Quote from: BalbinusAnd the thing with declines, they're generally gradual.  It's not like we'll wake up one morning and all the big boys will have vanished, it will be slower and more erosive than that.  But already we are seeing it around us and frankly have been now for some years.

Exactly. It seems some people expect a sort of sudden and marked collapse. Not gonna happen.

Nobody is going to come and collect our books at home either. Doesn't mean there isn't a general decline.

Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerLet's make a few things clear:

#1: If you're not in print, then you don't mean shit.  The newspaper business has a bit of useful jargon regarding the awareness of common people, and that jargon is "...the fold."  If you're above it, then you're within the awareness of the common people; if not, you aren't and therefore you're irrelevant.  In RPGs, specifically tabletop RPGs, the fold is the bookshelf at either a game shop or a major chain bookstore like Borders.  You can be the big mack-daddy of the PDF, but if you can't get shelfspace at B&N you ain't shit.  PDF is the farm-league ghetto as far as common gamers--if they think of it at all--think of that segment.  Get in print, get on the shelf, or get the fuck out.

The rest of the post I largely agreed with, but this one I think deserves a caveat:
Yes, for the common gamer the PDF market doesn't matter much, but for established gamers, this is a market that seems pretty steady and profitable for those who publish (in the shopper consensus) quality product. If technology and culture embrace ebooks to a greater degree, PDF RPGs could even gain leverage.

For me the most salient points of Dancey's predictions, in the long run, are:
1) The current ways of distribution are messed up and will spell trouble for game makers

2) The big dog companies will spend more resources on expanding the brand beyond the books, even at the expense of the books.

Quote from: JimBobOzWhat is "a real impact"? Sounds like something that'd take a while to build up, yeah? If you're just talking about games released since 2000, well, these guys have only had five years to build themselves up. Other guys have had decades.

I'm talking about new games that would have enough impact to bring a significant amount of roleplayers in. Something like Vampire. We haven't seen something like that since 1991. So I think I've given them more than 5 years.

Quote from: Consonant DudeI'm talking about new games that would have enough impact to bring a significant amount of roleplayers in. Something like Vampire. We haven't seen something like that since 1991. So I think I've given them more than 5 years.

I was called D&D 3.0.

I'm done with you however.  You have a conclusion that you desperately want to believe, and discussing it with you is obviously useless.

Quote from: Consonant DudeSovereign Stone? If you mean, Sovereign Press, you're talking about a company that had a string of failures and now pretty much exclusively deals in Dragonlance material. That's a really, really old IP from the 80s.

I'm thinking he meant Margaret Weis productions, which have made a serious amount of money thanks to the otherwise fatally-mediocre Serenity RPG.  Of course, Browncoats being what they are Ms. Weis could have put nothing but nude photos of her grandmother in there, slapped the "Serenity" title on the cover with a picture of Nathan Fillion, and it would have had exactly the same number of sales as the RPG.

But you can hardly call them "Obscure" or having a "string of failures".  They are riding high on Serenity's sales and now got the license to do the Show That has Stolen The Name of Battlestar Galactica.

Remains to be seen if said show's fans will be as slobberingly obsessive collectors as the Serenity/Firefly fanboys are.  Since they'll be using the same (regrettable) system, that games success and MWP's continued prosperity will pretty well depend on it.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditI'm thinking he meant Margaret Weis productions, which have made a serious amount of money thanks to the otherwise fatally-mediocre Serenity RPG.  Of course, Browncoats being what they are Ms. Weis could have put nothing but nude photos of her grandmother in there, slapped the "Serenity" title on the cover with a picture of Nathan Fillion, and it would have had exactly the same number of sales as the RPG.

But you can hardly call them "Obscure" or having a "string of failures".  They are riding high on Serenity's sales and now got the license to do the Show That has Stolen The Name of Battlestar Galactica.

Remains to be seen if said show's fans will be as slobberingly obsessive collectors as the Serenity/Firefly fanboys are.  Since they'll be using the same (regrettable) system, that games success and MWP's continued prosperity will pretty well depend on it.

RPGPundit

Yeah, Weis has several separate ventures (with different structures). Sovereign Stone did indeed have a string of failures (I think they actually hold a record for most editions of a single released in the shortest time with Sovereign Stone).

As for Margaret Weis production, I suspect Firefly/BSG will lead them straight where Decipher went: to the curb. They are doing an awful job with those licenses. LotR also sold very well but has not had lasting impact.

Quote from: J ArcaneI was called D&D 3.0.

The Dungeon & Dragons brand is the eldest of all. Worse example ever.

Quote from: J ArcaneI'm done with you however.  You have a conclusion that you desperately want to believe, and discussing it with you is obviously useless.

Why would I desperately want to believe something like that? It makes no sense. I'm just sharing observations and agreeing with a few 3rd party reports. You will note that all of those people have a vested interest in this and one would have to be insane to believe that, Ken Hite for instance, actually "wants" to see a decline in the hobby.

Yet that's where we are.

Could it be possible that it's you who refuses to accept any notion that this hobby is indeed declining? Naaaaah. Must be all of us who are actively wishing for the failure of an industry we like :rolleyes:

You ask me whay I think you're delusional, and then you post shit like this:

QuoteThe Dungeon & Dragons brand is the eldest of all. Worse example ever.

You're desperately out of touch if you actually believe 3.0 was anything but the biggest release this hobby had seen since Vampire.  That, combined with the biggest marketing push since the original brought in new people, brought back old people, and even cannibalized players from other markets to boot.

