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Fan Forums => The RPGPundit's Own Forum => Topic started by: KindaMeh on November 07, 2022, 05:55:02 PM

Title: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 07, 2022, 05:55:02 PM
So, basically, what do we think is gonna happen and what results will we see both at the finale and as things progress?

My personal gut feeling is that the House is a done deal. The question is by how much. Likewise, I think Republicans win all the "toss-up" senate states folks are watching right now. Nevada (hello Sisolak corruption charges and COVID emergency power choices), Wisconsin, Georgia (despite everything), and even Pennsylvania (bad blue debate performance) go red. So I'm guessing at least 52 seats Republican at the end of it, even thinking conservatively  ;). I also think we're gonna see a "red mirage" in some states because they still have vote by mail and the like, but that even with said mirage existing the wave will potentially carry regardless of that when all votes are in.

Democrats did better in redistricting than expected, but that's mainly just cuz Republicans got greedy and the blues happen to have a lot of constituents whose votes the courts are more likely to protect. And yeah, blue has fewer seats up for grabs, but still, look at their approval rates and things like the national generic ballot and they're pretty vulnerable. Heck, in a lot of deep red congressional races blue's not even on the ballot, so that gives an edge as well in that looking into it there are more Republicans with no Democratic opponents than vice versa, partly due to how local elections are structured. Likewise some people are saying that pollsters are gonna overestimate red this time because after 2016 and 2020 they're looking for credibility in that direction. Maybe, and I guess they got it right in 2018 midterms when Trump wasn't in play directly, but... No. I'm like 90% sure on admittedly somewhat baseless gut instinct that they've underestimated the right again despite the readjustments. Because folks are really angry and are convinced there was fraud, in whatever quantity. Also, the polls for senate which have Democrats winning almost all assume polling bias that will turn out in their favor. I'm not gambling on that, unless it's in the opposite direction. I mean, yes, I guess in theory it could be true, but I say look at the fundamentals: Presidential Approval, Trends For An Incumbent President's Party, The Economy, Etcetera...

More to the point, people are closely watching the polls, sometimes patrolling them, sometimes armed. I think that while this is voter intimidation in some cases it will nonetheless work to shut down would-be votes on the left, or transition them to mail where they may just not arrive on time. (That and many votes by mail will have already been cast, which I guess complicates things a bit cuz I wasn't watching the polling closely at the time, but I feel would benefit Republicans in that partisanship is probably strongest closer to election day.) Very few of the polls are factoring this in, and I think it could be a small but decisive factor in a vote where Republicans are leading the polls by several percentage points among likely (as opposed to just registered) voters, especially with voter enthusiasm factored in. I could also be wrong on magnitude and it could usher in a huge red sweep potentially. It would also be big for Republicans in the end if there was genuine WIDESPREAD AND DEMONSTRABLY/LEGALLY DECISIVE (have to qualify here) fraud confirmable, because presumably it would both open the door to legal challenges and in the moment reduce that by both preventing crime and also admittedly adding some sketchy intimidation bias potentially the other way cuz many voters are easy to spook and blues fear guns even in safe hands. [But I'm less thinking the facts support huge as opposed to modest fraud, given most folks can go to check to see if they voted (so it's hard to impersonate), and given anybody voting twice gets their vote flagged a no go until who committed the crime is figured out. (A second vote happens way less often than I thought, but yeah, they apparently have protocols in place for them pretty much literally everywhere, jhkim actually made a decent point on that one in a prior discussion, though as a counterpoint they don't always coordinate well between states.)] ANYWAYS, point being, I think Republicans have an edge there that none of the polls are considering.

So I dunno, torn between suspecting moderate Republican over-performance relative to the average pollster and an all-out sweep/red wave. What are your own thoughts and speculations?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 07, 2022, 11:06:09 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/FXbqFFM/image.png)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: DocJones on November 08, 2022, 12:37:25 PM
Prediction

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/03/26/13/2703801900000578-3012823-image-m-67_1427374915809.jpg)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: jhkim on November 08, 2022, 01:12:06 PM
Yeah, I expect the Republicans to take both the House and the Senate at this point. The House will have a somewhat smaller wave than the 2018 blue wave, but that is more than enough to take the House. The Senate just needs slight shift, which predictions are they will do. That seems tough to call, as it depends on a lot of local specifics.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Bruwulf on November 08, 2022, 03:39:07 PM
Pessimistically: Blue wave, because the democrats have spent the last month basically all but saying they weren't going to let the republicans win. IE, all the "calm down, this election will take a while to count" bullshit.

I hope I'm wrong, though.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Lee on November 08, 2022, 05:40:32 PM
Ah man, the salt is going to be deeeelllllicious.  I've got my popcorn and beer ready.

Assuming they don't steal it.  Hopefully it's much harder to steal a bunch of congressional races than a single presidential race, though.  It'll be hilarious to watch all the fraud attempts though.  Lololol.

If it takes more than a day to count, top off your mags and get ready to rock and roll.

The real problem though is, there are so many rino swamp creatures in there that nothing will change anyway.  They'll screw around and do nothing, the same way they always do every time they have a majority in both houses.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Bruwulf on November 08, 2022, 05:50:51 PM
And it starts again in Arizona.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 08, 2022, 07:25:18 PM
And it starts again in Arizona.

I wouldn't read too much into printer ink settings being insufficient in a single county that has 80% of machines not doing that and the option to do stuff manually, big though the county is, FOX says those tech issues are not even a thing anymore as of a bit ago. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the ultimate results. Though it's gonna look a lot more red the night of the election than when everything's said and done, which will confuse some folks. (I bet it looks like a total sweep, whether it ends up being one or not.) Mail votes are a thing and provisionals won't be counted til last in the many states where they apply, like Nevada and Pennsylvania, and they'll be where a lot of the blue voters are. Plus Georgia could go to run-off. That and everybody on both sides is likely to challenge results and ask for recounts if it's close. Senate may be close in the end, given that the democrats have way fewer seats up for grabs and are funneling all their money and efforts to states where the margins look close even for red-leaning pollsters, but I stick with my predictions of red taking all the battleground states.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 08, 2022, 07:25:44 PM
That said, I guess if my gut instincts about some things are wrong, the pollsters more generally could be right, and then we'd see a much tighter setup with better blue odds, unfortunately.

If that turns out to be true and the professionals are on average right... We may not know til Saturday on Pennsylvania and Nevada, though it might look like a close red victory even the day immediately after election night.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: 3catcircus on November 08, 2022, 07:54:01 PM
Ah man, the salt is going to be deeeelllllicious.  I've got my popcorn and beer ready.

