The war in Ukraine doesn't pass the sniff test

[Eirikrautha]

The ants are scrambling around the nest now because the great Ponzi scheme called US currency is about to topple over. The dollar is losing ground as a universal trading currency every day. Other nations are wising up and ensuring their economies are based on something other than hot air. The vast majority of "aid" sent to Ukraine is being funneled back through politicians who take their cut, then back to their handlers, the wealthy families and banksters who control most of the money. They know that currency will fail soon. Ukraine is just the best excuse they have to leech as much taxpayer wealth as they can before the tap runs dry.

From what I've followed, the dollar is doing much better than most of the other currencies like the Euro and the Yen. Also, China's economy (which used to be the recent boogieman) is doing crappy now. Here's what I see of dollar value recently:

The dollar climbed to a six-month high on Friday at the end of a week when US stock and bond markets weakened and investors prepared for a prolonged period of high interest rates.

The currency hit its highest levels against the euro, the pound and the yen since at least March after the Federal Reserve set out plans to cut interest rates — now at a 22-year high — much more slowly than economists had thought.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/fa4b83f9-9c41-49c7-b718-2de55802686d

So, you are admitting that you are either economically illiterate, or you are being intentionally obtuse.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/de-dollarisation-shifting-power-between-us-brics

The loss of the dollar as reserve currency would be catastrophic to the US economy (and inflation).  For many years, the dollar didn't even have competition.  Now the BRICS nations are actively trying to dethrone the dollar.  They haven't done so ...yet.  But they are trying.

[jhkim]

From what I've followed, the dollar is doing much better than most of the other currencies like the Euro and the Yen. Also, China's economy (which used to be the recent boogieman) is doing crappy now. Here's what I see of dollar value recently:

The dollar climbed to a six-month high on Friday at the end of a week when US stock and bond markets weakened and investors prepared for a prolonged period of high interest rates.

The currency hit its highest levels against the euro, the pound and the yen since at least March after the Federal Reserve set out plans to cut interest rates — now at a 22-year high — much more slowly than economists had thought.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/fa4b83f9-9c41-49c7-b718-2de55802686d

So, you are admitting that you are either economically illiterate, or you are being intentionally obtuse.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/de-dollarisation-shifting-power-between-us-brics

The loss of the dollar as reserve currency would be catastrophic to the US economy (and inflation).  For many years, the dollar didn't even have competition.  Now the BRICS nations are actively trying to dethrone the dollar.  They haven't done so ...yet.  But they are trying.

The BRICS nations haven't even created this hypothetical alternative to the dollar, and even if they do create something, it could be just as unsuccessful as all the other alternatives that countries have tried so far. This is from your own article:

Foreign governments wanting to liberate themselves from reliance on the U.S. dollar are anything but new. Murmurs in foreign capitals about a desire to dethrone the dollar have been making headlines since the 1960s. But the talk has yet to turn into results. By one measure, the dollar is now used in 84.3 percent of cross-border trade—compared to just 4.5 percent for the Chinese yuan. And the Kremlin's habitual use of lies as an instrument of statecraft offers grounds for skepticism about anything Russia says. On a litany of practical questions, like how much the other BRICS nations are on board with Babakov's proposal, for now, answers remain unclear.

For decades, the dollar has gone up and down; the U.S. economy has had downturns and upturns; and so forth. So what?

A year or two ago on this forum, there was regular talk about how the U.S. would be enslaved to dominant China. Now China's economy is in tatters, and the U.S. is holding on better than most other countries.

Make a specific prediction for the next year or two, and we'll discuss it a year or two down the line.

[Scooter]

Meatpacking workers at Hormel Foods' plant in Austin, Minnesota, voted to reject a "final offer" contract last week in a push for stronger wages, setting the stage for a potential strike at the processor's largest facility.
"It's simply not good enough," said the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 663 bargaining committee, which represents close to 95% of workers at Hormel's hometown plant. "

Don't worry.  Biden will just ship in a few thousand illegals to handle that no skill job situation... Dem voters have GOT to be the lowest IQ hominids around.

[DocJones]

The war in Ukraine is the result of diplomatic incompetence.  The same people are still in charge and the gong show continues.

