Quote from: Ian AbsentiaWhy not his dad, or his brother?

True. His dad did caress my knee lovingly at dinner. And his brother has that Deliverance kind of look.

Seanchai

Quote from: J ArcaneNobody calls me a liar.

Nobody.

They don't have to. It's all there in your posts.

Seanchai

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb4e might or might not be a good game, but the fears of "MMOfication" and "CCGification" will continue unabated by a large number of people. I guarantee it.

A "large" number of people, huh? What's that, a few thousand?

Quote from: Sacrificial LambProbably correct, but the skeptics won't be long-term customers for 4e, and a game needs long-term customers to survive.

Really? Because WotC stayed afloat selling splatbook after splatbook to 3e skeptics.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambWhether or not those complaints about the MMO-ization of 4e are grounded in reality or not is irrelevant. The perception exists that 4e is transforming into an MMO, and that perception is all that counts.

I agree with you there, I just don't think it counts for much. Your side says folks are shying away from 4e for one reason or another, but it's already doing well on just pre-orders alone.

Seanchai

Quote from: SeanchaiTrue. His dad did caress my knee lovingly at dinner. And his brother has that Deliverance kind of look.

You neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too?

!i!

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaYou neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too?

!i!

Are you implying he might be a Bistromath sock puppet?

Oh, no, no.  Earlier I had admonished James for stereotyping Seanchai by suggesting that he'd only fuck a female member of your family.  I suggested that Seanchai might very well intend to fuck your father or brother, but also your dog or your under-aged niece.

While it's a distinctly distasteful topic to pursue, Seanchai seems to be expressing a broader interest in your family.  So, I guess it's topical to know whether or not he fucks dogs and children, too.

!i!

7. Some folks who have no objection to WotC marketing tactics and happly buy Draconomicran Vol. 8: Pseudodragons, will find out the Kool-aid was in fact, not lemon flavor!  

Actually I am one of the "hard line skeptics" but I also have played and like the rules of 4E.  For the record, I have NO problem at all with the rules-- it is a fun system, and I will probably play it one day.  But I will never buy it, because I object so strongly to wizards' marketing tactics (won't go into it here, don't want to derail things).  

As for the rest of the predictions I bet you'll be right.

Quote from: Ian AbsentiaYou neglected the other bits.  Do you molest dogs and children, too?

Definitely no children. But I did allow J Arcane's childhood dog to lick peanut butter off my testicles.

Seanchai

Quote from: Everyone BeforeBlah Blah Blah 4e > 3e Blah Blah  - no wait 3e > 4e Blah Blah

Whatever.

Stuart's new avatar wins this thread.

WTF is that, Stu?

Quote from: BlackhandStuart's new avatar wins this thread.

WTF is that, Stu?

You never ask an animal to attack.  You command him to attack.

:haw:

Quote from: SeanchaiA "large" number of people, huh? What's that, a few thousand?

Possibly...

Quote from: SeanchaiReally? Because WotC stayed afloat selling splatbook after splatbook to 3e skeptics.

They sold splatbook after splatbook to 3e fans. There's a difference.

Quote from: SeanchaiI agree with you there, I just don't think it counts for much. Your side says folks are shying away from 4e for one reason or another, but it's already doing well on just pre-orders alone.

Seanchai

You're correct, of course. 4e will do well.....initially. But the thing to keep in mind is that there's no real future in 4e for third-party publishers since Hasbro has made it pretty clear that they now reject the OGL and everything it stands for.

The OGL helped strengthen D&D as a brand during the 3e era, and with the loss of the OGL for the latest edition, 4e will suffer from a lack of third-party support. That will negatively affect Hasbro's bottom line. This reality is coupled with the fact that a sizable minority of players will be alienated by 4e, as they'll consider it too radical a departure from the implied setting of D&D. One thing to remember is that 4e is a temporary situation for D&D, and won't be published by Hasbro in ten years. In fact, it may very well be discontinued in less than five years. Hasbro will quickly dump 4e via the "planned obsolescence model", and move onto 4.5 or 5e, or instead focus far more on leveraging the D&D brand for novels, miniatures, and computer games.

