Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.

[oggsmash]

  News reports non stop it is going so badly...but he has the cities he wants surrounded...casualty reports are completely unreliable...the reality is Putin has a few cards to play that Zelensky does not.  He could simply start waging actual war and doing a USA style attack and level everything and cut off the water/power/internet at the drop of a dime.  IF they talk, I suspect he mentions this, and Zelensky takes a deal.   My worry is Putin will wage warfare USA style, and then people are going to get killed in the thousands in short order.  I hope they reach some agreement, even if it is some bullshit to put this off for another decade. 

    Because if Putin wages USA style war, I think NATO takes direct action, and then all bets are off.

Be careful. Trying to rationally consider the motivations, thoughts, and potential actions of your opposition means you are Putin Puppet!

   Well, I got called a terror apologist for doubting the desert wars years ago.   The USA does SO MUCH dirty shit, it is hard for me to listen to its pundits/media/so called experts because they are all motivated by factors that are not the truth.  I am a no war period person, so to me Putin is in the wrong, but I am also a believer Their business is not Our business.  The Founders had a great point with avoiding ALL foreign entanglements. 

[jhkim]

Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge. If this had been accepted 8 years ago we would not be in the current situation.

Go look at a map of the Soviet Union (preferably one with terrain features), and then compare it to a more current map. The current Russian border runs along the wide and indefensible European Plain from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The Soviet (and former Russian) borders ran from the Carpathian Mountains to Kaliningrad, a much more defensible position.

Russia is a fucking nuclear power with a massive military. No one is threatening to invade and conquer Russia - certainly not Ukraine. And if Russia were invaded, it doesn't have to defend itself by deploying troops on foot along its border like in the 19th century.

Even if Russia didn't have nukes -- having a non-mountainous border doesn't give a nation the right to invade and conquer its neighbor. There are tons of countries in the world with borders that are no more defensible than Russia's.

This is not about defense of Russia. Russia is not being threatened by Ukraine. It is purely the opposite. Russia wants to use its military to threaten and dominate its neighboring countries.

[squirewaldo]

Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge. If this had been accepted 8 years ago we would not be in the current situation.

Go look at a map of the Soviet Union (preferably one with terrain features), and then compare it to a more current map. The current Russian border runs along the wide and indefensible European Plain from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The Soviet (and former Russian) borders ran from the Carpathian Mountains to Kaliningrad, a much more defensible position.

Russia is a fucking nuclear power with a massive military. No one is threatening to invade and conquer Russia - certainly not Ukraine. And if Russia were invaded, it doesn't have to defend itself by deploying troops on foot along its border like in the 19th century.

Even if Russia didn't have nukes -- having a non-mountainous border doesn't give a nation the right to invade and conquer its neighbor. There are tons of countries in the world with borders that are no more defensible than Russia's.

This is not about defense of Russia. Russia is not being threatened by Ukraine. It is purely the opposite. Russia wants to use its military to threaten and dominate its neighboring countries.

Russia has the gross national product of Spain. Over the last 500 years it has been attacked by Westerners almost a dozen times. Perhaps their current fears are unfounded, but they are not afraid of legions of Ukrainians pouring over their indefensible borders. They are afraid of a unified Europe pouring over their indefensible borders. Ignoring history, and ignoring our enemies motivations, concerns, even irrational fears... is foolish IMHO. But take care and enjoy the day!

[Mistwell]

Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge.

We really don't. They've always had security concerns. They have security concerns with dozens of nations. They have actual NATO countries already on their border. Ukraine had not been accepted or even applied to NATO there were just discussions and NOTHING was imminent such that they needed to invade now or something would have irreparably happened to their security issues.

We don't need to acknowledge shit. Putin decided to invade because he thought he could get away with it. He even timed it right after the Olympics happened as a convenience - that's how not-pressing his "security issues" were. The rest is simpering excuses being pushed by the FSB through RT to dozens of other "news" sites trying to get willing puppets and people angry at various western Governments to sympathize with their bullshit excuse for invading a country because they thought they could get away with it.

[oggsmash]

Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge. If this had been accepted 8 years ago we would not be in the current situation.

Go look at a map of the Soviet Union (preferably one with terrain features), and then compare it to a more current map. The current Russian border runs along the wide and indefensible European Plain from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The Soviet (and former Russian) borders ran from the Carpathian Mountains to Kaliningrad, a much more defensible position.

Russia is a fucking nuclear power with a massive military. No one is threatening to invade and conquer Russia - certainly not Ukraine. And if Russia were invaded, it doesn't have to defend itself by deploying troops on foot along its border like in the 19th century.

Even if Russia didn't have nukes -- having a non-mountainous border doesn't give a nation the right to invade and conquer its neighbor. There are tons of countries in the world with borders that are no more defensible than Russia's.

