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Author Topic: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021  (Read 117619 times)

EOTB

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #795 on: February 11, 2021, 07:37:15 PM »
This story about several repubs in one area whose votes all were wrong by almost the same number is debunked because it’s comparative to that time in Florida where 1 candidate had his votes change in significantly varying amounts between-50 and +1,000 across all the counties in the state.

Also, trust your scientists because their advanced degrees mean they know how to evaluate the data into summaries you can depend on
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moonsweeper

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #796 on: February 11, 2021, 10:31:28 PM »
This story about several repubs in one area whose votes all were wrong by almost the same number is debunked because it’s comparative to that time in Florida where 1 candidate had his votes change in significantly varying amounts between-50 and +1,000 across all the counties in the state.

Also, trust your scientists because their advanced degrees mean they know how to evaluate the data into summaries you can depend on

Hell, EOTB.  You're missing out on the best part, which the article didn't even address.

Look at the actual counts.

All 4 have the R under-counted by ~300 votes (297, 298, 299, 303)
3 of them have the D under-counted by ~23 votes (18, 21, 28)

So the difference between the 2 parties is R was under-counted by an order of magnitude more than the D...
That seems kind of odd for a 'random generic error'....

Then we have the one outlier.
1 D was over-counted by ~100 votes (99)

Hmm...What can we take away from this?

Actual total votes were off by 1165 votes.
Of those miscount votes only 67 favored R (5.8%) while the other 1098 (94.2%) favored D...

Isn't it also interesting that the sole over-count that happened occurred for D...and happened in the only contest that was actually remotely competitive? (R 52.3% vs D 47.7% final result after correction of a 4.3% count error)

Nothing to see here, Citizen. Move along, please.
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Shasarak

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #797 on: February 11, 2021, 10:55:04 PM »
More evidence that the only violence at the most peaceful Capitol walking tour was due to police brutality...again

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EOTB

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #798 on: February 11, 2021, 10:59:09 PM »
Nothing to see here, Citizen. Move along, please.

That's going to be the mantra.
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shuddemell

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #799 on: February 12, 2021, 10:02:46 AM »
More and more sketchy info coming out....

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/huge-development-hand-recount-finds-dominion-voting-machines-shorted-every-republican-windham-new-hampshire-300-votes/

OK, so one recount in New Hampshire resulted in a change of nearly 300 Republican votes. The question is, how sketchy is this? For comparison, I'd suggest the recount in the 2000 presidential election in Florida. Below is a map of the differences in votes in each county upon recount:


Source: https://www.gislounge.com/campaign-2000-the-recount/

That's four counties where the recount resulted in over 200 more votes for Gore, and almost all the counties had some change. I don't think that this inherently implies fraud, though. It seems to me pretty common for some counties to have some human error that messes up the vote. Almost no counties had no change in the map above. There are lots of recounts every year, and from what I can see, every one of them results in significant differences on a county-by-county level. The link below only includes notable recounts, but there are lots more if you include minor state and local level elections.

https://ballotpedia.org/Noteworthy_recounts_in_the_United_States

Based on this, I don't think there is any reason to claim that recount differences imply fraud programmed into voting machines.

Further, this isn't even about Dominion. From your own link:

Quote
In New Hampshire, he noted, the AccuVote optical scanners used in all communities that have voting machines are an “older technology” and each moderator uses the device’s results tape, at the end of the night, to reveal the results, on a paper “Return of Votes” form. AccuVote devices have been used for more than a quarter of a century in the state and are the only devices approved by the Ballot Law Commission.

“The device was originally manufactured by Unisys, then by Global Elections Systems Inc., which are no longer in business,” Yen said. “The device used in New Hampshire is no longer being manufactured. Dominion (Voting Systems) owns the intellectual property of the AccuVote and its related election management system but does not manufacture the device.”

So the devices were manufactured and purchased by New Hampshire before Dominion had any relation to it.

It's the unidirectional nature and the differential between how much D votes changed versus R votes. Statistically it's a bit sketchy to me, and who said anything about Dominion? I certainly didn't.
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jhkim

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #800 on: February 12, 2021, 12:28:40 PM »
More and more sketchy info coming out....

