Here's the video:
Now, let's stipulate that these leaks are all real and accept all the process that dude went through to double-check the identity of the people leaking to him.
What these leaks show to me is more or less what I thought happened internally at WotC, that is Hasbro-appointed executives rolling over the creative guys and pushing through their agenda for a truly digital D&Done.
The Cao fella really seems like a blast, the kind of leader that would quickly get fragged in a war zone, but his lieutenant Stutzman looks just about as a-holish as his boss.
Now, I have no illusions that the creatives are great people. They're mostly sparkletrolls that would happily dance and urinate over our graves if given a chance, but it is interesting to see that even they were feeling the squeeze from the executives, and how much of a shitty environment such leadership tends to create.
For me, the major takeaway from the whole thing is the idea that Cao wants to make D&D essentially a fully online game, with books turned into collectibles (probably sold at outrageous prices and using FOMO tactics so common in the video games industry where Cao comes from). This seems to be where Hasbro wants D&D to go, carried by the COVID-induced boom to online play and appealing to the screen-addicted of today and tomorrow.
Your thoughts?
Can we just say fuck these people and ignore anything WotC does from here on out?
The thing for me personally is, for years I've heard about the massive juggernaut network effect, but I've been getting out into the wild for the first time in half a decade, and there are players of all ages in my city wanting to play any cool game that I can bring to the table, whether it's OSR or even (with a little more effort) OOP grognard fare. The new Rolemaster release on Drivethru has been selling like hot cakes. People aren't married to WotC. Now more than ever.
Quote from: BronzeDragon on January 28, 2023, 11:45:11 PM
the major takeaway from the whole thing is the idea that Cao wants to make D&D essentially a fully online game, with books turned into collectibles (probably sold at outrageous prices and using FOMO tactics so common in the video games industry where Cao comes from).
If this is truly their gameplan then they're more detached from market realities than I ever could have imagined. RPGs simply can't be marketed this way. At heart they
require users to create their own content. And #WotC would have lost nothing by creating
new products while catering to that market instead of trying to replace it outright.
Quote from: TheShadow on January 29, 2023, 04:00:22 AM
Can we just say fuck these people and ignore anything WotC does from here on out?
The thing for me personally is, for years I've heard about the massive juggernaut network effect, but I've been getting out into the wild for the first time in half a decade, and there are players of all ages in my city wanting to play any cool game that I can bring to the table, whether it's OSR or even (with a little more effort) OOP grognard fare. The new Rolemaster release on Drivethru has been selling like hot cakes. People aren't married to WotC. Now more than ever.
If You GM It, They Will Come.
Quote from: Anon Adderlan on January 30, 2023, 07:33:53 AMIf this is truly their gameplan then they're more detached from market realities than I ever could have imagined. RPGs simply can't be marketed this way. At heart they require users to create their own content. And #WotC would have lost nothing by creating new products while catering to that market instead of trying to replace it outright.
Well, the leaks directly mention Cao's idea that he wants to turn D&D into an online thing because he comes from video games and, in his words, "they're basically the same thing".
Clearly we have a situation where a very successful executive from a different area has been tasked with imagining a future for this area that is unfamiliar to him, and envisioned a future very similar to the future he saw for the area he
is familiar with.
Keeping books as "valued collectibles" is part of this future Cao sees for D&D, which would mainly be focused on the all-encompassing VTT where players often wouldn't need a DM and, according to one of the leakers, not even other players, which would be handled by AI. It's an idea to turn D&D into a sort of weird single-player MMORPG (yes, a contradiction in terms, but such are the times).
It's all baffling to me, except in how it all gets geared towards monetization in a similar manner to current online games.
Quote from: Anon Adderlan on January 30, 2023, 07:33:53 AMIf this is truly their gameplan then they're more detached from market realities than I ever could have imagined.
Or they have significant insight on VTT play that supports their new bizplan.
Perhaps they know something we don't.
It's possible. Not probable, but possible.
Quote from: Anon Adderlan on January 30, 2023, 07:33:53 AMRPGs simply can't be marketed this way. At heart they require users to create their own content.
I disagree. Since the dawn of RPGA's "official" adventures and their various iterations of "Adventurer's Guild" play since the 80s, there is a large segment of D&D GMs who only run adventures-as-written and players whose only experience gaming is TSR or WotC approved campaigns.
6e VTT would just be transfering that Living Campaign concept online.
Quote from: Anon Adderlan on January 30, 2023, 07:33:53 AMAnd #WotC would have lost nothing by creating new products while catering to that market instead of trying to replace it outright.
