Quote from: Lynn;646277While I know many people who didn't move ahead to 4e (folks who typically followed the latest versions of A/D&D), and some that have tried various OSR games, I don't know anyone who quit playing RPGs because of 4e. How about trying to substantiate your claim here?

I don't know what to tell you, other than outside of the old school blogs, pen 'n paper gaming just doesn't seem as vigorous from what I've seen. Many people have turned to computer gaming online or board games instead. This isn't anything I can prove in a court of law, sorry. I've just been visiting lots of blogs and forums from the past dozen years or so, and from what I've seen, when the industry is in a slump, so is the hobby. It's a fixable slump, but it's a slump.

Quote from: Warthur^ This. Why can't Pathfinder be the lynchpin for the industry 3.X was?

I'm not saying Paizo can't be the lynchpin for the industry that 3.X was, but they're facing challenges that WoTC never had to face.

(1.) The rpg market is totally fragmented.
(2.) As popular as 3.x is, it is no longer shiny and new.
(3.) WoTC tried to kill the OGL, and that had the side-effect of fewer publishers producing material for it, even though they legally could do so.
(4.) Gaming online is far more prevalent now than it was a dozen years ago, and acts as a massive time sink for people who would normally play rpgs.
(5.) When approaching online gamers, the strengths of the medium of tabletop games needs to be more strongly emphasized.
(6.) Even in this electronic age, rpgs need a paper magazine with a highly-noticeable physical presence, readily available in stores. Paizo doesn't have that.

There's more, but I'm too tired to write a Bible-sized post.

Paizo is the current champion in the market, and they're doing a good job, but that doesn't change the fact that pen & paper gaming still needs a whole new generation of new blood for this industry and hobby to survive, and thrive. :pundit:

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb;646344I don't know what to tell you, other than outside of the old school blogs, pen 'n paper gaming just doesn't seem as vigorous from what I've seen. Many people have turned to computer gaming online or board games instead. This isn't anything I can prove in a court of law, sorry. I've just been visiting lots of blogs and forums from the past dozen years or so, and from what I've seen, when the industry is in a slump, so is the hobby. It's a fixable slump, but it's a slump.

The box was never big to begin with, and for the reasons I've stated countless times before, won't be unless something big for RPGs happens.
 

QuoteI'm not saying Paizo can't be the lynchpin for the industry that 3.X was, but they're facing challenges that WoTC never had to face.

(1.) The rpg market is totally fragmented.
(2.) As popular as 3.x is, it is no longer shiny and new.
(3.) WoTC tried to kill the OGL, and that had the side-effect of fewer publishers producing material for it, even though they legally could do so.
(4.) Gaming online is far more prevalent now than it was a dozen years ago, and acts as a massive time sink for people who would normally play rpgs.
(5.) When approaching online gamers, the strengths of the medium of tabletop games needs to be more strongly emphasized.
(6.) Even in this electronic age, rpgs need a paper magazine with a highly-noticeable physical presence, readily available in stores. Paizo doesn't have that.

There's more, but I'm too tired to write a Bible-sized post.

Paizo is the current champion in the market, and they're doing a good job, but that doesn't change the fact that pen & paper gaming still needs a whole new generation of new blood for this industry and hobby to survive, and thrive. :pundit:

Now those are interesting ones, and ones that I mostly agree with.

1) On the fragmentation of the market, well - for us, customers, that's actually a good thing. Board games are just as fragmented, but nobody takes that as a minus, at least on the customers' side.

2) True.

3) Again, true - in a way, letting the 3rd party do your support work for you is not as stupid as one'd think, from a business standpoint. RPGs aren't software, where you may wish to try and hold onto a monopoly as long as possible, because it's like selling bread.

4) Agreed. And there were never too many of people willing to play RPGs in the first place. Not to mention that as surprising as this statement may sound, you do need social skills to play RPGs - and you may train them as you do.

5) Agreed. The strength of RPG as a leisure activity for meeting with your friends, drinking a few (if you prefer to do so) and just engage in a fun social activity must be played. Also the fact that it helps your social skills, as you learn to interact with people face - to face, and to work in a group.

6) I am unsure on that. With Kindles and their ilk being more and more popular, PDF seems the way to go, especially as it marginalises your risk factor in such a risky business as RPGs.

Quote(3.) WoTC tried to kill the OGL, and that had the side-effect of fewer publishers producing material for it, even though they legally could do so.

WotC tried to kill it, Paizo saved it, Pathfinder is now #1. What's stopping all those publishers switching to PF?

