Quote from: JimBobOzZOMFG DOOM!!!1!!!1!

I think mearls was engaging in hyperbole, much as you've done here.

Quote from: JimBobOzMy local game store closed, therefore the industry is doomed! There was also this jeans shop that closed, therefore the jeans industry is doomed!

:confused:

I'm used to better refuttals by you. It's not about local jeans shop closing. It's about the big picture of the overall health of the jeans industry.

PS: Nobody says making a James Bond movie is a money-wasting enterprise. I thought you would figure out that the movie industry can't live exclusively on a couple of remakes and franchises.

Quote from: ColonelHardissonI'm just not getting that from the link you gave. It seems more that he has nothing but contempt for self-important, pretentious game designers. And no, this isn't some passive-aggressive dig at you.

I would never accuse anyone of "passive-aggression," I promise you this. From Mearls' comments, I get that he has contempt for the game ideas coming out, and that means contempt for anyone who buys them; since gamers buy them, that means contempt for gamers in general. It's quite common for people in business to develop contempt for their customers. It's not something restricted to people in roleplaying game companies. The customers are thought of as uncultured, ignorant, stupid, greedy, indiscriminating and fussy all in one.

Quote from: ColonelHardissonAs for Dancey...well, his analyses are interesting to read, but eventually seem to get to a point where they make my eyes cross with all the financial prognostication.

It's dodgy stuff. He can't even be bothered looking in the phone book to find out how many game stores there are, going on this vague figure of "1,000 to 1,500." That's equivalent to me saying, "I think I'm going to grow taller this year. My height is between 5' and 7'6". I'll tell you next year if I've grown taller, but I'm sure I will." To talk seriously about where you're going, you have to know where you are. Just consider - a 10% decline in sales overall - which would be considered a horrendous decline in any other industry - that's 100-150 stores' worth - it wouldn't even register within his range of numbers, anymore than me growing or dropping 6"-9" in height would register in that 5' to 7'6" range.

The simple truth is that Ryan Dancey has no more idea than anyone else of what the fuck is going on. Sure, some retailers are complaining, but that's the nature of people in business, they always complain about hard times. Not enough sales, too much paperwork, too much taxes, customers are unappreciative, times are hard, it's never been this difficult before, etc. Everyone in business says that shit. Sometimes it's true, usually not.

Quote from: JimBobOzThe simple truth is that Ryan Dancey has no more idea than anyone else of what the fuck is going on. Sure, some retailers are complaining, but that's the nature of people in business, they always complain about hard times. Not enough sales, too much paperwork, too much taxes, customers are unappreciative, times are hard, it's never been this difficult before, etc. Everyone in business says that shit. Sometimes it's true, usually not.

What Ryan is saying echoes what I've been seeing in Comics and Games Retailer.

Keep in mind "the hobby" and "the industry" are not the same thing.

Quote from: Consonant DudeI'm used to better refuttals by you. It's not about local jeans shop closing. It's about the big picture of the overall health of the jeans industry.

I match the level of my arguments to the level of the challenge. His piece is so full of holes you couldn't use it for fishing whales. You're a better arguer than him, so now I must raise my level.

The big picture, you don't get from one jeans shop owner, or from some former jeans manufacturer who says, "well, there used to be 3,000-5,000 jeans stores, now there are 1,000 to 1,500," but who doesn't mention all the jeans sold in general clothing stores, or department stores - that guy is just making shit up, really he has no clue about the overall health of the jeans industry.

Quote from: Consonant DudePS: Nobody says making a James Bond movie is a money-wasting enterprise. I thought you would figure out that the movie industry can't live exclusively on a couple of remakes and franchises.

Of course not, but those remakes and franchises actually provide a good chunk of the profits.

Amongst novels, only 10% of new releases each year make enough profit to even pay the writer's advance, and the printing and distribution fees. The other 90% of flops are subsidised by the 10% of bestsellers. The publishing house, for each one Tom Clancy they have, they keep nine new people going. A person who enjoys one of those nine other authours, and hates Tom Clancy, when they see that authour disappear, will say, "oh no, the publishing industry is in trouble! They can't keep going forever just on Tom Clancy books!"

The film industry is much the same, a few great successes subsidise the rest which are flops. Eventually one of the others is a big success, and that goes on to subsidise other stuff, while the old one dies away.

I don't see why we'd expect rpgs to be any different.