You have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.  You're just babbling vague rumors and speculation, and twisting any facts to suit your own conclusions.  Every company's successes are meaningless unless they support your agenda, every indicator of sales or new releases or demographics is meaningless unless it supports your agenda.

Your posts in this thread amount to the most fucked up bending of reality I've ever seen.  

QuoteWhy would I desperately want to believe something like that?

I can't answer that question, 'cause I'm not you.  Sure comes through loud and clear from your posts though.

Quote from: RPGPunditI'm thinking he meant Margaret Weis productions, which have made a serious amount of money thanks to the otherwise fatally-mediocre Serenity RPG.  Of course, Browncoats being what they are Ms. Weis could have put nothing but nude photos of her grandmother in there, slapped the "Serenity" title on the cover with a picture of Nathan Fillion, and it would have had exactly the same number of sales as the RPG.

But you can hardly call them "Obscure" or having a "string of failures".  They are riding high on Serenity's sales and now got the license to do the Show That has Stolen The Name of Battlestar Galactica.

Remains to be seen if said show's fans will be as slobberingly obsessive collectors as the Serenity/Firefly fanboys are.  Since they'll be using the same (regrettable) system, that games success and MWP's continued prosperity will pretty well depend on it.

RPGPundit

That is what I was referring to yes.  I get them confused because they've used a couple lables over time.  

Serenity, despite the bitching about it that bathed the web, still did pretty damn well as I understand it, largely because of the fanbase as you suggest.

Enough that they managed to snag the license for what is, whether you like it or not, one of the biggest shows on TV right now, and certainly the biggest SF series on TV.  I can't imagine that one was cheap.

Consonant sees big licenses like that as "old news", but it's anything but.  It means the company's managed enough sucess to afford a license, which is nothing to dismiss.  It may not be success that lasts if further licensing gambles don't pay off, but it's undoubtedly signs they're doing well for the moment.  

But he's too busy shreaking doom and calling us all old fogeys to really think that straight.

One of the things that would be useful to talk about is the issue of about RPGs being something where a group of 4-6 can go on for 25+ years on just one set of rulebooks shared amongst them, and what could--and should--be done about this issue.

Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerOne of the things that would be useful to talk about is the issue of about RPGs being something where a group of 4-6 can go on for 25+ years on just one set of rulebooks shared amongst them, and what could--and should--be done about this issue.

I don't think you can do anything about that, and I think that any attempts to will result in such carnage as the world has never known.

Look how well it went with WW even suggesting that Camarilla membership be required to play the new edition of MET.

Any attempts to try and milk the market more will just piss people off because it's going to be blatantly transparent for what is is:  a cash grab.

Quote from: Consonant DudeAs for Margaret Weis production, I suspect Firefly/BSG will lead them straight where Decipher went: to the curb. They are doing an awful job with those licenses. LotR also sold very well but has not had lasting impact.

Oh I agree but the problem that MWP has is that they don't know it yet.  I think that frankly, they really don't know what Serenity fans were like, and even they were taken by surprise by the success of that book.  But, they STILL don't know what the Serenity fans are like (as in, the most massive kind of drooling buy-anything-with-the-license fanboys), so they are now under the mistaken impression that:

a) Serenity was a success because it was a well-written game. FALSE.

b) People have "discovered" and now like the Sovereign Stone system. FALSE.

c) using the exact same methods they've used for Serenity will work for BSG and other products. Almost certainly also false.

RPGPundit

Quote from: Bradford C. WalkerOne of the things that would be useful to talk about is the issue of about RPGs being something where a group of 4-6 can go on for 25+ years on just one set of rulebooks shared amongst them, and what could--and should--be done about this issue.

Abso-fucking-lutely nothing should be done about it.  Technically, you only need one game of Monopoly for your whole life. Or one chess set.

That fact doesn't stop monopoly sales, nor does it mean that if someone buys a chess set, that is now the only chess set (much less the only GAME, period) they will ever own.

Trying to create some kind of "forced buy-in" program like the way story-based games did with their metaplot (where you always "HAD" to buy the next product if you wanted to find out the "real" secret of x in the book you'd just bought, otherwise you were out of luck) is a totally counterproductive move that will lead to people deciding they have better things to do with their money.

Those isolated colonies of gamers who haven't bought anything in 20 years are rarer than the urban myths would suggest. Most people either quit gaming altogether, or they will still, albeit infrequently, keep buying stuff because if you're into RPGs you will always see new and shiny things coming out that attract your attention.

RPGPundit

Quote from: J ArcaneI don't think you can do anything about that, and I think that any attempts to will result in such carnage as the world has never known.

How about changing the way that RPG publishers design and sell tabletop RPGs to conform to this fact?  That would work, and there would be no carnage- save for the slaughter of publishers.

QuoteLook how well it went with WW even suggesting that people should have to get Camarilla membership be required to play the new edition of MET.

Any attempts to try and milk the market more will just piss people off because it's going to be blatantly transparent for what is is:  a cash grab.

That's not the only way to go.  Embracing the capital good quality of tabletop RPGs is an option.

QuoteEmbracing the capital good quality of tabletop RPGs is an option.

I don't understand what this sentence means.  Could you rephrase?

Otherwise, I think you are overstating the issue, for the reasons Pundit pointed out.

I can see one possible business model, in the form of a subscription-based service, but I think it would ultimately be more costly than profitable because of the need to constantly crank out content and new revisions in order to justify a subscription model.  

And I think it would also face far too much competition from normal games, where you can just go buy a book and play, and buy more of you want more stuff.