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Author Topic: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.  (Read 100808 times)

jeff37923

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #900 on: July 03, 2022, 12:05:58 AM »
People are sick and tired of living in failed blue states and are migrating en masse to red states where crime is under control because nobody decided to defund the police when a fucking junkie got killed. How are those democrat cities doing, Battlefailure? How has the crime rate dropped?

The crime rate in red states and cities is also up, though. I see an analysis from Pew Research for 2020, though I haven't seen a general update for 2021 yet.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/27/what-we-know-about-the-increase-in-u-s-murders-in-2020/

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2022/02/09/lawmakers-target-rise-in-violent-crime-arizona-rates-remain-above-u-s/

The states that had the highest percent increase in crime in 2020 were Montana (+84%), South Dakota (+81%), Delaware (+62%) and Kentucky (+61%). California had a higher percentage increase than Texas - but even with the higher increase, Texas still has a higher per-capita murder rate than California. So that hardly explains the migration.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm


The real news about in-state migration is telecommuting. Since the pandemic, a huge number of jobs have gone to remote. People are then moving out of expensive cities and states (where the jobs are generally based) and moving to lower-cost cities and states.

Cherry-picked sources again, jhkim? Just please stop it with the lies.

So let's get back to having this thread discuss what is happening in the Ukraine. We have a multitude of threads talking about the US, put your thoughts in to one of those.
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jhkim

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #901 on: July 03, 2022, 02:21:34 AM »
Notice how they always try the 'percentage' game when they want to talk about how bad the murder rate went up in a rural state like Montana...   ;)

I'm not sure where they got the numbers though because according to the state government website Montana had 41 Murder/manslaughter incidents in 2019 and 51 of them in 2020...unless they only factored in 'specifically' murder in which case the overall total is obviously even lower than the 51.  Also interesting that the 2018 total was also 41 and in 2021 it dropped back to 33 total...wonder what the percentage drop for the specifically 'murder' quantities were,,,

https://dataportal.mt.gov/t/MBCC/views/CIM-ViolentCrime/Dash_Main_ViolentCrime?iframeSizedToWindow=true&%3Aembed=y&%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link

The homicide numbers are different on the Montana MBCC site and on the CDC site. In raw number of crimes/deaths, when I look at three sources, I see: 

2020: 51 for MBCC, 65 for CDC, 57 for FBI
2019: 41 for MBCC, 39 for CDC, 37 for FBI
2018: 41 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 39 for FBI
2017: 34 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 41 for FBI

This from the CDC site that I originally cited, and comparing to the FBI's crime data explorer.

https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/shr

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

I'm not sure of the differences here, but I also don't think that's the point.

The claim was that red states were not seeing a crime increase, while blue states were. As far as I can tell, that's not the case. Crime has been increasing all over the country, and it doesn't look to me like there is any correlation with red vs blue state from any of these sources. If you've got a source that says that red states aren't seeing increases, I'd love to see it.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2022, 02:23:52 AM by jhkim »

jeff37923

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #902 on: July 03, 2022, 03:51:32 AM »
Notice how they always try the 'percentage' game when they want to talk about how bad the murder rate went up in a rural state like Montana...   ;)

I'm not sure where they got the numbers though because according to the state government website Montana had 41 Murder/manslaughter incidents in 2019 and 51 of them in 2020...unless they only factored in 'specifically' murder in which case the overall total is obviously even lower than the 51.  Also interesting that the 2018 total was also 41 and in 2021 it dropped back to 33 total...wonder what the percentage drop for the specifically 'murder' quantities were,,,

https://dataportal.mt.gov/t/MBCC/views/CIM-ViolentCrime/Dash_Main_ViolentCrime?iframeSizedToWindow=true&%3Aembed=y&%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link

The homicide numbers are different on the Montana MBCC site and on the CDC site. In raw number of crimes/deaths, when I look at three sources, I see: 

2020: 51 for MBCC, 65 for CDC, 57 for FBI
2019: 41 for MBCC, 39 for CDC, 37 for FBI
2018: 41 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 39 for FBI
2017: 34 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 41 for FBI

This from the CDC site that I originally cited, and comparing to the FBI's crime data explorer.

https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/shr

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

I'm not sure of the differences here, but I also don't think that's the point.