Quote from: JimBobOzThe big picture, you don't get from one jeans shop owner, or from some former jeans manufacturer who says, "well, there used to be 3,000-5,000 jeans stores, now there are 1,000 to 1,500," but who doesn't mention all the jeans sold in general clothing stores, or department stores - that guy is just making shit up, really he has no clue about the overall health of the jeans industry.

I can't deny that there is probably a good deal of speculation but I can't help but think that it's probably closer to the truth than one might think. You do have to take into account that the roleplaying industry is spectacularly disorganized, unprofessional and secretive. Stores open all the time and close even more often.

Ryan Dancey kisses a lot of ass and I am confident that he does have more sources than either of us. 100% reliable, accurate sources? Nobody currently has that. It's a way too small (and again, disorganized) industry to even bother getting scientific about it.  

Quote from: JimBobOzOf course not, but those remakes and franchises actually provide a good chunk of the profits.

Amongst novels, only 10% of new releases each year make enough profit to even pay the writer's advance, and the printing and distribution fees. The other 90% of flops are subsidised by the 10% of bestsellers. The publishing house, for each one Tom Clancy they have, they keep nine new people going. A person who enjoys one of those nine other authours, and hates Tom Clancy, when they see that authour disappear, will say, "oh no, the publishing industry is in trouble! They can't keep going forever just on Tom Clancy books!"

The film industry is much the same, a few great successes subsidise the rest which are flops. Eventually one of the others is a big success, and that goes on to subsidise other stuff, while the old one dies away.

I don't see why we'd expect rpgs to be any different.

You won't get much argument from me. We both seem to agree that there will be a lot of flops and unprofitable ventures. My problem is that, outside the ridiculously small timers, there aren't enough new ventures and none of them appears to have any lasting appeal anymore.

In fact, with the exception of Vampire, the 70s/80s games have completely outlasted and downright killed the 90s and early 00s games. There's virtually nothing left of all those games Dream Pod 9, Atlas games and so many others put out. They're cancelled lines with vocal but very minor appeal.

The game industry needs new "Vampire" hits (I'm not talking about a similar game, I'm talking in terms of success and impact). Games and lines that stay and climb in the top sellers for the long run and preferably bring new segments of gamers.

I'm like you, a very happy gamer. I am likely going to game until I am senile. I'll probably be wearing diapers while asking my players to throw some dice  But I just disagree with you that things are fine. I think the hobby is decline from every semi-reliable sources I get as well as from several accounts of anecdotal evidence, including my own. Just because I don't have a problem finding gamers and still have a store doesn't mean it's not happening.

I'm open to the possibility I might be wrong. I doubt it but I can't be *positive* that this industry is dying. However, I am extremely skeptical that anybody can just brush this off as doomsaying in complete objectivity.

As always, it's a pleasure debating with you, man!

In 2000, Heather Grove wrote about promotion of roleplaying, and,

Quote from: Heather GroveWhile I can't find it in me to buy into every "the industry is dying!" scare, it's true that the roleplaying game (RPG) industry is comparatively small, and there are lots of enthusiastic people with great ideas trying to get into it. So maybe the hobby does need some promotion.

From November 1996, courtesy rpg.net

Quote from: Sandy AtunesHello. This month we are presented with the idea that the industry is dying, the industry is thriving, the hobby is fading, and the hobby couldn't care less about the status of the industry. Which means, of course, rumors galore!

[...] another interesting point-- many of the larger companies are having hard times, while many smaller companies are prospering. (Realize we're entering serious "rumor only" territory for much of this). Now, as a caveat, success must be defined differently for each. For products of equal quality, a print run that keeps Event Horizon Productions in business would hardly sustain a TSR title, just because of the expectations and the costs and overhead associated. Also, small companies are used to running leaner, and working more unbillable hours to produce their excellent publications.

That said, rumor has it that West End is closing down all of their non-Star Wars lines temporarily, until they can afford otherwise. Hero Games, after their ill-received "books on disk" effort, is now beset by rumors of doom and shutdown. At the same time, though, their RTG "Fuzion" collaboration seems to be chugging along (after the Logo complains were resolved, or at least actively disavowed by Hero). So expect chaos for those who are actually involved in writing and producing materials, but little outward sign of change.

