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[4E predictions]For the record...

Started by Trevelyan, March 20, 2008, 12:43:44 PM

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Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAs far as publishers' rejection of 3e.....any idiot could have foreseen that publishers would embrace 3.5 instead.

And any idiot can see they'll do the same with 4e.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb3e and 3.5 are so much alike that leaving one for the other is irrelevant.

I can see how you'd consider the move irrelevant, but for the business owner who has to relearn a new system, change internal processes, perhap release errata, watch his 3e backstock suddenly become devalued, etc., there's a bit more to it than you're assuming.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThat's why people are making a big deal about Pathfinder.

Correction. Some people are making a big deal of Pathfinder. As you know, some consider it the dumbest thing Paizo could have done.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambSeanchai, dear boy...this is the second time you've brought up the subject of my precious cock....without provocation, I might add.

Not quite. You're slapping your dick in our face, saying, "Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about! I can predict the future!"

But, also, your inability to conceptualize numbers amuses me. I know you're a dude with a big ego, so I naturally assume you strut about, thinking you're sporting a Holmes.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambYou know what your problem is? You don't listen.

You know what your problem is? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. It's clear you don't know anything about business, about the RPG business, or about the affect the OGL has had on the industry.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambNever did I say that Paizo would never publish 4e material.

Yeah. See, the point is, instead of selling more 4e product to more customers, they'll be using the same amount of internal resources to produce Pathfinder products for a drastically smaller customer base.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey might create a Pathfinder 2.0, but I guarantee you it won't be drastically different from Pathfinder 1.0.

How much is your guarantee for? If the folks here on the RPGsite purchase Pathfinder and then feel the second edition of Pathfinder is drastically different, will you refund their money?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey can't put their entire business on hold while Hasbro is fucking around...

...Pathfinder is now Paizo's main project, and the final version of it is due out in 2009.

This is exactly the kind of logic I expect from you. Paizo can't wait until June, so they're going to hurry up and start working on a product that'll be released...in 2009.
 
Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey'll likely update them, but Pathfinder 2.0 won't be a drastic change, and will probably be just as 3.x-compatible as Pathfinder 1.0 will be.

In other words, kinda sorta compatible. I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank. Folks are willing to give all kinds of d20 stuff a whirl - just not for their D&D games.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe fucked-up thing is that you'd actually derive pleasure from something like that. I weep for you.

You would weep, you overly sensitive priss. Dude, this is the Internet. Seriously. Cowboy up.

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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Hackmastergeneral

Quote from: SeanchaiIndeed.



And, as far as I'm concerned, it's doomed to failure.

Seanchai
Well, sure.  But I don't think 4ed is doomed to failure.  I think, so far, it looks to be a fun and interestinf system.

I just hope WOTC isn't BANKING on getting a huge chunk of MMO players into the fold.  Cause they are in trouble if they are.
 

Jackalope

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhile this is happening, more players will explore the viability of other non-20ish rpgs, especially games with OGLs. No one single game has to "defeat" D&D. Within ten years, Hasbro will, at least partially, defeat itself in the rpg arena.

I find what you are saying intriguing, and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.  More importantly, I stand as an example of the truth of your proposition.

I left gaming in the late 90's.  I focused on more important things, like getting laid and going to concerts.  Oh, and finishing college.  Then 3.0 came out, and I was like "Hey, D&D.  I remember that. I should pick that back up."  But I didn't.  Then 3.5 came out, and I was like "Whew!" and picked that up instead.  Ran a campaign for a few years, bought all the splatbooks that weren't tied to a specific world.  I'm part of that group that made 3.0 and 3.5 such a monster success, gamers who returned to gaming because of the new edition.

Then they announced 4E.  And stopped making new books (unless you call those $20 advertisements they've been releasing "new books").  But I had a gaming budget set aside.  So I bought more miniatures for a month or two, but that rapidly exceeded my ability to paint.  So guess what I did next.  I started buying some of those weird "Indie" games I'd heard about.  I got Dogs in the Vineyard, and Spirit of the Century, and Burning Wheel.  Then I started picking up old used games I loved years ago.

I won't be picking up 4E.  I don't need it.  3.5 is fine for D&D, and I'd really rather focus on more interesting things and not buy into another game that will just end up creating another massive block of books on my shelves I never touch (like my 2E collection).

4E could be great.  It probably won't suck half as hard as I think, but I won't be picking it up.  My players won't be picking it up.  We might pick up stuff like Pathfinder.

I can't imagine I'm alone in this.
"What is often referred to as conspiracy theory is simply the normal continuation of normal politics by normal means." - Carl Oglesby

Sacrificial Lamb

Quote from: SeanchaiAnd any idiot can see they'll do the same with 4e.

Temporarily. :)  

Quote from: SeanchaiI can see how you'd consider the move irrelevant, but for the business owner who has to relearn a new system, change internal processes, perhap release errata, watch his 3e backstock suddenly become devalued, etc., there's a bit more to it than you're assuming.