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/huge-development-hand-recount-finds-dominion-voting-machines-shorted-every-republican-windham-new-hampshire-300-votes/

OK, so one recount in New Hampshire resulted in a change of nearly 300 Republican votes. The question is, how sketchy is this? For comparison, I'd suggest the recount in the 2000 presidential election in Florida. Below is a map of the differences in votes in each county upon recount:


Source: https://www.gislounge.com/campaign-2000-the-recount/
...
Further, this isn't even about Dominion.

It's the unidirectional nature and the differential between how much D votes changed versus R votes. Statistically it's a bit sketchy to me, and who said anything about Dominion? I certainly didn't.

The article you linked has the headline "Hand Recount Finds Dominion Owned Voting Machines Shorted EVERY REPUBLICAN Candidate". That phrasing explicitly claims that the Dominion-owned voting machines are responsible for the discrepancy.

As for the statistical significance: It seems to me highly likely that this was not just a randomly chosen county. Rather, I suspect that people have pored over the hundreds of recounts in the 2020 General Election, and this one was selectively reported on because it was an outlier. As noted in the 2000 map of Florida - usually recounts are off by a little, but every so often there is a screw-up in either one of the counts where there is a discrepancy of hundreds. For example, here is the results for Hall County in Georgia in 2020, which I found by search:

https://www.gainesvilletimes.com/news/politics/latest-twist-recount-finished-its-tally-wont-be-officially-certified/

The recount resulted in 76 additional votes for Trump, 30 additional votes for Biden, and 14 additional votes for Jorgensen -- for a total of 120 additional votes. That's a mild outlier, I think - the reason it came up on my Google search for recounts is because the discrepancy was widely linked and noted. The biggest discrepancy in 2020 that I know of was 2600 votes in Floyd County Georgia:

Quote
A recount in Georgia’s presidential race found more than 2,600 ballots in Floyd County that hadn’t originally been tallied, likely helping President Donald Trump reduce his 14,000-vote deficit to Joe Biden.

Trump could gain nearly 800 net votes from the discovered ballots. There were 1,643 new votes for Trump and 865 for Biden.

The problem occurred because county election officials didn’t upload votes from a memory card in an ballot scanning machine, said Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager.

He called it “an amazing blunder” and said the county’s elections director should resign.

“It’s not an equipment issue. It’s a person not executing their job properly,” Sterling said. This is the kind of situation that requires a change at the top of their management side."
Source: https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-recount-uncovers-2600-new-votes-in-presidential-race/I75NSPYYGNF43HQZBPYKJWJ5MA/

But these are both outliers. For example, in North Carolina there was a 2020 recount for the State Supreme Court vote, and the biggest discrepancy among any counties was 22.
Source: https://www.ncsbe.gov/2020-statewide-recount-results


shuddemell

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #801 on: February 12, 2021, 01:29:55 PM »
More and more sketchy info coming out....

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/huge-development-hand-recount-finds-dominion-voting-machines-shorted-every-republican-windham-new-hampshire-300-votes/

OK, so one recount in New Hampshire resulted in a change of nearly 300 Republican votes. The question is, how sketchy is this? For comparison, I'd suggest the recount in the 2000 presidential election in Florida. Below is a map of the differences in votes in each county upon recount:


Source: https://www.gislounge.com/campaign-2000-the-recount/
...
Further, this isn't even about Dominion.

It's the unidirectional nature and the differential between how much D votes changed versus R votes. Statistically it's a bit sketchy to me, and who said anything about Dominion? I certainly didn't.

The article you linked has the headline "Hand Recount Finds Dominion Owned Voting Machines Shorted EVERY REPUBLICAN Candidate". That phrasing explicitly claims that the Dominion-owned voting machines are responsible for the discrepancy.

As for the statistical significance: It seems to me highly likely that this was not just a randomly chosen county. Rather, I suspect that people have pored over the hundreds of recounts in the 2020 General Election, and this one was selectively reported on because it was an outlier. As noted in the 2000 map of Florida - usually recounts are off by a little, but every so often there is a screw-up in either one of the counts where there is a discrepancy of hundreds. For example, here is the results for Hall County in Georgia in 2020, which I found by search:

https://www.gainesvilletimes.com/news/politics/latest-twist-recount-finished-its-tally-wont-be-officially-certified/

The recount resulted in 76 additional votes for Trump, 30 additional votes for Biden, and 14 additional votes for Jorgensen -- for a total of 120 additional votes. That's a mild outlier, I think - the reason it came up on my Google search for recounts is because the discrepancy was widely linked and noted. The biggest discrepancy in 2020 that I know of was 2600 votes in Floyd County Georgia:

Quote
A recount in Georgia’s presidential race found more than 2,600 ballots in Floyd County that hadn’t originally been tallied, likely helping President Donald Trump reduce his 14,000-vote deficit to Joe Biden.