Assuming they don't steal it.  Hopefully it's much harder to steal a bunch of congressional races than a single presidential race, though.  It'll be hilarious to watch all the fraud attempts though.  Lololol.

If it takes more than a day to count, top off your mags and get ready to rock and roll.

The real problem though is, there are so many rino swamp creatures in there that nothing will change anyway.  They'll screw around and do nothing, the same way they always do every time they have a majority in both houses.

Here's the thing. Whatever publicly was seen from the 2020 steal, RNC operatives have probably seen the actual shenanigans and are ready to counter them at every turn this year. 

Voter fraud is an arms race and the Dems haven't really had a chance to improve their game - they've been too busy stumbling from one "easily-solvable issue that will become a crisis because of our stupidity, incompetence, hubris, or some combination of all three" to the next over the past two years.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 09, 2022, 12:32:58 AM
No real sign of a "red wave" I'd say, so far. It's coming out pretty close to the polls on average, again so far.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 09, 2022, 01:06:43 AM
Yeah, I appear to have overestimated red. The polls were apparently roughly right in that it was a toss-up for senate and it looks like blue is winning the tosses. 

Edit: Heck, I now think that 16% House victory chance is looking quite plausible. Guess that'll teach me to get ahead of myself and dismiss the experts.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Trond on November 09, 2022, 08:18:02 AM
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 09, 2022, 09:54:50 AM
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.

It's definitely not. "conservative" people (small "c") prefer stability. This was a major upheaval to how we do things, and it didn't come with some new wave of interest behind it pushing this change forward as the topic had actually grown more settled over time since Roe was first decided and not less.

The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.

Not that it makes a huge difference for this event. We're still going to get mostly gridlock until the next Presidential election.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Trond on November 09, 2022, 11:37:29 AM
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.

It's definitely not. "conservative" people (small "c") prefer stability. This was a major upheaval to how we do things, and it didn't come with some new wave of interest behind it pushing this change forward as the topic had actually grown more settled over time since Roe was first decided and not less.

The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.

Not that it makes a huge difference for this event. We're still going to get mostly gridlock until the next Presidential election.

I agree with all of this. I think that even a lot of people who agree with much of what he's saying still feel that Trump=chaos. Part of the chaos is Trump himself, but a big part of it is also that a lot of people just can't handle him no matter what he does. I suspect he reminds them of the bullies in school or something. Interestingly, Hillary Clinton elicits a similar visceral negative reaction in many, even some on the left. In her case, I think she reminds people of the teacher everyone hated :D 
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Ocule on November 09, 2022, 12:51:43 PM
They’re mad because dems are still cheating their asses off and still losing. I was hoping for more of a wave but things are definitely shifting. At least the way things are going it seems to have put a bandage on the wound, but surgical intervention is still required.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Jaeger on November 09, 2022, 03:19:34 PM
They’re mad because dems are still cheating their asses off and still losing. I was hoping for more of a wave but things are definitely shifting. At least the way things are going it seems to have put a bandage on the wound, but surgical intervention is still required.

The red wave was never going to happen.

In a normal time, in a normal country, voters would reject record gas prices, record inflation, record crime rates, war, and corruption.

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Before 2020, with the exception of the 2000 Bush v Gore Florida debacle. We knew who won on election night. The same with mid term elections like we just had, until 2020 they have been done and dusted on election night for longer than most here have been alive.

There were enough anomalies documented in 2020, and many that are currently being documented now, that if you still believe that we are getting "fair" national elections at this point: You are a midwit.

Yes, Republicans dominated in states like Florida and Ohio, where they took real measures to cut down on Democrat fraud with their mail-in ballots, bloated voter rolls, ballot trafficking and manufacturing operations.

But states like California? New York? They will never turn Republican. Ever. No matter how bad things get.

Republicans believed they would have a great midterm. They forgot that America is now under the control of the Left.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 09, 2022, 03:40:27 PM
 Slow counting/not calling it the night of’s not the problem, I was up past 1:00 where I’m at and blue was winning pretty consistently throughout the night, including when I hit the hay. Now Wisconsin got called a bit ago today, Nevada’s reddish in hue due to drop-off mail-in ballots placed in drop boxes the day of the election, (2.5% lead for Laxalt, flipping a 3.5% lead by Cortez-Masto past midnight, though the 20% of the vote remaining is gonna contain the Democratic mail vote and provisional stuff)  and Sisolak at least is pretty certainly out because Laxalt as an election denier did notably more poorly than Lombardo the moderate. Arizona a lot of what’s being counted now is Election Day mail ballots, which in that particular state where a lot of people vote by mail regardless of affiliation they tend to lean Republican the day of. The blue lead there of 4.5 percent will shrink and may even vanish once those are all counted. Georgia has a blue lead, but is going to runoff. So a lot of this benefits Republicans.

New York some house seats flipped red, like more than three. California was weird due to a failed recall attempt, but red did okay there too all things considered. It’s not the end of the world, and if DeSantis takes the party primaries, which he is now positioned to potentially do, we can look forward to a solid boost in 2024.

I will readily admit that the pollsters in aggregate roughly got it right this time. Even though I had hoped they wouldn’t.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 09, 2022, 04:23:34 PM

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Jesus dude the election only ended 17 hours ago and most of those states by law don't even start counting until the election time ends. There are no "days" here and the overwhelming majority of votes cast are already counted now. They're just finishing up with the stragglers, like normal. Nothing nefarious here.

And the polling was pretty close to the results so far. And Republican watchers were out in force and spotted no issues. But you go on with your insane cult conspiracy theories. It couldn't possibly be because Roe vs Wade was actually a popular decision and people are freaked about it being overturned, right?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: This Ends Tonight on November 09, 2022, 05:09:13 PM
There was a time when election results would come in and one side would have to do some soul searching, grapple with the facts, and then somebody invented conspiracy theories and we were saved the emotional trauma of coming to terms with reality. Now we never lose, it was just rigged. What we think is never unpopular, all the results are fake.

Frankly I think the global elites, including Democratic leadership, are happy with such people, because the less and less tethered you are to reality, the less and less you have any idea what they're doing. Understanding white collar corruption takes serious time and consuming serious news, they'd much rather people watch an idiot on Youtube tell them fake news about mail-in ballot schemes.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Jaeger on November 09, 2022, 07:04:42 PM

Yet, the same swing state counties are miraculously having 'issues' again, like they had in 2020 with "counting" continuing days after the 'election'...

