http://web.mac.com/rsdancey/iWeb/RSDanceyBlog/Blog/C44E7E19-26A7-4C05-89B8-15803410A740.html

Worth reading, over on rpg.net they're being hypercritical but I tend to find that any comments on industry problems gets a hostile reception there.  Too many people with a vested interest in things proceeding same as they ever were I guess.

Me, I suspect it's not quite as bleak as he thinks, but I'd guess he'll be more right than wrong.  I have no idea if he is on the money with his predictions for White Wolf and I'm not sure how it fits with the new Star Wars rpg I thought WotC was coming out with (which seems a pretty big licence to me).

Still, I'm not an insider and all I know I get from listening when others speak, so if anyone has better knowledge please say how it all strikes you.

Oh boy, that's some good analysis there.  A lot to digest

This "new platform": I've often wondered whether/when the GM and player aids developed for online gaming (via IRC or whatever) would impact on tabletop gaming.  In theory, I love crunch.  In practice fiddly, interacting rules get in the way of gaming.

For example: I love the setting and concept of Exalted, but having to figure out how my Adamantium Wang Technique interacts with my opponents Five Buttfucked Monkey's Prana is not my idea of a good time.  I'm even contemplating using Risus to run a Ptolus campaign because high-level D&D 3.5

Imagine that each player had a PDA/next-gen mobile phone, linked via a wireless network.  Character sheets and a rules engine are stored on this gadget.  You roll the dice (or let it roll them) and all the calculations are done for you.  Think multi-player NWN 1 or the The Temple of Elemental Evil game.  If the engine is in Java then it isn't dependant on a particular type of mobile

We're already seeing similar stuff to this with Animal Crossing and Nintendogs - I just want to up the complexity level a bit

This could be the iPhone's killer app - probably not this year, but maybe the next

Comments?

Quote from: Hastur T. FannonImagine that each player had a PDA/next-gen mobile phone, linked via a wireless network.  Character sheets and a rules engine are stored on this gadget.  You roll the dice (or let it roll them) and all the calculations are done for you.  Think multi-player NWN 1 or the The Temple of Elemental Evil game.  If the engine is in Java then it isn't dependant on a particular type of mobile

I had this idea years ago.  I've been kicking it around since then - the mix of computers to handle the crunch, but keeping the social aspects of tabletop RPGs. Only in my idea, there is a cerntral game server in the mix (could be just one of the devices designated to be such) that has the rules set and world information - the GM machine.

I even referenced it kinda on this thread here, where I talk about the fact that someone has already patented physical dice that give off an RFID signal of what was rolled - so you could even keep the aspect of rolling dice and then let the computer read the signal and act according to the roll (and no fudging!).

Now combine all of this with a holographic display in the middle of the table and a simultaneous resolution and...well...it's just an idea...

I think most of his predictions are right, but have been accelerated by about 2 to 4 years. He's seeing this as happening way faster than is likely.

Quote from: JamesVI think most of his predictions are right, but have been accelerated by about 2 to 4 years. He's seeing this as happening way faster than is likely.

I do think he's got several interesting predictions in there, but agree that they've likely been sped up by a couple years..

Ryan has always been a doom sayer. That said, in general I think he is close to the mark except for his view on small press. Mid tier companies always take the hardest hits in these situations because they often carry so much overhead. Small Press will survive "The End Of Days" TM because, if they are about business, they have small overhead and always maintain multiple channels of distribution.

So, yeah, mid tier will take it on the chin, large companies will explore mass, and small press will keep cons interesting. Not too much new there.

Bill

I see the predictions individually as "plausible, but not certain". Perhaps as many as half might come true, which would be a good track record, all things considered.

I find the talk of further collapse of the distribution chain interesting. I sort of consider the existing distribution chain antiquated, and think that a shallower chain with more reliance on direct connections between publisher and retailer would, in the end, give the industry a shot in the arm.

In the general sense, Ryan Dancey is definitly right. Roleplaying as a hobby is in bad shape. It doesn't matter if an individual has access to games and gamers. It's still a hobby in bad shape in general.

At RPG.net, a lot of people are in complete denial and have been ever since their perspective has been totally skewed by a delusional love for small, crappy games that nobody plays.

Barring some major events, this hobby will continue to decline and will be virtually gone in 10 years. At that point, the production of roleplaying items for consumers will be near unsustainable. In 20 years, it will be extinct, except in rare individual cases.

