Quote from: Dirk Remmecke;646040Because print ads are very expensive.

Here's are the ad rates for a magazine named "GameInformer".

http://www.gameinformer.com/p/printadspecs.aspx

For an 1/3 page sized B&W ad printed once, the going rate is $80,906.

For a full page sized 4-color ad printed once, the going rate is $195,455.


For an 1/3 page sized B&W ad printed 60X, the going rate is $57,522 per ad.

Quote from: Warthur;646036Well, I'm well below the 40s range you're talking about and so are almost all of the gamers in my particular circles.

You may wish to consider that you might be observing not a shift in the RPG-playing population overall, but a shift in the behaviour of con-goers. I, for one, have absolutely no desire to play an RPG at a con, and the same is true of most of the gamers I know. I think this comes from several factors:

...

Basically, I dislike playing tabletop RPGs with strangers, and playing tabletop RPGs with folk I know at a Con seems pointless because we could just do that at one of our houses, where we'll have more control over what food and drink is available and we know the toilets will work and I can hear myself think, and there's a fair proportion of people in my generation who feel the same.

And yet, here in Denver the two gaming conventions have tons of folks playing RPGs, most of them younger than I (43, at last count).  What are some of the fun things with con games?

1) Trying a system you're curious about without having to buy a book.

Lots of interesting games show up at conventions, and usually they're more than willing to teach you how to play the system and get you going.

2) Trying a character you might not normally play.

Either a class or archetype you don't usually play, or a personality you don't usually play. Or just stuck in a situation where you don't usually play - you might not be willing to play a wife in a struggling marriage, but if it's part of a call of cthulhu game, why not?

3) And there's the fun of meeting new people who have the same interests.

I'm not a social sort of guy.  But if I sit down with six other people around a table and play a game with them, I may end up with a new friend.  And if I don't, well... it's four hours, it's not a marriage.  And if it's really bad, I can always pull an "emergency at work" call that I got while I was going to the restroom.  But I haven't had to.

Of course, I'm aware of a number of gamers who don't go to the cons, and that's cool too.

So, different areas, different stuff happens.

Quote from: Warthur;646036You may wish to consider that you might be observing not a shift in the RPG-playing population overall, but a shift in the behaviour of con-goers. I, for one, have absolutely no desire to play an RPG at a con, and the same is true of most of the gamers I know.

Most (say 90% or so) of the gamers I've known over the last 35+ years have never been to a gaming con. Those who have have mostly only been to one or two small local gaming cons. Only 3 or 4 I've personally known (as opposed to known online) have ever been to any of major gaming conventions (Gencon, Origins, etc.)

I can't think of any gamers I've regularly played with (a smaller group than "gamer's I've known") who had any interest in RPGs tournaments. The idea of playing RPGs competitively does not interest them. To many, it does not even make sense.

I've never had a regular in my groups who regularly played in RPGA play. The only player I've had who was a long term member of the RPGA was only a member to get issues of Polyhedron. RPGA play is generally thought of as just slightly better than tournament gaming.

Few of my players have even followed the RPG industry, been regulars on a RPG message board, etc. Most of these gamers are not very visible to random other gamers, let alone visible the RPG industry.

I suspect most players are like this.

Quote from: Spinachcat;645576We are in what may be a unique lull in the RPG industry. WotC is dead in the water until 5e comes out. Pathfinder is no longer the shiny new thing. 5e probably won't ship until GenCon 2014. WoD is on life support. Neither WotC nor Paizo are doing any real marketing, outreach or advertising.

The situation is tailor made for a new fresh RPG (or refreshed old favorite) to make a big splash and grab some momentum before 5e shows up. This is the moment for some company to seize the day.

So why hasn't any 2nd tier (or 3rd) company taken the initiative?

Who has the money? A big push costs hundreds of thousands of dollars - millions if it included the kind of high-profile marketing campaign that some around here put so much faith in. People with real business acumen can find far less risky ways to make money. Even some of the 'successful' RPG companies like Goodman Games are run by people who have day jobs. Quite simply, there's fuck all money in the RPG business, because the market is tiny.

