I believe that for a RPG to dislodge D&D from the top position, it would have to include drastic changes in the way it is played and/or learned and/or presented. In such ways that it might not be considered an RPG anymore by many.

The end result of this situation is that D&D will most likely continue to be the top roleplaying game for a long time.

Quote from: Consonant DudeThe end result of this situation is that D&D will most likely continue to be the top roleplaying game for a long time.

Even if it goes out of print?

If D&D 4 is shitty, it will still not flop. D&D has fanboys just like Nintendo, and WW who are VERY loyal  ($200 dollar chessboard anyone?).  It would take D&D 4,5, and 6 being unplayably bad for them to lose the top spot and not sell.

However, if the Dungeons and Dragon's imprint went bad (ie everything D&D...minis, dragon hats, bumper stickers, childrens books etc.) I would expect Hasbro to license the imprint. Let White-Wolf (the only company with enough money for a D&D license) make it.


What would take the top spot. Probably the #2 game Vampire: the Requiem.
 Although it's numbers wouldn't change. If people quit playing D&D, there would be less RPG players overall.

Quote from: KrakaJakWhat would take the top spot. Probably the #2 game Vampire: the Requiem. Although it's numbers wouldn't change. If people quit playing D&D, there would be less RPG players overall.

You think the nWoD is doing that well? That hasn't been my impression from the slow collapse of their LARP society and the general lack of enthusiasm for the new edition.

Quote from: James McMurrayEven if it goes out of print?

Highly hypothetical but here are some random thoughts:

Forgetting the quality (or lack thereof, depending on who you ask) of D&D as a roleplaying game, there's a ton more value in the franchise in the shape of things such as minis and a huge line of crappy novels. This makes it highly unlikely that the game will be OOP anytime soon. This makes it in turn very difficult for anyone to make predictions, I believe.

The way I see it, if the game went OOP, it would be there is a total lack of interest except for a tiny minority, too small to be of any significance. Ensues further migration of talented writers toward video games, screenwriting, boardgames, novels, etc...

Ensues further migration of remaining people with some business acumen with better use of their time.

Ensues inferior gaming industry and less interest.

Ensues less roleplayers buying and playing games.

You're left with the actual publishers. Every current middleweight games goes a little up on the pie distribution, except it's a smaller pie. Things like GURPS, CoC, Hero, Exalted and the WoD lines. There's a fairly big gap to fill as far as fantasy games with the exception of Exalted. So I suppose someone makes a move if he's got the balls. Makes something similar to D&D. Probably using something similar to the last incarnation of D&D before its death as the core engine.

Quote from: KrakaJakIf D&D 4 is shitty, it will still not flop. D&D has fanboys just like Nintendo, and WW who are VERY loyal  ($200 dollar chessboard anyone?).  It would take D&D 4,5, and 6 being unplayably bad for them to lose the top spot and not sell.

I think just 4 and 5 could do it. 2e damn near did. But yeah, it'll take more than one botched major release (way, way beyond the tempest in a teapot that was 3.5).

P.S. If Nintendo would have totally pooched the Wii they could easily have gone the way of Sega/Dreamcast. Not even the fanbois could have saved them from dropping from the console hardware market.

Quote from: GRIMYou think the nWoD is doing that well? That hasn't been my impression from the slow collapse of their LARP society and the general lack of enthusiasm for the new edition.

I don't see the lack of enthusiasm... except on this messageboard :-) Everyone I play it with prefers it over just about any other system.

nWod is the only other RPG I see on store shelves.

Yeah, WW is the number two publisher with the #2 game. Do you see how many supplements that game gets? It's close to like 2 a month. Vampire: the Requiem corebook actually sells better than the WoD rulebook according to my stores distributer.

Quote from: blakkieP.S. If Nintendo would have totally pooched the Wii they could easily have gone the way of Sega/Dreamcast. Not even the fanbois could have saved them from dropping from the console hardware market.

Not even close. Nintendo's main moneymaker for a long time has been the GB/DS. As far as the GC goes, they still turned a profit being #3. Even though they sold twice as many XBOX's, Microsoft lost Millions.