Absolutely.
I'd take it a step further. By not shitting the bed, WotC could have encouraged a greater number of traditional RPGers to become "sometimes VTTers" than what's most likely to occur now.
...Except maybe their data shows that will happen anyway as most D&D players have a deep emotional connection to the brand, often since childhood.
Quote from: Anon Adderlan on January 30, 2023, 07:33:53 AM
Quote from: BronzeDragon on January 28, 2023, 11:45:11 PM
the major takeaway from the whole thing is the idea that Cao wants to make D&D essentially a fully online game, with books turned into collectibles (probably sold at outrageous prices and using FOMO tactics so common in the video games industry where Cao comes from).
If this is truly their gameplan then they're more detached from market realities than I ever could have imagined. RPGs simply can't be marketed this way. At heart they require users to create their own content. And #WotC would have lost nothing by creating new products while catering to that market instead of trying to replace it outright.
I have no insider information, but I think Hasbro has had low interest in engaging with the TTRPG market as it currently exists, for the same reason that lots of talented writers don't write for TTRPGs even if they love TTRPGs. The profit margins are far too small. They publish a handful of official books a year in order to keep the brand name alive, but those books are an investment, not a profit driver.
My impression of the OGL de-authorization is that they weren't trying to take over the TTRPG market for itself, but because they are trying a new digital strategy. I don't know enough about the space or their approach to draw conclusions. I'll wait and see.
D&D Shorts has already been exposed once for falsifying information for Youtube hits. So I take nothing they claim as true till something actually turns up to confirm it that isnt suspect as well.
Going online is not their new plan, because it isn't new. It's been their plan since 3rd ed. They've been talking up their aborted non-starter VTT for twenty years now, with the CD-ROM that came in the original 3rd edition PHB, the 4e character builder and online compendium; every edition has had a clear drive from WotC that they want an online software product for the game. And every edition has failed, because they're incompetent at making software. But this time, thanks to buying out a company that was more competent and throwing a money truck at it, they have an honest shot at getting a workable product out. As soon as they can realistically claim to have a fully-functioning D&D VTT, they are going to focus everything they have on it. Zero doubt in my mind.
Initially I poo-poohed their idea of AI DMs as absurd.
But then this wandered across my desk: https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-to-use-chatgpt-creator-openai-to-help-create-some-of-its-content-11674752660
Would it work? Honestly, I don't know. I'm at a bit of a loss, although frankly Buzzfeed is such a pile of dogshit having an AI write its columns could only be a net improvement.
But it does make me wonder.
Quote from: Ghostmaker on January 31, 2023, 02:27:49 PM
Initially I poo-poohed their idea of AI DMs as absurd.
But then this wandered across my desk: https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-to-use-chatgpt-creator-openai-to-help-create-some-of-its-content-11674752660
Would it work? Honestly, I don't know. I'm at a bit of a loss, although frankly Buzzfeed is such a pile of dogshit having an AI write its columns could only be a net improvement.
But it does make me wonder.
ChatGPT started great, but the real aim of the developers isn't the AI but the consorship tools.
That being said, hiring talented programmers to develop an AI that plays or runs an RPG has been proven to be feasible. If you're a corporation worried that DM's are the bottleneck and your only real buyers and want to correct both issues an AI is the tool you're looking for.
Now, we're talking about Wokesters of the Coast, anyone thinks they will not censor the AI to the point where it can no longer play/run an RPG?
If they manage to:
Hire talented developers
Not engage in any more controversy that creates bad PR for them
Avoid nerfing the AI
They stand a very decent chance of making millions hand over fist.
Let's be honest here, how many times have you seen people asking for advice to play solo? I have a good friend in Australia that can't find a group due to time zones.
There's a market for what we believe they're trying to do, but IMHO the chances of Wankers on the Beach borking it approach 100%
Quote from: Ghostmaker on January 31, 2023, 02:27:49 PM
Initially I poo-poohed their idea of AI DMs as absurd.
But then this wandered across my desk: https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-to-use-chatgpt-creator-openai-to-help-create-some-of-its-content-11674752660
Would it work? Honestly, I don't know. I'm at a bit of a loss, although frankly Buzzfeed is such a pile of dogshit having an AI write its columns could only be a net improvement.
But it does make me wonder.
I've thought for a long time that the way out of that particular snag was instead of making an AI GM, make an AI GM assistant. Think a little like an RTS game (except not really "real time"), where the GM has tools that act as scripting on steroids to make up for the fact that there is only one of him to a bunch of players--and more critically, to save him the time and attention to override the AI when it makes sense.
