Quote from: Thanlis;368802He wrote parts of two Shadowrun books.

Use Ctrl+F. I see now that my use of "3-4 dozens" was greatly exaggerated though. Sorry for the misinformation; I didn't spread this out of bad intent.

I love Boardgamegeek and Geekdo (not least for the most fair minded review of D&D 4E to date), but they aren't that exhaustive resources when it comes to RPGs.

Quote from: Windjammer;368838Use Ctrl+F. I see now that my use of "3-4 dozens" was greatly exaggerated though. Sorry for the misinformation; I didn't spread this out of bad intent.

Oh, I know. I'm not flaming, just noting. I find it's good to be cautious about Frank's statements of fact, because he can convince himself of stuff. There's another good one here:

QuoteIf you followed the D&D piracy case, then WotC pulling their pdfs didn't surprise you in the least. They reported in court that they had proof that the PHB2 was downloaded at least 1210 times. Scott Rouse also said in an interview that their lawyers said that they could conservatively say that there were more than 10 illegal downloads for every one lawful pdf purchase - which means their lawyers copped to there having been only 120 or less total .pdf sales of the PHB2. And that just doesn't seem worth doing for a major company like Hasbro, piracy or no.

So first off, look at the logic:

1. There were >1210 PHB2 illegal downloads.
2. For every legal purchase, there were >10 illegal downloads.
3. Thus, there were <120 legal purchases.

Hey, wait, he just reversed the arrow! If there were more than 1,210 illegal downloads, that means there were at least 120 legal purchases. Not fewer than. That's way too obvious for him to have done it on purpose, unless he's just screwing with people, so I figure he gets all wrapped up in his sense of purpose and forgets to be at all rigorous.

Also: the court documents said downloads from Scribd from one of the defendants was around 1,210. So that's partial downloads from one source, not a total. Further, the interview he's referring to wasn't Scott Rouse, it was Greg Leeds, and Greg wasn't benchmarking just Scribd downloads.

Frank's a pretty sloppy thinker, but he writes with a very rigorous, convincing tone.

I didn't take you to be flaming (to be honest, I don't even recall ever seeing you engage in the practice at all).

Quote from: Thanlis;368842look at the logic:

1. There were >1210 PHB2 illegal downloads.
2. For every legal purchase, there were >10 illegal downloads.
3. Thus, there were <120 legal purchases.

Hey, wait, he just reversed the arrow!

Actually, he didn't. Look at statement 2. It says that for every legal purchase there were at least 10 illegal downloads. Suppose we have an exact number of 1210 illlegal downloads. That means that the number of legal ones could at most be 120. In that vein, you parse it wrongly when you write "If there were more than 1,210 illegal downloads, that means there were at least 120 legal purchases." Not true. If there were 1300 illegal downloads, statement 2. could validate the claim that we'd still not be talking about more than 120 legal downloads.

The problem is that statement 1. leaves the actual number wide open. 20,000 is just as much "a higher number than 1210" as is 1215. And that's where Trollman's method to work out legal sales breaks down - statement 2. mandates that you have an actual figure, or at least a very narrow margon (e.g. 1300-1500). We don't. And that's why Trollman's case is misrepresentative - not because he reversed the arrows.

Personally I have my own conspiracy theory about the removal of WotC PDFs, which you can read here. Basically, the sales of 4E stuff they lost from the PDFs was much smaller than the competition with 4E they killed off by stopping to sell 3.5 PDFs (of Player's Handbook e.g.!). Overnight D&D 3.5 became a hyperexpensive collector's game - I saw it on Ebay - and the cost for getting new people into the game (3.5) is now prohibitive. Yeah, I know there's Pathfinder, but Pathfinder lacks the most ingredient to be serious competition for WotC - the D&D brand logo slapped onto the front cover.

Quote from: Windjammer;368845Actually, he didn't. Look at statement 2. It says that for every legal purchase there were at least 10 illegal downloads. Suppose we have an exact number of 1210 illlegal downloads. That means that the number of legal ones could at most be 120. In that vein, you parse it wrongly when you write "If there were more than 1,210 illegal downloads, that means there were at least 120 legal purchases." Not true. If there were 1300 illegal downloads, statement 2. could validate the claim that we'd still not be talking about more than 120 legal downloads.

The problem is that statement 1. leaves the actual number wide open. 20,000 is just as much "a higher number than 1210" as is 1215. And that's where Trollman's method to work out legal sales breaks down - statement 2. mandates that you have an actual figure, or at least a very narrow margon (e.g. 1300-1500). We don't. And that's why Trollman's case is misrepresentative - not because he reversed the arrows.

Oooh, you are correct on all counts. I plead sleepiness.

QuotePersonally I have my own conspiracy theory about the removal of WotC PDFs, which you can read here. Basically, the sales of 4E stuff they lost from the PDFs was much smaller than the competition with 4E they killed off by stopping to sell 3.5 PDFs (of Player's Handbook e.g.!). Overnight D&D 3.5 became a hyperexpensive collector's game - I saw it on Ebay - and the cost for getting new people into the game (3.5) is now prohibitive. Yeah, I know there's Pathfinder, but Pathfinder lacks the most ingredient to be serious competition for WotC - the D&D brand logo slapped onto the front cover.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if that were a big component of the decision. I have no trouble believing that someone acted irrationally about piracy -- obviously the decision hasn't slowed piracy down significantly. But I bet the 3.5 sales issue was also a factor.