On the plus side, Pinnacle has been noisily happy of the success of "Deadlands" (which I must add, is a very cool work). Their post on Usenet mentioned they're nearly sold out, about 6 months earlier than expected. Imperium Games's launch of the new Traveller is off to a shaky-yet-strong start, including licensed products to be made by Gold Rush Games. So the second- and third-tier outfits seem to be optimistic. It's this optimism, I think, that will keep both the hobby and the industry alive.

Like it or not, the hobby and the industry are connected. Tracking the large companies lets you know how well the industry is doing, relative to the world at large. But looking at the success of the smaller companies is a good measure of how well the hobby is doing, and how varied we can get.[...] [my emhasis]

Ten years ago, some companies were successful, others were failing, and some people were saying the industry was dying.

That's capitalism in a free market economy - there are ups and downs, and no-one really knows if there's a general trend upwards or downwards.

I've also bolded some important words there - "rumour only". Roleplayers are people who like to tell exciting stories. That includes roleplaying game designers. "The industry is dying!" is exciting. "The industry is thriving!" is exciting, but less dramatic and will get less response. "The industry is having some ups and downs, probably is doing overall same as ever, but really we don't know," is not at all exciting, and won't get anyone much response. As a roleplayer, even a crap one who can only manage twenty minutes of fun in four hours, Dancey will quite naturally select the stuff, consciously or unconsciously, which helps him tell an exciting and dramatic story.

This post brought to you by the roleplaying game industry, dying since 1974.

Quote from: JimBobOzThat's capitalism in a free market economy - there are ups and downs, and no-one really knows if there's a general trend upwards or downwards.

Well... except for economists, accountants, business people, etc.

Random guys on the internet, like you and me, probably not.

That's why when I'm trying to figure out what's going on and plan my small business strategy I listen more closely to sources like Comics & Games Retailer, and industry insiders like Mearls, Dancey, Cook, etc rather than the general fan-based rumour-mill online.

Quote from: JimBobOzFrom November 1996, courtesy rpg.net

Ten years ago, some companies were successful, others were failing, and some people were saying the industry was dying.

Holy shit... I'm old!

I remember reading this around 1998. I do believe it was founded. The industry was indeed showing signs of decline. It really started accelerating between 98-01.

1996 was the CCG scare, I believe. They had gained popularity through "Magic" for 2-3 years. Where people (wrongly) believed CCGs were the sole entity responsible for the decline of RPGs. Incompetents like to point out at one single thing as being responsible for RPGs' struggles when in fact, there is a variety of factors led by the industry's own ineptitude to take proper action.

Quote from: jgbrowningFor what it's worth, Wizkids have just announced they're going exclusive with Alliance Distribution. This may result in a decrease in profit for other distributors, from what I'm picking up on industry chit-chat. It could merely be a blip or it could be the precourser to distribution consolidation.

joe b.

Welcome to RPGNet's evil twin.

I suspect the hobby gaming business would do tons better if it applied the same inventory practices other industries do. And they engaged in transparency. Let people know how your store is doing. For one, it is their business. For another, seeing how well you're doing will give them confidence you're going to be around.

In short, never trust a store that won't tell you how they're doing. Only failures have anything to hide.

Really, what distributors should be asking of their clients is accountability. A store refuses to be accountable, you don't distribute to that store.

Quote from: Consonant DudeRyan Dancey kisses a lot of ass and I am confident that he does have more sources than either of us.

Well, he did read the GAMA board members' emails to their GAMA board list without their consent for a while, in preparation for getting himself elected to their board. Search around, you can find talk of that. I'd think people would be more careful around him now as a result of that.

Quote from: Consonant DudeYou won't get much argument from me. We both seem to agree that there will be a lot of flops and unprofitable ventures.

This is nothing new. I remember Aussie games, for example, Rus and Hunter Planet. John Kim's Bigass List of Games lists 1,101 different rpgs released since before 1975 (the 600+ free rpgs are listed separately, and the for-profit pdfs largely aren't listed at all). Obviously they can't all be stunning successes.

Quote from: Consonant DudeMy problem is that, outside the ridiculously small timers, there aren't enough new ventures and none of them appears to have any lasting appeal anymore.

Now you're talking about "appeal". A moment ago you were talking about commercial success which would keep the company printing more stuff. Those are different things. I have here on my desk Unknown Armies. From a zip around the web, you can see it definitely has "lasting appeal", many people are playing it and discussing it. But it's a discontinued line - didn't make enough money for Atlas Games to bother with. So was that a success, or not?