Quote(6.) Even in this electronic age, rpgs need a paper magazine with a highly-noticeable physical presence, readily available in stores. Paizo doesn't have that.

Why? One glancing mention of D&D in a Penny Arcade strip reaches more of the youth demographic than any paper magazine would.

QuotePaizo is the current champion in the market, and they're doing a good job, but that doesn't change the fact that pen & paper gaming still needs a whole new generation of new blood for this industry and hobby to survive, and thrive. :pundit:

There's a new generation gaming perfectly happily, dude, they're just not gaming with you.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb;646344(1.) The rpg market is totally fragmented.

Wasn't this one of the marketing reasons for the OGL/d20 in the first place?

How is the market today more fragmented than the market pre-3E?

I seem remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth of everybody complaining that all their favorite systems/settings were being overhauled for d20, and how that was such a bad thing.

Now, more new systems are proliferating than during the OGL/d20/3E period, and this is now the new bad thing?

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb;646344I don't know what to tell you, other than outside of the old school blogs, pen 'n paper gaming just doesn't seem as vigorous from what I've seen. Many people have turned to computer gaming online or board games instead.

It could simply be a natural and inevitable decline. The way model railways declined, the way amateur astronomy declined, and the way historical wargames declined. Society changes. Recreation changes. No need for any villains in this story.

Things go in cycles and it is hard to predict what will succeed in creating another boom or drawing in a more mainstream audience. I do believe from time to time the hobby can gain a bigger audience. But I am not sure what the magical formula or timing is (it seems to me there are a lot of different kinds of rpgs out there trying different kinds of things, which is good). The existing market does seem to be pretty small. I don't think we should write-off the possibility of mainstream growth though just because of that (I do remember a time when D&D was everywhere and we have had two pretty big booms).

I think the best thing anyone interested in trying to grow the hobby can do is take whatever it was that enthralled you with it in the first place and try to recreate that in a product you think will have mass appeal. With kickstarter and POD (which is now extending beyond mere books it seems) it is quite easy to throw your hat in the ring. If you have an innovative business plan that will bring gaming to the masses, don't wait for WOTC or Paizo to do it, get out there and test your ideas.

Before I did that myself, I thought I knew all the answers, and it was humbling to stumble out and see what game publishing is really about. But I have never lost my optimism that the right game at the right time, released in the right way, will take the world by storm.

Quote from: Haffrung;646400It could simply be a natural and inevitable decline. The way model railways declined, the way amateur astronomy declined, and the way historical wargames declined. Society changes. Recreation changes. No need for any villains in this story.

Well, all industries (and hobbies) experience peaks and valleys in their popularity. We're in a valley right now. I don't think it's necessarily permanent, but we are in one.

Quote from: kythriWasn't this one of the marketing reasons for the OGL/d20 in the first place?

How is the market today more fragmented than the market pre-3E?

I seem remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth of everybody complaining that all their favorite systems/settings were being overhauled for d20, and how that was such a bad thing.

Now, more new systems are proliferating than during the OGL/d20/3E period, and this is now the new bad thing?

No, not a bad thing. But you're forgetting that 4e has garnered an unprecedented amount of ill-will in the gaming community, probably more so than any other edition of D&D, ever. And the type of fragmentation is different this time. During the pre-3e market, this (limited) fragmentation caused gamers to turn to other roleplaying games, and to some degree, CCGs (collectible card games). But the current fragmentation is causing gamers to turn towards other roleplaying games, card games, board games, and computer games. Heck, people are even spending more of a time sink goofing around on their tablets and cellphones. :pundit:

Quote from: GMSkarka;646151Keep in mind that after production costs and shipping for all the stuff promised, he's not "hauling off" jack shit.   I'd be surprised if he's even breaking even.

At a bare minimum he hauled off a holiday in Japan for himself, that was one of the stretch goals. The rest was a collection of hankerchiefs and gewgaws. I'd say he did pretty well out of it to be honest. In any case these things are usually expressed in sales rather than profits; by that yardstick he's certainly put the lie to 'no money in RPGs'.

A big part of the reason for the decline is the economy.  RPGs started to decline when the economy started to decline.  The economy is still pretty shaky, and so are RPG sales.  It's not the only reason, but it's one major reason.

Quote from: The Traveller;646498At a bare minimum he hauled off a holiday in Japan for himself, that was one of the stretch goals. The rest was a collection of hankerchiefs and gewgaws. I'd say he did pretty well out of it to be honest. In any case these things are usually expressed in sales rather than profits; by that yardstick he's certainly put the lie to 'no money in RPGs'.