Quote from: Thanlis;368842Frank's a pretty sloppy thinker, but he writes with a very rigorous, convincing tone.

Oh yeah. He and I have gone around at least once about his whackadoodle idea that DNI technology implies that brains are more easily hackable when they aren't hooked up to an IO device(a computer).

Which is roughly analogous to stating its easier to a calculator without buttons getting in the way.

It may be POSSIBLE but by no means should it be EASIER.


EDIT::: better analogy: he thinks its easier to remotely hack your computer if its not hooked up to the internet because then he doesn't have to deal with all that going through the servers or wires or something... and conversely if it IS hooked up to the internet it makes all hacking, even from the keyboard, much harder.

Quote from: Werekoala;368219Now, now - it happens EVERYWHERE, ALL THE TIME (especially at restaurants and RPG companies), and there is nothing that can be done about it, particularly by us. No need to even think twice about it. Just shrug and move on, it'll save a lot of needless and useless complaining. I don't even know why the OP posted the story.

With that in mind: I could use most of a million dollars. You know any game companies that are hiring right now?

Quote from: Garnfellow;367811All of the numbers quoted -- both dollars and print run numbers -- seem off by an order of magnitude, if not two orders of magnitude:


Their 2009 sales were really $2.125M. Really?

That was the biggest thing that stood out to me personally.

But given SJGames had about 3 mil in sales in 09 and they are basically the Munchkin Company now, is it really that hard to believe that between Shadowun and Battletech Catalyst couldn't do around 2?

Those are 2 massively long running games that have had gamer influxes through the years via lots of other media (books and videogames mostly) which kept them in the mindset more than SJG and their seeming inability to work with other media.

(Honestly if Fallout had kept the GURPS ruleset that game's playerbase would probably be 5-20% higher depending on if Fallout 3 still used it.  Fallout fans are REALLY fanatical.)

Hopefully Catalyst can survive all this though.  I can't say I really want or need much of their Battletech output, but its nice to know its there if I have some money burning a hole in my pocket.

And Shadowrun is STILL a great concept, even if most of the comments I hear about its ruleset put it in Palladium's category.

Quote from: Captain Rufus;368897Fallout fans are REALLY fanatical.)

.

You got a problem with that, Pumpkin?



Well, Do ya?!

Quote from: Spike;368973You got a problem with that, Pumpkin?



Well, Do ya?!

Yeah.  Cuz the Fallout fanbase pretty much is as embarrassing as the anime fanbase.  (Cept with less moe.  But more giant robots.)

Fallout 2 is one of my favorite RPGs of all time but the Fallout fanbase is so goddamned obnoxious and mean I tend to distance myself from them.

Picture J Arcane mixed with Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.  Except give him blue balls.

That's the Fallout fanbase.

Quote from: Captain Rufus;369104Picture J Arcane mixed with Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.  Except give him blue balls.

That's the Fallout fanbase.

LOL

Namedropping your betters still doesn't make you any less of an idiot, Bloodcat.

Quote from: Captain Rufus;368897But given SJGames had about 3 mil in sales in 09 and they are basically the Munchkin Company now, is it really that hard to believe that between Shadowun and Battletech Catalyst couldn't do around 2?

Those are 2 massively long running games that have had gamer influxes through the years via lots of other media (books and videogames mostly) which kept them in the mindset more than SJG and their seeming inability to work with other media.

(Honestly if Fallout had kept the GURPS ruleset that game's playerbase would probably be 5-20% higher depending on if Fallout 3 still used it.  Fallout fans are REALLY fanatical.)

Hopefully Catalyst can survive all this though.  I can't say I really want or need much of their Battletech output, but its nice to know its there if I have some money burning a hole in my pocket.

And Shadowrun is STILL a great concept, even if most of the comments I hear about its ruleset put it in Palladium's category.

no it's not the 2 mil figure that got my attention. We were in that same range with HackMaster in 2003 or so. it was the print volumes/cost per book that raised my eyebrow.

Quote from: JollyRB;369113no it's not the 2 mil figure that got my attention. We were in that same range with HackMaster in 2003 or so. it was the print volumes/cost per book that raised my eyebrow.

Could you expand on that answer?

Quote from: JollyRB;369113no it's not the 2 mil figure that got my attention. We were in that same range with HackMaster in 2003 or so. it was the print volumes/cost per book that raised my eyebrow.

3-5 dollars a book doesn't sound way out of line to me, but I'm not a publisher.  As for 50k print runs? Sure, I'll buy that for Shadowrun products, to be frank.  I bought SR4 in a chain bookstore in a podunk town while on layover between flights.  Its everywhere, and are stacked deep at the actual game stores. That requires volume.

Having seen lists of hobby stores (FLGS) before I can picture upwards of a thousand game stores in the country, that's five copies a store... believable numbers not even counting that Shadowrun has international markets.

As an insider can you point out where the numbers are a magnitude off?  

Er... not trying to pick you here, I'm honestly curious.  As an outsider it almost seems like they should be... um... bigger. Not counting that its divided into 'print runs' even.





Also: Nostalgia moment: I bought my first ever 'Street Samurai Catalog' way back around christmas time in the first edition.  I sure wish they'da kept that sort of book/format over the editions.  Having each wizbang doodad reduced down to a flavorless thumbnail paragraph and MAYBE a semi-anonymous sketch on the margin really sucks the magic from those wonderful toys...