Quote from: RPGPundit3. You are speculating not just about a "what if" but about something we KNOW will NEVER BE (ie a near-future release of D&D4).
RPGPundit

You got me there. You are right. It will likely never happen.

But that wasn't really the point of me asking that question.

I will re-state, PRETEND that this fall after a marketing campaign starting this summer WoTC released D&D 4.0. And it is a undeniably crappy game. And by this time next year Hasbro throttles the money for D&D 4. Thereby giving WoTC less flexibility to fix or change D&D 4 i.e Wizard is stuck with their turkey for the time being.

Now I am not debating whether it is probable or likely. It isn't. I am not debating whether it going to happen at all. It most likely not going too. But that not the point of posing a what-if.

The fact is I said this fall is not an important condition of the what-if. It could be this fall, summer 08 or even 09. The other two conditions (bad game, no money) are.

a) if the game anything other than bad. D&D wins by the network effect alone.
b) If Hasbro doesn't pull the money then the game will get fixed in a short order or a D&D 5 will emerge and we are back to the above (a).

Quote from: jrientsIn my opinion if D&D 4.0 is the worst game ever made the number 1 RPG will be D&D 3.5, even out of print.  The only thing that might have a chance of unseating it would be a lookalike like a new, less jokey edition of HackMaster or a more tricked out update of C&C.

I basically agree with your opinion. With the presence of the D20 and the OGL any successor RPG will be D20 or one of its variants.

However the darkside will be that the market will fragment and amount of new gamers entering the market will plumment and then later recover.

Quote from: RPGPundit2. D&D will continue to dominate the market no matter how badly certain people would wish it were not so.

Why?

This is the point of the whole discussion.

But before you give your answer. I didn't pose my question in the form of "Why D&D is so dominant" Because I would get a list of answers and then debate over those answers.

By posing it as a what-if. People answer in the form of list of a series of events. X then Y, and then Z will happen. Then we debate whether those events are possible or not. (doesn't have to be probable). If the event is impossible then everything beyond that is impossible.

That the basis of using a what-if to understand something.

What would it take for a crappy version of D&D to sink itself?

Well, I agree with Maw. It would have to be so bad that the network the game has managed to create rebels against it. It would be so bad that not only people online, but people in their own little groups hate it. The game would have to be a poison meme that spreads from group to group until they eschew the new game for something else. My guess would be they'd just go back to their favorite previous version of D&D, but anything is possible. I guess then it wouldn't be the total demise of D&D as a franchise, but it would still be a negative

Oh and Jrients?

Quotea more tricked out update of C&C

AC&C!? :eek:

Quote from: JamesVOh and Jrients?

AC&C!? :eek:

If I owned the franchise and 4E tanked I'd publish it in a heartbeat.

Quote from: jrientsIn my opinion if D&D 4.0 is the worst game ever made the number 1 RPG will be D&D 3.5, even out of print.  

This is precisely what happened with 2E in many instances. People didn't go looking for another game to buy, they already owned it- 1E.
Personally I hate 1e and pretty much always have, but that didn't stop me from playing it for ten years*.


* I was young and it was the only game in town.

Quote from: RPGPundit3. You are speculating not just about a "what if" but about something we KNOW will NEVER BE (ie a near-future release of D&D4).

We KNOW we'll never shoot fireballs out of our hands, still every saturday we pretend we do. What's wrong with some pretending? I know this is totally idiotic, but I just HAD to post it.

Now, for the main theme, I think that IF 4th blows, TSR will just press harder and harder on the miniatures stuff, relegating the TTRPG rulebooks to a (even more) second plane and releasing (even more) various sucky settings to go with them. We'll keep on playing 3.x, 2ed. and OD&D, there are enough books in stock to feed the markets for some time, and in computer age something being "out of print" won't stop you. Check Amber. People already playing it  will keep on playing it. The market will cover the void, but a lot of potential players will be lost, and that's what sucks. The real damage would show five to ten years from here, when we look around our tables and see only balding middle-aged fatties. Not that we don't get enough these days.

Quote from: SunBoyNow, for the main theme, I think that IF 4th blows, TSR will just press harder and harder on the miniatures stuff...

You can tell the folks who have an axe to grind by their attention to detail and accuracy. TSR, huh? Couldn't go for that extra letter?

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiYou can tell the folks who have an axe to grind by their attention to detail and accuracy. TSR, huh? Couldn't go for that extra letter?

Seanchai

If he was a TSR hater from way back he'd have spelt it T$R, which some folk never cease to think is a new and clever twist.

TSR is probably just a mistake isn't it?

Quote from: SeanchaiYou can tell the folks who have an axe to grind by their attention to detail and accuracy. TSR, huh? Couldn't go for that extra letter?

Seanchai

Irony.

First thing to consider is that D&D 3.5 is the top selling game on the market, so why a 4th edition?
I mean would you risk the 1st place on the industry by releasing a completely new game, that doesn't seem like something a succesfull company would do.
That's why if D&D 4th were to be released next fall, it would be closer to a 3.5 spin off than to a completely new game.
I don't know how the market will behave from here to 2k9, but in my opinion unless WoTC sells falls a lot we won't see a NEW D&D as 3.0 was back in 2000.
And if in that case 4e fails miserably, then it would only be the coup de grace to a dying giant.

Quote from: UmaSamaFirst thing to consider is that D&D 3.5 is the top selling game on the market, so why a 4th edition?
I mean would you risk the 1st place on the industry by releasing a completely new game, that doesn't seem like something a succesfull company would do.

Some companies are really stupid.  Take for example Sony and Everquest 2.

I doubt it would be a stupid move. you wouldn't buy it maybe, and I sure as hell wouldn't, but one thing our hobby is full of is crazy ass completists. they have to have everything with the brand on it. Then there are people who just can't stomach the idea of playing an "outdated" game. 4th edition would make a shitton of money, and that's before all the new suplliments and monster books and adventures. Selling the same people what amounts to the same product many times over is what it's all about. they can't make any money off the books you already own, after all.

Quote from: SeanchaiYou can tell the folks who have an axe to grind by their attention to detail and accuracy. TSR, huh? Couldn't go for that extra letter?

Seanchai

Force of habit. Wizards of the Coast, Hasbro, whatever. In my head, it's always TSR.
Great SN, BTW. Seanchai, irish storytellers, right?