All those discussions about lack of money RPGs kind of really make me thinking (and I'd be glad if clash would perhaps enter the discussion, seeing how he's still making games like a pro).

Because I feel like for some reason, most of us here left their basic economic knowledge at the door.


First of all, 80's popularity of DnD and RPGs in general might have, and most likely have been, a typical "new toy bubble". Then again, the hobby hasn't really shrunk I expect - it is just that the pie is much more divided  by various companies, and large monopolists like TSR or White Wolf have fallen out of the game because they were too desperately trying to create that monopoly. Why am I saying so?

DnD may be even first in sales of the RPGs, but it may still be turning a loss rather than a profit. On the other hand, Eclipse Phase may have sold "only" 10k printed copies, but netted a tidy profit, and as much as it truly tears and pains me to say, I suspect Baker's getting nice profits from his works as well - maybe not enough to make a living just out of them, but probably much more than just a booze found. And the answer's really easy. The production costs for a typical DnD books, given the amount and quality of illustrations and paper alone, drives the production costs sky - high. Add to that dedicated teams of editors, usually there's also a few freelancers working on various chapters, and the fact that unlike an indie RPG, you can't just try to use your fans to offload some of  the work you'd normally need to pay for, and you have your costs ramped even higher and higher, so the break - even point is even higher. The answer to that is of course to use your big buck for marketing - but that's also adding to the break even costs! And add to that a business infrastructure, and voila - a recipe why you may dominate the market, but still be poised for downfall.

On the other hand, if watching and reading histories of people who have squandered various government/EU grants taught me anything, than with all due apologies and I'm not pointing any fingers, but I'll have a cactus grow on my hand, before I'll believe that all or even most of Kickstarter money is indeed invested in the product. Faking bills is childs' play.

There are already many more RPGs than possible to play in a lifetime, not to mention storygames. And often enough, even most forgotten RPGs have some devoted fanbase, which keeps the product alive long after the developers abandoned it. For the most part, the cry from (and also bear in mind, it's usually The Big Guys who cry about this) developers about Fragmentation Hurting Everyone, is because RPG bigs realised too late that the monopolies slipped out of their hands, and they don't have the money to play EA or Activision in video games world, and just buy those people out in order to still dominate the market. And heck - seems like this strategy isn't even working that well for EA. Because the problem isn't that hobby is dying - it's just that Wizards would like us to believe that if you are not buying DnD, hobby will die.

And I should specify that I believe that while there is indeed decent money, it's not that decent for most to quit their dayjobs - or for big RPG - focused business ventures, to really flourish.

Quote from: Mistwell;646500A big part of the reason for the decline is the economy.  RPGs started to decline when the economy started to decline.  The economy is still pretty shaky, and so are RPG sales.  It's not the only reason, but it's one major reason.

Calling current global economy "shaky" is like calling World War 2 a border dispute.

Quote from: Rincewind1;646502First of all, 80's popularity of DnD and RPGs in general might have, and most likely have been, a typical "new toy bubble". Then again, the hobby hasn't really shrunk I expect - it is just that the pie is much more divided  by various companies, and large monopolists like TSR or White Wolf have fallen out of the game because they were too desperately trying to create that monopoly.

I think the overall number of PnP RPG gamers has drastically shrunk since the early eighties heyday, because a lot of people who used to play are no longer interested. The number of boxed sets TSR was moving per month in 1981 is quite possibly around the yearly sales of all RPGs these days. To illustrate, take a look at the sales numbers Evil Hat puts out here. Realize that Evil Hat is fabulously successful by RPG company terms. Notice that their highest-selling product is getting lifetime numbers that would get an entire genre shut down and its editors fired at a conventional publishing house.

QuoteOn the other hand, if watching and reading histories of people who have squandered various government/EU grants taught me anything, than with all due apologies and I'm not pointing any fingers, but I'll have a cactus grow on my hand, before I'll believe that all or even most of Kickstarter money is indeed invested in the product. Faking bills is childs' play.

I have no problem whatsoever believing that the vast majority of kickstarter cash gets poured into the game, because game kickstarters are much more expensive to produce than most people realize- especially people who start them. To illustrate, I'll give the numbers on my Spears of the Dawn kickstarter. It closed out with $10,000 and the promise of an RPG and a PDF-only associated adventure. Where did that money go?