Trump could gain nearly 800 net votes from the discovered ballots. There were 1,643 new votes for Trump and 865 for Biden.

The problem occurred because county election officials didn’t upload votes from a memory card in an ballot scanning machine, said Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager.

He called it “an amazing blunder” and said the county’s elections director should resign.

“It’s not an equipment issue. It’s a person not executing their job properly,” Sterling said. This is the kind of situation that requires a change at the top of their management side."
Source: https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-recount-uncovers-2600-new-votes-in-presidential-race/I75NSPYYGNF43HQZBPYKJWJ5MA/

But these are both outliers. For example, in North Carolina there was a 2020 recount for the State Supreme Court vote, and the biggest discrepancy among any counties was 22.
Source: https://www.ncsbe.gov/2020-statewide-recount-results

Could be outliers, but that would be speculation on your part ("seems to me to be highly likely.."), which has little probity until further information is available. And yes, the intellectual property is owned by Dominion, but that specifically wasn't the point I was making. Seems awfully strange that such an unusual election has such a large number of widespread anomalies, which in and of itself is statistically highly unlikely. ymmv I am curious, for you, how many of these statistically unlikely events are required to convince you something is afoot, or do you require a confession from Biden or his team... wait he actually already made a preemptive confession...
"We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics," Biden said in the video.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 02:08:22 PM by shuddemell »
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jhkim

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #802 on: February 12, 2021, 04:46:31 PM »
Could be outliers, but that would be speculation on your part ("seems to me to be highly likely.."), which has little probity until further information is available. And yes, the intellectual property is owned by Dominion, but that specifically wasn't the point I was making. Seems awfully strange that such an unusual election has such a large number of widespread anomalies, which in and of itself is statistically highly unlikely. ymmv I am curious, for you, how many of these statistically unlikely events are required to convince you something is afoot, or do you require a confession from Biden or his team...

I agree that it is speculation on my part without further information, but you presented far less information than I did. So, here's what I can find with a little further digging.

I previously showed the spread across Florida in the 2000 recount, where four counties had over +200 votes for Gore, and none with more the +73 for Bush.

Here is the full breakdown of the hand recount in Georgia 2020:

https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/historic_first_statewide_audit_of_paper_ballots_upholds_result_of_presidential_race

The biggest shifts favoring Biden were in Cobb and Dekalb counties (+560 and +315). The biggest shifts favoring Trump were in Fulton and Gwinnett counties (+345 and +285). Still, most counties had a recount difference of less than 20, and these were the outliers.

For another comparison, here is the breakdown of the 2008 recount in Minnesota for U.S. Senate, where Al Franken won after recount.

https://web.archive.org/web/20090121144412/http://www.sos.state.mn.us/docs/recount_summary_with_ab.pdf

The biggest shifts favoring Franken were in Hennepin and Ramsey counties (+150 and +81). The biggest shifts favoring his opponent Coleman were in Becker and Wright counties (+21 and +9).

So these are three full recounts - not randomly chosen, but their information was easier to search for because they made a lot of news.

The claim is that the one recount with +300 for Republicans in New Hampshire is suspicious, but based on my sampling, I see that a number of county-level recounts have generated near or greater discrepancies than this. I suspect that in a mathematical analysis, these errors aren't truly random in the sense of a mathematically smooth distribution. They are most likely human error, which can have all sorts of systematic biases.