D&D4th edition will play a major role in the future of this hobby. And we definitly need some new ideas and new hits as well.

Quote from: Caesar SlaadI find the talk of further collapse of the distribution chain interesting. I sort of consider the existing distribution chain antiquated, and think that a shallower chain with more reliance on direct connections between publisher and retailer would, in the end, give the industry a shot in the arm.

Well, some of the industry, right?  I'm thinking it wouldn't be such great shakes for the distributors.

But that's always the question when you're predicting the doom or health of "the industry," innit?  Where do you draw the lines, what do you include, what do you exclude?

If you include MMORPGs (for their roleplaying) and CCGs (for their game-play and fantasy elements) then the RPG industry is spectacularly stronger than it's ever been, and only growing.  If you include only the exact same industry elements that were in place whenever you, personally, started roleplaying then the industry is going to be forever in a state of slow collapse.  Money tends to migrate from one way of doing things to another, as new business methods and new products are created.  To my way of thinking that energetic change and improvement is the sign of a healthy industry.

Quote from: HinterWeltSo, yeah, mid tier will take it on the chin, large companies will explore mass, and small press will keep cons interesting. Not too much new there.

As a general "wide prediction", I believe this one right here.

Quote from: TonyLBIf you include MMORPGs (for their roleplaying) and CCGs (for their game-play and fantasy elements) then the RPG industry is spectacularly stronger than it's ever been, and only growing.  If you include only the exact same industry elements that were in place whenever you, personally, started roleplaying then the industry is going to be forever in a state of slow collapse.  Money tends to migrate from one way of doing things to another, as new business methods and new products are created.  To my way of thinking that energetic change and improvement is the sign of a healthy industry.

It's cool that you are seeing that way but I don't.

I draw the line at tabletop roleplaying, where you've got face to face interaction with some folks and get to roleplay cool adventures. That's not snobbery or anything. I think it's great that people enjoy other hobbies such as boardgames and computer games (heck, I'm about to buy a few myself) or CCGs. It's just not the same.

I also completely disagree that it is in any way an "improvement". Rather, it's a change, as you said. They're not improving the way we interact face to face to roleplay. Those are entirely different medium. Absolutely unable to accomplish what we are accomplishing, just like we aren't accomplishing what these medium do when we roleplay.

Doesn't mean we can't learn from these things, port some of these things or enjoy them. But it's not "roleplaying".

Quote from: Levi KornelsenAs a general "wide prediction", I believe this one right here.

Who wouldn't? It's already been happening for 6 years now

Mid-tiers are dying and will most likely continue to do so, much to my chagrin.

Nice to see the idiot has the same doom and gloom predictions over the WW/EVE buyout everyone else does.  

They're still idiotic.

EVE purchased WW specifically for their publishing capacity, not to gut them for IP.  They made that abundantly clear when they announced in the same damn press release for the buyout plans for an RPG, continuation of their card game, and other book spinoffs from the series.

WW is going to remain a publisher first for a long time, and the EVE guys are goign to help them do it.

EDIT:  Further, after only three game projects that either failed from the start, or bombed out of the gate, I HIGHLY doubt their as chomping at the bit to try the vidgame market again.  Both Vampire games were largely terrible and sold poorly, and their Werewolf game got shitcanned after years of worked when it turned out the game was actually rather crap really.  

Sure the EVE team are a lot better developers, but they only have one game under their belt with no proof that they have the ability or even the manpower to shift away to generate a good second project.

Quote from: Consonant DudeWho wouldn't? It's already been happening for 6 years now

Mid-tiers are dying and will most likely continue to do so, much to my chagrin.

Yep.

Which brings us ever closer to the point where most game creators need to pray for the long tail.

Quote from: Chicken LittleTHE SKY IS FALLING...THE SKY IS FALLING!!

I can tell you right now what would get me out of the hobby lickety-split is adding a bunch of computerized-bullshit to tabletop role-playing games.

if i wanted that, i'da kept Milton Bradley's Dark Tower.

no, see, i work on computers all day long.  when i game, as a relaxing hobby, i enjoy personal interaction, paper, pencils, and dice. no computers PERIOD.  anything more advanced than a calculator to me is like "hey, go play fucking World of Warcraft."*

i'm still of the opinion that you can look back at the CCG craze as the beginning of the decline of role-playing games...but that's just me.