?
Also, if you want the link WATCH MY FUCKING VIDEO, where I tell you where the link is found.
I watched the entire video. Which is why I know at the end you mentioned the possible influence of OneD&D. I'm suggesting that it had more of an impact than you suggest. As for the link, I didn't catch where you said you found the article. Is asking for a link really that much to ask?
As for the 3 years, WotC first announced OneD&D in August of 2022, so just under 2 of those years. Maybe 5E started to drop before that, but the OneD&D announcement likely scared off lots of people planning 5E crowdfunding campaigns.
Lou Prosperi
I stated in the video, that I would put the link in the description. And it's there, right at the top of the description, before the links to all my various products and social media.
Hello,
Apologies. I watched the video here, not on YouTube, and the link wasn't in the post in this thread.
Thanks!
Lou
Interesting. Looking over Hans Messersmith's Kickstarter data here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NeoFj9XbZ29P_mmk2D4uoFCMDwY1lOU9SD5FXNuq7Mg/edit?pli=1&gid=2049869056#gid=2049869056
In the blog post, Xaosseed draws some conclusions from chance of funding, but I don't think that's significant. The threshold for "success" is arbitrary. I think the total and average funding per project are more relevant. For 2023:
- 5E projects: $28.4M over 633 projects -> average $44.8K per project
- Other RPG projects: $19.8M over 880 projects -> average $22.5K per project
- OSR Original projects: $0.9M over 71 projects -> average $12.6K per project
- OSR Scene projects: $7.9M over 190 projects -> average $41.6K per project
So OSR Scene projects are doing fine, just a little less on average than 5E projects. OSR Original projects earn less, but are probably necessary to keep spread in the scene.
I agree with Pundit's premise that OSR isn't dying. It seems to be settling into a stable niche of the RPG market. As a caveat, I don't think that the Kickstarter numbers are the whole story. I'm pretty sure that regular book and PDF sales will be different. Still, Kickstarter is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions even if it isn't fully representative.
Quote from: LouProsperi on June 14, 2024, 08:57:33 AMHello,
Apologies. I watched the video here, not on YouTube, and the link wasn't in the post in this thread.
Thanks!
Lou
Ah, OK. My apologies then. When I find a video linked in some other media I usually open it up on Youtube.
Quote from: jhkim on June 14, 2024, 12:24:11 PMInteresting. Looking over Hans Messersmith's Kickstarter data here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NeoFj9XbZ29P_mmk2D4uoFCMDwY1lOU9SD5FXNuq7Mg/edit?pli=1&gid=2049869056#gid=2049869056
In the blog post, Xaosseed draws some conclusions from chance of funding, but I don't think that's significant. The threshold for "success" is arbitrary. I think the total and average funding per project are more relevant. For 2023:
- 5E projects: $28.4M over 633 projects -> average $44.8K per project
- Other RPG projects: $19.8M over 880 projects -> average $22.5K per project
- OSR Original projects: $0.9M over 71 projects -> average $12.6K per project
- OSR Scene projects: $7.9M over 190 projects -> average $41.6K per project
So OSR Scene projects are doing fine, just a little less on average than 5E projects. OSR Original projects earn less, but are probably necessary to keep spread in the scene.
I agree with Pundit's premise that OSR isn't dying. It seems to be settling into a stable niche of the RPG market. As a caveat, I don't think that the Kickstarter numbers are the whole story. I'm pretty sure that regular book and PDF sales will be different. Still, Kickstarter is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions even if it isn't fully representative.
Well, on DTRPG an OSR game I have some familiarity with just spent an entire month being in the top 5 hot selling list, number 1 in Print, and is still number 1 on the OSR list...
Yeah, this topic came as a surprise to me as well. I don't recall ever hearing this claim that the OSR is dying.
If anything, more OSR games are coming out almost weekly it seems.
Quote from: weirdguy564 on June 15, 2024, 09:56:14 PMYeah, this topic came as a surprise to me as well. I don't recall ever hearing this claim that the OSR is dying.
If anything, more OSR games are coming out almost weekly it seems.
I agree. If anything the OSR is getting bigger as wotc keeps screwing up and pissing people off
If OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.
*6e proper, not 5e 2024
Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 01:26:08 PMIf OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.
*6e proper, not 5e 2024
Not that would be a bad thing. Make D&D great again. :)
Quote from: GhostNinja on June 16, 2024, 01:42:06 PMQuote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 01:26:08 PMIf OSR keeps growing the way it is, WoTC will make 6E OSR.
*6e proper, not 5e 2024
Not that would be a bad thing. Make D&D great again. :)
Ignoring my disdain for WoTC for a moment, but a mix of B/X and 1e with some of the skills from 4e/5e and a unified d20 mechanic... and it being officially D&D would be pretty cool.
Sadly, it's highly unlikely that I would buy it though. I can already get that game from multiple publishers with the benefit of not supporting WoTC. But it would be cool to see official D&D come full circle.
Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 02:49:04 PMIgnoring my disdain for WoTC for a moment, but a mix of B/X and 1e with some of the skills from 4e/5e and a unified d20 mechanic... and it being officially D&D would be pretty cool.
I agree. I am a fan of B/X via Old School Essentials so I would like something like that. I have the B/X books but I haven't read them, yet.
Quote from: Nakana on June 16, 2024, 02:49:04 PMSadly, it's highly unlikely that I would buy it though. I can already get that game from multiple publishers with the benefit of not supporting WoTC. But it would be cool to see official D&D come full circle.
Yeah, I have the same disdain with WOTC and plan to never buy anything from them again.
The interesting thing is that at this point the OSR has outlasted several WoTC editions. Obviously, you can probably point to some group somewhere that is still playing 3.x, or 4e, and there will be some still playing 5e when that finally goes down the drain, but none of those editions are likely to get long-term ongoing engagement.