What if the black death, the plague that wiped out ONE-THIRD of the population of Europe between 1348-1350, never happened?
What would that mean for the cultural and technological development of Europe?

RPGPundit

One argument put forth by some economic historians is that the black death had some POSITIVE effects on European economies, by

1) making land abundant
2) making capital abundant
3) making labour scarce

which in turn was a big helper with proto-capitalism and proto -industrialisation, and higher skilled labour; which in turn strenghtened the rights and self-image of the european citizenry/burghers. It also occured at a point of several centuries of constant poulation growth that made labour cheap and arable land scarce.

It´s complex, but maybe without the Black Death there might have been social conflicts in that direction. Stronger nobility, different development path for feudalism, possibly?
East-Elbian feudalism/grand manors were one such parallel development path.

Good points Sett. Demographic breakdowns seem to drive important political rearrangements (like arguably the fall of the Roman Empire). A longer life for feudalism makes sense.

On a religious/philosophical angle, the Catholic Church would have held a stronger position : the fact that the clergy suffered as much as the rest of population was a visible proof of their "wicked ways". Maybe Luther wouldn't have met the success he had? Maybe the materialist (thus heretic) philosophers would have had a harder time emerging in the following centuries?

The development of the germ theory of disease, medicine in general, and public sanitation would have been delayed by decades, if not longer.

Not saying I have any basis in fact for that, but it sounds feasible.

Re: Clergy,

Actually, the Roman Catholic church turned the second Black Death epidemic (17th century)  into a win for them: Every middle European Catholic Town has a "plague pillar". Basically, the plague was reinterpreted as being gods revenge for the reformation or somesuch. My memory is a bit sketchy in that area, one of the Czech Republic residents might enlighten us on that.

ADD: The economic development path strengthened by the Black Death in Western Europe was a slooooow affair. So maybe one should not overemphasize that. Still might be interesting adventure materiel.

Another Idea: Earlier colonization pressure?

I believe there's a theory amongst social historians that the Black Death also helped breakdown a lot of communal social forms and accelerated the growth of individualism.

Basically, the act of quarantining individual homes and insisting on limiting contact between physically and socially close groups, along with the trauma of the plague itself, weakened many older social forms. It also spread the tendancy for some elements of European society to really look for individual salvation and religious experience.

I'm butchering the work (it's been years since I read it) but I believe that 'After the Black Death' does a good job covering it.

Again, the preconditions are important. In already sparsely poulated areas, the effects were different, see Prussia & Poland in their grain exporting regions.


ADD: Oh, and the best,

Byzantium! A case could be made, if you are a "Byzanphile" that Constantinople might have lasted a tad longer. Alt-history with a kicking Byzantium is always preferrable.

I once read that Jews became scapegoats for the Black Death in many parts of Europe. Perhaps there would be less anti-Semitism without the plague?

Another issue to consider is the impact that the absence of the Black Death would have in the Hundred Years War and the Reconquista.

Quote from: JongWK;338434I once read that Jews became scapegoats for the Black Death in many parts of Europe. Perhaps there would be less anti-Semitism without the plague?

Another issue to consider is the impact that the absence of the Black Death would have in the Hundred Years War and the Reconquista.

The jews were the scapegoats of everything in Europe, both before and after.  I doubt it would have substantially changed their terrible fate in the 20th century.

Quote from: Fiasco;338445The jews were the scapegoats of everything in Europe, both before and after.  I doubt it would have substantially changed their terrible fate in the 20th century.

Agreed. But they wouldn't have relocated massively in Poland, the most tolerant country of the time.

More conflict. There were too many people on too little land. Peasant rebellions were rife before the Black Death. So there'd be more of them (hunger makes you angry at those who exist purely by the sweat of your brow, eg nobles), and more mass migration of peoples into less densely-settled land, eg Poland and Ukraine.

More practice of homosexuality due to denser cities. Homosexuality tends to rise in frequency with population densities. (Studies with rats and mice have shown VERY strong links between population density and homosexual preference. Studies with primates have been weaker but still show some links.)

Also, friary (as opposed to monasticism) really gets quite a boost from the black death... as friars were working with the people during the worst of it. The  4 major orders of friars, orders of friars preacher (Dominicans), friars of Our Lady of Mount Carmel (Carmelites), friars minor (Franciscans), and Friars of St Augustin's Rule (Agustinians) really got a major propaganda coups by their efforts during the black death, resulting in lots more vocations afterwards. All four orders of friars were established formally in the early 13th century, tho the augustinians existed as separate mendicant communities prior. An interesting side note tho: I've read that dominicans, due to their rule of life, tended to not suffer nearly as much from the plague as the communities around them... due to rules of cleanliness. No scraps, no rats. No Rats, no cats. No rats nor cats, far fewer fleas. Plus, they slept individually in private cells. So friary would probably take longer to become well established in the public eye, and many major 14th century and 15th century theologians arose in the mendicant orders.

Also, with the loss of the rise of isolation of families and individuals caused by plague, one loses some of the drive to explain how god lets such bad happen... which in turn lead several dominicans and carmelites to odd theologumenia, which in turn lead to dissent in the clerical sphere in the 1500's... which lead to Luther, Zwingley, and other protestant reformers major heresies.

QuoteMore practice of homosexuality due to denser cities. Homosexuality tends to rise in frequency with population densities. (Studies with rats and mice have shown VERY strong links between population density and homosexual preference. Studies with primates have been weaker but still show some links.)

Pardon me?

Quote from: Settembrini;338564Pardon me?

I have a sudden urge to Godwin the thread.

As Sett mentioned upthread common labourers as well as craftsmen were able to largely name their own prices for work after labour became scarce due to the plague, so the lack of the Black Death may well extend the age of feudalism and Noble right.

Wasn't the thing with the Jews that their religious practices made them more hygenic than the average Christian and thus less likely to catch the plague, and people noticed that fewer Jews caught the plague, proportionately, than Christians, and assumed that this must be because Jews were in fact behind it all?