Before 2020, with the exception of the 2000 Bush v Gore Florida debacle. We knew who won on election night. The same with mid term elections like we just had, until 2020 they have been done and dusted on election night for longer than most here have been alive.

There were enough anomalies documented in 2020, and many that are currently being documented now, that if you still believe that we are getting "fair" national elections at this point: You are a midwit.
...

Jesus dude the election only ended 17 hours ago and most of those states by law don't even start counting until the election time ends. There are no "days" here and the overwhelming majority of votes cast are already counted now. They're just finishing up with the stragglers, like normal. Nothing nefarious here.
...

Exhibit "A".

MSM & Rino narrative rinse and repeat.


...
The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.
...

Exhibit "B".

A problem so dire that in spite of obvious shenanigans, Trumps endorsed candidates still performed for a total of – 174 wins and 9 losses.

Midwit confirmed.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 09, 2022, 07:35:11 PM
...
The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.
...

Exhibit "B".

A problem so dire that in spite of obvious shenanigans, Trumps endorsed candidates still performed for a total of – 174 wins and 9 losses.

Midwit confirmed.

In all fairness, almost all of those wins were in safely red areas, (more than 145 election deniers, most of which with Trump endorsements, were already members of the House who voted not to certify, so of course in a red national environment and with red redistricting they'd win re-election) and his battleground choices seem to have flopped, except maybe for Arizona Governor if my late mail votes going Republican theory turns out to be correct. (And her opponent was pretty terrible, in a national climate that favored red, so there's almost no excuse not to win.) He was a primary influencer, (most of the other candidates he got elected were in districts with red representatives who stood up to him whom his picks beat in the primaries) but not a hugely successful general election draw (they underperformed relative to what the candidates they replaced seemed likely to do). If they didn't win with everything they had going in their favor in terms of national fervor, it would be a serious problem for Republican viability at base level, and it was way closer for Republicans more generally than it should have been in several states. Wisconsin shouldn't have come within a point or so, for instance. Election deniers mostly did poorly or at least more poorly than expected in swing states. (3/10 competitive denier candidates for secretary of state have thus far pulled it off, and only in solidly red states. Heck, even in areas that aren't a guaranteed loss yet you see a difference in performance between moderates and not. Ex: Lombardo as opposed to Laxalt, though admittedly Sisolak sucks.) Also look at Alaska, where an anti-Trump Republican is likely to win due to ranked choice voting that pushes things more moderate. The very same system that is being implemented now in Nevada due to Proposition 3. Point being, when it comes down to narrow margins, moderates on both sides seem to be doing better, and that seems to be what will win it these days with things as divided and close as they have been. UNLESS it's Ron DeSantis style conservatism, (behold, 40,000 vote victory previously to 1.5 MILLION margin in a meh Republican season) which both energizes and can capture a wider base without having to rely as much on Trump, who energizes the opposition a lot and not just the party, often in totally avoidable ways. Biden's messaging was basically "I'm not Trump." and it served him well in the opinion polls prior to his taking office. Point being, I feel DeSantis might genuinely be the stronger candidate for a general election, and that's a GOOD THING for Republicans. Trump seems weaker by comparison, albeit not in absolute terms, and this midterm showed that what is basically the party of Trump struggled to eke out a win in very positive national conditions. By contrast, I can see the speculative allure of DeSantis, who seriously overperformed relative to the standard candidates, most of whom are Trump candidates.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Trond on November 09, 2022, 08:27:11 PM
Here's another thing to add to the confusion. Despite Republicans underperforming there's this:
DeSantis is possibly the most vocally anti-voke of virtually all of the politicians. He's been quite loud about it, and turned it into action too. And he's the biggest winner of the election.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: 3catcircus on November 09, 2022, 08:30:40 PM
I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 09, 2022, 08:38:50 PM
Here's another thing to add to the confusion. Despite Republicans underperforming there's this:
DeSantis is possibly the most vocally anti-voke of virtually all of the politicians. He's been quite loud about it, and turned it into action too. And he's the biggest winner of the election.
Agreed.

Anti-Woke leader is DeSantis now.

Not Trump.

It's time for people to move on from Trump. He's a loser. DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 09, 2022, 08:41:31 PM
I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.

Wow you are in deep denial. Biden is basically the least popular President in our lifetimes at the midterms. "Normally" unpopular Presidents have a 40 seat House swing on average. The swing for Biden should EASILY have been 40 or more seats. This was a terrible result given how unpopular Biden is and how bad inflation is, and yet Republicans are barely making gains.

The GOP cannot succeed if its supporters don't hold them accountable when they lose. Trump lost and y'all made excuses. Not the GOP lost a mid-term that should have been an easy win, and here you are making excuses again.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: 3catcircus on November 09, 2022, 09:14:51 PM
I'll just say that people are claiming no red wave because of some specific races - NY Gov and PA Senator  races specifically.  PA was always going to go for Lurch. Philly has almost a million registered democrat voter names (whether they're all living and mentally there is a different story). When you look at a map, it's a lot of red per the attached.

When you look at the House races - there is a *lot* of red.  There are many states where they've elected GOP senators in tight races - and it looks like Lake might win AZ governorship.

While it was not a tidal wave, the fact remains that key indicators like Miami-Dade flipping to Republican and Zeldin getting as much of the vote as he did has Dems scared.  They're engaged in a psyop to claim it wasn't a red wave and simultaneously claiming gerrymandering where they lost (including in state-wide governor's races).

If the GOP somehow manages majorities in both houses (I think there are maybe 1 or two races still up), they *must* choose new blood as their leadership. McConnell and Graham have to shown the door. And they need to be tyrannical in wielding power against the Biden admin.  If they get *close* to a majority, they still need to ditch the fossils.

Wow you are in deep denial. Biden is basically the least popular President in our lifetimes at the midterms. "Normally" unpopular Presidents have a 40 seat House swing on average. The swing for Biden should EASILY have been 40 or more seats. This was a terrible result given how unpopular Biden is and how bad inflation is, and yet Republicans are barely making gains.

The GOP cannot succeed if its supporters don't hold them accountable when they lose. Trump lost and y'all made excuses. Not the GOP lost a mid-term that should have been an easy win, and here you are making excuses again.

Why would you think I'm in denial? I clearly stated that some of the races were lost that shouldn't have been. But, unlike you, I'm looking deeper at the data and what it portents. For example, only 75% of the votes in PA were tallied. Could the ones still to be counted all break for Oz? Highly unlikely. But who knows how close he comes - and that's something you have to look at in the event they challenge a Fed court order to allow counting improper mail in ballots after the state supreme court said no - who knows if it would be determined that feds have zero say in what is clearly interference in a state matter - the feds don't get to tell the states how to run their elections. Likewise the polling places in rural red PA that ran out of paper ballots (you had one job and two years to get it done) turning away voters. 

