Quote from: Pierce InverarityWell, if 4E is a rush job, then we look fucking forward to Mongoose Traveller, due out in FEBRUARY.

God damn, there's a true statement if ever there was one.  Announcing the publication date before even starting a manuscript was a little hasty, wasn't it?

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaSure there can. Market visibility.

Ask yourself:  Who decided there was a need for a new edition?  Wizards of the Coast themselves, or their corporate owners, Hasbro?  Now ask them.

A new edition puts the brand name squarely in the eye of the consumer again.  A new edition sells new books.  Hasbro is in the business of making money, and they do so by selling you what they produce, not necessarily what you want.

!i!

Precisely - but a new edition that suffers from being rushed out the door runs the risk of not selling as many new books, right?

Lord Hobie

Quote from: Lord HobiePrecisely - but a new edition that suffers from being rushed out the door runs the risk of not selling as many new books, right?

That depends on the goal.  Big companies (and by "big" I mean really, really big corporations) can often afford to rush a slipshod product out the door just to keep a brand name in people's faces.  What they may lack in quality, they can make up for with aggressive marketing.  I was reading an article just last night about how the Barbie division of Mattel (yes, the division) has often done just that to undermine the launch of competing doll lines -- it didn't have to be good, it just needed to be out there now.  Now, D&D ain't dolls, and I don't think they're rushing out a new product in direct competition with another game, but maybe WotC is desperate to capture more of the market share for other reasons (anyone else hear a corporate whip cracking?).

And back to your question, isn't this rather what happened with 3e?  Everyone holding a copy of v3.5 knows how that went down.

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaGod damn, there's a true statement if ever there was one.  Announcing the publication date before even starting a manuscript was a little hasty, wasn't it?

!i!

Well, it is Mongoose, so what else can you expect?  

And I would point out, in support of your post #18, that such is pretty much exactly how Electronic Arts does it's business these days.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaThat depends on the goal.  Big companies (and by "big" I mean really, really big corporations) can often afford to rush a slipshod product out the door just to keep a brand name in people's faces.  What they may lack in quality, they can make up for with aggressive marketing.  I was reading an article just last night about how the Barbie division of Mattel (yes, the division) has often done just that to undermine the launch of competing doll lines -- it didn't have to be good, it just needed to be out there now.  Now, D&D ain't dolls, and I don't think they're rushing out a new product in direct competition with another game, but maybe WotC is desperate to capture more of the market share for other reasons (anyone else hear a corporate whip cracking?).

And back to your question, isn't this rather what happened with 3e?  Everyone holding a copy of v3.5 knows how that went down.

!i!

Your point re: the corporate whip is well-taken.  

One wonders, as far as the D&D brand is concerned, how many more times we'll hear Hasbro's whip crack before they decide to put the beast out to pasture (or unload at a fire sale)...

Lord Hobie

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaNow, D&D ain't dolls, and I don't think they're rushing out a new product in direct competition with another game, but maybe WotC is desperate to capture more of the market share for other reasons (anyone else hear a corporate whip cracking?).

The reason is pretty simple. Sales are down. They've been for quite a while.

It's a fact of the roleplaying industry that after corebooks, supplement sales slowly dwindle down until they are effectively not producing a good return.

So they're giving the brand a shot in the arm with a new edition.

And we have a winner, gentlemen.

!i!

Quote from: Consonant DudeThe reason is pretty simple. Sales are down. They've been for quite a while.

It's a fact of the roleplaying industry that after corebooks, supplement sales slowly dwindle down until they are effectively not producing a good return.

So they're giving the brand a shot in the arm with a new edition.

One has to wonder, though, how many more times they think that strategy will work.  Particularly if 4e sells less than 3e, or even 3.5e (which is certainly a possibility).

Quote from: jgantsOne has to wonder, though, how many more times they think that strategy will work.

As many as they want, I imagine.  I get the feeling that they're going after the new roleplaying gamer market, not the crusty old establishment that's been through this wringer before.

!i!

Quote from: jgantsOne has to wonder, though, how many more times they think that strategy will work.  Particularly if 4e sells less than 3e, or even 3.5e (which is certainly a possibility).