Just like Hasbros big moneymaker is collectable cards/miniatures and videogame licenses. If D&D as tabletop goes sour, they still have the minis and the license. So "D&D" would still be around, just not in it's original format.

There will be no D&D 4.0 until AT LEAST 2009, so i think this kind of speculative gameplay is pretty disingenuous.

RPGpundit

Quote from: RPGPunditThere will be no D&D 4.0 until AT LEAST 2009, so i think this kind of speculative gameplay is pretty disingenuous.

RPGpundit

What-Ifs are useful because they can show what are the strengths and weaknesses of a situation. By looking at what possible and not possible to knock D&D off as the top seller you gain a better understanding what makes D&D what it is.

The use of D&D 4.0 is just a starting point to start discussion on the matter. I could have easily said.

What if in 2000, D&D 3.0 turned out to be a bad game by any standards. Monte Cook and his team wasn't placed in charge of D&D3.

But the problem with stating this is that at the time there was no OGL so it was a completely different market. So a 2000 what-if to understand D&D strengths and weaknesses is not really useful in my opinion.

If D&D 4.0 is a undeniably bad game and doesn't sell well. If Hasbro pulls major funding away from D&D in favor of other games so that Wizards has limited options to "fix" the problem.  What in your opinion are the possible outcomes and which is the more likely.

Rob Conley

Quote from: KrakaJakIf D&D 4 is shitty, it will still not flop. D&D has fanboys just like Nintendo, and WW who are VERY loyal  ($200 dollar chessboard anyone?).  It would take D&D 4,5, and 6 being unplayably bad for them to lose the top spot and not sell.

A undeniably bad D&D 4 will not fail to sell in its initial run. I don't that is even in the realm of reasonable possibility. However as word of mouth spread beyond the initial adopters sales will plummet and vast number of people will stick with 3.5. The fanboys are dwarfed by the ordinary run of the mill player. And the run of the mill player will make or break the line.

Hasbro gets the sales result in and see that this new line tanked badly in the past year and continue it at a reduced rate of funding (because there is some money in selling to fanboys) But unlike now D&D is hobbled in the range of products that can be printed. Leaving an opening for another publisher to try to fill the fantasy gaming market.

Quote from: KrakaJakNot even close. Nintendo's main moneymaker for a long time has been the GB/DS.

I wasn't counting the DS-lite as a 'console'. Sure they wouldn't drop all the hardware, and I think they could maintain the handhelds without owning the console. And yeah they were making money in 3rd place. But there is only so much lump sum lead-loss you can blow on hardware development before you realize you should just be making games (which is what they excel at). Which I think is why it was absolutely brilliant that they broke ranks and said "screw the lead-loss insanity".

But I think we are getting WTF off topic....

But this whole conversation would still, by default, have to be based on the assumption that D&D 4.0 would be released sometime soon, in this market more or less. And we already know that explicitly to be untrue, contrary to the doom-and-gloom intentionally subversive predictions of people like Chris Pramas, and basically in line with what I've been saying all along (that it makes no sense for Wizards to release a new edition of D&D at this time).

So to sum up:

1. I was right, the others were wrong. As usual.
2. D&D will continue to dominate the market no matter how badly certain people would wish it were not so.
3. You are speculating not just about a "what if" but about something we KNOW will NEVER BE (ie a near-future release of D&D4).

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPundit1. I was right, the others were wrong. As usual.
2. D&D will continue to dominate the market no matter how badly certain people would wish it were not so.
3. You are speculating not just about a "what if" but about something we KNOW will NEVER BE (ie a near-future release of D&D4).

1. Yes, you were right so far (and I believe on this issue you will continue to be so).

2. I am certain you are correct for the forseeable future.

3. 2009 is the near future.

In my opinion if D&D 4.0 is the worst game ever made the number 1 RPG will be D&D 3.5, even out of print.  The only thing that might have a chance of unseating it would be a lookalike like a new, less jokey edition of HackMaster or a more tricked out update of C&C.