In Houston (I think), a court ordered the polls to stay open for 3 more hours due to problems with voting machines. The same was denied in Maricopa.  Let's see how many provisional ballots swing for Lake.

What *isn't* in the data are all of the local elections - town council, mayor, school board.  How *they* played out is more important for most people because of the local and direct impact - and the butterfly effect on the wider landscape.  A lot of school board elections have just shitcanned leftist board members who were promoting ESG, CRT, etc. This not only directly impacts what gets taught, it impacts who gets hired or fired as a teacher. It impacts who the school contracts with for continuing education for their teachers. No CRT = no CRT curriculum contractor = no profit for friends and family of senators who own companies selling CRT "education" services...

How those 2nd and 3rd order effects in turn impact at the state level is more important than, for example, whether a mentally incompetent stroke victim who leached off his parents well into his 40s wins or loses against a carpetbagger multimillionaire who promoted COVID lockdowns and irreversible sexual mutilation of confused teenagers to determine which of the two represents PA.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Eirikrautha on November 09, 2022, 09:52:14 PM
Florida made significant changes to their election rules.  So did NC.  Pennsylvania and Michigan did not (they, in fact, increased the access to mail-in ballots).  AZ also did little to clean up their elections (in fact, the SOS is the Dem nominee for governor) .  This is why neither Fetterman nor Hobbs felt the need to debate... because you debate in order to convince voters to vote for you.  They didn't need to.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/09/big-picture-2020-midterm-elections-highlights-distinct-difference-between-ballots-and-votes/
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Daztur on November 09, 2022, 10:19:21 PM
With enemies like this, who needs friends?

"Trump Celebrates Republicans LOSING Key U.S. Senate Race"
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-trump-celebrates-republicans-losing-key-u-s-senate-race

With how much the democrats suck, the best thing they have going for them is still "Fuck Trump" since he's such an odious asshole. The Republicans would be in so much better shape today if Hillary had won in 2016, which would surely have lead to a massive red wave in 2020 due to her being comprehensively bad at politics.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 10, 2022, 12:39:02 AM
It's time for people to move on from Trump. He's a loser. DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.

Trump was the only interesting thing to happen to politics in my lifetime.

But yes, we're back to picking which pack of assholes get to fuck us over for the next four years.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 10, 2022, 02:14:22 AM
Florida made significant changes to their election rules.  So did NC.  Pennsylvania and Michigan did not (they, in fact, increased the access to mail-in ballots).  AZ also did little to clean up their elections (in fact, the SOS is the Dem nominee for governor) .  This is why neither Fetterman nor Hobbs felt the need to debate... because you debate in order to convince voters to vote for you.  They didn't need to.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/09/big-picture-2020-midterm-elections-highlights-distinct-difference-between-ballots-and-votes/

Florida may screw some things up but you gotta give them props for counting ballots quickly. Those guys should be a model for the nation on how to get election results done on a timely basis.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: jhkim on November 10, 2022, 02:34:35 AM
Yes, Republicans dominated in states like Florida and Ohio, where they took real measures to cut down on Democrat fraud with their mail-in ballots, bloated voter rolls, ballot trafficking and manufacturing operations.

But states like California? New York? They will never turn Republican. Ever. No matter how bad things get.

Republicans believed they would have a great midterm. They forgot that America is now under the control of the Left.
New York some house seats flipped red, like more than three. California was weird due to a failed recall attempt, but red did okay there too all things considered. It’s not the end of the world, and if DeSantis takes the party primaries, which he is now positioned to potentially do, we can look forward to a solid boost in 2024.

Yeah. New York had 4 seats flip red, which is a huge deal. Florida only had 3 seats flip red.

That goes completely counter to Jaeger's narrative that victory is impossible in California and New York because victory is only possible because of anti-fraud measures.

It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Jaeger on November 10, 2022, 12:16:45 PM
Quote from: link=topic=45492.msg1234454#msg1234454 date=1668058742
DeSantis will do better for the GOP than Trump.

Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and John Kerry agree with this completely.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 10, 2022, 12:25:24 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/rF0T6Kz/image.png)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: jhkim on November 10, 2022, 02:29:19 PM
With enemies like this, who needs friends?

"Trump Celebrates Republicans LOSING Key U.S. Senate Race"
https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-trump-celebrates-republicans-losing-key-u-s-senate-race

With how much the democrats suck, the best thing they have going for them is still "Fuck Trump" since he's such an odious asshole. The Republicans would be in so much better shape today if Hillary had won in 2016, which would surely have lead to a massive red wave in 2020 due to her being comprehensively bad at politics.

Arguably his cheering of O'Shea's loss is parallel to your cheering for Hillary.

But yeah, it is a tricky split within Republicans. And attitudes towards Trump are strange on both sides. Notably, he got the mRNA covid vaccines developed at warp speed and approved for the American public, but neither side credits him with that.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 10, 2022, 02:41:38 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/rF0T6Kz/image.png)

"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Zelen on November 10, 2022, 02:44:05 PM
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 10, 2022, 02:56:40 PM
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?

Gaslighting implies telling you you're crazy when you're not crazy.

Calling out the "stole the election!" is calling crazy people crazy.

To be utterly clear, I called out tons of Democrats when they also were claiming "stole the election" many years ago.

All it is, is blaming the refs for your losses and refusing to take any responsibility for sucking.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 10, 2022, 02:58:45 PM


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 10, 2022, 03:02:42 PM
Mistwell isn't wrong about the outright deniers who wanted impeachment or no certification underperforming. Likewise, even claiming that things like fraud were probably a decisive factor (raising doubts, which seems reasonable from my perspective) doesn't seem to have done as well. Republican voters were split on whether the election was stolen, and a quarter actually think no fraud. Among those who do believe, they were already fired up to vote it seems, but independents and moderates seem to have been turned lukewarm in some places, especially more competitive swing states and the like, by the claims. At least according to the different perspectives and analysis I've been tuning in to. Also, Democratic and left-voting turnout was allegedly motivated in exit polls and the like not only by abortion but also by perceived threats to democracy, especially in those races where denial was front and center. So they may have energized the enemy base a bit while somewhat splitting their own.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: DocJones on November 10, 2022, 06:03:56 PM
It's a red tidal wave.  No more money for Biden's stupid crap.


