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Author Topic: Here's your Mask Protocol  (Read 23330 times)

Pat

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #630 on: September 01, 2021, 10:16:04 AM »
An actual randomized control study on masks and Covid:
Interesting, I'll have to look it over. But it's not promising that they start out with a blatant lie: "This was the first large-scale randomized evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of masks in a real-world setting." (No, this was the first.)

Mistwell

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #631 on: September 01, 2021, 01:15:16 PM »
An actual randomized control study on masks and Covid:
Interesting, I'll have to look it over. But it's not promising that they start out with a blatant lie: "This was the first large-scale randomized evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of masks in a real-world setting." (No, this was the first.)

Well no that was about the effectiveness of adding a mask recommendation.

Pat

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #632 on: September 01, 2021, 02:12:24 PM »
An actual randomized control study on masks and Covid:
Interesting, I'll have to look it over. But it's not promising that they start out with a blatant lie: "This was the first large-scale randomized evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of masks in a real-world setting." (No, this was the first.)

Well no that was about the effectiveness of adding a mask recommendation.
And the new study is using about different strategies to get people to wear masks, including recommendations. Both studies meet the "large-scale randomized evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of masks in a real-world setting" criteria, it's just Danmask was first.

Zelen

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #633 on: September 04, 2021, 01:48:08 PM »
I've looked over the Bangladesh study (Bangladesh Mask RCT), but it doesn't really seem like either a (1) very good study or (2) very good argument for masks.

(1) There's numerous methodological flaws with the study. The most important one is that they didn't use a baseline measurement of seroprevalence in the cohort populations. Without an established baseline you cannot measure change, so the findings of the study could easily be noise. We're supposed to assume that the criteria they used to randomize the populations had equal starting seroprevalence points, but we (and they) don't know that.

(2) The study doesn't demonstrate any effect for the under 50yo population. The study's results within the 95% CI can't rule out negative (for cloth) or no effect (for surgical). That's a pretty weak case.

We can go on and on and nitpick about it, but realistically I can't put any confidence in a study that's failing on both (1) and (2) here.


Nitpicking phase:

The mechanism by which seroprevalence is affected in an age-specific way is pretty unclear, and suggests to me that the more important thing here is not the masking element of the study, but the educational & enforcement aspect of the study leading to different behaviors. The study's seroprevalence measurement was only in symptomatic volunteers, and I don't think it's at all unlikely that people in the groups that were being instructed by local authorities (& paid for participation) knew the desirable outcome and thus this impacted reporting rates.

This isn't directly related to the study itself, but the results they are claiming are hard to square with real world data. The study discusses increasing mask usage from a baseline of 13% to 42%. In most developed countries mask usage for 2020-2021 was over 90% for months at a time. What we distinctly don't have is any demonstration in any locale that masks themselves were responsible for any kind of effect like the study claims. It's possible, since what the study is assessing is different from the normal measurement metrics (e.g. cases/hospitalization/deaths). We don't have any knowledge of how seroprevalence relates to metrics we actually care about (hospitalization/deaths).

Pat

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #634 on: September 04, 2021, 02:11:53 PM »
The p values also cluster around 0.05, which is the minimum standard for significance. Some are just above, some are below. Which indicates the conclusions are pretty weak. The exception is the p values for people over 60 are much lower, and thus a much stronger signal.

But as I've mentioned, the biggest issue goes back to what the study measures, which is not the effect of wearing masks. What it's actually measuring is the result of campaigns promoting the wearing of masks. And this isn't a minor technical distinction. It's quite possible that promotional campaigns about covid caused people to change their behavior in other ways, and those changes would lead to less spread of the disease, even if the masks themselves were completely ineffective. In fact, the study itself demonstrates that other behavior changed, because they measured social distancing, and it was higher in villages that were the targets of promotional campaigns.

The Bangladesh study is another new data point, but the Danmask study remains the best on the subject, and the weakness of the new study's results compare with the other weak positives from much smaller studies.

FelixGamingX1

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #635 on: September 04, 2021, 07:17:22 PM »
Love the new signs being displayed in stores near me “If you’re not fully Vaxxed, then you must wear a mask” just about everyone in the store was wearing one. I guess if you insist hard enough and continue paying people to stay home you eventually domesticate even the wildest of mammals.

Do you guys roleplay with your masks on? Don’t forget to spray that nasty dice.
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Shasarak

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #636 on: September 04, 2021, 07:41:43 PM »
Love the new signs being displayed in stores near me “If you’re not fully Vaxxed, then you must wear a mask” just about everyone in the store was wearing one. I guess if you insist hard enough and continue paying people to stay home you eventually domesticate even the wildest of mammals.

Do you guys roleplay with your masks on? Don’t forget to spray that nasty dice.

It must be tough having almost everyone being unvaccinated.

Luckily they have masks to compensate.
There will be poor always,
pathetically struggling,
look at the good things you've got! -  Jesus

oggsmash

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #637 on: September 04, 2021, 08:20:01 PM »
Love the new signs being displayed in stores near me “If you’re not fully Vaxxed, then you must wear a mask” just about everyone in the store was wearing one. I guess if you insist hard enough and continue paying people to stay home you eventually domesticate even the wildest of mammals.

Do you guys roleplay with your masks on? Don’t forget to spray that nasty dice.

  I see those signs, and they make me laugh.  How in the world would the store have any idea who is or is not vaccinated?  Moreover, I see people who will wear a mask who I am almost certain, are vaccinated.   It is a strange world. 

dkabq

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #638 on: September 19, 2021, 09:08:13 AM »
I assume everyone following the SCIENCE!(tm) is scrupulously following the masking guidelines for their two-year or older children:
https://twitter.com/456trainMama/status/1439209826668658688

dkabq

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FelixGamingX1

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #640 on: September 19, 2021, 04:30:37 PM »
Congratulations To Denmark! Got room for one more?

A lore-rich, dark fantasy setting is yours for the taking.
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Zelen

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #641 on: September 22, 2021, 01:41:22 AM »
Trouble with Denmark is ... They already played along. Are they going to resist pressure to lockdown and impose the same restrictions they already had through the winter surge? I hope so, but I doubt it.

dkabq

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #642 on: September 22, 2021, 05:22:22 PM »
Begs an interesting question. If you still have to wear a mask when 100% of everyone is vaccinated, when will you ever not have to wear a mask (other than being the mayor of SF or attending the Emmy's)?

https://youtu.be/uHoYnmUtH7I?t=1292

Mistwell

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #643 on: September 22, 2021, 06:27:56 PM »
Begs an interesting question. If you still have to wear a mask when 100% of everyone is vaccinated, when will you ever not have to wear a mask (other than being the mayor of SF or attending the Emmy's)?

https://youtu.be/uHoYnmUtH7I?t=1292

As someone whose company makes and sells masks, the answer is you will always have to wear a mask!*

[*I kid - nobody buys our masks these days]

dkabq

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Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #644 on: September 22, 2021, 06:44:54 PM »
Begs an interesting question. If you still have to wear a mask when 100% of everyone is vaccinated, when will you ever not have to wear a mask (other than being the mayor of SF or attending the Emmy's)?

https://youtu.be/uHoYnmUtH7I?t=1292

As someone whose company makes and sells masks, the answer is you will always have to wear a mask!*

[*I kid - nobody buys our masks these days]

Well played, sir.  ;D