Even now, gamers are making a big deal about Pathfinder, which will be a largely 3.x-compatible product. I'm gonna be a bit repetitive here, but what the hell...
 
Since Hasbro summarily rejects the OGL and the movement that surrounds it, we'll be discovering that a large number of d20 and OGL publishers will find this to be an unacceptable situation.

People want to publish d20-style games, and wish to do so without outside interference. Most publishers will inevitably see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead-end, and use the OGL for 3.x-compatible games or OGL variant games instead. They will do this because the player base is still partially there, and because devising a stable long-term business plan tethered to 4e is impossible. 4e has no OGL, and will inevitably be rendered "obsolete" in a handful of years anyway. Therefore, 3.x and especially the OGL will have longevity, but 4e won't.

As a result of all this, we're going to see some pretty major fragmentation of the rpg industry. Pathfinder is the first symptom of this fragmentation. There's already a bunch of publishers lining up to create products compatible with Pathfinder, and that's only the beginning.

We're going to see more OGL products. We'll also see more third-party game companies marketing their own systems. The reason why we'll see more is because the arrival of 4e has ensured that there's no commonly-agreed on "definitive" D&D experience. People now know that even 4e will be very temporary. So they'll stick with the game system that has the OGL.

The customer base for 3.x-compatible rpgs, and especially OGL-based rpgs will be smaller than the 4e, but it's irrelevant because the OGL/3.x has longevity. 4e doesn't. The "planned obsolescence model" remains in effect for D&D for as long as Hasbro owns it.

All this fappery will cause the rpg industry to fragment, to a degree, as I outlined above. Even the so-called Digital Initiative will be unable to prevent this as people can resort to MMO's to get an alternate fantasy experience. And if people are so stoked about playing D&D online, they can play Neverwinter Nights instead, without monthly fees.

Within five years or so, the 3.x-compatible and variant-OGL-based market will be stable and strong, the game companies not basing their future upon Hasbro's various licenses will be stronger than they were five to eight years ago, and the 4e crowd will be in disarray when a major new announcement from Hasbro renders 4e "obsolete". So, 4e will financially succeed, but will only be a very temporary success. Within ten years or less, Hasbro will most likely try to almost completely morph D&D into an online subscription-based model. Whether or not they succeed at that, is anybody's guess...:pundit:

I think that it would be absurd to suggest that 4e will be a "flop" in the sense of not turning a profit for WoTC.  But that's usually not the standard in most businesses (especially at WoTC's scale) for judging "success".  

Success in business usually consists in not just making a profit, but making MORE profit than you used to.  And that's going to be the real question: whether 4e actually manages to be MORE successful than 3e was.

As for my own position: I can't imagine myself playing 4e, but I do not totally rule out the possibility.

RPGPundit

Quote from: RPGPunditI think that it would be absurd to suggest that 4e will be a "flop" in the sense of not turning a profit for WoTC.  But that's usually not the standard in most businesses (especially at WoTC's scale) for judging "success".  

Success in business usually consists in not just making a profit, but making MORE profit than you used to.  And that's going to be the real question: whether 4e actually manages to be MORE successful than 3e was.

As for my own position: I can't imagine myself playing 4e, but I do not totally rule out the possibility.

RPGPundit

4e alone will be less successful than 3e. Hasbro might even know it, but they're already thinking beyond 4e.

In any case, you're correct. 4e won't "flop", but its success will be temporary, as Hasbro will quickly render 4e "obsolete", and crank out another edition while the iron is hot. At this point, they're convinced they have the gaming populace mentally "trained" to accept the whole "planned obsolescence model". That truth of that is debatable, but 4e is once again, a temporary situation, for the real edition to come. I suspect that 4e, coupled with their "Digital Initiative" is merely a schematic for what they really want to do with D&D, but they had to go there gradually (or else too many people would reject it), so 4e is Hasbro's compromise for what they really want, which is a compulsory subscription-based service for every gamer that wants to play D&D.

