Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.

[Pat]

There's something wrong with chart DocJones posted. It shows the inflation-adjusted price as being almost totally flat (the gray/blue), between 2002 and 2020, only spiking in 2021. It's averaged per year, so it should be close to the chart I posted, which is also averaged per year. But mine shows big spikes in 2008 and 2012. Kim's is weekly rather than yearly so it fluctuates more, but shows the same rough outline, with spikes in 2008 and 2012.

If you look DocJones' AlexWise chart, the yellow follows the same pattern as the other two charts. So it looks like the yellow at least approximates the inflation-adjusted curve. But it could also be the nominal price curve, because that's similar to the inflation-adjusted curve, just flatter. But the gray bars are still flat (with a minor peak in 2002, of all years), and can't be either. I don't know what it represents, and it doesn't seem worth the effort to suss out.

[jhkim]

There's something wrong with chart DocJones posted. It shows the inflation-adjusted price as being almost totally flat (the gray/blue), between 2002 and 2020, only spiking in 2021. It's averaged per year, so it should be close to the chart I posted, which is also averaged per year. But mine shows big spikes in 2008 and 2012. Kim's is weekly rather than yearly so it fluctuates more, but shows the same rough outline, with spikes in 2008 and 2012.

If you look DocJones' AlexWise chart, the yellow follows the same pattern as the other two charts. So it looks like the yellow at least approximates the inflation-adjusted curve. But it could also be the nominal price curve, because that's similar to the inflation-adjusted curve, just flatter. But the gray bars are still flat (with a minor peak in 2002, of all years), and can't be either. I don't know what it represents, and it doesn't seem worth the effort to suss out.

The graph I posted is not inflation-adjusted. So it'll be biased to be lower in the past overall, but should show the same year-to-year shape and my graph only went back to 2002.

In the Axlewise infographic, the blue is labelled as the inflation-adjusted prices which I agree don't make sense. In the other graph that DocJones linked to at usinflationcalculator.com, they explain their calculation as factoring in the CPI for gasoline rather than overall inflation. But as far as I can tell, that intentionally creates a flat line. The gas CPI is affected by gas prices, so taking gas prices and dividing by gas CPI gives roughly a flat number.

I would think "inflation-adjusted" should just be multiplying by the overall conversion of X year dollars to Y year dollars, rather than the gasoline-specific CPI. I think your graph is doing, Pat.

I'll comment more about causation in a separate post.

[Pat]

I would think "inflation-adjusted" should just be multiplying by the overall conversion of X year dollars to Y year dollars, rather than the gasoline-specific CPI. I think your graph is doing, Pat.

It's not. See the note at the bottom, it's using the CPI-U. That's the Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers, which covers 93% of the US population. So it's the most widely used index.

[jhkim]

In general, the specific question of gasoline prices is what caused the fluctuations seen. Are gas prices changes primarily due to environmental policy like cancellation of the Keystone pipeline? Or are they caused more by other factors, with environmental policy being only a secondary influence?

Factually, there was a massive drop in gas prices during the last two years of the Obama presidency. This is referred to as the "fracking dip" in Pat's article. Prices then rose during Trump's first two years, then fluctuated down and then up again before plunging in early 2020, then rising slightly to a plateau in later 2020, then rising steadily over 2021 and then rising further in 2022.

It seems to me that the drop in 2014 was caused by the technology jump in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, as the article implies.

The next big price drop under Trump in spring 2020 wasn't caused by Trump's pro-drilling or pro-Keystone policy, but by the pandemic. Both the recession and the massive drop in fuel demand caused by telecommuting and reduction in tourism and business travel.

The question is, what caused the rise in prices after the pandemic drop? Among the influences would be:

1) Increased fuel use as commuting and travel go back to pre-pandemic levels

2) Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline

3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia


I'm not claiming that the Keystone cancellation had no effect, but the other causes seem at least as significant. There was no drop in gas prices in early 2017 when Trump became president, despite immediate action on the pipeline.

[Mistwell]

So let me see if I follow the jhkim part of this thread.

A graphic was posted showing inflation adjusted gas prices which implied Democrats Bad, Republicans Good.

jhkim questions it as it looks wonky because the numbers don't seem to be consistent with each other.

He's told to use a specific inflation calculator to see that it's correct.

He uses that inflation calculator that he's asked to use, and that very calculator verifies exactly what jhkim says. That the graphic was wonky and not accurate. No matter what base year you choose, there is no way to get that graphic because regardless of base year chosen the graphic doesn't seem to consistently follow.

Another chart is posted and people claim it shows a drop in oil prices when Trump took office.

jhkim points out the chart shows rather a drop in prices under Obama, and actually a rise in prices under Trump the first two years. As if people hadn't noticed the years at the bottom of that very chart.