I can see how the current situation can be so confusing for you. When Pathfinder and other OGL variants enjoy brisk sales from the 3.x market, you'll still be confused. But don't worry your pretty little head about it. Everything will be all right.

Quote from: SeanchaiCorrection. Some people are making a big deal of Pathfinder. As you know, some consider it the dumbest thing Paizo could have done.

Relax. Paizo will be fine.

Quote from: SeanchaiNot quite. You're slapping your dick in our face, saying, "Listen to me! I know what I'm talking about! I can predict the future!"

Again with your obsession with my cock. :cool:  You apparently can't get enough of it. The truth is, Seanchai, you scream for attention with every post you make. You constantly troll because you're desperate for attention. Now that you have it, whatever will you do with it?

And incidentally, what you so conveniently omit is the fact that you snarkily "predict" the future over and over again yourself. But hey, keep fappin' away at that keyboard. It's good for this site to have an  unofficial resident mascot. Our nickname for you can be "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp." :haw:  

Quote from: SeanchaiBut, also, your inability to conceptualize numbers amuses me. I know you're a dude with a big ego, so I naturally assume you strut about, thinking you're sporting a Holmes.

I'm happy to amuse "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp". But please, stop fixating on my banana...:hehe:

Quote from: SeanchaiYou know what your problem is? You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. It's clear you don't know anything about business, about the RPG business, or about the affect the OGL has had on the industry.

If you say so, monkey-boy...:)

Quote from: SeanchaiYeah. See, the point is, instead of selling more 4e product to more customers, they'll be using the same amount of internal resources to produce Pathfinder products for a drastically smaller customer base.

Yeaaaah....about that. Look, chief...Paizo has no choice. The GSL for 4e is under NDA, so the only thing that's been confirmed is that it's incomplete. Oh, and that it's not open. In the meantime, Paizo must produce something, so the only alternative they had was to focus on and create a 3.x-compliant product, which they do have a market for.

Furthermore, they would not receive higher market share from 4e than 3.x, because the 4e market won't last, and the OGL-variant market will. 4e has no OGL, remember? It won't be in print long, because of the "planned obsolescence model". A smart company needs to focus on long-term issues, not just the short-term.

Eventually, the 4e market will dry up while all those OGL-variant games will still be happily chugging along, and we can thank Hasbro for that.

Quote from: SeanchaiHow much is your guarantee for? If the folks here on the RPGsite purchase Pathfinder and then feel the second edition of Pathfinder is drastically different, will you refund their money?

When Pathfinder performs well in the market, will you stop being an Internet troll?

Quote from: SeanchaiThis is exactly the kind of logic I expect from you. Paizo can't wait until June, so they're going to hurry up and start working on a product that'll be released...in 2009.

They have a beta for sale in a few months, and it's nearly as much in demand as the final version of the game. So, technically, they'll have something out for the game this year.
 
Quote from: SeanchaiIn other words, kinda sorta compatible. I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank. Folks are willing to give all kinds of d20 stuff a whirl - just not for their D&D games.

Like Castles & Crusades "tanked"? Like Conan "tanked"? Like Mutants & Masterminds "tanked"? Like True 20 "tanked"? Like Spycraft 2.0 "tanked"? These OGL games all moved away from "bog standard" 3e. They all performed well in the marketplace. You know, I'm actually starting to feel a little sorry for you, Seanchai. Before, I thought you were only an Internet troll, but now I realize you're hopelessly myopic as well.

Quote from: SeanchaiYou would weep, you overly sensitive priss. Dude, this is the Internet. Seriously. Cowboy up.

Seanchai

Look! It's Internet machismo! Thanks for the advice, darling. You can return to your bridge with the other trolls now....:haw:

James J Skach

Quote from: JackalopeI can't imagine I'm alone in this.
You're not [[EDIT: Invite removed]]
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Seanchai

Quote from: HackmastergeneralBut I don't think 4ed is doomed to failure.

I agree. I'm just waiting for the big wave of post release switching.

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambTemporarily.

I would say I don't understand how you can't see this, but it's clear you simply don't want to understand: the 3e and 3.5 markets were temporary, too. You say 4e is going away in a few years...well, so did the previous OGL markets.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhen Pathfinder and other OGL variants enjoy brisk sales from the 3.x market, you'll still be confused.

And in your crazy moon language, "brisk sales" means 2,000 copies.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAgain with your obsession with my cock.  You apparently can't get enough of it.

You know, you're right. I shouldn't even mention it. I was wrong. Given your exaggerated, emotional response to criticism of your ideas, your innate grasp of logic, and your concern about people on the Internet being mean, you clearly have a vagina, not a penis.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAnd incidentally, what you so conveniently omit is the fact that you snarkily "predict" the future over and over again yourself.

Only in as much as it takes to counter your ASCII drool. Moreover, I don't have to predict the future so much as repeat back to you what's happened in the past...

