This is a site for discussing roleplaying games. Have fun doing so, but there is one major rule: do not discuss political issues that aren't directly and uniquely related to the subject of the thread and about gaming. While this site is dedicated to free speech, the following will not be tolerated: devolving a thread into unrelated political discussion, sockpuppeting (using multiple and/or bogus accounts), disrupting topics without contributing to them, and posting images that could get someone fired in the workplace (an external link is OK, but clearly mark it as Not Safe For Work, or NSFW). If you receive a warning, please take it seriously and either move on to another topic or steer the discussion back to its original RPG-related theme.
The message boards have been upgraded. Please log in to your existing account by clicking here. It will ask twice, so that it can properly update your password and login information. If it has trouble recognizing your password, click the 'Forgot your password?' link to reset it with a new password sent to your email address on file.
The RPGPundit's Own Forum Rules
This part of the site is controlled by the RPGPundit. This is where he discusses topics that he finds interesting. You may post here, but understand that there are limits. The RPGPundit can shut down any thread, topic of discussion, or user in a thread at his pleasure. This part of the site is essentially his house, so keep that in mind. Note that this is the only part of the site where political discussion is permitted, but is regulated by the RPGPundit.

Author Topic: Here's your Mask Protocol  (Read 5080 times)

moonsweeper

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #105 on: January 15, 2021, 06:41:47 PM »
While everyone is sword-fighting with statistics, I wonder why the SCIENCE crowd is so quiet about the latest political decisions and just-released lockdown studies?

The lag between linking to favorable science is usually measured in nanoseconds, so the absence is noted

The scientists are waiting to get orders from the government on how to spin it.
They can't go overboard too far in one direction or the other.
"I have a very hard time taking seriously someone who has the time and resources to protest capitalism, while walking around in Nike shoes and drinking Starbucks, while filming it on their iPhone."  --  Alderaan Crumbs

"Just, can you make it The Ramones at least? I only listen to Abba when I want to fuck a stripper." -- Jeff37923

"Government is the only entity that relies on its failures to justify the expansion of its powers." -- David Freiheit (Viva Frei)

jhkim

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8672
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #106 on: January 15, 2021, 08:34:57 PM »
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html (scenario 5 is the best guess)

Thanks. The two CDC pages certainly don't make it easy to compare. They break it down into  different age cohorts for flu than for Covid. Plus one is reported as an infection fatality ratio and the other as numbers per 100,000, so you have to do some math to get comparable figures. But near as I can tell, the Covid mortality rate for 20-49 year olds is ten times higher than the flu mortality rate for 18-49 year olds (0.0002 vs. 0.000019 respectively).

EDITED TO ADD: that said, even if my math is right, I am not super confident in the flu-Covid comparisons except maybe in a broad-brush way. Flu is not reportable, so really hard to get a handle on its prevalence. Just look at the uncertainty intervals in the flu tables, they are huge!
I get that number as well, but I'm not terribly confident without looking over the data a lot more closely. As you noted, the pages aren't terribly friendly or easy to compare.

But that conflicts with other sources, which suggests the flu has an IFR of 0.1% (the CDC's 38 million infected/22K deaths for the last season is 0.57%, i.e. within in a factor of two but not the same) and that COVID-19's is only a few times larger.

22k deaths out of 38 million is 0.057%, not 0.57%. But that is the rate for the flu among all ages - including the very elderly. The rate for those under 50 is much lower.

The 22K deaths from the 2019-2020 flu season is parallel to the 390K total deaths from covid-19.

Shasarak

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2592
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #107 on: January 15, 2021, 11:26:00 PM »
The 22K deaths from the 2019-2020 flu season is parallel to the 390K total deaths from covid-19.

2017-2018 Flu season caused an estimated 80k deaths so it looks like 2019-2020 was a very good year for preventing deaths.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
"There can be no middle ground with bigots. Bigots want to deny the rights and livelihood of people different from them. They want them to cease existing, either by going underground or by murdering them. There is no "let's meet in the middle" with that. To suggest there can be is ignorance" RPGNet

oggsmash

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1264
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #108 on: January 15, 2021, 11:39:13 PM »
EDITED TO ADD: that said, even if my math is right, I am not super confident in the flu-Covid comparisons except maybe in a broad-brush way. Flu is not reportable, so really hard to get a handle on its prevalence. Just look at the uncertainty intervals in the flu tables, they are huge!

Influenza reportedly killed 675,000 Americans in 1918. We're in a similar situation now with 383,000+ dead of Covid-19.

This almost certainly misses indirect deaths, where people can't get hospital care for an unrelated serious health issue because hospitals are too full, or people who hesitate to seek medical care where capacity exists that would save them because they're afraid of being exposed. White room comparison the two diseases is false comfort, even for people who don't care about anyone older than 50.
  US population was 103.2 million in 1918.  That is a massive proportional difference.  Add in the average life span in 1918 was a bit over 50 (far fewer elderly and sick people to die from the flu) and tossing numbers like that around sort of makes it look like you are attempting to manipulate facts. 

jhkim

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8672
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #109 on: January 15, 2021, 11:43:15 PM »
The 22K deaths from the 2019-2020 flu season is parallel to the 390K total deaths from covid-19.