How about Classic Traveller? That has lasting appeal, no doubt, people still play and discuss it, and it got reprinted recently. If we'd talked about it in 1987, you might have said it was a flop, because it hadn't been printed for several years; now we'd have to say it's a success, has "lasting appeal", and is commercially successful.

If you're going to talk about "successful", you have to decide what you mean. Do you mean "commercially successful enough to keep it in print", or do you mean "lasting appeal"?

Let's assume you mean the first one. Looking through John Kim's list of rpgs year by year... a casual glance tells me you're wrong. In the first ten years, there are about 140 original games released, and 10 of them remain around to this day. It's 191 games in all, but lots of them were different editions of basically the same thing, like Basic and Expert D&D and AD&D, Cthulhu or Runequest different editions, etc. Then in 1996, 29 different rpgs had 1st editions released; 5 or 6 of these remain with us today. In 2000, 36 first edition games were released (not counting the Star Wars "first edition"; that particular game might be new, but the franchise ain't), about 8 of these remain in print (rough estimate, since 10 of the 36 aren't in English, so aren't distributed where I am).

When I was at uni, I had some fellow students comment that poetry seemed to be better in the 19th century, just more worthwhile stuff was published. I said, "no, just as much crap was published as today, but only the good stuff survived 100 years to be read by us." I don't think rpgs are any different.

Take for example 1982,

    Alma Mater, 1st ed by Steve Davis, Andrew Warden (1982) Oracle Games
Behind Enemy Lines, 1st ed by William H. Keith, Jr., Jordan Weisman, Ross Babcock, Eric Turn, Steve Turn (1982) FASA
Bifrost, Bifrost ed by K. White, K. Minear, S. Johnson, G. Highley (1982) Skytrex Ltd.
Bunnies and Burrows, 2nd ed (1982)
Cassiopean Empire, 1st ed by Raymond Norton (1982) Norton Games
Champions, 2nd ed (1982)
Daredevils, 1st ed by Bob Charrette, Paul Hume (1982) FGU
Dawn Patrol, 1st ed by Mike Carr et al. (1982) TSR
Dragon Warriors, 1st ed by Dave Morris, Oliver Johnson (1982) Corgi Books
Drakar Och Demoner, 1st ed (1982) Aventyrspel
Element Masters, 1st ed by Kenneth Burridge, Robert Finkbeiner, Kevin Nelson, Brian Pettitt (1982) Escape Ventures
Fantasy Wargaming, 1st ed by Bruce Galloway, Mike Hodson-Smith, Nick Lowe, Bruce Quarrie, Paul Sturman (1982) Stein and Day
Field Guide to Encounters, 1st ed (1982) Judges Guild
FTL:2448, 1st ed by Richard Tucholka (1982) Tri-Tac Games
Gangbusters, 1st ed by Mark Acres, Rick Krebs, Tom Moldvay (1982) TSR
Inner City, 1st ed by Chris Clark (1982) Inner City
KABAL, 2nd ed (1982)
Man, Myth, and Magic, 1st ed by Herbie Brennan (1982) Yaquinto
M.I.S.S.I.O.N., 1st ed by Ernest T. Hams (1982) Kabal Gaming Systems
Neighborhood, 1st ed (1982) Wheaton Publications
Phase VII, 1st ed by Dennis Drew II (1982) Cheshire Games
Pirates and Plunder, 1st ed by Michael S. Matheny (1982) Yaquinto
Recon, 1st ed by Joe F. Martin (1982) RPG Inc.
Second Dawn, 1st ed by Art Wiederhold, George J. Herget (1982) Arrose Enterprises
Simulacron I, 1st ed by Mark Manning (1982) Simulacron I
Space Infantry, 1st ed by Daniel Douglas Hutto, Roger Allen Esnard (1982) D&R Game Design
Starfleet Voyages, 1st ed by Michael Scott (1982) Terra Games
Star Frontiers, 1st ed by "TSR Staff" (1982) TSR
Starleader: Assault, 1st ed by Howard Thompson (1982) Metagaming
Star Patrol, 2nd ed (1982)
Star Trek, 1st ed by Guy W. McLimore, Greg Poehlein, David Tepool (1982) FASA
Supergame, 2nd ed by Jay Hartlove, Aimee Hartlove (1982)
Supervillians 1st ed by Rick Register, R. Vance Buck, Allen D. Eldridge (1982) Task Force Games
Swordbearer, 1st ed by Arnold Hendrick, Dennis Sustare (1982) Heritage Models
Taste My Steel, 1st ed by Don Johnson (1982) Phantasy Network
Timeship, 1st ed by Herbie Brennan (1982) Yaquinto
To Challenge Tomorrow, 1st ed by Dave Nalle (1982) Ragnarok Press
Universe, 2nd ed (1982) SPI / Bantam Books
Villians and Vigilantes, 2nd ed (1982)
Worlds of Wonder, 1st ed by Steve Perrin, Steve Henderson, Gordon Monson, Greg Stafford, Lynn Willis (1982) Chaosium
Ysgarth, 3rd ed (1982)
Ysgarth, 4th ed (1982)

