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Author Topic: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.  (Read 100780 times)

oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #135 on: February 28, 2022, 08:18:26 AM »
I think the U.S. should open its borders to Ukrainian refugees as willingly as it's accepted every other Afghani or south-of-the-border economic refugee over the years.

Jokes aside, I really wonder about Putin's mental stability. Threatening Finland in particular seems somewhat pointless.
Putin's losing. That must be a huge blow to his ego, and his ego is roughly 99% of who he is.

(The other 1% is shirtless pics of him riding bears.)

  I am not so sure that is true.  He seems to be invading while leaving services, buildings, people, and infrastructure intact.   It took the USA 43 days to take Iraq, and the USA did NOT attempt to leave anything intact.   I do not know his timeline, neither do you, and let's face it, neither do the "experts" on TV who have made huge fuck ups regarding their prognostications on Iraq and Afghanistan. 

  Now, if he hit you with an email about his time line I take that back.  I just can not see a ruthless pragmatist expecting to have it all wrapped up in 7 days.   I think it goes past a month, he will start feeling pressure. My hope is if his ego is destroyed he does not decide to take the world with him going down.  The press has certainly painted a picture of a guy more than willing to destroy most humans on the planet over his ego.  I hope they are liars.

oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #136 on: February 28, 2022, 08:20:04 AM »
  I would also say, between Russia and the USA judging relative egos and destructive temper tantrums......again Russia has not shown to be as bad as the USA with how they react when their will is not done.  So I have no idea where the whole will go (if contained to just Russia and Ukraine).

   If anyone needs a PR win in all this, it is certainly Biden.  I just feel no decisions around it will be his at all.  His people around him though....in way over their heads.

Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #137 on: February 28, 2022, 08:24:35 AM »
  I would also say, between Russia and the USA judging relative egos and destructive temper tantrums......again Russia has not shown to be as bad as the USA with how they react when their will is not done.  So I have no idea where the whole will go (if contained to just Russia and Ukraine).

   If anyone needs a PR win in all this, it is certainly Biden.  I just feel no decisions around it will be his at all.  His people around him though....in way over their heads.
Everything's relative. The US is used to getting their way, while Russia hasn't been holding a winning hand in decades. So the US is bad at small setbacks, while Putin can take pride in small victories. The problem is leaving him without anything he can call a victory.

This would definitely be time for a diplomatic masterstroke from a US President, but I 100% agree we won't see one.

oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #138 on: February 28, 2022, 08:47:01 AM »
I think Zelensky will sign a deal to not join NATO and let those regions go.   I think Putin would take that deal (I am not convinced he feels he has to displace the government, I think that is a big ask and willing to take a smaller deal), though his rhetoric at the moment seems as if he is not going to make a compromise with current government.  I honestly can not say.  I have limited interactions with Russians (they were all soldiers, and we all were drinking) and their emotions seemed to go from super flatline stable to volcano hot in a slit second, but then back to calm.  It was a little odd, and I have no idea how representative of Russians those guys were. 

Ghostmaker

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #139 on: February 28, 2022, 08:49:20 AM »
I think the U.S. should open its borders to Ukrainian refugees as willingly as it's accepted every other Afghani or south-of-the-border economic refugee over the years.

Jokes aside, I really wonder about Putin's mental stability. Threatening Finland in particular seems somewhat pointless.
Putin's losing. That must be a huge blow to his ego, and his ego is roughly 99% of who he is.

(The other 1% is shirtless pics of him riding bears.)
The same could be said of most political leaders anyways.

But yeah, nothing like having what should be a 'gimme' turn into a huge mess for him. Kind of hard on the Ukrainians, though.
The Swift thing could turn out to be a mistake. Putin does have nukes.
Throwing nukes when Russia's already been building their own payment system? And when China has clearly shown they're at least willing to play hopscotch with Putin, regardless of past animosity?

Sorry, Pat, but lolnope.

Pat
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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #140 on: February 28, 2022, 08:53:51 AM »
I think the U.S. should open its borders to Ukrainian refugees as willingly as it's accepted every other Afghani or south-of-the-border economic refugee over the years.

Jokes aside, I really wonder about Putin's mental stability. Threatening Finland in particular seems somewhat pointless.
Putin's losing. That must be a huge blow to his ego, and his ego is roughly 99% of who he is.

(The other 1% is shirtless pics of him riding bears.)
The same could be said of most political leaders anyways.

But yeah, nothing like having what should be a 'gimme' turn into a huge mess for him. Kind of hard on the Ukrainians, though.
The Swift thing could turn out to be a mistake. Putin does have nukes.
Throwing nukes when Russia's already been building their own payment system? And when China has clearly shown they're at least willing to play hopscotch with Putin, regardless of past animosity?