Instead of addressing any of this - where jhkim is using the very inflation calculator and chart he's asked to use and shows conclusively the assertions made using those calculators and charts do not in fact prove the thing they were being used to prove, he's:

1) just blanket called a liar (no basis, no context, no connection to the discussion that just took place, just called a liar);
2) a new chart is thrown up, with no attempt to address the calculator and prior chart that had been posted and jhkim addressed. Just straight-up moving target tactic.

Do I have that right? Because damn, that's some really poor debating right there if I have that right.

I threw up the new chart. It was my first post on the subject. I never addressed jkim's chart in any way, I only addressed a very blatant and specific falsehood.

And you're claiming I'm moving the target.

That's really poor debating on your part.

The reason I threw up the new chart is because I looked at both previous charts, and they seemed to be severely lacking. Kim's chart doesn't say whether it's inflation adjusted or not, and the links at the bottom of the page just link to current prices, not historical data. It might be buried somewhere in the US  Energy's Administration's page, but the St. Louis Fed did a bad job of footnoting and sourcing.

DocJones' chart seems better, at least on the surface. It is inflated adjusted, and gives a year (2020). But it's a really weird and ugly chart, and hard to read.

So I provided an alternative, that's current, sourced, in a more familiar format, and covers a much wider historical range.

Edit: Incidentally, here are the references in the graph posted by DocJones:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50758
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01122022.htm
Edit: Fixed second link.

OK that all makes sense. Thank you for the clarification.

[Pat]

1) Increased fuel use as commuting and travel go back to pre-pandemic levels

2) Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline

3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia

1) is garbage. Travel was starting to rise 15-18 months ago. Unless you can show there was a sudden surge in travel just before prices spiked, it's not directly related.

And the other two would be the factors we've already discussed, except you missed one: Biden also suspended the oil drilling leases in Alaska.

All three reasons are the direct result of Biden's actions.

[3catcircus]

1) Increased fuel use as commuting and travel go back to pre-pandemic levels

2) Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline

3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia

1) is garbage. Travel was starting to rise 15-18 months ago. Unless you can show there was a sudden surge in travel just before prices spiked, it's not directly related.

And the other two would be the factors we've already discussed, except you missed one: Biden also suspended the oil drilling leases in Alaska.

All three reasons are the direct result of Biden's actions.

There's also the fact that shit-for-brains campaigned on a platform of doing away with oil and gas.  Why would any sane oil company CEO invest in trying to increase refinery capacity or exploration when regulation makes it nearly impossible to drill or build new refineries and when the administration's campaign promises are being taken at face value, which would result in them being left holding millions of gallons of unsellable fuel and refineries that would be idle?

Just like every other leftists pipedream, they fail to understand the practicalities associated with the nature of human behavior in the lens of game theory.

[Pat]

1) Increased fuel use as commuting and travel go back to pre-pandemic levels

2) Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline

3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia

1) is garbage. Travel was starting to rise 15-18 months ago. Unless you can show there was a sudden surge in travel just before prices spiked, it's not directly related.

And the other two would be the factors we've already discussed, except you missed one: Biden also suspended the oil drilling leases in Alaska.

All three reasons are the direct result of Biden's actions.

There's also the fact that shit-for-brains campaigned on a platform of doing away with oil and gas.  Why would any sane oil company CEO invest in trying to increase refinery capacity or exploration when regulation makes it nearly impossible to drill or build new refineries and when the administration's campaign promises are being taken at face value, which would result in them being left holding millions of gallons of unsellable fuel and refineries that would be idle?

Just like every other leftists pipedream, they fail to understand the practicalities associated with the nature of human behavior in the lens of game theory.

Pete Buttigieg just threatened to force airlines to hire more employees, because of the recent disruptions. They're talking about "stress tests", as if the airlines were too big to fail banks.

It's insane. The government just forced the airlines to fire lots of their employees who weren't vaccinated. Now we have a shortage, and Perpetual Paternity Leave Pete's flight was canceled and he had to (shocked face) drive from Washington to NYC, so that means the government must interfere again! This is equivalent to someone hearing a story about a business, or having one bad experience, saying "they oughta...", and then the companies are forced to act on their uninformed, spur of the moment pronouncement. No business can operate in a regulatory (or executive) environment like that. They can't make any long term plans, around the constant meddling.

[jeff37923]

So let me see if I follow the jhkim part of this thread.

A graphic was posted showing inflation adjusted gas prices which implied Democrats Bad, Republicans Good.

jhkim questions it as it looks wonky because the numbers don't seem to be consistent with each other.

He's told to use a specific inflation calculator to see that it's correct.

He uses that inflation calculator that he's asked to use, and that very calculator verifies exactly what jhkim says. That the graphic was wonky and not accurate. No matter what base year you choose, there is no way to get that graphic because regardless of base year chosen the graphic doesn't seem to consistently follow.

Another chart is posted and people claim it shows a drop in oil prices when Trump took office.

jhkim points out the chart shows rather a drop in prices under Obama, and actually a rise in prices under Trump the first two years. As if people hadn't noticed the years at the bottom of that very chart.