June 1st was much worse than Jan 6th (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11752998/trump-secure-bunker-friday-george-floyd-protests-white-house/)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: DocJones on November 10, 2022, 06:42:10 PM
"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.
Over 150 Examples Of Democrats Denying Election Results (https://gop.com/research/over-150-examples-of-democrats-denying-election-results-rsr/)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Lee on November 10, 2022, 07:10:22 PM
It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.

Don't worry.  I am sure it will be "fortified" at the 11th hour.  🤡
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 10, 2022, 07:23:43 PM
It still seems likely that the Republicans will take both House and Senate.

It definitely looks more likely than it did on election night and immediately following. We're seeing a reverse of 2020 with red pulling out late game special/mail/late count/11th hour/whatever ballot count wins (ex: Arizona is getting less and less blue). But as far as the odds are concerned, House seems likely red (wasn't the night of), but Senate we'd need to win 2 out of 3 in places that were leaning blue in the standard elections at night's end, of which only one is at all currently red. And Nevada has votes coming in from the blue mail-in voters now to counter the red mail drop-box-ers that gave us lead overnight after blue was leading by over 3.5% when I went to bed past 1. I think a blue majority is more likely, more paths to victory. Also Georgia the run-off drops a high profile LGBTQ or what have you candidate who had 2% of the votes and was siphoning a bit from Warnock, who had the lead in the election against Walker despite that.

Regardless, if red gets less than 230 house seats (probable), the GOP is talking about a possible strategy/messaging change away from what they attempted following after 2020, under Trump. We'll see if that materializes, I guess.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: jeff37923 on November 10, 2022, 10:08:31 PM
Don't you guys get tired of being gaslit by malicious trolls?

Yeah, but they are known to be liars and trolls by the forums.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 10, 2022, 10:13:11 PM
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 10, 2022, 11:09:30 PM
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition. Doesn’t it breaking in favor of the Democrats, allegedly, mean blue keeps Senate? Could you rephrase? Also if you mean it’s going against blue and in favor of the home team for sentence 2, could we perhaps get some sources or a vague narrative as to how?

For instance, in opposition to that claim, with 13% of the vote (much of which is blue mail-in) still left, Cortez-Masto has narrowed Laxalt's lead to around 9,000 votes. And while both FOX and ABC aren't calling Arizona, which means there are expected red votes left in there, as I predicted, for the remaining 20%, a brief tilt towards a narrowing lead gave way to a widened 6% lead for blue in senate as some bluer areas got their ballots counted. So it looks like senate may be hard to gain for red, much as we've been seeing since election night.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 11, 2022, 02:08:04 AM
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition.


You are correct I was tired and typed the opposite word to the one I meant. I meant to say it's looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate regardless of how Georgia eventually breaks. Nevada and Arizona look like they will both go to the Democratic candidate giving the Democrats 50 seats plus the VP to break ties. 
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 11, 2022, 02:37:53 AM
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition.


You are correct I was tired and typed the opposite word to the one I meant. I meant to say it's looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate regardless of how Georgia eventually breaks. Nevada and Arizona look like they will both go to the Democratic candidate giving the Democrats 50 seats plus the VP to break ties.

Well, if they both go blue, I give Walker worse odds in Georgia. Republicans would know he can’t win them the Senate, and he’s a weaker candidate with that in mind. Blue leadership on the other hand would still want to get to 51, because they know Manchin is too sane (comparatively) to approve some of the things they want to pass. That and he could plausibly actually pass a bipartisan bill from the house if left as tie breaking senator. So they may well spend to ensure it doesn’t happen. That and they’ll be hungry for a win to offset their admittedly smaller than expected losses in the house. Maybe. Honestly, my prediction flop on the night of the election means I might need to trust my gut a bit less.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 11, 2022, 04:13:04 AM


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.

Looks like they lumped them all on the same table to me. Am I missing something?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 11, 2022, 08:00:51 AM
Gosh, why am I not surprised that Misty is a dimwit who thinks you have genuinely free and fair elections in the US, and that the Democrats haven't been involved in industrial scale fraud and corruption for decades?

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 11, 2022, 10:25:52 AM


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.

Looks like they lumped them all on the same table to me. Am I missing something?

I mean, they spell it out right? It's not a hard calculation to do. Yes it's all one table about this broad topic but they list the detail so you can see it for yourself.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 11, 2022, 10:27:59 AM
Gosh, why am I not surprised that Misty is a dimwit who thinks you have genuinely free and fair elections in the US, and that the Democrats haven't been involved in industrial scale fraud and corruption for decades?

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

The evidence of corruption and stolen elections turned out to be bogus. It's not like we didn't investigate a shit-ton. It came up bupkis. The worst red flags were extremely tiny errors and ended up favoring Republicans about as much as they favored Democrats and were all on the scale of ordinary human error and not some grand conspiracy to commit fraud. You can't just vibes this kind of thing man, you have to produce the evidence and there wasn't any.

And the nation agrees with me. Not just Democrats - we're seeing the "they stole the election!" crowd fail right now. It was a losing claim.

That said I've made the case for why we should have much more transparent elections with a lot more security measures involved. I've described how the old Bob Dornan case proved we're registering people who are not allowed to vote (mostly from your nation) and we need to fix that.  But not because I think there was mass coordinated cheating (there was not) but because it's the right thing to do. And because when roughly half the nation cares about something that much and it's not that costly to do then you make it a priority. We do still run elections like a third world nation when it wouldn't take much to modernize our system. We should do that.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: The Spaniard on November 12, 2022, 07:57:15 AM

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

This sums it up perfectly
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 12, 2022, 11:32:42 AM

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

This sums it up perfectly

Or not, cuz if we called everything on election night, even past midnight PST, it would’ve been blue, cuz they were leading, often solidly. We needed the slow count rural vote and mail ballot drop box to snag back the lead in Nevada, though it was always likely to be impermanent given the number of mail-in votes confirmable more generally on Election Day. Likewise, Arizona we were hoping for absentee ballots and Election Day mail and the like to go red enough to give us a win in senate, given the state’s unique properties, and it didn’t quite materialize as strongly as hoped, but still staved off a call for blue for quite a bit. Georgia we need that run-off cuz blue effectively won. Alaska it’s a question of if the challenger Republican can get enough votes to breach 50, else the incumbent moderate Republican can win via ranked choice voting. As things stood on election night, you’d probably be displeased to see the moderate take the win, though I wouldn’t have minded. Point being it’s a trend in all these races that the long count favors red chances by actually giving them a shot.