This won't happen for years, if at all, but I suspect that's Hasbro's true goal for the game. We all need to remember that 4e is only a stepping stone to where Hasbro really wants to take the game, and the Digital Initiative is the key to helping them achieve it.

In any case, 4e will sell plenty of copies (certainly more than Pathfinder), but it won't last as long as Pathfinder, other 3.x-derived games, and the rest of the OGL market. Meanwhile, the non-Hasbro-based OGL market will chug along quite adequately, slightly better than before...:pundit:

Quote from: StuartYou never ask an animal to attack.  You command him to attack.

:haw:

XOMG

This link is the coolest, most relevant, and most interesting thing that anyone can find in this entire thread.

Just to stay on topic, I will never play, let alone buy 4e.  Unless it comes with a blowjob, performed by a female (of course).  And even then, one session only.

But we all know how that will work.  

Blowjob is an activated ability, and you can only have one Blowjob in effect at any one time.  Blowjob affects only one target (without penalty), and is a magical effect that changes the target's behaviour, who will do anything in their power to get to the source of the Blowjob.  You may only Blowjob humanoids, or animals with genitalia at a -5 Penalty unless you have the Feat Animal Whore, in which case the penalty is negated.  You may not place a Blowjob on a creature where your own Blowjob is already active.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThey sold splatbook after splatbook to 3e fans. There's a difference.

Okay, the skeptics became "fans." However you want label them, the majority of the 3e opponents switched, then kept buying 3e products.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambBut the thing to keep in mind is that there's no real future in 4e for third-party publishers since Hasbro has made it pretty clear that they now reject the OGL and everything it stands for.

If the future of 3e lay in the hands of third-party publishers, boy was it in trouble! There are a few standouts, but largely, the third party support for D&D is...uninspiring.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe OGL helped strengthen D&D as a brand during the 3e era, and with the loss of the OGL for the latest edition, 4e will suffer from a lack of third-party support.

Except there will be third-party support.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThis reality is coupled with the fact that a sizable minority of players will be alienated by 4e, as they'll consider it too radical a departure from the implied setting of D&D.

Yes, and your four inch penis is a real vagina ripper, too. Seriously, dude, your idea of what constitutes "sizeable" is laughable.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambOne thing to remember is that 4e is a temporary situation for D&D, and won't be published by Hasbro in ten years.

That seems to be pretty much par for the course for larger publishers. The release an edition of their core rulebook, then a few years later, release a new one.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambEven now, gamers are making a big deal about Pathfinder, which will be a largely 3.x-compatible product. I'm gonna be a bit repetitive here, but what the hell...

Let's see if they're still making a big deal about it when WotC and other publishers are producing materials for the current D&D rules set...
 

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPeople want to publish d20-style games, and wish to do so without outside interference.

Why? Why do people want to publish d20-style games? Because D&D is king of the hill. And that's why they'll want to publish materials using the GSL or whatever the hell they're calling it these days.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambMost publishers will inevitably see the restrictive nature of the 4e license as a dead-end, and use the OGL for 3.x-compatible games or OGL variant games instead.

What would be the point of that? If you're going to shoot to have that little market share using a license, you might as well forgo using the license and run with your own game engine. You get the same number of customers and far fewer legal worries.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambAs a result of all this, we're going to see some pretty major fragmentation of the rpg industry.

No, we're going to see the status quo: D&D's share, then everyone else divides up the sliver of pie that's left.

Quote from: Sacrificial LambPathfinder is the first symptom of this fragmentation. There's already a bunch of publishers lining up to create products compatible with Pathfinder, and that's only the beginning.

You and numbers. Two is a bunch now? And when I read about them on TBP, I said, "Who?!"

Quote from: Sacrificial LambThe customer base for 3.x-compatible rpgs, and especially OGL-based rpgs will be smaller than the 4e, but it's irrelevant because the OGL/3.x has longevity.

Tell me this in five years when Paizo is releasing the second edition of Pathfinder...

Or have you not noticed that games released under the OGL have had revisions, evolved, etc.? We recently played Spycraft 2.0 after having played Spycraft 1.0 when it came out. My 1.0 books weren't all that useful in the 2.0 game...

Seanchai