First, KS takes its cut. There was exactly one card charge that didn't clear, so that was negligible, but it still means I've only got $9K left.

Next, I had to buy art for Spears of the Dawn. There are approximately 60 pieces of b/w line art in the 190-page book, ranging from a half-dozen full-page spreads to dozens of quarter-page illos. I also needed to invest in a full-color cover. My artists worked for a very reasonable price, and so I only had to shell out $3,315 for this, leaving me with $5,685.

Then it was time to buy art for the companion module, the House of Bone and Amber. I'd promised color art for this one and I wanted to get West African artists for it where possible. Protip: a dude in Lagos with Internet access knows what artists cost, and he is not going to work for half-rates just because of where he happens to be sitting. All told, the art in that 40-page module ran me $1,400, and that was going light on it. That left me with $4,285 to work with.

And then we get to do fulfillment. Print the books, pack the books, ship the books, and deal with the inevitable problems when some people don't get the book for some reason or another. Also, notice that it costs $50 to send a book to Brazil. This cost me about $3,200, leaving me with a grand total of about $1,100.

Oh. Except there's taxes on that. 15% self-employment taxes and another 20% or so on the margin, and so I've got about $600 profit. If I'd been dumb enough to promise The House of Bone and Amber in print rather than PDF, I'd have been a couple thousand in the red on the project.

So yes. A $10,000 kickstarter turned into precisely $600 in profits, and this is with me doing every bit of the editing, layout, writing, and management work myself. If I had farmed virtually anything out to someone else, I'd have been in the hole. Of course, now I've got a game and a module to sell on DTRPG, and they've been doing respectably, but almost that entire initial KS windfall was absorbed in producing the game.

And it's not even a particularly lavish example of the species. It's a b/w interior, old-school two-column layout book. Those 10,000 zealous fans of Fate Core together handed Evil Hat about $400,000. Which is great. Except if you do the math, that's about $40 per fan. Which is about what an average hardback RPG costs, except that if they bought it afterwards they'd at least pay their own shipping on it. Evil Hat did admirably with their KS, but they do not have money to blow if they're going to get the game to their backers.

Quote from: SineNomine;646520Protip: a dude in Lagos with Internet access knows what artists cost, and he is not going to work for half-rates just because of where he happens to be sitting.

Sure they will. Sorry but look at the work this dude in the Ukraine is rolling out for five bucks a pop. You overpaid for the art here.

Quote from: SineNomine;646520Also, notice that it costs $50 to send a book to Brazil. This cost me about $3,200, leaving me with a grand total of about $1,100.

Most KSs are specifying that costs don't include shipping these days.

The question I'd ask is why you didn't work all this out in advance and price your KS appropriately leaving you with a comfortable profit margin.

I reject the OP's premise as well. You see a missed opportunity. I see dozens of cleverly made, available in print and successful RPGs. Not just in kickstarters, but there's a lot of heavy production licensed games which have recently been released and appear to be doing pretty damn well (Dresden Files, Marvel Heroic, FFG Star Wars, Iron Kingdoms etc.) not to mention Dungeon World, Mummy: the Curse, and Shadowrun all seem to be doing pretty well to fill in the vacuum.

Instead of one fantasy D&D clone, you've got dozens of well made games to choose from. I think you've got a bunch of companies taking advantage of the WotC "debacle."

Quote from: SineNomine;646520I think the overall number of PnP RPG gamers has drastically shrunk since the early eighties heyday, because a lot of people who used to play are no longer interested. The number of boxed sets TSR was moving per month in 1981 is quite possibly around the yearly sales of all RPGs these days. To illustrate, take a look at the sales numbers Evil Hat puts out here. Realize that Evil Hat is fabulously successful by RPG company terms. Notice that their highest-selling product is getting lifetime numbers that would get an entire genre shut down and its editors fired at a conventional publishing house.

Fair enough - as I said, I think the market was never too big, it was just an early bubble that got it going and TSR never realised that, until it was too late and they kicked the bucket. But also  the question is - how much were they earning? What were the costs as opposed to profits from that single unit? And how many of them were collecting dusts in gaming shops?

QuoteFirst, KS takes its cut. There was exactly one card charge that didn't clear, so that was negligible, but it still means I've only got $9K left.

Well, that's a given.

QuoteNext, I had to buy art for Spears of the Dawn. There are approximately 60 pieces of b/w line art in the 190-page book, ranging from a half-dozen full-page spreads to dozens of quarter-page illos. I also needed to invest in a full-color cover. My artists worked for a very reasonable price, and so I only had to shell out $3,315 for this, leaving me with $5,685.

