The war in Ukraine doesn't pass the sniff test

[Klava]

if Russia wins in Ukraine or at least manages to annex Donezk it will only mean a pause until it will try to start again. In the meantime the chances are extremely high that it will go for Moldavia and Georgia next.

would be impossible to sell to the russians, imo. ukraine was at least half-russian ethnicity-wise - even more so in the eastern regions - when the soviet union collapsed, and at least a quarter (maybe more, would depend on whom you asked) were still that at the time of the coup in 2014. so when the motherfuckers installed in kiev by the west started harassing russian part of the population it resonated very meaningfully with huge number of people in russia. putin and co' support for the invasion is heavily dependent on that and will most likely remain strong for as long as fucktards in kiev keep their anti-russian politics going.
would be completely different game with georgia and moldova, so i doubt putin and co would dare go that far.

[Coffeecup]

According to some analysts Russian demographics crisis is another reason why it invaded Ukraine.
https://jacobin.com/2023/04/russia-ukraine-war-putin-demographic-crisis-social-reproduction-biopolitical-imperialism

[Chris24601]

In terms of what Putin sold to the Russian people he just needs a lasting ceasefire or peace treaty recognizing their present gains to have obtained complete success. He never said he wanted all of Ukraine. He said he just wanted the majority Russian portions that the literal Nazis in Ukraine started shelling back in 2014.

The main reason the Ukraine has been "holding back the Russians" and yet has lost more than half-a-million men on their counter-offensive is that Russians stopped advancing pretty soon after they took the territory they wanted and dug-in... forcing the Ukrainian forces into the much more costly role of attacker (their insistence on throwing men and machines into Russian artillery kill zones is downright WW1 in its willingness to throw lives away for virtually nonexistent gains).

What's also telling is the on the ground reports from Eastern Europe where the banks are helping people work around the US led sanctions of Russia and treating the whole situation like it's over. Meanwhile our President is threatening to send our troops over to directly fight Russian if Congress won't agree to continue funding the Ukrainian money laundering operation and trying to keep the sanctions in effect for US businesses and to make crypto illegal as part of their insane plan to replace the dollar they're collapsing with a central bank digital currency.

This whole war is a mass of corruption from top to bottom on both sides.

[Coffeecup]

You seem to have forgotten that Russia aimed directly for Kiew in the first days of the war.
And where did you get the number that Ukraine lost half a million people?

[Chris24601]

You seem to have forgotten that Russia aimed directly for Kiew in the first days of the war.
And where did you get the number that Ukraine lost half a million people?

During Operation Desert Storm we drove all the way to Baghdad even though we had no intention of staying (in that war anyway). You go for the enemy capitol because knocking out the leaders ends the conflict a lot faster if you can achieve it... and even if you can't it forces the opponent to pull back forces to defend the capitol while you secure the lines you actually care about because even if the loss of your capitol is mostly symbolic, it tells the world you're not strong enough to hold what you have so don't bother sending military aid to them.

All the on the ground info says Russia doesn't care a wit about what happens to the Rump State that is the rest of Ukraine. If they did you wouldn't have seen a shift to defensive formations before Ukraine even started its counter-offensive. Ukraine is losing badly because Russia is making them play offense which is always costlier that defense (not losing is easier than winning) and Ukraine's insistence on trying to throw men and tanks into kill zones of Russian artillery instead of just about any other tactics is right in line with WW1 military doctrines of trying to overcome the enemy lines with massed infantry charges into machine guns and hoping the enemy runs out of bullets before you run out of bodies.

As to the losses... here's three different sources saying 500k casualties.
https://infobrics.org/post/39361/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-estimated-casualties-1.6940723

[Coffeecup]

The available information point to the conclusion that Russia changed it's plans after it's troops were defeated in their rush to conquer Kiew and the rest of Ukraine to something more manageable in the short run.
There is not the slightest indication that Russia will not attempt to annex the rest later.

Also you wrote that Ukraine lost 500k people in their counter-offensive. But the articles you posted claim that 500k people died together on both sides. Nevertheless it is very difficult to get precise numbers on both sides. Additionally Russia is known for sending it's soldiers under equipped into killzones. Currently it seems that it faces another version of Verdun in Awdijiwka.

Yes, I agree that there is corruption on both sides.
But Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed parts of it with sham referendums. It is actively destroying signs of Ukraine culture and is forcibly relocating Ukrainian children to Russia.

So who is the bad one here is as crystal clear as in WWII (without the Holocaust) and also it is in the West's pragmatic interest that Russia will lose as pointed out above.

[jhkim]

The main reason the Ukraine has been "holding back the Russians" and yet has lost more than half-a-million men on their counter-offensive is that Russians stopped advancing pretty soon after they took the territory they wanted and dug-in...

As to the losses... here's three different sources saying 500k casualties.
https://infobrics.org/post/39361/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-estimated-casualties-1.6940723

From your source,

Russia's military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

That's for the entire war, not limited to the counter-offensive.

[nielspeterdejong]

The main reason the Ukraine has been "holding back the Russians" and yet has lost more than half-a-million men on their counter-offensive is that Russians stopped advancing pretty soon after they took the territory they wanted and dug-in...

As to the losses... here's three different sources saying 500k casualties.
https://infobrics.org/post/39361/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-estimated-casualties-1.6940723

From your source,

Russia's military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

That's for the entire war, not limited to the counter-offensive.

The Russians are stating that their casualties are close around 50.000, and honestly, when looking at the mass gravejards that Ukraine is building and Russia is not, I think that is accurate. Also, the number of Ukrainian casualties (as in, dead, not even wounded) has already passed 500.000.