Of all those games, only Champions and Villains and Vigilantes survive in any form (HERO system). Star Trek is published with a different system; the Star trek franchise survived, FASA and that game did not. Star Frontiers is fairly widely-known and remembered in the same sort of way that Red Box Basic Set D&D is.

But you're only remembering the ones which survived. So then you're saying, "Well, look! Only three games were published, and all three are still with us! But nowadays, forty get published, and only four survive! Oh no! Everyone's sticking with the old stuff!" Well, no. It's just that you've forgotten just how many games went kaput in the old days, the same way my fellow students forgot how many bad poets there were in the 19th century.

There have always been lots of games published, and it has always happened that lots of them flopped. With so many things published, people will tend to go for what they know well. That's why McD's does so well - if you try some other restaurant, you might get heaps better stuff, you might get crap, it's a gamble. Try McDs, okay it's crud, but it's predictable, you know what you're getting. So in a strange city, you go for that.

Being an established name in an industry is well-known to assist sales; it's not restricted to roleplaying. Nor is it a sign that particular industry is dying. Still, it's remarkable just how many new names do in fact achieve lasting commercial success.

Quote from: Consonant DudeI just disagree with you that things are fine. I think the hobby is decline from every semi-reliable sources I get as well as from several accounts of anecdotal evidence, including my own.

I didn't say that things are fine. I said we don't know if they're fine or crap, and that people have often said the industry is dying, yet it's still here.

If I go to the doctor and he tells me I'm dying, then ten years later I'm still around, then when he gives me another diagnosis of imminent death, I'll be sceptical. Sure, eventually I'll die and he'll be right - but I'm going to be sceptical of his ability to predict just when I'm going to drop off.

One day, the roleplaying game industry will drop dead. Is that day soon? I doubt it. People have been saying it'd happen soon for a quarter of a century now. Yes, that's right - the death of the roleplaying industry has been predicted for a majority of its life, for at least 25 of 33 years.

Quote from: StuartWell... except for economists, accountants, business people, etc

Yes, they know very well what's happening. That's why big companies like Enron never collapse, because business people are always right. They are so much smarter than us!

Quote from: StuartThat's why when I'm trying to figure out what's going on and plan my small business strategy I listen more closely to sources like Comics & Games Retailer, and industry insiders like Mearls, Dancey, Cook, etc rather than the general fan-based rumour-mill online.

People will in general tend to overstate how much of an "insider" they are. This is especially true when a person is no longer with a company.

Don't you have farmers in your country? If you do, you should be familiar with people whose sales and income increase every year, complaining that they're nealry bankrupt, and times are hard.

QuoteYou won't get much argument from me. We both seem to agree that there will be a lot of flops and unprofitable ventures. My problem is that, outside the ridiculously small timers, there aren't enough new ventures and none of them appears to have any lasting appeal anymore.

Bullshit.  New players come all the time, old players go out.

Games Workshop had ruled the minatures market with an iron fist for over a decade.  

Now we have Privateer Press doing so well as to threaten the supposedly unbeatable GW empire, and their starter kits are showing up in Barnes & Noble stores even in backwaters like Bend Oregon.  

Mongoose Publishing didn't even exist 7 years ago, now it's goddamn huge enough to have managed to purchase some big licenses, and keep them supported.  

The industry runs as it always runs:  D&D on top, everyone else scrabbling for the rest, with a lot of ups and downs between them.  

In my own hometown, one of the game stores started dropping RPGs, then closed, only to have one of the comic stores pick up the RPG slack and start selling them better than even the game shop had for the last 5 years.