Sorry, Pat, but lolnope.
A nuke would be the end result of a string of humiliations. The safe bet is that string would have to be pretty long, but that's just a guess and we won't know until it happens. We're dealing with a stupid US president who needs to play macho for the mid-terms, a Russian president-for-life who acts macho and needs a win, media that's spinning this so hard it's turned into a blur, and sanctions that amount to turning them to into a pariah state like Iran. This is playing with fire.

3catcircus

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #141 on: February 28, 2022, 12:07:36 PM »
Odds of Putin suffering acute lead poisoning now that the Russian oligarchs are starting to go broke?  20% inflation, run on the banks, and dead Russian soldiers stacked up like cordwood...  And the looks on the faces of his generalissimos when he announced strategic rocket forces on full alert...

And make no mistake, Europe united on this *despite* the waterhead in the White House.

While we're on the subject, wha' happen' to all the deadliest plagues pandemic?!?  Why no troops in full-on MOPP suits waving jabs around?

Mistwell

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #142 on: February 28, 2022, 12:34:19 PM »
I think the U.S. should open its borders to Ukrainian refugees as willingly as it's accepted every other Afghani or south-of-the-border economic refugee over the years.

Jokes aside, I really wonder about Putin's mental stability. Threatening Finland in particular seems somewhat pointless.
Putin's losing. That must be a huge blow to his ego, and his ego is roughly 99% of who he is.

(The other 1% is shirtless pics of him riding bears.)
The same could be said of most political leaders anyways.

But yeah, nothing like having what should be a 'gimme' turn into a huge mess for him. Kind of hard on the Ukrainians, though.
The Swift thing could turn out to be a mistake. Putin does have nukes.
Throwing nukes when Russia's already been building their own payment system? And when China has clearly shown they're at least willing to play hopscotch with Putin, regardless of past animosity?

Sorry, Pat, but lolnope.

You can't really build an alternative "system" when SWIFT is more an agreement than a system. Anyone can create a wire transfer system, that parts easy. The key to SWIFT (which I use every month, sometimes multiple times a week) is it's an agreement between banks to send and accept and validate transactions. He's not going to get that agreement regardless of an alternative wire system he creates. So sure they can create a system which works between them, China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and maybe a couple other nations. But that's not all that useful in the grand scheme of things. The economic world is just much larger than that.

Now I don't think for a moment Putin will throw nukes. But I do think an actual SWIFT shut-off (which this isn't by the way - it's only a partial shut off so far to a handful of banks which could be subverted by using other banks) would harm them a lot. Their own analysis (announced prior to all this) is it would reduce their economy by 5% almost immediately.

Switzerland, traditionally neutral, just took sides in this and is freezing Russian assets. THAT is going to hurt. A lot of Russian oligarchs used those banks assuming that could never happen. Russia might be a communist nation, but it's also a corrupt and ruthlessly capitalist at the top. The wealthy have a huge amount of influence in Russia and they are not going to be happy with this turn of events between asset freezes and SWIFT shut downs.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2022, 12:36:52 PM by Mistwell »

Mistwell

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #143 on: February 28, 2022, 12:38:38 PM »
Odds of Putin suffering acute lead poisoning now that the Russian oligarchs are starting to go broke?  20% inflation, run on the banks, and dead Russian soldiers stacked up like cordwood...  And the looks on the faces of his generalissimos when he announced strategic rocket forces on full alert...

And make no mistake, Europe united on this *despite* the waterhead in the White House.

Hey look I mostly agree with 3cat on something. Been a while.

squirewaldo

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #144 on: February 28, 2022, 12:39:30 PM »
Russia has legitimate security concerns. That is the first thing we need to acknowledge. If this had been accepted 8 years ago we would not be in the current situation.

Go look at a map of the Soviet Union (preferably one with terrain features), and then compare it to a more current map. The current Russian border runs along the wide and indefensible European Plain from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The Soviet (and former Russian) borders ran from the Carpathian Mountains to Kaliningrad, a much more defensible position.

NATO foolishly expanded to the Russian borders while refusing to provide security guarantees to Russia. Is it so hard to imagine Russian leaders looking at the map in despair? The current Russian border is indefensible. History has proven that time and time again.

I think anything else is just nonsense, and misinformation. Ukraine is not a fascist state that is run by old school NAZIs (even though there are some old school NAZIs in positions of power). Nor is it an up and coming 'model of democratic progress!' (Like in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.????). It is just a failed state being run by corrupt incompetent fools who are too busy robbing anything worth stealing to worry about ideologies.

A hostile Ukraine on Russia's border poses a serious threat to Russian security. We have refused to accept this fact to everyone's embarrassment and harm.