You may as well ask why nobody has taken advantage of the slowing release schedule of GMT games to really jump into the historical hex and counter wargame market. The answer is because everybody who knows anything about the historical hex and counter wargame business knows it's a hobby more than a business, and it wouldn't even be viable if it weren't for the virtually free labour of most of the people who make the games. It's simply demographics - few people want to spend hours on detailed historical simulations of warfare. RPGs today are in the same boat. I'd be surprised if the industry supports much more than 50 full-time employees. It's a tiny, tiny market.

Quote from: The Traveller;645616A variety of quite popular kickstarters say otherwise. The only thing stopping RPGs from being a whole lot more profitable is an ubiquitous failure to understand the unique pleasure they bring. These aren't MMORPGs, these are not boardgames, these are living adventures.

It's all in the marketing, kids.

Sounds like you have an opportunity to make yourself a wealthy man!

Quote from: Spinachcat;645636

Quote from: SineNomine;645632I have my doubts about that. When you consider the opportunity costs involved, if you have a million bucks to invest, why would you invest it in an RPG? From a business perspective, all you can see is an illustrious history of decline, product fumbles, and steadily-increasing market fragmentation. Your bricks-and-mortar retail options have been steadily dwindling for decades and show no signs of reversing, and your biggest historical bulge of buyers are in their forties these days.

WotC gambled its favorite internal organs that they could break open a wider market of players with their new edition. They made the precise sort of push to widen the player base that everybody's been asking for since the D&D cartoon went off the air. Many of these same people then bewailed their efforts as utterly stupid, but WotC paid the money and took the chance, and it has not visibly paid off for them.

I don't see a lot of reason to believe that the next company that comes along is going to be able to find the magic marketing words where WotC failed. The fad happened at the right place and the right time. Things have changed since then, and I'm not seeing any sign that we'll experience such a craze again.

Sounds like the boardgame market before their current boom. Or the minis wargame market before Warhammer hit the scene.

The current boom in the boardgame market had nothing to do with marketing wherewithal. It happened because hobbyists learned about German-style boardgames that featured:

* Less then two hour playtimes.
* No players elimination and very little direct conflict (making the games appealing to families and couples)
* Simple rules that are no longer than 8 pages.
* Thoroughly streamlined and playtested gameplay.

That's the foundation of the boardgame revival. English-language publishers picked up on those design principles and incorporated them into more thematic games. But the principles still hold. While you have the occasional outlier such as Twilight Imperium or War of the Ring, the real momentum in the industry is driven by incredibly accessible, fast games. The potential audience for a game drops off a cliff when it goes longer than two hours or can't be learned verbally in 15 minutes.

What would the RPG equivalent of a Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, or Pandemic even look like? And how would it be received by the existing RPG player-base?

Quote from: RPGPundit;645999I reject the OP's assertion that there is in fact a "debacle" going on; if anything, the Debacle happened with 4e.

Trying to jump in with some big D&D-beating project now would be very stupid, as you risk having your entire investment swept away when 5e comes out.

RPGPundit

It's not a risk. 5e won't take the gaming world by storm. At best, it might do as well in the market as 4e did, and that's about it. Trust in WoTC is at an all-time low, and for good reason. The planned obsolescence model that WoTC uses is hurting them (because it pisses people off), and they won't stop using that model, unless someone else takes over the license. Frankly, I think that 4e and the GSL depressed the climate of the gaming market and gaming industry, and caused many game designers (and gamers) to find some other outlet for their imagination and creativity. That's why nobody's taking advantage of this situation.

Is the situation fixable? Yes, but not by WoTC. :pundit:

Quote from: RandallS;646052Most (say 90% or so) of the gamers I've known over the last 35+ years have never been to a gaming con. Those who have have mostly only been to one or two small local gaming cons. Only 3 or 4 I've personally known (as opposed to known online) have ever been to any of major gaming conventions (Gencon, Origins, etc.)

I can't think of any gamers I've regularly played with (a smaller group than "gamer's I've known") who had any interest in RPGs tournaments. The idea of playing RPGs competitively does not interest them. To many, it does not even make sense.