This is not about defense of Russia. Russia is not being threatened by Ukraine. It is purely the opposite. Russia wants to use its military to threaten and dominate its neighboring countries.

  Well, after watching the USA use its military to threaten and dominate other countries, who can blame them for giving it a shot?   

[Ghostmaker]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

[oggsmash]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

   Well, I do not believe what US (and lets be honest, the USA is NATO, without the USA NATO would dissolve) says about much of anything anymore.  I can understand where Putin may not believe them either.

[Mistwell]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

The thing is Russia doesn't think for a moment we have those ambitions. They invaded Crimea in essentially the same way they're invading the rest of the country now and none of that was a serious reaction to anything the U.S. did. I think it's very easy to become U.S.-focused on these matters but I don't think the U.S. is the primary concern for Russia in any of their decisions regarding Ukraine. Putin wants effective control over the old USSR republics, and when he sees an opportunity to either install a puppet government for that purpose or grab territory for that purpose, he does it. This time, he waited until after the Olympics to call somewhat less attention to himself (which failed) and for when he thinks the west is fairly weak in dealing with Covid and a pretty lackluster U.S. President so it just seemed like a good time for him to force a puppet government in Ukraine. Not because he thought the U.S. was imminently going to do jack shit in the region.

[Mistwell]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

   Well, I do not believe what US (and lets be honest, the USA is NATO, without the USA NATO would dissolve) says about much of anything anymore.  I can understand where Putin may not believe them either.

Because Putin has done anything to earn your benefit of the doubt? And don't whataboutism that question just answer it directly.

[oggsmash]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

   Well, I do not believe what US (and lets be honest, the USA is NATO, without the USA NATO would dissolve) says about much of anything anymore.  I can understand where Putin may not believe them either.

Because Putin has done anything to earn your benefit of the doubt? And don't whataboutism that question just answer it directly.

  I am not giving him benefit of the doubt.  I think there is zero trust on both sides of that discussion, and I can see why on both sides.  I am not making a whataboutism of anything, If the USA is the leader of the free world, the shining moral example to be followed, I just miss understanding why they shit their pants when some other country follows their example.

  People screech whataboutism  on some things where it does not apply.  This is a cause and effect situation.  You do enough things, there are going to be effects.  We are seeing effects.

[Mistwell]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

   Well, I do not believe what US (and lets be honest, the USA is NATO, without the USA NATO would dissolve) says about much of anything anymore.  I can understand where Putin may not believe them either.

Because Putin has done anything to earn your benefit of the doubt? And don't whataboutism that question just answer it directly.

  I am not giving him benefit of the doubt.  I think there is zero trust on both sides of that discussion, and I can see why on both sides.  I am not making a whataboutism of anything, If the USA is the leader of the free world, the shining moral example to be followed, I just miss understanding why they shit their pants when some other country follows their example.

  People screech whataboutism  on some things where it does not apply.  This is a cause and effect situation.  You do enough things, there are going to be effects.  We are seeing effects.

We ask for an end to whataboutisms for the very reason you just demonstrated. I asked you a question about why you appeared to be giving Putin the benefit of the doubt. And I appreciate you answering it but you just couldn't help in the very next sentence mentioning what about the U.S.. For fuck's sake man, how can you not see why whataboutisms make conversations impossible when you cannot even answer that simple question without throwing one in there for no good purpose?

[oggsmash]

It doesn't matter that the West says 'we have no ambitions'. The issue is that Russia thinks those ambitions are there. Regardless of the reality of things.

And that doesn't even get into the U.S.'s overseas adventurism.

   Well, I do not believe what US (and lets be honest, the USA is NATO, without the USA NATO would dissolve) says about much of anything anymore.  I can understand where Putin may not believe them either.

Because Putin has done anything to earn your benefit of the doubt? And don't whataboutism that question just answer it directly.

  I am not giving him benefit of the doubt.  I think there is zero trust on both sides of that discussion, and I can see why on both sides.  I am not making a whataboutism of anything, If the USA is the leader of the free world, the shining moral example to be followed, I just miss understanding why they shit their pants when some other country follows their example.

  People screech whataboutism  on some things where it does not apply.  This is a cause and effect situation.  You do enough things, there are going to be effects.  We are seeing effects.

We ask for an end to whataboutisms for the very reason you just demonstrated. I asked you a question about why you appeared to be giving Putin the benefit of the doubt. And I appreciate you answering it but you just couldn't help in the very next sentence mentioning what about the U.S.. For fuck's sake man, how can you not see why whataboutisms make conversations impossible when you cannot even answer that simple question without throwing one in there for no good purpose?