Brad

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #803 on: February 12, 2021, 08:16:38 PM »
Oh so I see 2000 Florida is a thing again? Don’t worry, Comrade Kim, Bush was a bigger deep state asset than Gore could have ever been.
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shuddemell

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #804 on: February 12, 2021, 08:25:37 PM »
And, could not the systemic bias by humans be ideologically motivated, perhaps? If so, that casts suspicion on the whole process. Your analysis is good and well presented, though you don't address the one sided nature of the shift, but it definitely is food for thought.
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Trond

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #805 on: February 12, 2021, 10:50:01 PM »
Something a bit interesting happened in the mainstream media today. Many of them, because they wanted to show the full impeachment proceedings live, were showing videos or tape clips that they had unfairly edited before (and played numerous times). I listen to KPCC radio quite often, despite very often disagreeing with them (or because of it?), and it was remarkable to hear the defense present Trump's quotes in context, including the defense interpretation. Apparently many pointed out this with CNN as well. It was almost weird to see any kind of defense of Trump on those channels, even if not accepted as such by the media.

jhkim

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #806 on: February 13, 2021, 01:05:59 AM »
I previously showed the spread across Florida in the 2000 recount, where four counties had over +200 votes for Gore, and none with more the +73 for Bush.
...
The biggest shifts favoring Biden were in Cobb and Dekalb counties (+560 and +315). The biggest shifts favoring Trump were in Fulton and Gwinnett counties (+345 and +285).
...
The biggest shifts favoring Franken were in Hennepin and Ramsey counties (+150 and +81). The biggest shifts favoring his opponent Coleman were in Becker and Wright counties (+21 and +9).
The claim is that the one recount with +300 for Republicans in New Hampshire is suspicious, but based on my sampling, I see that a number of county-level recounts have generated near or greater discrepancies than this. I suspect that in a mathematical analysis, these errors aren't truly random in the sense of a mathematically smooth distribution. They are most likely human error, which can have all sorts of systematic biases.
And, could not the systemic bias by humans be ideologically motivated, perhaps? If so, that casts suspicion on the whole process. Your analysis is good and well presented, though you don't address the one sided nature of the shift, but it definitely is food for thought.

I think there could be some ideological bias in these human counting errors - and these would presumably effect hand counts the most. The question is, how big of an effect is that?

No election is perfect. There's always potential for some fraud, some bias, and some error. The key question is how much of it is there. In modern U.S., there are a dozen or so cases of criminal fraud prosecuted every election, and probably at least a few dozen more who get away with it. It doesn't seem to me that there's any clear pattern to the recount shifts, but there could be some fraction of recount errors that are ideological bias. But recounts usually shift things 0.05% or less overall.

For what it's worth, in Minnesota 2008, the outlying count changes did go in the direction of the county -- i.e. the two biggest shifts for Franken were Democratic counties, and the two biggest for Coleman were Republican. But in Georgia 2020, the counties that shifted most towards Trump were Democratic counties, but conversely the ones that shifted most towards Biden were also Democratic. I'm sure an actual statistical study of this by someone who puts real time into it could come up with a bunch more, but they wouldn't be headline-grabbing, outrage-generating clickbait. It would just be boring-sounding political science.

Ghostmaker

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #807 on: February 13, 2021, 11:20:47 AM »
Something a bit interesting happened in the mainstream media today. Many of them, because they wanted to show the full impeachment proceedings live, were showing videos or tape clips that they had unfairly edited before (and played numerous times). I listen to KPCC radio quite often, despite very often disagreeing with them (or because of it?), and it was remarkable to hear the defense present Trump's quotes in context, including the defense interpretation. Apparently many pointed out this with CNN as well. It was almost weird to see any kind of defense of Trump on those channels, even if not accepted as such by the media.
Could be because they know they're treading on very thin ice with this impeachment.

I mean, we could always impeach Barack Obama and Eric Holder for their roles in the 'Fast and Furious' debacle.

Ratman_tf

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #808 on: February 13, 2021, 05:22:16 PM »
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Brad

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Re: LIVE COVERAGE of Rally for President Trump in DC! 01/06/2021
« Reply #809 on: February 13, 2021, 07:34:02 PM »
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-acquitted-impeachment-trial-7-gop-senators-vote-democrats-convict-n1257876

The Dems and establishment Repubs have shot themselves in the foot again.

I’d still like to hear how this sham was remotely Constitution considering Roberts didn’t even preside over the hearings...right there in black and white. “But law scholars!” Yeah...illiterate fucktards who have fooled a great majority of people of all sorts of things like somehow random edicts spouted by minor tyrants have any sort of legitimacy. This is pure theatre meant to show us they DGAF what the law says, they’re going to do whatever they want.
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