Instead of addressing any of this - where jhkim is using the very inflation calculator and chart he's asked to use and shows conclusively the assertions made using those calculators and charts do not in fact prove the thing they were being used to prove, he's:

1) just blanket called a liar (no basis, no context, no connection to the discussion that just took place, just called a liar);
2) a new chart is thrown up, with no attempt to address the calculator and prior chart that had been posted and jhkim addressed. Just straight-up moving target tactic.

Do I have that right? Because damn, that's some really poor debating right there if I have that right.

Like jhkim, "You drink from a camelback of lies" - Kill Team Kill

Seriously, just save it for someone who will buy into your bullshit. A lot of the readers here just aren't believing either you or jhkim anymore.

[DocJones]

The base year should just be a choice of what units to report in, though. The inflation-adjusted graph should be the same shape regardless of what base year one chooses. It's just that all the numbers would be adjusted by a fixed proportion. For example, according to usinflationcalculator, the conversion from 2020 dollars to 2021 dollars is 4.7%. So we should be able to convert from 2020 dollars to 2021 dollars by applying a factor of 1.047 on everything.

I can't apply a factor of x1.047 to the Axlewise graph to get the inflationcalculator graph. The Axlewise infographic has completely different *shape* from the usinflationcalculator graph.

No.  The base numbers, the calculations, and the graph scales should be optimized to prove the point one is trying to make.
;-)

[DocJones]

The question is, what caused the rise in prices after the pandemic drop? Among the influences would be:

1) Increased fuel use as commuting and travel go back to pre-pandemic levels

2) Biden's cancellation of the Keystone pipeline

3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia

The Keystone XL cancellation can't be the cause of prices since it was never operational.
Oil prices had rose quite dramatically (29%) from October to December 2021.   Before a Ukraine.
Oil is a commodity and the price of oil is what speculators believe it to be....
...which of course could be fears of all of the above and other factors.

[Mistwell]

So let me see if I follow the jhkim part of this thread.

A graphic was posted showing inflation adjusted gas prices which implied Democrats Bad, Republicans Good.

jhkim questions it as it looks wonky because the numbers don't seem to be consistent with each other.

He's told to use a specific inflation calculator to see that it's correct.

He uses that inflation calculator that he's asked to use, and that very calculator verifies exactly what jhkim says. That the graphic was wonky and not accurate. No matter what base year you choose, there is no way to get that graphic because regardless of base year chosen the graphic doesn't seem to consistently follow.

Another chart is posted and people claim it shows a drop in oil prices when Trump took office.

jhkim points out the chart shows rather a drop in prices under Obama, and actually a rise in prices under Trump the first two years. As if people hadn't noticed the years at the bottom of that very chart.

Instead of addressing any of this - where jhkim is using the very inflation calculator and chart he's asked to use and shows conclusively the assertions made using those calculators and charts do not in fact prove the thing they were being used to prove, he's:

1) just blanket called a liar (no basis, no context, no connection to the discussion that just took place, just called a liar);
2) a new chart is thrown up, with no attempt to address the calculator and prior chart that had been posted and jhkim addressed. Just straight-up moving target tactic.

Do I have that right? Because damn, that's some really poor debating right there if I have that right.

Like jhkim, "You drink from a camelback of lies" - Kill Team Kill

Seriously, just save it for someone who will buy into your bullshit. A lot of the readers here just aren't believing either you or jhkim anymore.

Speak for yourself Jeff. Or are you trying to pull that leftie tactic of claiming to represent some mob of people who think and believe exactly like you so you feel free to speak on their behalf? Sorry buddy, we're all individuals here. Even you.

[Pat]

The Keystone XL cancellation can't be the cause of prices since it was never operational.
Oil prices had rose quite dramatically (29%) from October to December 2021.   Before a Ukraine.
Oil is a commodity and the price of oil is what speculators believe it to be....
...which of course could be fears of all of the above and other factors.

The cancellation of a future project can absolutely affect prices. The market is a prediction engine, after all. Prices factor in the projected effects of future events.

[Spinachcat]

But then again this progressive non woke Democrat actualy knows some history...

Clearly you don't.

Go read up on the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Putin isn't Hitler. Putin is in the JFK role and in this bizarre, completely avoidable repeat of history.

[Battlemaster]

But then again this progressive non woke Democrat actualy knows some history...

Clearly you don't.

Go read up on the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Putin isn't Hitler. Putin is in the JFK role and in this bizarre, completely avoidable repeat of history.

How you managed to pack so much stupidity into less that 2 lines of rext is amazing.

Putin has been the agressor since he seized part of the region in 2018. All Ukraine did was defend itself. Meanwhile Putin is targeting civllian populations, shelters, escape routes, etc

You know what?  Never mind. Anyone who could say what you did must have a minus sign infront of his IQ. Go plug your head back into fox news and inforwrars, after expending as much idiocy as you did in your post you must need a refill.

Honestly I'm surprised your brain can even keep your heart and lungs working...