Then it was time to buy art for the companion module, the House of Bone and Amber. I'd promised color art for this one and I wanted to get West African artists for it where possible. Protip: a dude in Lagos with Internet access knows what artists cost, and he is not going to work for half-rates just because of where he happens to be sitting. All told, the art in that 40-page module ran me $1,400, and that was going light on it. That left me with $4,285 to work with.

Fair enough as well. But on the other hand - I keep looking on the internet, and I see a lot of people who show at least above average/decent drawing capabilities. You need but to look at the webcomic crowds, to see hundreds of people drawing excellent stuff for free - and judging by the average quality of a plot, they are in desperate need for a writer.

QuoteAnd then we get to do fulfillment. Print the books, pack the books, ship the books, and deal with the inevitable problems when some people don't get the book for some reason or another. Also, notice that it costs $50 to send a book to Brazil. This cost me about $3,200, leaving me with a grand total of about $1,100.

Why did you not specify  that they pay for shipping, then? I live in Europe, and when I backed a few KSes, I had to pay arm and a leg for shipping. Your business decision, really. And in connection to the other...

QuoteOh. Except there's taxes on that. 15% self-employment taxes and another 20% or so on the margin, and so I've got about $600 profit. If I'd been dumb enough to promise The House of Bone and Amber in print rather than PDF, I'd have been a couple thousand in the red on the project.

I can only speak from Polish/European perspective, but since it is not  that hard nor expensive to start at least a proto- small business in the bureocratic hellhole that I live in, it can't be too hard in the US. And should you had that, you'd write at least such stuff as shipping under costs. As an old joke says, "If you have a problem you can fix with money it's not a problem, it's just costs".

QuoteSo yes. A $10,000 kickstarter turned into precisely $600 in profits, and this is with me doing every bit of the editing, layout, writing, and management work myself. If I had farmed virtually anything out to someone else, I'd have been in the hole. Of course, now I've got a game and a module to sell on DTRPG, and they've been doing respectably, but almost that entire initial KS windfall was absorbed in producing the game.

No offence, but kind of exactly this - if you were left with 1$ from Kickstarter, that's still a dollar you were in the clear. You didn't borrow this money, you had it and used it, no further strings attached unless you'd default on the product. Even if the product would flop, you'd still be safe and one dollar (which is hardly the reward you'd probably deserve from that supplement - I read your previous works, they are quite good). Most business, such as mine, don't have that safety net.

QuoteAnd it's not even a particularly lavish example of the species. It's a b/w interior, old-school two-column layout book. Those 10,000 zealous fans of Fate Core together handed Evil Hat about $400,000. Which is great. Except if you do the math, that's about $40 per fan. Which is about what an average hardback RPG costs, except that if they bought it afterwards they'd at least pay their own shipping on it. Evil Hat did admirably with their KS, but they do not have money to blow if they're going to get the game to their backers.

Again, that's a bit of a business akumen - if you promise golden mountains, well, that's your problem.

Quote from: The Traveller;646524Sure they will. Sorry but look at the work this dude in the Ukraine is rolling out for five bucks a pop. You overpaid for the art here.

Great. I need him to take specific art direction, sell all rights to the art, work to my schedule, and fit with the visual idiom of the rest of the game. And I need about five of him to get the art done in a timely fashion.

What's that? I can't get that for $5?

Everybody likes to wave around the noob DeviantArtist doing decent art for peanuts, but when it comes to actually finding these guys to hire, one miraculously starts to realize why they're charging a pack of cigs a go. It's because they can't deliver on time, to spec, in volume sufficient to be serviceable. I don't have a month to sit around while they wait to get inspired. I don't have leisure to run three revision passes while they learn how to draw feet.

The ones who can do all of this? They stop charging $5 a picture real damn fast.

QuoteMost KSs are specifying that costs don't include shipping these days.

I haven't seen much evidence of that myself, and that certainly wasn't the case last October. People do not like getting billed twice for their KS pledges, plus collecting shipping payment at ship time is a whole new layer of transaction costs and credit card processing.

QuoteThe question I'd ask is why you didn't work all this out in advance and price your KS appropriately leaving you with a comfortable profit margin.

I did work all this out in advance, which is why I was able to deliver two months early. I just accepted that making the 10K stretch minimum meant that I'd have to make the profit on the post-KS sales. Because, as I said, making and shipping a RPG with respectable indie-grade production values is a Hell of a lot more expensive than most people realize.