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Author Topic: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.  (Read 100886 times)

Shrieking Banshee

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #405 on: March 12, 2022, 07:03:34 PM »
That is a fair assessment, and one I agree with 100 percent.  I only made a calculation on loss of life, not what happens after.

Many things might cost lives. I don't believe Ukraine should keep fighting until its glassed, but if it just costs too little it will show Putin others are bluffing. What if he invades Poland and says 'If Nato Intervens Il throw a fit like I did with Ukraine'?
The history of Russia is the history of conquest. Unlike for the rest of europe, WWII was seen as a big win for Russia (despite the staggering loss of life). The loss of life and its cost has faded over time and a zingoistic zeal to 'liberate our Russian comrades' has been papered over it.

Russia is a mystery (even to the people living there). Why everybody is so purpetually unhappy is always on everyones minds.

Shasarak

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #406 on: March 12, 2022, 07:07:33 PM »
The most likely ways I see this resolved is if Putin is internally deposed (could happen) or Ukraine as a subjegated state (demanding disarmament and neutrality after killing the people there is demanding they live in fear of you, with nobody else to turn to except for security except for you, their abuser), and Russia as a rogue state akin to North Korea (but the sanctions on it would weaken over time). I don't see this becoming an occupation because killing everybody in the area is much cheaper.

I dont see Putin wanting to kill everybody.  The war would probably have been a lot quicker if that was the case.

Just as an observation, I could not help but notice that Russia started shelling civilian areas hard
after many media stories and videos talking about Ukraine arming civilians with guns and Molotov cocktails. 
One of the "laws" of war (if there are any) is that combatants are required to distinguish themselves from
non-combatants in order to prevent attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. 
If Ukraine fails in this, are not civilian infrastructure fair targets?

Is it just me or does it seem that the US is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian?
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Lynn

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #407 on: March 12, 2022, 07:15:57 PM »
Is it just me or does it seem that the US is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian?

I think the US is willing to let Ukrainians fight as long as they have the will to fight. A great many haven't lost that will. There's a significant amount of anger that's built up over the last eight years and the well televised present that they can see. I am not sure about Kharkiv, but most other cities still have at least internet access.
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oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #408 on: March 12, 2022, 07:16:53 PM »
That is a fair assessment, and one I agree with 100 percent.  I only made a calculation on loss of life, not what happens after.

Many things might cost lives. I don't believe Ukraine should keep fighting until its glassed, but if it just costs too little it will show Putin others are bluffing. What if he invades Poland and says 'If Nato Intervens Il throw a fit like I did with Ukraine'?
The history of Russia is the history of conquest. Unlike for the rest of europe, WWII was seen as a big win for Russia (despite the staggering loss of life). The loss of life and its cost has faded over time and a zingoistic zeal to 'liberate our Russian comrades' has been papered over it.

Russia is a mystery (even to the people living there). Why everybody is so purpetually unhappy is always on everyones minds.

  Well, because of paperwork I guess if they do that it is WW3 anyway.  You are right many things might cost lives, but a 5.45x39 or a 7.62x39 does tend to expedite when and how much the cost ends up being.   Maybe it is best to go ahead and take a chance and take military action (NATO) now even if it is going to happen later any way.  That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.    I suppose I can hope the USA has some cutting edge tech that can neutralize nukes and the threat of same. 

Shrieking Banshee

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #409 on: March 12, 2022, 07:25:20 PM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I don't know. Putin is operating under delusional logic, similar to USA but still different. The USA thought it could bribe other nations into being democratic (after bombing them). Russia thinks it can get its empire back together (with a shrinking population), except it has no funds to do so, the warfare is too destructive/expensive and information too easily spread for people to like an occupation. Its just military inertia.

While this will get Putin another 10 years in office, it comes at the expense of utterly destabilizing the country.

Edit: Despite what Metal Gear Solid 4 thinks, you cannot have a military economy in the modern age. Most of a countries cash nowadays depends on its infrastructure, and modern warfare is massively destructive to said infrastructure.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2022, 07:27:52 PM by Shrieking Banshee »

Shrieking Banshee

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #410 on: March 12, 2022, 09:06:30 PM »
OK now Putins plan is becoming clearer. Now that he has taken over Kherson, he wants to fracture it like Donetsk. Putin wants to fracture the country into chunks and only control the areas he cares about.  But unlike Donetsk, no major region wants to become independant all that much.

This would reduce the cost of occupation, and is really fucking evil. He effectively wants to own all the chunks that provide Ukraine any value and then let the rest rot.