Just because some dipshit's game fails doesn't mean the entire industry is failing, it means no one wanted to buy the damn game.  I think there's a lot of this sort of nonsense that basically exists to insulate game designers and shop owners from their own egos.  

QuoteSomething that people are going to realize very soon is that the backbone of this hobby right now is nostalgia. It's the guys who started roleplaying in the 70s and 80s before the explosion of other media.

Every member of my group, including myself, wasn't even born until the 80s.  

The entire RPG scene in this town is quite young, generally all around my age of 25.  The one D&Der I knew who was notably older was still only in his early 30s, and the rest of his group were all younger folks.  

Some "nostalgia" market.

The demographics released for RPGnet suggested that most of the gamers fell into about that age range, but with the overall range as young as 16 and as old as 60.  There's a lot of different people in the hobby.

Obviously of course, this is just one town, one scene.  Not even a very big town.  I don't intend to generalize about the entire hobby's age, only to put out that your assumptions are not necessarily the case.  And to suggest that it's no more sensible for you to make those kinds of generalizations.

Quote from: J ArcaneBullshit.  New players come all the time, old players go out.

Well, they certainly aren't coming at the same pace they used to. Most of the big games coming out squarely targets gamers in their 20s and 30s and up. There are a lot less games that talk to a younger audience.

I'm not the only one saying it. A lot of industry people actually think this and market according to this. Why do you think we went from thin booklet games and settings such as Lankhmar, D&D, Gamma World, Greyhawk, Forgotten realms to 300  pounds atrocities and "deluxe editions" filled with 3rd grade fiction?

A lot of second tier publishers went that route because they gave up on creating gamers and decided to milk gamers for as long as they could before going belly up. Now, many of them are either dead or branching out to other hobbies and giving up on roleplaying games (Atlas, GoO, DP9, Decipher, etc...) Even those who are still pumping out some significant products are prioritizing other hobbies such as CCGs, wargames, boardgames. Steve Jackson's GURPS is slowing down markedly starting in 2007. FFG will pretty soon neglect RPGs completely I fear. Eden has been in a slumber for a while and it's getting worse and worse.

Barring a turn of event, the future will probably be 6-7 main companies (all ancient or having ancient licenses with the exception of Mongoose) and a lot of indie guys selling 300 copies of Those Games Nobody Wants To Play. In effect, no more (or at least much fewer) 2nd tier RPG companies.

At least, that's what I suspect is going to happen. Will be glad if I am wrong but either way, I know I'll keep on gaming happily.

QuoteWell, they certainly aren't coming at the same pace they used to.

Bull goddamn shit.  With the explosions in digital distribution, small press, and print-on-demand there have been in the last half decade more new games coming out than there were in the whole ten years prior to that.

RPGnow alone puts out hundred of new products a year.

Those examples I just pointed out were just that, examples.  Not the whole of all the successes of the industry.  Just off the top of my head Sovereign Stone Press is another that comes to mind.

Most of them fail.  Some even fail to sell a single copy.  Others manage to carve out their niche, just as so many RPG producers have in the past.

Come on, I barely keep up with this shit anymore and I know these things.  You have to be seriously out of touch to believe the shit you're spouting.  Either that or you just really, really want to believe your own hobby is dying.

I'm just curious as to why.  Did your game fail?  Your store close down?  Or are you one of those "Last of the Mohicans" types enamored of the fantasy of being the last of a dying breed?

Quote from: JimBobOzNow you're talking about "appeal". A moment ago you were talking about commercial success which would keep the company printing more stuff. Those are different things.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I am concerned about great games that have a strong fanbase that is ready, willing and able to buy new stuff.

As for the rest of your argument: yeah, I am aware that a LOT of games were released and died, along with a lot of companies. What I am seeing less since Vampire are brands and companies actually having a real impact.

I think it's dwindling down. You've got Mongoose. That one has been very business-savvy although they have yet to develop their own RPG products. They are totally riding on various licenses (D20, OGL, Runequest, Conan, Lankhmar, etc...). Even so, it's early. I'm going to wait two more years in their case.

Maybe an argument can be made for PEG and a few others but they seem always on the edge.

What we are seeing is always the same brands and companies. White Wolf, WotC, Palladium, Warhammer, D&D, CoC, etc...

Sure, companies were dying all the time back in the days... but some were emerging as leaders every once in a while. Why are we seeing less of that? Product lines are getting shorter and shorter too.

It doesn't look good from where I sit.