The claim was that red states were not seeing a crime increase, while blue states were. As far as I can tell, that's not the case. Crime has been increasing all over the country, and it doesn't look to me like there is any correlation with red vs blue state from any of these sources. If you've got a source that says that red states aren't seeing increases, I'd love to see it.

OK, Groomer.
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moonsweeper

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #903 on: July 03, 2022, 10:21:12 AM »
Notice how they always try the 'percentage' game when they want to talk about how bad the murder rate went up in a rural state like Montana...   ;)

I'm not sure where they got the numbers though because according to the state government website Montana had 41 Murder/manslaughter incidents in 2019 and 51 of them in 2020...unless they only factored in 'specifically' murder in which case the overall total is obviously even lower than the 51.  Also interesting that the 2018 total was also 41 and in 2021 it dropped back to 33 total...wonder what the percentage drop for the specifically 'murder' quantities were,,,

https://dataportal.mt.gov/t/MBCC/views/CIM-ViolentCrime/Dash_Main_ViolentCrime?iframeSizedToWindow=true&%3Aembed=y&%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link

The homicide numbers are different on the Montana MBCC site and on the CDC site. In raw number of crimes/deaths, when I look at three sources, I see: 

2020: 51 for MBCC, 65 for CDC, 57 for FBI
2019: 41 for MBCC, 39 for CDC, 37 for FBI
2018: 41 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 39 for FBI
2017: 34 for MBCC, 42 for CDC, 41 for FBI

This from the CDC site that I originally cited, and comparing to the FBI's crime data explorer.

https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/shr

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

I'm not sure of the differences here, but I also don't think that's the point.

The claim was that red states were not seeing a crime increase, while blue states were. As far as I can tell, that's not the case. Crime has been increasing all over the country, and it doesn't look to me like there is any correlation with red vs blue state from any of these sources. If you've got a source that says that red states aren't seeing increases, I'd love to see it.

Actually, the claim was (bolding mine)...

People are sick and tired of living in failed blue states and are migrating en masse to red states where crime is under control because nobody decided to defund the police when a fucking junkie got killed. How are those democrat cities doing, Battlefailure? How has the crime rate dropped?

which doesn't specify that it isn't going up...a more interesting metric is crime per capita, but that won't fit your narrative either...and zooming in on 'red states' to compare how the state looks minus the blue areas (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton in my case, or Indianapolis and East Chicago just next door) is going to look even worse...

----

Please feel free to return to the Ukraine conversation.  It has been very entertaining.
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jhkim

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #904 on: July 03, 2022, 02:10:18 PM »
The claim was that red states were not seeing a crime increase, while blue states were. As far as I can tell, that's not the case. Crime has been increasing all over the country, and it doesn't look to me like there is any correlation with red vs blue state from any of these sources. If you've got a source that says that red states aren't seeing increases, I'd love to see it.

Actually, the claim was (bolding mine)...

People are sick and tired of living in failed blue states and are migrating en masse to red states where crime is under control because nobody decided to defund the police when a fucking junkie got killed. How are those democrat cities doing, Battlefailure? How has the crime rate dropped?

which doesn't specify that it isn't going up...a more interesting metric is crime per capita, but that won't fit your narrative either...and zooming in on 'red states' to compare how the state looks minus the blue areas (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton in my case, or Indianapolis and East Chicago just next door) is going to look even worse...

I was looking at crime per capita, and it doesn't fit any hyper-partisan narrative. Your claim is that red states have crime under control, yet as I stated, Texas still has a higher per-capita murder rate than California.