Quote from: Sacrificial LambIt's good for this site to have an  unofficial resident mascot. Our nickname for you can be "Bo-Bo, the wonder chimp."

Dudette, if you're going to try and insult someone, at least do it with style.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPaizo has no choice. The GSL for 4e is under NDA, so the only thing that's been confirmed is that it's incomplete. Oh, and that it's not open. In the meantime, Paizo must produce something, so the only alternative they had was to focus on and create a 3.x-compliant product, which they do have a market for.

4e isn't coming down until June. They have product lined up through the end of the year. In June, they can pick up their copies of 4e and start designing.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambFurthermore, they would not receive higher market share from 4e than 3.x, because the 4e market won't last, and the OGL-variant market will.

First, the 3e and 3.5 markets didn't last either, remember?

Second, RPG products make the majority of their sales in the first three months after their release. A product doesn't have to be viable five years later to be a money maker.

Third, no, they wouldn't receive a higher market share from 4e. There are more producers in the 4e market. However, there are also many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many more customers in the 4e market. So it doesn't matter if their market share is large or smaller - they'll be selling more product (at the same price, using the same internal resources) to more people.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambA smart company needs to focus on long-term issues, not just the short-term.

Absolutely. But we're talking about playing in other people's playgrounds.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambEventually, the 4e market will dry up while all those OGL-variant games will still be happily chugging along, and we can thank Hasbro for that.

They certainly might all still be there and using the same system. But what we're really talking about is companies choosing to do less business than they otherwise could, not whether or not there will be folks to sell OGL products to.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhen Pathfinder performs well in the market, will you stop being an Internet troll?

I'm not an "Internet troll" now, so I couldn't stop.

However, I'm guessing from your evasion, you're not confident enough in your prediction that the second edition of Pathfinder won't be drastically different fromthe first to guarantee folks here their money when that occurs.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambLike Castles & Crusades "tanked"? Like Conan "tanked"?

Yeah.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambLike Mutants & Masterminds "tanked"? Like True 20 "tanked"? Like Spycraft 2.0 "tanked"? These OGL games all moved away from "bog standard" 3e.

"I don't know if you or Paizo has paid attention to the d20 fantasy market, but the farther a product moves away from bog standard D&D, the more likely the product is to tank." I quoted myself and highlighted the relevant portion for the folks with low reading comprehension scores (i.e., you).

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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David R

Quote from: SeanchaiI agree. I'm just waiting for the big wave of post release switching.

And notice how the biggest critics will suddenly morph into the biggest cheerleaders :D

Regards,
David R

Seanchai

Quote from: David RAnd notice how the biggest critics will suddenly morph into the biggest cheerleaders

*cough* Spinchat at TBP *cough*

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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Sacrificial Lamb

Quote from: SeanchaiI was wrong.

Seanchai

And really, your entire post can be reduced to that. :)

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAnd really, your entire post can be reduced to that.

I am so going to enjoy resurrecting this when the market beats Paizo down. Any preference as to how your crow is prepared?

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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Sacrificial Lamb

Quote from: SeanchaiI am so going to enjoy resurrecting this when the market beats Paizo down. Any preference as to how your crow is prepared?

Seanchai

Still pissing all over the thread, Bo-Bo? :piss2:

Spike

Is it wrong of me not to care about his opinions one way or another, but still think Seanchai is the best poster here simply because its so amusing to watch him go?

Never mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....



Entertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!
For you the day you found a minor error in a Post by Spike and forced him to admit it, it was the greatest day of your internet life.  For me it was... Tuesday.

For the curious: Apparently, in person, I sound exactly like the Youtube Character The Nostalgia Critic.   I have no words.

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Seanchai

Quote from: SpikeNever mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....

Well, it's not Lamb's fault. I laid into him first. He was just responding as best he knew how. His style is decidedly shortbus, but I set the tone for the exchange.

Quote from: SpikeEntertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!

Okay. Here are some ranks of...well, not exactly random products on Amazon. com.

Pathfinder - Curse of the Crimson Throne #1: #211,040 in Books
Pathfinder Chronicles Gazetter: #185,297 in Books
4e PHB: #4,139 in Books
4e Core Rulebook Gift Set: #98 in Books

Now, I'm not trying to suggest that Pathfinder won't sell 10,000 copies or that 4e will be wildly more popular than Pathfinder. I'm out and out stating that it's the case one more time.

Ready, Lamb? Get your pissing monkey icon ready. Three. Two. One. Okay! Go!

Seanchai
"Thus tens of children were left holding the bag. And it was a bag bereft of both Hellscream and allowance money."

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Sacrificial Lamb

Quote from: SpikeIs it wrong of me not to care about his opinions one way or another, but still think Seanchai is the best poster here simply because its so amusing to watch him go?

Never mind the responses his posts tend to generate after a while. That's just Icing, man....



Entertain Me, Motherfuckers!!!!

What do you think this is? A Roman Colosseum? ;)