Also, while as a conservative independent I have little skin in the game… RINO to me makes more sense as a term for those who abandoned red’s traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies to chase Trump’s populism than for those who won’t bow and kiss the ring on Trump cuz, for instance, they prefer DeSantis. That and more moderate Republican voters seem to be even a smidge more likely to be lower income on average, so not profiting off of America’s current state any moreso than anybody else, at least according to what the internet brought me on that: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/demographics-and-lifestyle-differences-among-typology-groups/
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: The Spaniard on November 12, 2022, 11:56:13 AM
As an Independent Conservative, we're going to disagree.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Zelen on November 12, 2022, 12:42:18 PM
RINO to me makes more sense as a term for those who abandoned red’s traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies to chase Trump’s populism...

Not really. The MAGA coalition was largely built around a few pillars: End to unlimited immigration, end to forever wars, and bringing American jobs back to America.

All of those are aligned with "traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies." What's not aligned with those policies are: Unlimited immigration & outsourcing to benefit predatory multinational corporations (& to cheat at elections), or pursuing endless foreign wars to benefit Military & Global-Governance profiteers.

The Buckley-ite & Neo"conservative" branches thoroughly sold out the American people to powerful interests. What we call Trump's movement or MAGA is simply an authentic Conservatism that's finally coalesced due to the existential nature of the grievances.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 12, 2022, 12:43:31 PM
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: jeff37923 on November 12, 2022, 12:50:53 PM
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.

Now if we could attach a generator to all of this spin, we could solve the world's clean energy problem.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: KindaMeh on November 12, 2022, 01:14:35 PM
I mean, I get what Zelen is saying about immigration, there he made no departure. But I feel as proven by Biden following through on Trump's Afghanistan plans to disastrous effect, we never should've embraced dove policies if we intend to keep America First relevant within the international political landscape. We need to stay a superpower and part of that is funding our military and applying pressure, whether political, economic or sometimes even otherwise, where necessary to threats. We also kinda abandoned our allies abroad and weakened most of our political alliances that had been built up over decades, which I personally felt was less conservative and more just questionable.

Likewise, I'm all for fair trade over free trade (I wish he had tried to break apart the WTO), but it definitely departed from the Republican mainstream as I perceived it since Reagan.

Also fiscally there was a huge departure. Man doubled our deficit in an up economy/market.

Even culturally, he was friendly to the LGB (but not T) community, and while I'm not gonna fault him for that, the guy wasn't super culturally conservative as proven by his own lifestyle. Definitely not a strong Christian, or fighting for that kinda thing, which used to be pretty strongly linked to conservative principles, though I'm not really gonna complain about changing demographics there.

So I think he did depart from core Republican principles as they stood when he seized the party and changed its meaning. I'm not gonna complain about many of those changes, but calling the people who refused to change their ideology RINOs just doesn't make much sense to me.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: The Spaniard on November 12, 2022, 01:51:35 PM
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.

There's no doubt that Trump is not a typical Republican.  However, those you mention, Romney and McCain in particular, hardly represent traditional Republican values either. 
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Trond on November 12, 2022, 02:03:57 PM
I mean, I get what Zelen is saying about immigration, there he made no departure. But I feel as proven by Biden following through on Trump's Afghanistan plans to disastrous effect, we never should've embraced dove policies if we intend to keep America First relevant within the international political landscape. We need to stay a superpower and part of that is funding our military and applying pressure, whether political, economic or sometimes even otherwise, where necessary to threats. We also kinda abandoned our allies abroad and weakened most of our political alliances that had been built up over decades, which I personally felt was less conservative and more just questionable.

Likewise, I'm all for fair trade over free trade (I wish he had tried to break apart the WTO), but it definitely departed from the Republican mainstream as I perceived it since Reagan.

Also fiscally there was a huge departure. Man doubled our deficit in an up economy/market.

Even culturally, he was friendly to the LGB (but not T) community, and while I'm not gonna fault him for that, the guy wasn't super culturally conservative as proven by his own lifestyle. Definitely not a strong Christian, or fighting for that kinda thing, which used to be pretty strongly linked to conservative principles, though I'm not really gonna complain about changing demographics there.

So I think he did depart from core Republican principles as they stood when he seized the party and changed its meaning. I'm not gonna complain about many of those changes, but calling the people who refused to change their ideology RINOs just doesn't make much sense to me.

I was early in saying I thought Trump was a bad idea as president. Too much nepotism, focus on ego etc.  Still, somehow, I have this bizarre feeling that he wouldn’t have f**ked up as badly as Biden with the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Ratman_tf on November 12, 2022, 05:53:36 PM
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.

I agree. for 40 years Republican meant career politician who aped conservative values while playing the Game of Thrones with Democrats over who gets access to the power and money involved in the apparatus of government.

Trump was an outsider. I feel he was more of a New York Democrat than a Republican, but the Democrats left a huge opening in their terrible governance that Trump took advantage of.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 12, 2022, 09:48:53 PM
Looks like Democrats are keeping the Senate with at least 50 seats, as they take both Arizona and Nevada. They may even gain 1 seat if they win the Georgia runoff election.

This is incompetence. Biden has one of the lowest approval ratings at a midterm election ever and inflation is at its highest level in about 40 years. Inability to gain even a single Senate seat is incompetence. And I put it at the feat of Trump, whose candidates in tight races didn't do their jobs and were for the most part incompetent themselves.  Doctor Oz? Awful candidate.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Trond on November 12, 2022, 10:06:30 PM
Looks like Democrats are keeping the Senate with at least 50 seats, as they take both Arizona and Nevada. They may even gain 1 seat if they win the Georgia runoff election.

This is incompetence. Biden has one of the lowest approval ratings at a midterm election ever and inflation is at its highest level in about 40 years. Inability to gain even a single Senate seat is incompetence. And I put it at the feat of Trump, whose candidates in tight races didn't do their jobs and were for the most part incompetent themselves.  Doctor Oz? Awful candidate.

A bit of that for sure. But mostly abortion, I think. Good. Perhaps now Republicans will learn that abortion is a losing cause.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 13, 2022, 07:22:00 AM
I agree. for 40 years Republican meant career politician who aped conservative values while playing the Game of Thrones with Democrats over who gets access to the power and money involved in the apparatus of government.

Trump was an outsider. I feel he was more of a New York Democrat than a Republican, but the Democrats left a huge opening in their terrible governance that Trump took advantage of.