I've never had a regular in my groups who regularly played in RPGA play. The only player I've had who was a long term member of the RPGA was only a member to get issues of Polyhedron. RPGA play is generally thought of as just slightly better than tournament gaming.

Few of my players have even followed the RPG industry, been regulars on a RPG message board, etc. Most of these gamers are not very visible to random other gamers, let alone visible the RPG industry.

I suspect most players are like this.

How much of this is influenced by you?

Quote from: RandallS;646052Most (say 90% or so) of the gamers I've known over the last 35+ years have never been to a gaming con. Those who have have mostly only been to one or two small local gaming cons. Only 3 or 4 I've personally known (as opposed to known online) have ever been to any of major gaming conventions (Gencon, Origins, etc.)

I can't think of any gamers I've regularly played with (a smaller group than "gamer's I've known") who had any interest in RPGs tournaments. The idea of playing RPGs competitively does not interest them. To many, it does not even make sense.

I've never had a regular in my groups who regularly played in RPGA play. The only player I've had who was a long term member of the RPGA was only a member to get issues of Polyhedron. RPGA play is generally thought of as just slightly better than tournament gaming.

Few of my players have even followed the RPG industry, been regulars on a RPG message board, etc. Most of these gamers are not very visible to random other gamers, let alone visible the RPG industry.

I suspect most players are like this.

Yep. Out of the seven other guys I play RPGs with, only one even reads RPG forums or reviews. The rest just show up and play. To them, RPGs are about as much a hobby or community as playing poker.

Quote from: Sacrificial Lamb;646062It's not a risk. 5e won't take the gaming world by storm. At best, it might do as well in the market as 4e did, and that's about it. Trust in WoTC is at an all-time low, and for good reason. The planned obsolescence model that WoTC uses is hurting them (because it pisses people off), and they won't stop using that model, unless someone else takes over the license. Frankly, I think that 4e and the GSL depressed the climate of the gaming market and gaming industry, and caused many game designers (and gamers) to find some other outlet for their imagination and creativity. That's why nobody's taking advantage of this situation.

The GSL depressed the market because... why, exactly? The OGL was still there. Non-D&D systems were still there. Why was it necessary for third parties to be able to produce product for 4th edition for the industry to thrive? Hell, given that we're given to understand around these parts that 4E was a miserable failure, wouldn't it have been a business blunder to do so?

Quote from: Warthur;646077Why was it necessary for third parties to be able to produce product for 4th edition for the industry to thrive?

It wasn't and it has been proven as some companies have actually produced third party product for 4e.

There has been a problem with Wotc trying to kill the OGL in a backwards kind of sense. Their goal to kill the OGL was a factor, amongst others, that pushed Wotc to create an edition with rules so focused, strict and intricate so that if you did not like some of 4e's basic premises you were at loss and thus a disappointed D&D fan. 4e created a lot of that disappointment and let many fans suspect that if 4e were OGL perhaps it would do better as 3.x did. That actually means that fans are not crazy about 3.x either and are open to buy a seemingly better game than 3.x (as they did with Paizo's Pathfinder -I am not saying that Pathfinder is better, only that it were OGL and marketed as a better (but compatible) game).

Of course with the OGL we have seen free online sites with all rules Pathfinder while Wotc asks for a subscription fee. This also has helped Pathfinder against 4e amongst D&D fans.

And you can easily understand that happy fans means a better doing industry. While disappointed fans means a depressed industry. Not always, but many times as in this case.

I actually think the OGL hurt the games industry as a whole via the following.

First, it encouraged the talent pool at WoTC to spin off their own companies.  If Monte Cook, for instance, could only do D&D supplements via WoTC, he would most likely have stayed either as staff or a permanent freelancer.  At one time WoTC was actually trying to get Gary Gygax back to write for them.  But opening it up actually made it more lucrative for their best writers to spin off their own stuff.  And many did.

Second, while it brought in a flux of extra development via complementary and supplementary products, it didn't really expand the market as much.  A lot of publishers went from producing their own game designs to D&D clones.  This lead to less variety and less innovation.  (I see it akin PC vs Apple, while PCs dominated and provided stability, without the Apple company a lot of innovation probably would not have happened).