      It is not a whataboutism.  It is a simple measure of where is the legal line to take military action on another nations soil.  The USA has established that to be a very, very flexible line.  So it matters a whole lot in the whole discussion.  That is, unless you feel the USA is able to have a different set of rules, if you feel that, I will surely leave any USA actions out moving forward.  But if you do not establish what is a justified or unjustified invasion, you have to establish which rules we are going by.

   So, do you think the USA has a different standard for an invasion/attacking another sovereign nation than everyone else?  I need no justification or argument for your answer, and will make no argument on that one, just a yes or a no.

[Lynn]

Russia has the gross national product of Spain. Over the last 500 years it has been attacked by Westerners almost a dozen times. Perhaps their current fears are unfounded, but they are not afraid of legions of Ukrainians pouring over their indefensible borders. They are afraid of a unified Europe pouring over their indefensible borders. Ignoring history, and ignoring our enemies motivations, concerns, even irrational fears... is foolish IMHO. But take care and enjoy the day!

Fear is a motivation for everyone, and a part of sitting at the big kid's table of the 21st century is that nobody gets to play the victim card and taken seriously except maybe for their own internal captive audiences. That goes for Russia, and it also goes for the 'century of humiliation' propaganda crowd.

[Shasarak]

   So, do you think the USA has a different standard for an invasion/attacking another sovereign nation than everyone else?  I need no justification or argument for your answer, and will make no argument on that one, just a yes or a no.

$10 internet bucks says that there will be no yes or no answer.

[jhkim]

Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge. If this had been accepted 8 years ago we would not be in the current situation.

Russia is a fucking nuclear power with a massive military. No one is threatening to invade and conquer Russia - certainly not Ukraine. And if Russia were invaded, it doesn't have to defend itself by deploying troops on foot along its border like in the 19th century.

Russia has the gross national product of Spain. Over the last 500 years it has been attacked by Westerners almost a dozen times. Perhaps their current fears are unfounded, but they are not afraid of legions of Ukrainians pouring over their indefensible borders. They are afraid of a unified Europe pouring over their indefensible borders. Ignoring history, and ignoring our enemies motivations, concerns, even irrational fears... is foolish IMHO.

I've known a lot of Russians, and none of them gave any indication of being afraid of an EU military invasion. Based on what I know, I simply don't buy your claim that the Russians are irrationally afraid of being invaded by Europe.

Some of these may feel Russia is being shut out of resources unfairly. There may be some who think they are fighting for the well-being of Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk. But fearing invasion is not on their mind.

As far as what the Russians are hearing and believing, I thought this piece by a Bulgarian acquaintance of mine was interesting. Apologies for phrasing as it is auto-translated from Bulgarian.

I want to bring your attention to an interesting paradox.

For nearly ten years, Putin's propaganda has been using the images and myths of the Second World War against power in Ukraine. Uses highly busy meaningful symbols, rhetoric and interpretations aimed at creating and maintaining specific strategic narratives, to shape the perception and emotional response to certain actions and events throughout the continuous process recalling the Great Patriotic War: the Ukrainian government was represented as "fascist", the Ukrainian army - as "executors" or "banderovts", a annexation of Crimea - as "the third defense of Sevastopol". The mythology of the Great Patriotic War is extremely powerful, it will always challenge the feelings and moods of a large part of the people living east of Berlin. The Soviet ideological machine carefully built and maintained this mythology for decades, planted it in the minds and hearts of the peoples of Eastern Europe, in places not quite successfully, in places partially, but in their own territorial borders - perfect.

The mythology of the Great Patriotic War is a shared mythology for Russians and Ukrainians, that is why it worked so well in the hybrid war. However, to a huge surprise to the Russian command, it seems that it works even better in the real war. Shared mythology is a two-blade knife. Didn't Putin's strategists predict this, didn't they expect it? Ukrainians studied history in the same textbooks, also read "Young Guard", cried at "A dawn is quiet here", marched in line with "Get up a huge country, get up on a deadly fight with a fascist force dark, with a cursed horde", taught and they are going to play the guitar with "Here Birds No they sing, trees do not grow, and only we grow shoulder to shoulder in the ground here. Just like the rest of us. Should not surprise us at all that they have risen up for a "holy war" against "racists" as they already call them on Twitter.

Therefore, contrary to all Putin's plans and expectations, Kyiv has not yet been taken over. Because Kyiv is not Kabul, Kyiv is "Leningrad, Stalingrad, Sevastopol... and they will defend him to the last person with radical, almost absurd gestures of heroism and sacrifice. So a boy self-exploded himself on a bridge to stop the military column, and one grandfather obstructed the way of the tanks with his tarot. Westerners don't quite understand similar meaningless gestures of sacrifice, but we understand them much better because we've watched the same movies, because we've read the same books, because we know what it means - "we need one victory, one for all - we're for there is no price."

Ukrainians are currently waging their Great Homeland War.