So, basically, what do we think is gonna happen and what results will we see both at the finale and as things progress?
My personal gut feeling is that the House is a done deal. The question is by how much. Likewise, I think Republicans win all the "toss-up" senate states folks are watching right now. Nevada (hello Sisolak corruption charges and COVID emergency power choices), Wisconsin, Georgia (despite everything), and even Pennsylvania (bad blue debate performance) go red. So I'm guessing at least 52 seats Republican at the end of it, even thinking conservatively
. I also think we're gonna see a "red mirage" in some states because they still have vote by mail and the like, but that even with said mirage existing the wave will potentially carry regardless of that when all votes are in.
Democrats did better in redistricting than expected, but that's mainly just cuz Republicans got greedy and the blues happen to have a lot of constituents whose votes the courts are more likely to protect. And yeah, blue has fewer seats up for grabs, but still, look at their approval rates and things like the national generic ballot and they're pretty vulnerable. Heck, in a lot of deep red congressional races blue's not even on the ballot, so that gives an edge as well in that looking into it there are more Republicans with no Democratic opponents than vice versa, partly due to how local elections are structured. Likewise some people are saying that pollsters are gonna overestimate red this time because after 2016 and 2020 they're looking for credibility in that direction. Maybe, and I guess they got it right in 2018 midterms when Trump wasn't in play directly, but... No. I'm like 90% sure on admittedly somewhat baseless gut instinct that they've underestimated the right again despite the readjustments. Because folks are really angry and are convinced there was fraud, in whatever quantity. Also, the polls for senate which have Democrats winning almost all assume polling bias that will turn out in their favor. I'm not gambling on that, unless it's in the opposite direction. I mean, yes, I guess in theory it could be true, but I say look at the fundamentals: Presidential Approval, Trends For An Incumbent President's Party, The Economy, Etcetera...
More to the point, people are closely watching the polls, sometimes patrolling them, sometimes armed. I think that while this is voter intimidation in some cases it will nonetheless work to shut down would-be votes on the left, or transition them to mail where they may just not arrive on time. (That and many votes by mail will have already been cast, which I guess complicates things a bit cuz I wasn't watching the polling closely at the time, but I feel would benefit Republicans in that partisanship is probably strongest closer to election day.) Very few of the polls are factoring this in, and I think it could be a small but decisive factor in a vote where Republicans are leading the polls by several percentage points among likely (as opposed to just registered) voters, especially with voter enthusiasm factored in. I could also be wrong on magnitude and it could usher in a huge red sweep potentially. It would also be big for Republicans in the end if there was genuine WIDESPREAD AND DEMONSTRABLY/LEGALLY DECISIVE (have to qualify here) fraud confirmable, because presumably it would both open the door to legal challenges and in the moment reduce that by both preventing crime and also admittedly adding some sketchy intimidation bias potentially the other way cuz many voters are easy to spook and blues fear guns even in safe hands. [But I'm less thinking the facts support huge as opposed to modest fraud, given most folks can go to check to see if they voted (so it's hard to impersonate), and given anybody voting twice gets their vote flagged a no go until who committed the crime is figured out. (A second vote happens way less often than I thought, but yeah, they apparently have protocols in place for them pretty much literally everywhere, jhkim actually made a decent point on that one in a prior discussion, though as a counterpoint they don't always coordinate well between states.)] ANYWAYS, point being, I think Republicans have an edge there that none of the polls are considering.
So I dunno, torn between suspecting moderate Republican over-performance relative to the average pollster and an all-out sweep/red wave. What are your own thoughts and speculations?