Finally, the change in the primary product that everybody worked on via the 4e release caused what I called an "Irish Potato Famine"--everybody was growing potatoes and few people diversified.  A lot of the complimentary companies had to switch gears--we saw this effect when 3.5 came out.  By changing the market to a D&D dominated market, this made it more susceptible to product shocks like this.  And I think the market would have been healthier if more diverse companies were around.

Quote from: Rincewind1;645879Dunno how it is in the USA, but in Poland teenagers rarely go to cons because money.

I'd say, the world over, young people don't go to Cons...because they don't have to. They have a large (fairly captive) social group to pull out members from. Part of the reason you don't see many college kids either. Cons serve a function, but it's a function mostly appreciated by older gamers (social and professional networking; trying out new, or old, game systems; a weekend away from wife and kids... ).

Quote from: Daddy Warpig;646039Imagination is good for something. Make your own movies... in your mind.

D&D... Anything You Want It To Be.(TM)

Followed up by...

An enchanted forest, filled with goblins. A simple village, under attack.

Only you can save them.

D&D... Anything You Want It To Be.(TM)

Then...

The orc horde nears the city. The chieftan, clad in furs, bellows a challenge.

Your wizard lets loose a fireball...

D&D... Anything You Want It To Be.(TM)

(Couple these descriptions with a pic of people sitting at a table, GM screen, books, dice. And another illo, showing the situation described in the copy. Each ad should evoke some common and beloved fantasy trope, and have some tie in to D&D.)

It's a fucking fantasy game in the golden age of fantasy media. The Hobbit, Game of Thrones, and more.

Seriously, how is "you can do whatever you want" or "make your own fantasy movie" not a selling point?

(Fine, some of the above need work. But they're at least interesting.)

WotC or Paizo should be paying attention to you. Seriously.

Quote from: Haffrung;646065Yep. Out of the seven other guys I play RPGs with, only one even reads RPG forums or reviews. The rest just show up and play. To them, RPGs are about as much a hobby or community as playing poker.

And I'd say that's how 90%+ of the hobby goes about it.
I'd also say you're more likely to find GM's, than Players, on-line as well.

Quote from: Warthur;646077The GSL depressed the market because... why, exactly? The OGL was still there. Non-D&D systems were still there. Why was it necessary for third parties to be able to produce product for 4th edition for the industry to thrive?

Because a lot of the 3rd tiers write "for the Big Dogs". It's a lot easier to get a RoI for a book that sells to 30% of the market, than one that sells to 5% (assuming equal merit). Money begets money, and you have to sell books, to make more books. Whether that's a good or not, matters where you sit on "hobby vs business".

Quote from: Sommerjon;646063How much of this is influenced by you?

Higher than "none" certainly, but probably less than "some". I've never ran games just for my friends. However, one of my friends was one of the people who went to lots of conventions. He was single and his job in the Air force was basically scheduling flights that were likely to have "space available" seats, so he could easily fly to lots of places for next to nothing -- and got to a lot of conventions that way. However, he did not go to play in tournaments but to buy stuff that was hard to get otherwise -- something that isn't much of a problem any more, at least if you do not mind PDFs.

Quote from: JRT;646097I actually think the OGL hurt the games industry as a whole via the following.

It might have hurt the industry (or at least some parts of it), but it was the one of best things that ever happened to the hobby.

Quote from: Haffrung;646057RPGs today are in the same boat. I'd be surprised if the industry supports much more than 50 full-time employees. It's a tiny, tiny market.

And yet that TBZ guy hauled off better than $125,000 in a big creaking sack. No, no don't bother with the qualifications and the backtracking, there's money to be made.

Quote from: Haffrung;646057Sounds like you have an opportunity to make yourself a wealthy man!

Apparently, others certainly are.

Quote from: RandallS;646052Few of my players have even followed the RPG industry, been regulars on a RPG message board, etc. Most of these gamers are not very visible to random other gamers, let alone visible the RPG industry.

Yup, I've been immersed in web stuff since there was a web, and I only thought of looking up RPG forums a year and change ago.