Memo dated February 1st, 2008
to SoS Condoleza Rice
from Ambassador to Russia William Burns
Declassified January 30, 2018
Nyet means Nyet

In summary the US in the years since this memo warning them, has instead deliberately kept poking the bear.

[Fheredin]

The ants are scrambling around the nest now because the great Ponzi scheme called US currency is about to topple over. The dollar is losing ground as a universal trading currency every day. Other nations are wising up and ensuring their economies are based on something other than hot air. The vast majority of "aid" sent to Ukraine is being funneled back through politicians who take their cut, then back to their handlers, the wealthy families and banksters who control most of the money. They know that currency will fail soon. Ukraine is just the best excuse they have to leech as much taxpayer wealth as they can before the tap runs dry.

From what I've followed, the dollar is doing much better than most of the other currencies like the Euro and the Yen. Also, China's economy (which used to be the recent boogieman) is doing crappy now. Here's what I see of dollar value recently:

The dollar climbed to a six-month high on Friday at the end of a week when US stock and bond markets weakened and investors prepared for a prolonged period of high interest rates.

The currency hit its highest levels against the euro, the pound and the yen since at least March after the Federal Reserve set out plans to cut interest rates — now at a 22-year high — much more slowly than economists had thought.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/fa4b83f9-9c41-49c7-b718-2de55802686d

So, you are admitting that you are either economically illiterate, or you are being intentionally obtuse.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/de-dollarisation-shifting-power-between-us-brics

The loss of the dollar as reserve currency would be catastrophic to the US economy (and inflation).  For many years, the dollar didn't even have competition.  Now the BRICS nations are actively trying to dethrone the dollar.  They haven't done so ...yet.  But they are trying.

BRICS has essentially zero chance of successfully making a dollar substitute. Russia is under deep sanctions and is using gold for international trade, China actively manipulates their currency to prop up exports, India actively hates China and views them as their largest rival, Brazil and South Africa are literally on different continents from the rest of them and don't have a particularly large economy to do something like backing a global reserve currency.

I view BRICS's attempt at a new currency as a propaganda tool and not a real potential.

What I do think could happen, however, is a sovereign debt collapse. Most nations in the world have huge sovereign debts, are looking down the barrel of a recession, and are being forced to increase interest rates to fight inflation. This means there's a good chance a lot of nations like Japan and China could be forced to sell their USD-denominated assets, tanking US T-Bill prices. Lower bond prices means interest rates spike even higher, which could make the US Goverment default.

The Pound and the Euro are both looking to peg themselves to the dollar for support, and China is dependent on exports to the US especially. If something major happens to the US Dollar, every world currency of note either fails with it or gets overloaded immediately afterwards.

[Scooter]

The Pound and the Euro are both looking to peg themselves to the dollar for support, and China is dependent on exports to the US especially. If something major happens to the US Dollar, every world currency of note either fails with it or gets overloaded immediately afterwards.

This.  Which is also why I double over laughing when idiots say China is going to start a war with the US.  If China loses the US as a market it will collapse under economic chaos and riots against the gov't as unemployment levels would be astronomical.

[Ruprecht]

Biden offered to get Z out of Ukraine when the Russians first attacked. If Z had taken him up on the offer the Ukraine would have collapsed. So suggestions the war is about keeping Russia from getting evidence on Biden corruption doesn't really pass the smell test.

I think the west has crippled our own economies with debt and inflation and demonizing Putin that it would be pretty much impossible to walk away. I think Putin won't survive if Russia retreats. So neither side knows how to back out.

[Klava]

I think the west has crippled our own economies with debt and inflation and demonizing Putin that it would be pretty much impossible to walk away. I think Putin won't survive if Russia retreats. So neither side knows how to back out.

that's my point. and it keeps escalating.

[jhkim]

one question i still haven't seen answered in all of this - how the eff do you de-escalate that shit anyway? it must end somehow, right? the problem is, putin cannot concede in this, because he will loose both his crew's massive capital investments in ukraine and his "strong leader" image as well - and biden cannot concede, because if he does taiwan is next.