The AI deciding to send 3 orcs down the side passage to sneak up behind the party while the rest of the orcs engage in the front, with a decision of how close to get before charging? There's a lot going on there, especially when you consider changing environments, the computational cost of path evaluations, etc. A human GM decides to do it, and leaves the AI to plot the path and move is much more plausible. The GM might even forget in the heat of the moment that he did it, and be surprised when the 3 orcs show up.
Don't get me wrong. I think an AI GM is, at best, recreating a really bad human GM in narrow circumstance, while the AI GM assistant idea is still nowhere as flexible as a real, good GM at the table. But as a means to get people onto the online environment and having fun in a somewhat different way, while you work out the bugs, I can see it. Given a really good user interface for the GM, dedication to letting the GM run his game, and about 10 years of trial and error, I can even see it being a new, fun slant. I can't see WotC having the patience to satisfy any of those requirements.
Quote from: GeekyBugle on January 31, 2023, 02:36:33 PM
Let's be honest here, how many times have you seen people asking for advice to play solo? I have a good friend in Australia that can't find a group due to time zones.
Over on reddit, I see it happen daily. The number of solo games, tools, and users has exploded over the past few years.
Small tangent, on my DTRPG page, 23 of my products (all free) are solo games or tools. And, I have over a dozen javascript 'web toys' on my home page for GMs and solo players.
Quote from: GeekyBugle on January 31, 2023, 02:36:33 PM
ChatGPT started great, but the real aim of the developers isn't the AI but the consorship tools.
ChatGPT censors more aggressively than Google, and has much more control over information it provides.
I suspect Cao is going to be removed from D&D shortly.
Quote from: Thor's Nads on January 31, 2023, 11:49:28 PM
Quote from: GeekyBugle on January 31, 2023, 02:36:33 PM
ChatGPT started great, but the real aim of the developers isn't the AI but the consorship tools.
ChatGPT censors more aggressively than Google, and has much more control over information it provides.
Yes, but that's not how it started (ChatGPT), the censorship has been increasing by leaps and bounds.
Quote from: GeekyBugle on February 01, 2023, 01:18:55 AM
Yes, but that's not how it started (ChatGPT), the censorship has been increasing by leaps and bounds.
Currently the censorship is very crude and obvious. The real trick would be to make it invisible, to have the AI give plausible looking responses where the censored/altered material meshes invisibly with other material. The ultimate goal would be something that comes across as reasonable as our John Kim here. ;D
Quote from: Mistwell on February 01, 2023, 12:15:15 AM
I suspect Cao is going to be removed from D&D shortly.
Just a feeling or something more?
If he was responsible for this whole debacle, then it's possible Hasbro would let him go, but then they might have to rethink the strategy he has been putting in place for the future of their IP.
Quote from: BronzeDragon on February 01, 2023, 01:02:49 PM
Quote from: Mistwell on February 01, 2023, 12:15:15 AM
I suspect Cao is going to be removed from D&D shortly.
Just a feeling or something more?
If he was responsible for this whole debacle, then it's possible Hasbro would let him go, but then they might have to rethink the strategy he has been putting in place for the future of their IP.
Unlikely. If they do, it represents a repudiation of the strategy he's been pushing, and an admission that they goofed. And upper management HATES to admit they fucked up.
Still, this IS clown world, and weird things happen every day.
Quote from: Omega on January 31, 2023, 04:29:56 AM
D&D Shorts has already been exposed once for falsifying information for Youtube hits. So I take nothing they claim as true till something actually turns up to confirm it that isnt suspect as well.
He didn't falsify anything. He reported what his sources told him, and corrected things once he became aware that the information was incorrect.
Quote from: Chris24601 on January 31, 2023, 01:45:18 PM
If someone says "hey, double-check your chute" before you jumped out of airplane would you accuse them of spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt? Do you find the guy who you've seen hasn't checked any of the chutes and isn't actually jumping out of the plane saying "Nah, it'll be fine! Just jump!" to be exercising reasonable caution?
This is exactly the sort of thing The Left does that drive me utterly bonkers.
Quote from: Chris24601 on January 31, 2023, 01:45:18 PM
Have you by chance glanced at the changes made in the animated Vox Machina series to avoid using distinct elements of Hasbro's IP? (Hint - the petrifying tentacle monster in the latest batch of episodes was a Beholder in the actual play stream).
Was wondering about that.