Quote from: Dodger;527037Furthermore, I expect that they will plan for 5e to last much longer than 4e and it wouldn't suprise me if we saw the return of Basic and Advanced versions of the game.

I doubt we will see 5e last longer than 4e or the 3e->3.5 timeframe. There is just too much money in new corebooks.

I would LOVE to see a return to a Basic vs. Advanced versions of the game.

WotC burned all of the bridges between themselves and me with 4E. I hope folks enjoy 5E but I'm not joining the migration. I'll stay with Pathfinder.

Quote from: Spinachcat;527098I doubt we will see 5e last longer than 4e or the 3e->3.5 timeframe. There is just too much money in new corebooks.

Heinsoo 4E -> 4E Essentials, lasted a bit over two years.  (June 2008 -> September 2010).

3E -> 3.5E, lasted almost three years.  (August 2000 -> July 2003).

If 5E isn't released in published paper book form, in principle they can keep on updating the rules every day.  (ie. Like software patches).  In such a scenario where the rulebooks are in the form of computer program, there would be no need for fractional editions (other than for bookkeeping purposes like software versions).

Quote from: Spinachcat;527098I would LOVE to see a return to a Basic vs. Advanced versions of the game.

One possible risk with such a split, is the basic game being regarded as the "kiddie" or "baby" version of the game.  (Many D&D players I gamed with back in the day, thought this way in regard to the AD&D vs. D&D product lines).

Quote from: ggroy;527249One possible risk with such a split, is the basic game being regarded as the "kiddie" or "baby" version of the game.  (Many D&D players I gamed with back in the day, thought this way in regard to the AD&D vs. D&D product lines).

This doesn't matter if it sells.

Quote from: ggroy;527249If 5E isn't released in published paper book form...

I don't see that happening. In fact, I would quite happily bet real money that 5e will be published in book form.

QuoteOne possible risk with such a split, is the basic game being regarded as the "kiddie" or "baby" version of the game.  (Many D&D players I gamed with back in the day, thought this way in regard to the AD&D vs. D&D product lines).

So? Don't try to fight it; embrace it! To my mind, the rationale behind having such a split would be have D&D boxed sets (simplified ruleset, miniatures, etc.) as a means of introducing new/younger players to the hobby, with the intention that they will eventually "graduate" to AD&D. Experienced players would, of course, skip the basic game and plunge straight into AD&D.

Quote from: Dodger;527252I don't see that happening. In fact, I would quite happily bet real money that 5e will be published in book form.

One possible strategy, would be to first release 5E D&D as a subscription DDI computer application.

Once they have the rules ironed out and debugged (whether several months to a year later), they can publish (on paper) a 5e "Rules Compendium" book (similar to the 4E Essentials Rules Compendium book) and a player book covering the classic classes (ie. fighter, rogue, wizard, cleric).

Quote from: ggroy;527249If 5E isn't released in published paper book form, in principle they can keep on updating the rules every day.

But if they sell you dead tree hardcovers AND online content, they can eat up even more cash. I regularly see PDF vs. Dead Tree threads where gamers say they happily buy both.

I can imagine the 5e core books becoming part of an online subscription service, but they will still be selling the dead tree versions too.

Or perhaps 5e will go OGL...

Quote from: Spinachcat;527325Or perhaps 5e will go OGL...

That would probably be the best ever thing for its longtime success like 3e with Pathfinder and derivatives like Fantasy Craft but I never see Wotc being allowed to do it, not with typical Hasbro operating procedure.  Hopefully we'll get something better than GSL, that I can realistically see.

Quote from: Spinachcat;527098I doubt we will see 5e last longer than 4e or the 3e->3.5 timeframe. There is just too much money in new corebooks.

Just ask college bookstores.  

JG

Quote from: James Gillen;527462Just ask college bookstores.  

JG

In the case of popular college textbooks, the biggest problem I've heard of over the years is that the second handed textbook market literally cannibalizes the sales of brand new copies of the same titles.  

This problem was greatly accelerated over the late 1990's, when used textbooks could be easily sold online.  (Before the internet became popular, the used textbook markets were typical more "localized" to a particular college campus or city).

Nobody has mentioned any hard numbers, but I've heard of a few authors mentioning that their royalty payments slowed down to a trickle (sometimes even to almost nothing), a year or two after a particular new edition of their popular textbook is published.  (I'll have to find the articles again).