In general, big cities have higher crime rates - and bigger cities tend to skew Democrat. However, among cities of similar population, there doesn't seem to be any strong correlation of blue/red vs crime rate. For example, as red-leaning big cities, Jacksonville and Fort Worth have as high a crime rate as similarly-sized cities.

Battlemaster
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #905 on: July 03, 2022, 02:34:56 PM »
Hey Jhk, since you're on a good roll disputing rigged abd biased statistics I thought I'd sing out with another case of how figures can lie because liars can figure.

You hear about 'average' income in murka from fox news, but here's the thing: in modern murka average income doesn't mean a damn thing because averages are meaningless when the data points are totally skewed.

Take some oligarch that has 100 billion dollars. Put him in a room with 99 people who have nothing. The 'agerage' person has 1 billion dollars.

99% of the people in a that room have nothing, one has so much he destroyed the validity of averaging.

(Then you grab the oligarch by the throat and force him to give everyone else in the room a billion dollars each to make the average accurate.  ;) )

The way to get a useful ideas of wealth in modern murka is to take the median, not the average.



Fuck the fascist right and the fascist left.

KindaMeh

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #906 on: July 03, 2022, 02:46:52 PM »
I sorta feel like the secession movement in Ukraine didn’t necessarily speak for everyone or even (and this is important) necessarily the majority throughout the land and all the individual municipalities and parts of it they wanted to have be seceded as a bloc. Some of that undermines its legitimacy to me.

 I also don’t often think secession is the answer as opposed to decentralization and allowing for differences of opinion and local rule within a system, as noted in the US Balkanization thread.

Also, sometimes citizens want to take away both their own and other citizen’s rights and liberties that should be enshrined and protected against infringement within a constitution. I don’t think any vote, even a simple majority vote, for a part of the US to join China, for instance, would be as valid as a decision to rule itself with liberties and natural rights in mind. Because that would involve using tyranny of the majority to strip away liberties and protections against government oppression that are guaranteed. Likewise, joining Russia means surrendering liberties and to some degree self-rule. (In part because Putin doesn’t actually allow opposition parties and representatives a chance to succeed.) So even the argument by “self-rule” that some apologias for secession are founded upon rings a bit hollow there to me. Also, isn’t the point of a Constitution in part to prevent tyranny of the majority trampling liberties and the like? I dunno if simple majority is enough to justify a secession that would strip away rights and democracy.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2022, 07:26:23 PM by KindaMeh »

DocJones

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #907 on: July 03, 2022, 07:16:58 PM »
You hear about 'average' income in murka from fox news, but here's the thing: in modern murka average income doesn't mean a damn thing because averages are meaningless when the data points are totally skewed.
Government statistics report both 'median income' and 'average income'. 
But math impaired people will often cite 'median income' while calling it 'average income'.
For example in 2020, the average household income was $97,026.
The median household income which is what most report (including Fox Business news) was $67,521.




« Last Edit: July 03, 2022, 07:36:41 PM by DocJones »

oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #908 on: July 03, 2022, 11:24:10 PM »
  Some people, as noted, do not realize median and average are not the same word.

Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #909 on: July 03, 2022, 11:32:40 PM »
Government statistics report both 'median income' and 'average income'. 
But math impaired people will often cite 'median income' while calling it 'average income'.
Not quite correct. While it is true that that when most people say "average", they really mean the "mean", the word "average" can also refer to the median, or even the mode. That's because "average" is not a mathematically precise term. If you want to be precise, use mean or median, not average.

But I agree with your general point that the error usually happens with the person interpreting the data. Most formal stats, government or not, are very clear about which version is being used. And for a lot of aggregate numbers, they favor the median because it's the best way to represent the typical person. Battlemaster is correct that the mean can be highly atypical if there are extreme outliers.