This sadly, is not propaganda, but reality. A reality which makes sense when you think about it.

Russia only went in with a force of 90.000 at the time, against Ukraine's at that time 800.000 NATO trained army (which was build up after 2014, when the US and EU backed insurgents disposed of a pro-Russian democratically elected president). He wanted to intimidate them, and force them to sign a treaty that would make them remove all NATO presence in their country. Biden send Boris Johnson to Zilensky, and convinced him not to sign it.

Then Putin pulled back to his constructed fortifications, and simply applied the same tactic they used against the germans in WW2: A three layer defense, with lots and lots of artillary. Something the Ukrainians were lacking greatly.

Then under pressure from NATO, they threw all those poor men against the Russian lines of defense in human wave tactics, getting them butchered in large numbers, to the point that conscription is now also for men above the age of 40, and many disabled people have to go back to war as well.

In the end, this could easily have been avoided, and they should have made a deal with Russia (who did not want to take over Europe, they simply didn't want to have any NATO presence nearby). Instead, because of the mass propaganda (which you are falling for yourself now) as well as the US and EU, more than half a million Ukrainian men are now dead, and Europe's economy is crumbling. All the while Russia has made ties with China and India instead of european nations, and is now laughing at how pathetic we are in the real world. While we still pretend that we are great in our fantasies.

[nielspeterdejong]

You seem to have forgotten that Russia aimed directly for Kiew in the first days of the war.
And where did you get the number that Ukraine lost half a million people?

This was from even our own western news reporters, who reported about it under pressure. And this was even back in august and september. The number of dead, not dead and wounded, has now likely risen above 500.000:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcl0PTqql8&t=21s&ab_channel=HistoryLegends

[Klava]

it doesn't matter which reporters reported which - they are all paid to report what they are paid to report. journalism, at least in the form it's usually described as a trade of honestly researching and reporting on stuff - is long dead.

the problem, imo, is that a lot of people keep viewing this shit going on in ukraine as a kind of fairy tale struggle of good vs evil, when in reality it is a textbook case of imperialistic conflict. all sides are lying about it, they are all trying to profit from it, and none of those calling the shots give a damn about ukrainians, or russians, or citizens of the countries involved for that matter.

[jhkim]

You seem to have forgotten that Russia aimed directly for Kiew in the first days of the war.
And where did you get the number that Ukraine lost half a million people?

This was from even our own western news reporters, who reported about it under pressure. And this was even back in august and september. The number of dead, not dead and wounded, has now likely risen above 500.000:

https://nypost.com/2023/08/18/ukraine-war-troop-deaths-injuries-near-500k-officials/

Have you even read the link you're giving? According to this article you yourself cited, Ukrainian deaths were 70,000 while Russian deaths were 120,000 back in August 2023. These are the first paragraphs of the article:

Nearly 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the start of the war 18 months ago, according to US officials.

Russia's military casualties are approaching 300,000, including up to 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injuries, said the New York Times, citing the anonymous officials.

Ukrainian deaths were around 70,000, with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded, it added.

Ukraine's battlefield deaths have already surpassed the number of Americans killed in Vietnam over the course of nearly 20 years, which amounted to about 58,000 people.

The sources cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to pin down because Moscow is believed to habitually undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not release official figures.

I'm not even claiming about the accuracy of it. I'm just reading your own source.

[nielspeterdejong]

Ah, I gave you the wrong source, my bad. I was looking over one of the articles that was shared here, and apparently it then didn't link properly when I switched to the video.

I meant to share this youtube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcl0PTqql8&t=21s&ab_channel=HistoryLegends

He also goes into the total number of death on both sides at one point, and talks on what he bases that.

[jhkim]

Ah, I gave you the wrong source, my bad. I was looking over one of the articles that was shared here, and apparently it then didn't link properly when I switched to the video.

I meant to share this youtube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcl0PTqql8&t=21s&ab_channel=HistoryLegends

He also goes into the total number of death on both sides at one point, and talks on what he bases that.

Can you give a time cite? I don't see anything in the transcript that addresses the total number of deaths. I see a citation at time mark 3:13 saying this: "Russian reports talk about 13 thousand to 16 thousand Ukrainian casualties KIA or wounded in past 30 days of operations."

But he is clear that's Russian reports. And that's during the counteroffensive push, which is assuredly going to be a higher rate than at other points in the war.

Even if we assume that the Russian reports are completely unbiased, and we take the highest number in their range, and that the counter-offensive has the same casualty rate as the rest of the war, that's nowhere close to 500k deaths. Take 16k and assume one-third of those are KIA, that would be 5.3k deaths per month. With 23 months of war, that would be 120k deaths, which is less than a quarter of 500k. And those assumptions are all unwarranted, I would say.

[blackstone]

Ah, I gave you the wrong source, my bad. I was looking over one of the articles that was shared here, and apparently it then didn't link properly when I switched to the video.

I meant to share this youtube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAcl0PTqql8&t=21s&ab_channel=HistoryLegends

He also goes into the total number of death on both sides at one point, and talks on what he bases that.

You do know he's pro-Russian right?

[oggsmash]

  The part where this is really going to get awesome is when it ends and Black rock or some other hooked in gang rolls in to rebuild and allows a massive flood of immigrants to do the labor dead and crippled Ukrainian men can not do.   It will be a win-win, putin keeps NATO out, the USA can wash SHITLOADS of money through Ukraine while making it the most diverse nation in Eastern Europe.  Rainbow flags hanging everywhere and everyone gets what they really wanted to the whole time.  Well...of course the People of Ukraine are going to be absolutely miserable...but hey, as long as Zelensky can escape to one of his out of nation estates he will live happily ever after.