Lynn

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #145 on: February 28, 2022, 01:04:35 PM »
I think anything else is just nonsense, and misinformation. Ukraine is not a fascist state that is run by old school NAZIs (even though there are some old school NAZIs in positions of power). Nor is it an up and coming 'model of democratic progress!' (Like in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.????). It is just a failed state being run by corrupt incompetent fools who are too busy robbing anything worth stealing to worry about ideologies.

It isn't a 'model' but it has been working to rid itself of corruption. That is really hard to do considering the layers of corruption that existed before and after the fall of the Soviet Union. The quality of politicians has at least incrementally, improved since. Not every politician is on the take. A lot of Ukrainian citizens look at other Post Soviet countries in the EU and like what they see. For many younger ones, that's the vision they have because they don't remember the Soviet years.

A hostile Ukraine on Russia's border poses a serious threat to Russian security. We have refused to accept this fact to everyone's embarrassment and harm.

They are hostile as a result of Russia's actions, and nothing else. Given the number of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and, the general acceptance of cross border transit (just like Canada and the USA, some people work on opposite sides of the border), Ukrainians are by nature not-hostile towards Russians. You only find hostility among the tiniest number of nutjobs.

Putin originally wanted to create an economic zone like the EC / EU but it would have basically replicated the centralized power of Russia with few benefits for member nations. He blew it.  The other post Soviet countries want to determine their own futures and not be part of a 19th century, ethno-based empire. Self determination is all that matters and Russia has to accept that.

Lynn Fredricks
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squirewaldo

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #146 on: February 28, 2022, 01:09:03 PM »
I think anything else is just nonsense, and misinformation. Ukraine is not a fascist state that is run by old school NAZIs (even though there are some old school NAZIs in positions of power). Nor is it an up and coming 'model of democratic progress!' (Like in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.????). It is just a failed state being run by corrupt incompetent fools who are too busy robbing anything worth stealing to worry about ideologies.

It isn't a 'model' but it has been working to rid itself of corruption. That is really hard to do considering the layers of corruption that existed before and after the fall of the Soviet Union. The quality of politicians has at least incrementally, improved since. Not every politician is on the take. A lot of Ukrainian citizens look at other Post Soviet countries in the EU and like what they see. For many younger ones, that's the vision they have because they don't remember the Soviet years.

A hostile Ukraine on Russia's border poses a serious threat to Russian security. We have refused to accept this fact to everyone's embarrassment and harm.

They are hostile as a result of Russia's actions, and nothing else. Given the number of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and, the general acceptance of cross border transit (just like Canada and the USA, some people work on opposite sides of the border), Ukrainians are by nature not-hostile towards Russians. You only find hostility among the tiniest number of nutjobs.

Putin originally wanted to create an economic zone like the EC / EU but it would have basically replicated the centralized power of Russia with few benefits for member nations. He blew it.  The other post Soviet countries want to determine their own futures and not be part of a 19th century, ethno-based empire. Self determination is all that matters and Russia has to accept that.

Ignoring the motivations of your enemy does not make you stronger. It certainly does not make you wiser. Nor does demonizing your enemy help in any way.

Lynn

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #147 on: February 28, 2022, 01:14:07 PM »
Ignoring the motivations of your enemy does not make you stronger. It certainly does not make you wiser. Nor does demonizing your enemy help in any way.

Correct. But acknowledgement of understanding isn't agreement. Speaking truth to power isn't demonizing.

Lynn Fredricks
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oggsmash

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #148 on: February 28, 2022, 01:17:30 PM »
  News reports non stop it is going so badly...but he has the cities he wants surrounded...casualty reports are completely unreliable...the reality is Putin has a few cards to play that Zelensky does not.  He could simply start waging actual war and doing a USA style attack and level everything and cut off the water/power/internet at the drop of a dime.  IF they talk, I suspect he mentions this, and Zelensky takes a deal.   My worry is Putin will wage warfare USA style, and then people are going to get killed in the thousands in short order.  I hope they reach some agreement, even if it is some bullshit to put this off for another decade. 

    Because if Putin wages USA style war, I think NATO takes direct action, and then all bets are off.

squirewaldo

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Re: Ukraine is under attack. It's a full on war.
« Reply #149 on: February 28, 2022, 01:26:58 PM »
  News reports non stop it is going so badly...but he has the cities he wants surrounded...casualty reports are completely unreliable...the reality is Putin has a few cards to play that Zelensky does not.  He could simply start waging actual war and doing a USA style attack and level everything and cut off the water/power/internet at the drop of a dime.  IF they talk, I suspect he mentions this, and Zelensky takes a deal.   My worry is Putin will wage warfare USA style, and then people are going to get killed in the thousands in short order.  I hope they reach some agreement, even if it is some bullshit to put this off for another decade. 

    Because if Putin wages USA style war, I think NATO takes direct action, and then all bets are off.

Be careful. Trying to rationally consider the motivations, thoughts, and potential actions of your opposition means you are Putin Puppet! :(