Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?

[Ocule]

They're mad because dems are still cheating their asses off and still losing. I was hoping for more of a wave but things are definitely shifting. At least the way things are going it seems to have put a bandage on the wound, but surgical intervention is still required.

[Jaeger]

They're mad because dems are still cheating their asses off and still losing. I was hoping for more of a wave but things are definitely shifting. At least the way things are going it seems to have put a bandage on the wound, but surgical intervention is still required.

The red wave was never going to happen.

In a normal time, in a normal country, voters would reject record gas prices, record inflation, record crime rates, war, and corruption.

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Before 2020, with the exception of the 2000 Bush v Gore Florida debacle. We knew who won on election night. The same with mid term elections like we just had, until 2020 they have been done and dusted on election night for longer than most here have been alive.

There were enough anomalies documented in 2020, and many that are currently being documented now, that if you still believe that we are getting "fair" national elections at this point: You are a midwit.

Yes, Republicans dominated in states like Florida and Ohio, where they took real measures to cut down on Democrat fraud with their mail-in ballots, bloated voter rolls, ballot trafficking and manufacturing operations.

But states like California? New York? They will never turn Republican. Ever. No matter how bad things get.

Republicans believed they would have a great midterm. They forgot that America is now under the control of the Left.

[KindaMeh]

 Slow counting/not calling it the night of's not the problem, I was up past 1:00 where I'm at and blue was winning pretty consistently throughout the night, including when I hit the hay. Now Wisconsin got called a bit ago today, Nevada's reddish in hue due to drop-off mail-in ballots placed in drop boxes the day of the election, (2.5% lead for Laxalt, flipping a 3.5% lead by Cortez-Masto past midnight, though the 20% of the vote remaining is gonna contain the Democratic mail vote and provisional stuff)  and Sisolak at least is pretty certainly out because Laxalt as an election denier did notably more poorly than Lombardo the moderate. Arizona a lot of what's being counted now is Election Day mail ballots, which in that particular state where a lot of people vote by mail regardless of affiliation they tend to lean Republican the day of. The blue lead there of 4.5 percent will shrink and may even vanish once those are all counted. Georgia has a blue lead, but is going to runoff. So a lot of this benefits Republicans.

New York some house seats flipped red, like more than three. California was weird due to a failed recall attempt, but red did okay there too all things considered. It's not the end of the world, and if DeSantis takes the party primaries, which he is now positioned to potentially do, we can look forward to a solid boost in 2024.

I will readily admit that the pollsters in aggregate roughly got it right this time. Even though I had hoped they wouldn't.

[Mistwell]

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Jesus dude the election only ended 17 hours ago and most of those states by law don't even start counting until the election time ends. There are no "days" here and the overwhelming majority of votes cast are already counted now. They're just finishing up with the stragglers, like normal. Nothing nefarious here.

And the polling was pretty close to the results so far. And Republican watchers were out in force and spotted no issues. But you go on with your insane cult conspiracy theories. It couldn't possibly be because Roe vs Wade was actually a popular decision and people are freaked about it being overturned, right?

[This Ends Tonight]

There was a time when election results would come in and one side would have to do some soul searching, grapple with the facts, and then somebody invented conspiracy theories and we were saved the emotional trauma of coming to terms with reality. Now we never lose, it was just rigged. What we think is never unpopular, all the results are fake.

Frankly I think the global elites, including Democratic leadership, are happy with such people, because the less and less tethered you are to reality, the less and less you have any idea what they're doing. Understanding white collar corruption takes serious time and consuming serious news, they'd much rather people watch an idiot on Youtube tell them fake news about mail-in ballot schemes.

[Jaeger]

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Before 2020, with the exception of the 2000 Bush v Gore Florida debacle. We knew who won on election night. The same with mid term elections like we just had, until 2020 they have been done and dusted on election night for longer than most here have been alive.

There were enough anomalies documented in 2020, and many that are currently being documented now, that if you still believe that we are getting "fair" national elections at this point: You are a midwit.
...

Jesus dude the election only ended 17 hours ago and most of those states by law don't even start counting until the election time ends. There are no "days" here and the overwhelming majority of votes cast are already counted now. They're just finishing up with the stragglers, like normal. Nothing nefarious here.
...

Exhibit "A".

MSM & Rino narrative rinse and repeat.

...
The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.
...

Exhibit "B".

A problem so dire that in spite of obvious shenanigans, Trumps endorsed candidates still performed for a total of – 174 wins and 9 losses.

Midwit confirmed.

[KindaMeh]

...
The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.
...

Exhibit "B".

A problem so dire that in spite of obvious shenanigans, Trumps endorsed candidates still performed for a total of – 174 wins and 9 losses.

Midwit confirmed.