Precisely. My mind boggles at just how blinkered people are, that they can't see that virtually every candidate on offer represents the Establishment uniparty, not whatever nominal colour of rosette they happen to be wearing.

Career politicians have no principles, they just go to where the money and power are. And most of your "elites" are on the Chinese payroll nowadays, regardless of party.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Tallifer on November 13, 2022, 11:27:39 AM
Even though this election means more flagrant and overbearing cross-dressers and infanticide, at least support for the Ukraine is safe.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 13, 2022, 02:33:45 PM
Even though this election means more flagrant and overbearing cross-dressers and infanticide, at least support for the Ukraine is safe.

You mean at least the Biden's route to launder huge sums of dirty money is safe. You know that's what FTX was for, right?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: 3catcircus on November 13, 2022, 02:37:19 PM
Looks like Democrats are keeping the Senate with at least 50 seats, as they take both Arizona and Nevada. They may even gain 1 seat if they win the Georgia runoff election.

This is incompetence. Biden has one of the lowest approval ratings at a midterm election ever and inflation is at its highest level in about 40 years. Inability to gain even a single Senate seat is incompetence. And I put it at the feat of Trump, whose candidates in tight races didn't do their jobs and were for the most part incompetent themselves.  Doctor Oz? Awful candidate.

There's some of that. There's also the "I've been in office for eleventy-seven terms and am just as much a partyl of the problem as the Dems I claim to oppose" from the likes of McConnell.

The GOP base isn't the issue. It's the leadership that needs to be killed with fire. A guy raising a family in a blue collar wage  in the Midwest didn't give a fuck about *any* of the positions of the leadership of GOP.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: 3catcircus on November 13, 2022, 02:38:55 PM
I agree. for 40 years Republican meant career politician who aped conservative values while playing the Game of Thrones with Democrats over who gets access to the power and money involved in the apparatus of government.

Trump was an outsider. I feel he was more of a New York Democrat than a Republican, but the Democrats left a huge opening in their terrible governance that Trump took advantage of.

Precisely. My mind boggles at just how blinkered people are, that they can't see that virtually every candidate on offer represents the Establishment uniparty, not whatever nominal colour of rosette they happen to be wearing.

Career politicians have no principles, they just go to where the money and power are. And most of your "elites" are on the Chinese payroll nowadays, regardless of party.

Which is why there shouldn't be career politicians. Get back to the original intent of the framers regarding holding of political office in the US.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: DocJones on November 13, 2022, 06:59:44 PM
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy.
Trump ran on virtually the same platform as Pat Buchanan did against George Bush. 
The paleocon versus neocon Republican has been  a thing for a awhile.

Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 14, 2022, 02:08:33 PM
Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/election-deniers-lose-races-for-key-state-offices-in-every-2020-battleground/ar-AA1433zT)
Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, Robert Klemko - Yesterday 1:00 AM

Voters in the six major battlegrounds where Donald Trump tried to reverse his defeat in 2020 rejected election-denying candidates seeking to control their states’ election systems this year, a resounding signal that Americans have grown weary of the former president’s unfounded claims of widespread fraud.

Candidates for secretary of state in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada who had echoed Trump’s false accusations lost their contests on Tuesday, with the latter race called Saturday night. A fourth candidate never made it out of his May primary in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, one of the nation’s most prominent election deniers lost his bid for governor, a job that would have given him the power to appoint the secretary of state. And in Wisconsin, an election-denying contender’s loss in the governor’s race effectively blocked a move to put election administration under partisan control.

Trump-allied Republicans mounted a concerted push this year to win a range of state and federal offices, including the once obscure office of secretary of state, which in many instances is a state’s top election official.

Some pledged to “decertify” the 2020 results, although election law experts said that is not possible. Others promised to decommission electronic voting machines, require hand-counting of ballots or block all mail voting. Their platforms were rooted in Trump’s disproven claims that the 2020 race was rigged, and their bids for public office raised grave concerns about whether the popular will could be subverted, and free and fair elections undermined, in 2024 and beyond.

Election administrators and voting rights advocates said the rebuke of election deniers seeking state-level office was a refreshing course correction by U.S. voters, whose choice of more seasoned and less extreme candidates reflected a desire for stability and a belief that the nation’s elections are in fact largely secure.

“This was a vote for normalcy,” said Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who prevailed against a Democratic opponent Tuesday after defeating U.S. Rep. Jody Hice in the spring primary. Hice, who was endorsed by Trump, spent the campaign attacking Raffensperger for refusing to block Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia.

Voters “were looking for and rewarded character,” Raffensperger said. “They were looking for people who could get the job done. They rewarded competence.”

Elsewhere, the losers included Doug Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania, as well as three candidates for secretary of state — Mark Finchem of Arizona, Jim Marchant in Nevada and Kristina Karamo of Michigan — all of whom sought to overturn the 2020 result. Losing gubernatorial contender Tim Michels in Wisconsin would have had the power to push a Republican plan to eliminate the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission and transfer election administration to the secretary of state or another partisan office.

Of the five who were defeated in the general election, only Michels and Mastriano had conceded as of Sunday.

“Difficult to accept as the results are, there is no right course but to concede, which I do,” Mastriano said in a statement issued Sunday afternoon. He called on supporters to give his opponent, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro, “the opportunity to lead.”

Even though the others have not conceded, most have stopped short of claiming that fraud had tainted their races. Their muted reaction to Tuesday’s outcomes suggested that attacking the integrity of American elections is not a winning formula, at least for state office, voting rights advocates said.

“Republicans are tired,” said Democrat Cisco Aguilar, who was projected late Saturday to have defeated Marchant in Nevada. “They’re seeing that it’s not a winning path. I think they’re hearing the voters.”

Tracking which election deniers are winning, losing in the midterms
As workers in Clark County, Nev., scrambled to count a batch of remaining mail ballots, elections chief Joe Gloria told reporters Saturday that no election-denying candidates had lodged any complaints. Hours later, after officials released new vote totals, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) was projected to win reelection, edging past Adam Laxalt (R), a former state attorney general, and delivering Democrats an expected majority in the next Senate.

Laxalt tweeted earlier on Saturday that it appeared the new batches of votes could block his path to victory.

“If they are GOP precincts or slightly DEM leaning then we can still win,” Laxalt tweeted, in language that signaled a willingness to accept the results even if his opponent won. “If they continue to trend heavy DEM then she will overtake us.”

It was a dramatic contrast to Laxalt’s rhetoric in 2020, when he helped Trump try to overturn Biden’s victory in Nevada, in part by falsely claiming that heavily Democratic batches of mail ballots were illegally dumped into the count after Election Day.