I

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #910 on: July 04, 2022, 12:40:38 AM »
Likewise, joining Russia means surrendering liberties and to some degree self-rule. (In part because Putin doesn’t actually allow opposition parties and representatives a chance to succeed.) So even the argument by “self-rule” that some apologias for secession are founded upon rings a bit hollow there to me.

Considering that Zelensky doesn't allow opposition parties or a free press, that's kind of a moot point:

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-nationalizes-tv-news-restricts-173820471.html

He's also a puppet installed by a foreign government (the U.S.).   For three years Democrats tried to convince the country that Trump was a Russian puppet, and was therefore an illegitimate president.  So... unlike Trump, Zelensky really IS a foreign-controlled puppet; why does he have any legitimacy? 

KindaMeh

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #911 on: July 04, 2022, 02:40:54 AM »
Likewise, joining Russia means surrendering liberties and to some degree self-rule. (In part because Putin doesn’t actually allow opposition parties and representatives a chance to succeed.) So even the argument by “self-rule” that some apologias for secession are founded upon rings a bit hollow there to me.

Considering that Zelensky doesn't allow opposition parties or a free press, that's kind of a moot point:

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-nationalizes-tv-news-restricts-173820471.html

He's also a puppet installed by a foreign government (the U.S.).   For three years Democrats tried to convince the country that Trump was a Russian puppet, and was therefore an illegitimate president.  So... unlike Trump, Zelensky really IS a foreign-controlled puppet; why does he have any legitimacy?

Pretty sure my post referenced the secession movement prior to the start of Russia’s invasion primarily with that reasoning, where it would still be valid.

That said, even with twisted and undemocratic restrictions being placed on pro-Russian parties Ukraine still has a (now limited) democracy. Russia is pretty clearly in Putin’s pocket permanently until he dies, (which he may soon) at which point others within his regime inherit power autocratically. Zelensky has term limits, and there are elections, even if apparently liberty is being curtailed and to some degree full freedom of choice shat on.

Likewise, receiving some foreign aid in achieving a political position is not a crime, nor does it invalidate a win if direct ILLEGAL vote changing does not occur enough to shift who wins. The Democrats were full of shit and Trump argued even some degree of collusion would not be a crime. For the most part I agree. Having help winning does not make you any less the chosen leader of a democratic nation.

Also, I think it sketchy to conclude Zelensky is Joe Biden’s puppet. For a puppet he sure makes a whole lot of demands, and had been telling the US/NATO to stay out of things, not assemble on the border, and not escalate prior to the Russian invasion. Likewise, I have yet to see proof he takes direct orders in all things from the US government. Helping someone you think will be useful in their opinions get elected is not the same as actively suborning, puppeting, and ordering around a blank slate/foreign agent.

Again, too, I am not sure a simple majority vote for secession to autocracy that is against both the law and constitutional principles of liberty is legit. Even if it were somehow a majority vote within an area which I doubt it would be, without the majority support of each and every one of the municipalities that would be counted as “seceding”, seems kinda sketch. I also question a people’s right to oppress or choose autocracy via majority vote more generally, whether it be accession to Russian autocratic domination, or yes, also Zelensky’s weakening of the opposition via acquired war powers/popular support.

Also, on an unrelated note, Russia sabotaged Ukraine’s armaments decades in advance in preparation for invasion, and so to say Ukraine, which hadn’t even been accepted as a NATO candidate, was invaded purely to defend Russia seems dishonest to me. Especially given that Putin’s regime seemed to not want a big or solid democracy next to it in general, and his messaging seemed to see Ukraine as rightfully a part of Russia’s autocratic empire. Maybe clearer messaging that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO would have averted the attack, but I kinda doubt it.

Heck, even if that were the “reason”, Ukraine as the defender seems to me like the preferable side to support. Both because screw autocratic wars of expansion, and what the hell kind of precedent is the US setting if it totally abandons a country it promised to defend in exactly this situation, among other things. Including the precedent that would be set for China taking Taiwan with little consequence and actions of the like if the US had levied no sanctions.