I think the west has crippled our own economies with debt and inflation and demonizing Putin that it would be pretty much impossible to walk away. I think Putin won't survive if Russia retreats. So neither side knows how to back out.

that's my point. and it keeps escalating.

It could happen like in the Korean War. After some wide back-and-forth, the amount of territory gained with each push gets less and less, so there is less and less interest in hard pushes. So eventually (after another year or two from now), a ceasefire is declared at wherever the current battle lines are. A demilitarized zone is declared. Neither side recognizes the legitimacy of the other, and almost no countries recognize the Russian-gained territory (Donestk and Luhansk) as legitimate.

At least the number of civilian casualties has been going down for a while:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1318455/ukraine-war-casualties-monthly/

[Scooter]

I think the west has crippled our own economies with debt and inflation and demonizing Putin that it would be pretty much impossible to walk away. I think Putin won't survive if Russia retreats. So neither side knows how to back out.

that's my point. and it keeps escalating.

It hasn't escalated at all. In fact the area of fighting and occupation has been SHRINKING.   

[Ruprecht]

It could happen like in the Korean War. After some wide back-and-forth, the amount of territory gained with each push gets less and less, so there is less and less interest in hard pushes. So eventually (after another year or two from now), a ceasefire is declared at wherever the current battle lines are. A demilitarized zone is declared. Neither side recognizes the legitimacy of the other, and almost no countries recognize the Russian-gained territory (Donestk and Luhansk) as legitimate.

I don't think Putin can survive that outcome. I expect him to call up a draft and as the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine he sends his people into the meat grinder. If they don't win a year after that he's out.

The sad thing about that scenario is they have a really bad demographic crisis in Russia and throwing away a bunch of military age men will only hurry the eventual end. He should be encouraging immigration and paying people to have extra babies instead of churning through his own population.

[Klava]

It could happen like in the Korean War. After some wide back-and-forth, the amount of territory gained with each push gets less and less, so there is less and less interest in hard pushes. So eventually (after another year or two from now), a ceasefire is declared at wherever the current battle lines are. A demilitarized zone is declared. Neither side recognizes the legitimacy of the other, and almost no countries recognize the Russian-gained territory (Donestk and Luhansk) as legitimate.

I don't think Putin can survive that outcome

agreed. for putin and co this is the hill they are going to die on. and if US and vassals keep pushing, they will eventually nuke their puppets in Kiev. what happens then... i dunno. rather not find out tbh.

[Scooter]

and if US and vassals keep pushing, they will eventually nuke their puppets in Kiev. what happens then... i dunno. rather not find out tbh.

Wrong. Putin doesn't control Russia's nukes.

[Coffeecup]

To my mind the war in Ukraine is a mix of diplomatic incompetence from the side of the West (it was foreseeable and convincing Ukraine to get rid of it's nukes was stupid) as well as the usual behaviour of a dictator who tries to stay in power by conquering another country and strengthen Russia.

After all Russia tried to get parts of Ukraine even after the annexation of Crimea via "Russian tourists" (or to be more precise Wagner). That eventually even led to the destruction of Flight 752.
In the end the total annexation of Ukraine will help Russia since it will raise it's production of wheat substantially and make parts of the world dependent from it.

There are right-wing groups within Ukraine as well as Russia. Interesting though that our Nazis in the West are more pro-Russian which might be due to financing.

We should also not forget that Russia via troll factories actually tried to influence Western societies and even election.

So weakening Russia is exactly in the interest of the West since Russia is behaving hostile for quite some time.

Additionally if Russia wins in Ukraine or at least manages to annex Donezk it will only mean a pause until it will try to start again. In the meantime the chances are extremely high that it will go for Moldavia and Georgia next. That will be a huge problem for the EU.

Should Trump become president it might even be the case that Russia might be encouraged to go after Estonia and Finnland if it was successful in Ukraine. If that will be the case we will have a huge conventional war in Europe and that will be pretty bad for the US economy.

Additionally as can be seen in South America other countries might feel encouraged to do the same as Russia and go for their neighbours.

[Ruprecht]

Russia has a massive demographics problem and will cease to be a great power in a couple of decades. We should think twice before spending our way into another great depression just to hurry that up.