At my store, PF has almost totally died since 5E came out. Peoples' reaction to 5E has been overwhelmingly positive from the get-go. Sales are still very strong and shows no sign of slowing down. I have exactly 2 PF customers. For my area at least, PF is in serious decline.

Quote from: Doom;1028610I reckon they'll reduce the hit die of the fighter to d8, to make it more balanced.

And increase the druid, cleric, sorcerer and wizard hit die up a step at the same time.

Quote from: DNDWoodElf;1028630At my store, PF has almost totally died since 5E came out. Peoples' reaction to 5E has been overwhelmingly positive from the get-go. Sales are still very strong and shows no sign of slowing down. I have exactly 2 PF customers. For my area at least, PF is in serious decline.

A game store near me just quit carrying Pathfinder entirely. Paizo says they just had their best year ever, though.

Quote from: fearsomepirate;1028684A game store near me just quit carrying Pathfinder entirely. Paizo says they just had their best year ever, though.

Yeah - from what I've heard (though - nothing 'official') Paizo's sales have remained solid even as 5e retook market leader position for D&D. So - Paizo's been getting a smaller piece of a bigger pie as the TTRPG market expands.

Quote from: Warboss Squee;1028678And increase the druid, cleric, sorcerer and wizard hit die up a step at the same time.

Well, they need to. It's not fair that potentially a fighter could take the same damage as a wizard, and survive. They really need to fix that. Also, that sacred cow about wizards not wearing armor should be killed, it's just a holdover from Gygax anyway, and, again, wizards should get a class bonus of being able to move full speed in heavy armor, so that they're not penalized just because we're killing a sacred cow.

Why are people thinking Paizo is 'doomed', they are a storefront first and foremost.  They'll be fine.  Hell, they were selling 4e stuff on their site ALONGSIDE Pathfinder.  If Pathfinder crashes and burns, they'll still be here sellin' other people books.

The real question is whether this will take the wind out of D&D 5E's sails the way that Paizo did with 4E.  Hard to say, but I think 5E has more general appeal than 4E, which could help Hasbro weather the storm.

Quote from: Votan;1028746The real question is whether this will take the wind out of D&D 5E's sails the way that Paizo did with 4E.  Hard to say, but I think 5E has more general appeal than 4E, which could help Hasbro weather the storm.

No, they won't.  Not even close.

Quote from: Christopher Brady;1028751No, they won't.  Not even close.

D&D 5E won't weather the storm or pathfinder won't come close to be as successful at taking market share as last time?

Quote from: Votan;1028759D&D 5E won't weather the storm or pathfinder won't come close to be as successful at taking market share as last time?

Pathfinder is done.  5e's popularity among the gamers is too great to be budged from it's spot.

Quote from: Christopher Brady;1028760Pathfinder is done.  5e's popularity among the gamers is too great to be budged from it's spot.

Yes. IMO there isn't going to be a storm - this basically won't impact 5e sales at all. OTOH PF 2e will sell pretty well, to many current PF players and to people who think 5e lacks crunch. I know a 4e fan who dislikes 5e's lack of crunch & is interested in picking up PF 2e in the hope it's less broken than PF 1e - but she's the rare case of someone who loves crunch, likes PF, and prefers martial PCs - she made an insanely charopped archer in my PF game that ran to 14th level, putting out 140+ single target damage per round, every round. She hopes PF 2e will be less biased pro-spellcaster so that she can make uber martial PCs without weeks of charop labour!

The single biggest balancer of 5e was Concentration, which it sounds like PF2 is using (takes one action to concentrate on a spell), so I'm guessing that alone will ensure LFQW is largely brought under control. In addition, there are feats which grant fighters free attacks, and the crit system will ensure that boosting your BAB as high as you can does more for you than just ensuring you hit more often. It sounds like it's going to be a much more robust system than 3.x.

However, I don't think it really matters. The intrinsic quality of a rules system is not a big selling point. 13th Age is a better system than 3.x, and it's a rounding error on the market. If someone were to release a fantasy heartbreaker based on the 5e SRD that fixed people's complaints with the Ranger and a few other weak options, it would barely sell compared to 5e. Because, like it or not, "the RPG industry" is really "the Dungeons & Dragons industry." The only brand in this hobby with any recognition outside active hobbyists is Star Wars. Those are the only two brands with any real ability to draw in new customers. Pathfinder's branding is "a better version of D&D." Its entire product strategy is designed around to appealing to disgruntled D&D players, i.e. people who are already engaged in the hobby. So if Pathfinder is growing, the hobby is probably declining overall, because D&D is the growth-driver.

Quote from: fearsomepirate;1028481Hardly any information is out, but that doesn't mean it isn't too early to make bullshit predictions that are about as accurate as a council of economists predicting what the GDP is going to be next quarter. How do you think PF2 will do, saleswise? Will Paizo maintain steady sales, will this rocket them up to a new plateau or will this be the end for them?

Exactly like how WoD2 did when WW tried the same tactic in the face of having to compete against a really strong D&D edition.
They'll get an initial boost of sales but will ultimately lose a significant chunk of their player base; maybe even worse than what happened to White Wolf, because at least WoD was significantly different from D&D in terms of genre.

On the other hand, with Pathfinder, I think a shitload of gamers will, when faced with the choice of getting a whole new edition of Pathfinder, will either stick to the one they already have or switch to 5e D&D which has a much bigger player base now.

Quote from: James Gillen;1028483Pathfinder is still doing pretty well, this will boost sales of the brand, and the only way this will hurt Paizo is if the new edition really sucks.  Like some I could mention.

JG

I don't think nWoD 'really sucked' as an edition. It just gave a whole bunch of gamers who had been into WoD an exit point which they ended up using.

Even if Pathfinder 2e was demonstrably and definitely a better game than Pathfinder 1e, they will ultimately end up worse then when they started. And if they don't know that, they're idiots.

If they do know that, it means that in essence 2e is a tactic to get a temporary boost of sales from the much smaller amount of people who will buy into 2e, which I guess will be part of a long-term plan to settle into being a much lower-tier company.
Mind you, there's no reason to think that's the case. It wasn't for White Wolf, where nWoD was their gamble to fight back and I'm pretty convinced they thought was what would keep them relevant and profitable in the long term, rather than ultimately destroy them. It's totally possible that Paizo has drunk that very same kool-aid.

I predict:

1)  I will not buy Pathfinder 2.0
2)  I will not give a shit if anybody else buys Pathfinder 2.0 or not.

I just got back from GaryCon.  What's "new" or "hot" has fuckall influence on what's "fun".  More and more young gamers show up at GaryCon every year, raving about how awesome Original D&D is.