I had more to say, but it’s getting late and I’ve kinda lost my train of thought.

I

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #912 on: July 04, 2022, 02:41:53 PM »

Also, I think it sketchy to conclude Zelensky is Joe Biden’s puppet.


We literally have Victoria Nuland on audio discusssing who the U.S. is going to install.  Biden's a senile puppet of Obama's clique, and Zelensky's their puppet too.  That Zelensky doesn't take orders as well as his U.S. masters would like -- and they are frustrated with him for that -- doesn't mean that they didn't install him.  We know that they did; it's not a conspiracy theory, but fact.


Both because screw autocratic wars of expansion, and what the hell kind of precedent is the US setting if it totally abandons a country it promised to defend in exactly this situation, among other things. Including the precedent that would be set for China taking Taiwan with little consequence and actions of the like if the US had levied no sanctions.


Like the precedent Joe set when he abandoned Afghanistan?  Abandoning a bunch of friends there, even Americans?  He couldn't wait to get out of there.  Now, I support getting out, but let's not pretend he didn't set a bad example.  He ran because he's not been grifting millions of dollars out of Afghanistan, whereas in Ukraine he has -- his support has been bought and paid for.  He's making money there while he's spending our money.  His son didn't sit on the board of an Afghan energy company, while he does sit on the board of a Ukrainian one, and Joe gets 10% of the take. And Joe threatened their foreign aid if they didn't stop looking into that corruption.  You'd think he'd WANT to keep sending foreign aid to Ukraine if they're such a great ally and Russia is such a threat, and for nothing in return, but nope, all he cared about was Hunter's phony "job."

Joe's also been bought off by the Chinese, so he's not gonna do shit if Taiwan gets invaded.  Have you not heard the "I think you're clear" conference call between Joe, Hunter and other parties after one of Hunter's "associates" was arrested?   It's the kind of conversation that bank robbers have, not sincere world leaders.  Biden's corporate donors like Amazon, Disney, etc. do too much business with China to let him do anything significant to them.  They do next to no business with Russia.  We mainly get stuff like fertilizer for our crops from Russia and they don't give a shit about that, but the flow of cheap plastic crap from China and selling our shitty movies to China makes them a lot of money, and they won't allow their man in the White House to interrupt the cash flow.

Shrieking Banshee

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #913 on: July 04, 2022, 04:27:56 PM »
That Zelensky doesn't take orders as well as his U.S. masters would like -- and they are frustrated with him for that -- doesn't mean that they didn't install him.  We know that they did; it's not a conspiracy theory, but fact.

Well the case is that there are allot of fingers in this soup. I wish Ukraine was better prepared, and had better leadership and a more active population. But its not. And thats the reality that people living there just have to deal with. Do the people living there deserve to live in fear (or just die in fear) of Russian bombs because Putins lust for control, was understimated?

And the current reality is of bombs being lobbed on mass against people who didn't even have anything to do with the separatist question in the first place. And the separatists are also being funded by Russia as well, so there is absolutely no 'good' players (if there ever could be ones) in this equation.

The way people talk about this, its as if like China invaded Calefornia, well then its all OK, since both China and the USA are both corrupt, and some of Calefornia wanted to join China anyway.

And this is all just stupid time and life wasting between two countries with some of the lowest birthrates in Europe!


KindaMeh

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #914 on: July 04, 2022, 04:36:06 PM »

Also, I think it sketchy to conclude Zelensky is Joe Biden’s puppet.


We literally have Victoria Nuland on audio discusssing who the U.S. is going to install.  Biden's a senile puppet of Obama's clique, and Zelensky's their puppet too.  That Zelensky doesn't take orders as well as his U.S. masters would like -- and they are frustrated with him for that -- doesn't mean that they didn't install him.  We know that they did; it's not a conspiracy theory, but fact.