In all fairness, almost all of those wins were in safely red areas, (more than 145 election deniers, most of which with Trump endorsements, were already members of the House who voted not to certify, so of course in a red national environment and with red redistricting they'd win re-election) and his battleground choices seem to have flopped, except maybe for Arizona Governor if my late mail votes going Republican theory turns out to be correct. (And her opponent was pretty terrible, in a national climate that favored red, so there's almost no excuse not to win.) He was a primary influencer, (most of the other candidates he got elected were in districts with red representatives who stood up to him whom his picks beat in the primaries) but not a hugely successful general election draw (they underperformed relative to what the candidates they replaced seemed likely to do). If they didn't win with everything they had going in their favor in terms of national fervor, it would be a serious problem for Republican viability at base level, and it was way closer for Republicans more generally than it should have been in several states. Wisconsin shouldn't have come within a point or so, for instance. Election deniers mostly did poorly or at least more poorly than expected in swing states. (3/10 competitive denier candidates for secretary of state have thus far pulled it off, and only in solidly red states. Heck, even in areas that aren't a guaranteed loss yet you see a difference in performance between moderates and not. Ex: Lombardo as opposed to Laxalt, though admittedly Sisolak sucks.) Also look at Alaska, where an anti-Trump Republican is likely to win due to ranked choice voting that pushes things more moderate. The very same system that is being implemented now in Nevada due to Proposition 3. Point being, when it comes down to narrow margins, moderates on both sides seem to be doing better, and that seems to be what will win it these days with things as divided and close as they have been. UNLESS it's Ron DeSantis style conservatism, (behold, 40,000 vote victory previously to 1.5 MILLION margin in a meh Republican season) which both energizes and can capture a wider base without having to rely as much on Trump, who energizes the opposition a lot and not just the party, often in totally avoidable ways. Biden's messaging was basically "I'm not Trump." and it served him well in the opinion polls prior to his taking office. Point being, I feel DeSantis might genuinely be the stronger candidate for a general election, and that's a GOOD THING for Republicans. Trump seems weaker by comparison, albeit not in absolute terms, and this midterm showed that what is basically the party of Trump struggled to eke out a win in very positive national conditions. By contrast, I can see the speculative allure of DeSantis, who seriously overperformed relative to the standard candidates, most of whom are Trump candidates.

[Trond]

Here's another thing to add to the confusion. Despite Republicans underperforming there's this:
DeSantis is possibly the most vocally anti-voke of virtually all of the politicians. He's been quite loud about it, and turned it into action too. And he's the biggest winner of the election.

[3catcircus]

I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.

[Mistwell]

Here's another thing to add to the confusion. Despite Republicans underperforming there's this:
DeSantis is possibly the most vocally anti-voke of virtually all of the politicians. He's been quite loud about it, and turned it into action too. And he's the biggest winner of the election.

Agreed.

Anti-Woke leader is DeSantis now.

Not Trump.

It's time for people to move on from Trump. He's a loser. DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.

[Mistwell]

I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.

Wow you are in deep denial. Biden is basically the least popular President in our lifetimes at the midterms. "Normally" unpopular Presidents have a 40 seat House swing on average. The swing for Biden should EASILY have been 40 or more seats. This was a terrible result given how unpopular Biden is and how bad inflation is, and yet Republicans are barely making gains.

The GOP cannot succeed if its supporters don't hold them accountable when they lose. Trump lost and y'all made excuses. Not the GOP lost a mid-term that should have been an easy win, and here you are making excuses again.

[3catcircus]

I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.

Wow you are in deep denial. Biden is basically the least popular President in our lifetimes at the midterms. "Normally" unpopular Presidents have a 40 seat House swing on average. The swing for Biden should EASILY have been 40 or more seats. This was a terrible result given how unpopular Biden is and how bad inflation is, and yet Republicans are barely making gains.

The GOP cannot succeed if its supporters don't hold them accountable when they lose. Trump lost and y'all made excuses. Not the GOP lost a mid-term that should have been an easy win, and here you are making excuses again.

Why would you think I'm in denial? I clearly stated that some of the races were lost that shouldn't have been. But, unlike you, I'm looking deeper at the data and what it portents. For example, only 75% of the votes in PA were tallied. Could the ones still to be counted all break for Oz? Highly unlikely. But who knows how close he comes - and that's something you have to look at in the event they challenge a Fed court order to allow counting improper mail in ballots after the state supreme court said no - who knows if it would be determined that feds have zero say in what is clearly interference in a state matter - the feds don't get to tell the states how to run their elections. Likewise the polling places in rural red PA that ran out of paper ballots (you had one job and two years to get it done) turning away voters. 

In Houston (I think), a court ordered the polls to stay open for 3 more hours due to problems with voting machines. The same was denied in Maricopa.  Let's see how many provisional ballots swing for Lake.

What *isn't* in the data are all of the local elections - town council, mayor, school board.  How *they* played out is more important for most people because of the local and direct impact - and the butterfly effect on the wider landscape.  A lot of school board elections have just shitcanned leftist board members who were promoting ESG, CRT, etc. This not only directly impacts what gets taught, it impacts who gets hired or fired as a teacher. It impacts who the school contracts with for continuing education for their teachers. No CRT = no CRT curriculum contractor = no profit for friends and family of senators who own companies selling CRT "education" services...

How those 2nd and 3rd order effects in turn impact at the state level is more important than, for example, whether a mentally incompetent stroke victim who leached off his parents well into his 40s wins or loses against a carpetbagger multimillionaire who promoted COVID lockdowns and irreversible sexual mutilation of confused teenagers to determine which of the two represents PA.

[Eirikrautha]

Florida made significant changes to their election rules.  So did NC.  Pennsylvania and Michigan did not (they, in fact, increased the access to mail-in ballots).  AZ also did little to clean up their elections (in fact, the SOS is the Dem nominee for governor) .  This is why neither Fetterman nor Hobbs felt the need to debate... because you debate in order to convince voters to vote for you.  They didn't need to.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/09/big-picture-2020-midterm-elections-highlights-distinct-difference-between-ballots-and-votes/

[Daztur]

With enemies like this, who needs friends?

"Trump Celebrates Republicans LOSING Key U.S. Senate Race"
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-trump-celebrates-republicans-losing-key-u-s-senate-race

With how much the democrats suck, the best thing they have going for them is still "Fuck Trump" since he's such an odious asshole. The Republicans would be in so much better shape today if Hillary had won in 2016, which would surely have lead to a massive red wave in 2020 due to her being comprehensively bad at politics.

[Ratman_tf]

It's time for people to move on from Trump. He's a loser. DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.

Trump was the only interesting thing to happen to politics in my lifetime.

But yes, we're back to picking which pack of assholes get to fuck us over for the next four years.