For these reasons alone, it's not surprising as to why some popular textbooks have a new edition every 3 or 4 years, over the last 15+ years or so.  (Before the internet became popular, the time between editions were often 5+ years apart for some popular textbooks).

(EDIT:  For a few popular textbooks in recent years, the turnaround time for a new edition has been as fast as two or three years).

How much this used book market "cannibalization" is a problem for publishers of rpg books, is not entirely clear.  (ie.  Nobody saying much about it, and WotC not disclosing sales and print run figures).  The few titles I would guess where this could possibly be a significant problem, would be the core WotC D&D books.

Quote from: Rincewind1;5270393e was peak.

I thought there were supposedly as many as 24 million players in the '80s.  I thought I read that somewhere.  If true that would make 1e and/or BECMI much bigger sellers, wouldn't it?

Quote from: ggroy;527524In the case of popular college textbooks, the biggest problem I've heard of over the years is that the second handed textbook market literally cannibalizes the sales of brand new copies of the same titles.  

This problem was greatly accelerated over the late 1990's, when used textbooks could be easily sold online.  (Before the internet became popular, the used textbook markets were typical more "localized" to a particular college campus or city).

Nobody has mentioned any hard numbers, but I've heard of a few authors mentioning that their royalty payments slowed down to a trickle (sometimes even to almost nothing), a year or two after a particular new edition of their popular textbook is published.  (I'll have to find the articles again).

For these reasons alone, it's not surprising as to why some popular textbooks have a new edition every 3 or 4 years, over the last 15+ years or so.  (Before the internet became popular, the time between editions were often 5+ years apart for some popular textbooks).

(EDIT:  For a few popular textbooks in recent years, the turnaround time for a new edition has been as fast as two or three years).

How much this used book market "cannibalization" is a problem for publishers of rpg books, is not entirely clear.  (ie.  Nobody saying much about it, and WotC not disclosing sales and print run figures).  The few titles I would guess where this could possibly be a significant problem, would be the core WotC D&D books.

Having gone back to school recently I've found that the previous edition of a textbook tends to be almost exactly the same and about $100 cheaper.  The international editions are exactly the same but if the instructor is assigning homework out of the book you have to figure out which page the problem is on in your book because they purposely switch up the order.  The books I'm talking about were all about computer science topics.

Most students seem to still buy the current editions, but I don't know how many have financial aid for the bookstore.  That is a factor.  And as I'm going to a community college some of the students have jobs and therefore money and don't want to bother with saving money when they aren't sure the older or international version will be up to snuff.

Quote from: The Defenestrator;527545I thought there were supposedly as many as 24 million players in the '80s.  I thought I read that somewhere.  If true that would make 1e and/or BECMI much bigger sellers, wouldn't it?

I haven't heard any number like that, but I have heard from multiple places that Mentzer's Basic set was the best selling by a huge margin at over 1.5 million copies sold.

Quote from: The Defenestrator;527545I thought there were supposedly as many as 24 million players in the '80s.  I thought I read that somewhere.  If true that would make 1e and/or BECMI much bigger sellers, wouldn't it?

Both IMO. And you are right, all the numbers of D&D players are dwarfed by the 80s era's.

Where there is a point of contention is that there are those (mostly people who think of those games as "obsolete", not coincidentally) who believe this was SOLELY due to the "newness" of the hobby and that it cannot possibly be repeated, whereas there are others who believe this is at least in part because of the games themselves and their inherent qualities that this Golden era could exist in the first place.

I think the truth lies somewhere in between.

Quote from: Benoist;527555Both IMO. And you are right, all the numbers of D&D players are dwarfed by the 80s era's.

Where there is a point of contention is that there are those (mostly people who think of those games as "obsolete", not coincidentally) who believe this was SOLELY due to the "newness" of the hobby and that it cannot possibly be repeated, whereas there are others who believe this is at least in part because of the games themselves and their inherent qualities that this Golden era could exist in the first place.

I think the truth lies somewhere in between.

I also think technology has something to do with it.  In the 80s if you wanted your social fantasy/sci-fi gaming fix, you had to meet with friends face to face and play the tabletop.  Now all you have to do is plop over to your PC, log into WoW or whatever and play your social fantasy game that way.  Certainly this doesn't apply to everyone, but it impacts a lot of people.