Both because screw autocratic wars of expansion, and what the hell kind of precedent is the US setting if it totally abandons a country it promised to defend in exactly this situation, among other things. Including the precedent that would be set for China taking Taiwan with little consequence and actions of the like if the US had levied no sanctions.


Like the precedent Joe set when he abandoned Afghanistan?  Abandoning a bunch of friends there, even Americans?  He couldn't wait to get out of there.  Now, I support getting out, but let's not pretend he didn't set a bad example.  He ran because he's not been grifting millions of dollars out of Afghanistan, whereas in Ukraine he has -- his support has been bought and paid for.  He's making money there while he's spending our money.  His son didn't sit on the board of an Afghan energy company, while he does sit on the board of a Ukrainian one, and Joe gets 10% of the take. And Joe threatened their foreign aid if they didn't stop looking into that corruption.  You'd think he'd WANT to keep sending foreign aid to Ukraine if they're such a great ally and Russia is such a threat, and for nothing in return, but nope, all he cared about was Hunter's phony "job."

Joe's also been bought off by the Chinese, so he's not gonna do shit if Taiwan gets invaded.  Have you not heard the "I think you're clear" conference call between Joe, Hunter and other parties after one of Hunter's "associates" was arrested?   It's the kind of conversation that bank robbers have, not sincere world leaders.  Biden's corporate donors like Amazon, Disney, etc. do too much business with China to let him do anything significant to them.  They do next to no business with Russia.  We mainly get stuff like fertilizer for our crops from Russia and they don't give a shit about that, but the flow of cheap plastic crap from China and selling our shitty movies to China makes them a lot of money, and they won't allow their man in the White House to interrupt the cash flow.

I stand by my expanded position on how helping someone win an election does not make them your puppet. As well as my musings on the democratic “right” to choose authoritarianism and the sketchiness of the Ukrainian secession movement.

Supporting someone in an election, even if you have full confidence your support could tip the balance, (as MANY countries must believe else they would not bother with political operations in other nations)  just means you supported somebody who supports your interests.

Lobbyists, citizen activist groups, and corporations on both sides do that in the US at every level, and while I would agree it has a negative impact often in the cases when it makes it easier for folks to get funding and support without supporting the broader interests of the public, generally support follows a candidate’s professed policy and not as typically vice versa. I still think we have a democracy here, and our leaders are for the most part not literal puppets. (Though we could do much better.)

100% agree on Afghanistan. Total clusterfuck, even if we mostly got out American citizens or whatever, we screwed over everybody left behind. Leaving in the way we did was a mistake. Deserved more mention on this thread. Thank you for bringing it up.

Mostly agree on China, especially the damn corporate interests and not really needing them as much as people think. (I do like entrepreneurship and small businesses, but am skeptical of things like megacorps and elite capture, especially given recent woke corporate trends.) Kinda think the TPP might have helped shift us away from reliance, but a neoliberal multilateral deal under the WTO is still enough for me to have been skeptical of it.

On Taiwan, our alliances and cetera, we could definitely have a better record. Tho Biden at least had the bark (we’ll see if there’s any teeth beneath his flapping gums) to recently claim we’d support Taiwan directly militarily if China invaded.

Regarding Biden being corrupt, I think much like how Trump threatened/tried to cut and delay support to Ukraine if they didn’t find stuff on Biden, Biden was of course gonna threaten (Can I have a link to share with more liberal folk I know? Thanks for the heads-up.) if they actively went after him or his reputation.

Biden seems pretty darn corrupt, or at the very least Hunter is and his dad’s obfuscating, which is still corrupt. But that’s sadly starting to look more par for the course politically regarding character these days. I plan on maybe voting third party, leaning moderate right (?), but we’ll see how things progress and if my hatred for Biden’s policy rises enough to overcome my dislike for the current establishment in politics. Wish DeSantis was planning on running, too, because I feel like that would give folks a superior right wing option.

I’m going off topic, but yeah.