Mistwell

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #411 on: March 12, 2022, 10:40:56 PM »
My Russian friend, talking to his friends still in Russia, just made a point I hadn't considered before.

China invades Siberia with the intent of taking it (a territory they've wanted in the past).

Who stops them?

Not Russia. Their military is busy on the other side.

Not any of the forces that normally would have done something about it. They're all pissed at Russia at the moment.

Who does anything about it?

David Johansen

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #412 on: March 13, 2022, 12:01:40 AM »
But does anybody really want Siberia?  Here in Canada, we lay claim to a lot of territory that nobody in their right mind would want to contest and so we get to keep it.  I have recently suggested that we just let the entire population of Ukraine immigrate to northern Saskatchewan.  It would nicely swing the center of voting power to the west :D
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Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #413 on: March 13, 2022, 01:01:58 AM »
My Russian friend, talking to his friends still in Russia, just made a point I hadn't considered before.

China invades Siberia with the intent of taking it (a territory they've wanted in the past).

Who stops them?

Not Russia. Their military is busy on the other side.

Not any of the forces that normally would have done something about it. They're all pissed at Russia at the moment.

Who does anything about it?
I posted earlier about the Primorsky Krai. Unlike the rest of Siberia, it has a real and concrete strategic value: It would give China direct access to the Sea of Japan, which they really, really want. And it would also cripple Russia, who would lose access to the Pacific. In addition, it fits in with the "part of China since ancient times" narrative the CCP adores, because until the late 19th century it was part of Outer Manchuria. The natives aren't Han, but they're formerly Chinese.

Though I don't see it as likely, unless Russia is humiliated and crippled. The Chinese-Russia friendship is a only matter of convenience and common enemies, but they're not going to turn on each other without a serious show of weakness. Plus, dealing with Vladivostok would be tough, because it has somewhat less than a million Russians.

jhkim

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #414 on: March 13, 2022, 01:42:06 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.

I want a world without war, but I don't think that pure pacifism is a good route to that. I think it is often appropriate to fight back.

I think the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians who are fighting back against the Russians aren't doing so because the West is telling them to. They are doing so because they believe their freedom from Russian conquest is something worth fighting for in itself. I don't think that is stupidity or blindness, and I'm not going to call them fools or puppets for doing so.

Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #415 on: March 13, 2022, 04:03:29 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.
Why do you think a world without war would be better?

Shasarak

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #416 on: March 13, 2022, 04:58:19 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.
Why do you think a world without war would be better?

Maybe he is an Oughtist?
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pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

Ratman_tf

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #417 on: March 13, 2022, 05:17:18 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.
Why do you think a world without war would be better?

Maybe he is an Oughtist?

Do we have posters here who think war is cool and fun and we should have more of it, more often?
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Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #418 on: March 13, 2022, 06:09:39 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.
Why do you think a world without war would be better?

Maybe he is an Oughtist?

Do we have posters here who think war is cool and fun and we should have more of it, more often?
Do we have posters here who think cutting people open and blood spurting and sometimes those people dying is cool and fun and we should have more of it, more often?

Or can we talk about surgery, or accidents, or that there are risk and dangers in the world and we can't completely erase them or human nature, and that there are costs to risk avoidance, without people patronizingly reframing everything as simplistic binaries where they're the only possible reasonable ones and anyone who they're disagreeing with is a complete psychopath?

No?

Chris24601

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #419 on: March 13, 2022, 08:03:16 AM »
That is really a prognostication I do not care to try to make.
I wouldn't advocate anybody go to War with Russia on Ukraines behalf. While maybe emotionally driven, I now don't believe in war at all. For a bit I thought war could remind people to be tougher. But now I think its so horrific and unpredictable its never worth it.

I've always been anti-war. The problem is that if people just surrender to the invader immediately because "war is bad", it won't be the end of war. The invaders will realize that war gets them what they want - so they will go to war again, as will other countries who see the same lesson.
Why do you think a world without war would be better?

Maybe he is an Oughtist?

Do we have posters here who think war is cool and fun and we should have more of it, more often?
Not that I’m aware of. My own position is that war is evil, but sometimes it’s the lesser evil and there are no other good options.

Worse, what might have looked like good options at the time could turn out to be bad options; Putin claimed it was Ukraine refusing to abide by a treaty as one of his reasons for war and it looks like the Ukrainian government wasn’t actually abiding by it. So perhaps war would have been avoided if they had followed it, but part of that treaty was about disarmament and if Putin was always going to invade he would have just made a different excuse and the Ukraine would have had even fewer options for defending itself.

We don’t know and can’t know what could have been if people had made different choices. We just have to deal with the situation we have now.