2017-2018 Flu season caused an estimated 80k deaths so it looks like 2019-2020 was a very good year for preventing deaths.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

Fair enough. I think the average is somewhere in the middle. 2019-2020 was unusually low, but 2017-2018 was unusually high. Your own link says Overall, the United States experienced one of the most severe flu seasons in recent decades. Severity is based on flu activity, hospitalizations, and deaths from pneumonia or influenza, explained Nordlund. She added, "across the board, last year was definitely bad."

Here's a graph I found. (It shows the 2017-2018 deaths as 61,000 rather than 80,000 which is also what I see on the CDC website.)



Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/10/07/how-many-americans-die-from-the-flu-each-year-infographic/?sh=5b36aee713ea
cf. also https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm

So, let's call it 40,000 average.

oggsmash

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1264
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #110 on: January 15, 2021, 11:48:58 PM »
Question, how many here have had COVID or know someone that has had it?

  about 12 people.  7 fairly well, and the other 5 in passing.  7 of them are over 70.  4 are in their 20's and one is a 40+ with some pre existing health issues.  No fatalities, one hospitalization (pre existing conditions, over 70, and though the research is not solid yet, a susceptible blood type).

Yeesh, this sort of thing makes me very happy I'm living in Korea. I'm in contact with all kinds of people through my work and ZERO of them have even come into contact with anyone with the virus, at least as far as Korea's very active contact tracing can tell. Like I said upthread the closest I've got to a link to the virus is a worker at my secretary's daughter's daycare who was working with a different batch of kids.

  In fairness I have a pretty broad net of people I know or who have crossed paths with, all across the USA.  I did leave a fellow out, who I think also got hospitalized, but is out now and headed to full recovery.  He was also 70+ and had a list of health issues.  So 13 total (and in fairness, he is still having breathing issues, so no way to be certain of how his story ends).

Ratman_tf

  • Alt-Reich Shitlord
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5993
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #111 on: January 16, 2021, 07:22:27 AM »
Did any of you miss what the Dems are saying? Don't worry about the COV! I mean, it's 2021 ~ Orange-man Gone ~ Time to RE-OPEN! FUCK THE SCIENCE! ITS RAY-CIS'd ANYWAY!
https://twitter.com/cbschicago/status/1349778522240389124

I didn't. I'm so used to horseshit about Covid I'm not surprised.

I wonder if masks are next? Who knows what tomorrow's right-think about Covid will be...
The notion of an exclusionary and hostile RPG community is a fever dream of zealots who view all social dynamics through a narrow keyhole of structural oppression.
-Haffrung

SHARK

  • Great White Hope
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2676
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #112 on: January 16, 2021, 07:36:07 AM »
Greetings!

Golly, isn't it so wonderful that we have Biden and Kamala leading the way for America in the Covid era? Just bow down and suck Kamala's ass, and give thanks to the ever-wise and benevolent Democrats.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
"It is the Marine Corps that will strip away the fa├žade so easily confused with self. It is the Corps that will offer the pain needed to buy the truth. And at last, each will own the privilege of looking inside himself  to discover what truly resides there. Comfort is an illusion. A false security bred from familiar things and familiar ways. It narrows the mind. Weakens the body. And robs the soul of spirit and determination. Comfort is neither welcome nor tolerated here."

"Courage is not the absence of fear, but is doing what you have to, in spite of the fear."
"Let Death and Fire Be Their Portion!"
"Delenda Est Parthia!"

Garry G

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • G
  • Posts: 275
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #113 on: January 16, 2021, 06:22:28 PM »
Greetings!

Golly, isn't it so wonderful that we have Biden and Kamala leading the way for America in the Covid era? Just bow down and suck Kamala's ass, and give thanks to the ever-wise and benevolent Democrats.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

To be fair it's got to be better than the last shower of glaikit shite.
I'm still having a go at Keeping Cthulhu

Catulle

  • Newbie
  • *
  • C
  • Posts: 40
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #114 on: January 16, 2021, 09:55:16 PM »
Greetings!

Golly, isn't it so wonderful that we have Biden and Kamala leading the way for America in the Covid era? Just bow down and suck Kamala's ass, and give thanks to the ever-wise and benevolent Democrats.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK

To be fair it's got to be better than the last shower of glaikit shite.

<3

consolcwby

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 308
  • Feel the despair!
    • View Profile
Re: Here's your Mask Protocol
« Reply #115 on: January 16, 2021, 11:35:20 PM »
Greetings!

Golly, isn't it so wonderful that we have Biden and Kamala leading the way for America in the Covid era? Just bow down and suck Kamala's ass, and give thanks to the ever-wise and benevolent Democrats.

Semper Fidelis,

SHARK
Now, now, let's be fair! Biden and Kamala won fair and square! I know it's true! CNN, MSNBC, and PBS told me so, why would they lie??  ::)
And in other news: Leading weather reports state that once the current ice age ends, the flying pigs and their cat waifus will drown in all the fresh water! HAH! Like water has ever been anything other than salty! What a conspiracy theory! It's like what Cinderella told me yesterday: There's a sucker born every half millenia or so!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------                    snip                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   https://youtu.be/Br3LRj2pwAs