I've asked this here several times, no harm asknig again.

Is anyone in possession of relative figures for the sales of, say, PHB and DMG in 1st ed, 2nd ed and 3rd ed?

Quote from: jgantsOne has to wonder, though, how many more times they think that strategy will work.

Seeing as every industry people agree that this is the current state of affair, they will do that forever. It's how these things work, for most systems:

Core books sell the most, and then it's slow decline from there. It's inevitable and universal in every standard RPG company. So even if D&D was one day dislodged from being the number one RPG selling brand, it would still be the same model.

Quote from: jgantsParticularly if 4e sells less than 3e, or even 3.5e (which is certainly a possibility).

WEll, whether it sells less than 3e or not is not really the prime concern for them. The prime concern is whether they'd sell more D&D stuff in 2008, 2009, etc... by sticking with 3.5, or if they are better off switching to 4th. That's an easy answer. A no-brainer, 100% easy decision.

Of course they probably hope sales are comparable or superior. But what they did then (2000) is not really relevant. It's what they can do in 2008.

Quote from: jgantsOne has to wonder, though, how many more times they think that strategy will work.  Particularly if 4e sells less than 3e, or even 3.5e (which is certainly a possibility).

4e could easily sell less that 3e. I wager it will.

I'll also wager that 4e will increase the total sales of the RPG division many-fold for some time.

And it looks... the way they seem to be parsing out core books across time... that they realize the folly of trying to live off supplements. Using this strategy, they can probably hope to keep healthier sales though the length of the edition.

Which still does nothing to interest me personally in moving forwards, but from a business standpoint, I can't fault them.

Well, remember that the plan is to apparently release new core books every year. I get the feeling this won't be like the 3.5 DMG II or PHB II were like; it'll be brand new "editions" of the existing books with new rules.  This, apparently is Wizards' answer to the whole problem of declining post-corebook sales.

We'll have to see how that goes for them.

Also, suggesting that 4e will sell less than 3e just because there are less gamers now than there were back in 2000 is a faulty perspective on things.  
3e was mostly about bringing back to the fold all the people who had abandoned RPGs because of Story-based gaming. Most of the "boost" in sales they got were not from NEW gamers, they were from people who were coming back into gaming after having left the hobby.

4e is different. Clearly, their goal is to appeal to the kids who are not current gamers, not just in the 3e sense of "let's make it for the existing fans and hope new people will like it too"; but in the sense of "Lets make it specifically FOR the kids, and hope the existing fans will stick to it as well".

This is always risky, but if it succeeds then 4e could VASTLY outsell 3e.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPundit4e is different. Clearly, their goal is to appeal to the kids who are not current gamers, not just in the 3e sense of "let's make it for the existing fans and hope new people will like it too"; but in the sense of "Lets make it specifically FOR the kids, and hope the existing fans will stick to it as well".

And that's a good thing, right?

As long as it's not Narr. :heh:

!i!

Quote from: RPGPunditWell, remember that the plan is to apparently release new core books every year. I get the feeling this won't be like the 3.5 DMG II or PHB II were like; it'll be brand new "editions" of the existing books with new rules.  This, apparently is Wizards' answer to the whole problem of declining post-corebook sales.

A new edition every year is as likely as you starting a gigantic WoD fan site. It is simply not going to happen. There are no ways such a model could be sustained and even less ways that it could be beneficial.

The ideal shelf life of a D&D edition, from a business standpoint, should be between 4 and 6 years. Less than that, you're starting to mess with loyalty and the staying power of the brand. More than that, you're just missing out on money. At less than three years, you'd be looking toward suicide. The game would still sell, but it would likely lose its prestige and eventually, its position as market leader.

The problem currently at WotC is that they fucked up. They know they fucked up. The 4th edition of D&D should have been released in 2006. And 3.5 should never have happened. A simple 3.0 revised, with very superficial cosmetic changes, is as far as they should have gone.

Now they're fucked. 3.0/3.5 overlap enough that there's basically no marketable content to write. But the memories of the last buy-in (3.5) are too fresh. Basically, players' imaginations feel like their game is old news (3.x) but their wallet feel like it's too early for a new edition (3.5).