“It’s positive for our country when losers of elections accept their defeat,” said Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold. “American democracy is predicated on that. It’s also good at this point that they’re not flagrantly denying the result.”

Although many candidates denying the outcome of the 2020 vote came up short in their bids for state office, the U.S. House was a different matter. At least 150 election deniers were projected to win their House races as of Saturday — an increase over the 139 Republicans who voted against the electoral college count following the assault on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6, 2021.

Overall, more than 170 election deniers on the ballot for the U.S. House, Senate and key statewide offices were projected to win their elections as of Sunday, according to a Washington Post analysis. The Post identified candidates as election deniers if they questioned Biden’s victory, opposed the counting of Biden’s electoral college votes, expressed support for a partisan post-election ballot review, signed onto a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 result or attended or expressed support for the rally on the day of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

“Election denialism is not going away overnight,” Griswold said. “The attacks on voting rights and the attacks on American democracy will not stop.”

Still, many voters said in interviews that defeating such candidates was a driving force in their votes on Tuesday. Andrew Haber, a 53-year-old child psychologist in Arizona, didn’t vote in the primary election, but he cast his ballot for Democrats after being alarmed by conspiracy theories advanced by the Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lake, and her fellow conservatives.

“When you abandon the process, then how do you steer the ship back in a democratic way?” Haber, a Democrat, said at a polling place in Paradise Valley, outside of Phoenix. “I’m still hopeful we can right the ship, but it would be really hard to do once we have more people holding the levers of power that don’t believe in democracy.”

Matt Kroski, a 43-year-old who has voted for both parties, said he was disturbed by “voter intimidation” efforts he saw Republicans embrace, including armed observers at ballot drop boxes in nearby Mesa. He saw his votes for Democrats in his neighborhood north of Phoenix as an insurance policy for democratic norms.

“I just feel that after the whole ‘Stop the steal,’ it’s very much ‘I didn’t lose, you stole,’ ” Kroski said. “At the end of a sporting game, we know who the winners and losers are, who scored more points, who got more votes. I’m hoping that things stay in place so that at least our votes will count.”

Finchem’s Democratic opponent, Adrian Fontes, had won more votes as of Saturday evening than any other candidate on the Arizona ballot — even the ones in hotly contested races for U.S. Senate and governor.

In an interview, Fontes said he had built a broad coalition that included moderate Republicans and independents. But he also conceded that his success had as much to do with what he wasn’t. “I’m not an insurrectionist,” he said, contrasting his public image with that of Finchem, who is a member of the extremist Oath Keepers group and was photographed outside of the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 attack.

“I think a lot of civic-minded Republicans really didn’t like what Mark Finchem stands for and who he is,” Fontes said.

Finchem has not conceded and has criticized the “fake news” for calling his election for Fontes while officials are still counting ballots. “You don’t quit a marathon on mile 15,” he tweeted Saturday. “Same with elections — they are not over until the last legal vote is counted.”

Griswold and others said several factors fueled what she described as a victory for democracy. First was the quality of the election-denying candidates, who embraced extremist views that most voters recognized and were motivated to reject.

An additional factor was the fact that many Republicans — including Trump — discouraged voters from casting their ballots by mail, a dubious strategy that may have suppressed GOP turnout. Finchem went so far as to urge voters to turn out only at the end of the day Tuesday and to vote provisionally — a convoluted instruction that left some GOP strategists bewildered and alarmed.

Democrats were also aggressive in defining their opponents as election deniers and spending money to emphasize the point. Aguilar spent $1 million airing an ad called “Dangerous,” featuring various election-denying statements from Marchant — and suggesting that the Republican would be willing to rig an election in the future.

“If we get elected, their power is over,” Marchant can be seen saying in the ad. Marchant is a founder of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, a group of pro-Trump, election-denying candidates that included Finchem, Karamo and Mastriano.

The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State and affiliated groups spent historic sums — more than $24 million — on races in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada, said Griswold, who leads the political committee. Four years ago, the group spent less than $3 million.

Even as many election-denying candidates have accepted their defeats quietly, Trump has continued to try to stir up his supporters with unsubstantiated claims that fraud is occurring in Nevada and Arizona as ballot counting continues in both states.

“Clark County, Nevada, has a corrupt voting system (be careful Adam!), as do many places in our soon to be Third World Country,” Trump wrote Thursday on his social media site, Truth Social, referring to the Senate candidate, Laxalt. “Arizona even said ‘by the end of the week!’ — They want more time to cheat!”

The government in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, published a response on its Twitter account calling Trump’s claims “outrageous” and saying “he is obviously still misinformed about the law and our election processes.”

But with Trump expected to announce plans to run for president again in 2024 as soon as Tuesday, his attacks on voting systems are not likely to abate.

Aguilar said secretaries of state have more work ahead of them to tamp down false election claims as 2024 approaches. One of his goals when he takes office in January is to persuade the state legislature to make it a felony to harass or intimidate Nevada election workers, he said. He also hopes to build relationships with election officials in all 17 Nevada counties, including the heavily Republican counties outside of Reno and Las Vegas that are home to many voters who are skeptical of the system.

“My opponent spent a lot of time telling lies, giving misinformation,” Aguilar said. “It’s going to be my responsibility to go out there and break it down and get people to understand that we do have safe and secure elections.”

Jesse Haw, a developer, former state senator and moderate Republican who lost to Marchant in the GOP primary this year, criticized Democrats who spent money elevating Marchant during the nominating battle — a strategy based on the idea that Marchant would be easier to defeat in a general election.

“It was a calculated risk,” Haw said. “The Democrats that I talked to didn’t like it. If this guy had won, it would have really hurt our state.”

But Haw acknowledged: “In this case it worked, so good for them, I guess.”

Haw was happy to share his choice for secretary of state on Tuesday.

“In this day and age, where we’re supposed to be one side or the other, I voted for whoever I think is best for the people of Nevada,” Haw said. “And that wasn’t Mr. Marchant.”
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 14, 2022, 05:24:07 PM
Hope you're enjoying your tax dollars spent on "aid" to Ukraine being laundered back to the Democrats.

(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/644f0367132fedf14a265de9bb2a2932eaf62c741a72ea612274a9b95c42ab9c.png?w=600&h)

Another one of those "coincidences", guess who FTX were partnered with?

(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e6bd7a73707785505772ae455840692898e6ad13e24b96eabe8f79bcde7118a.jpg?w=600&h=833)
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Tallifer on November 15, 2022, 11:05:56 AM
Hmm... I think some people here would have said, "I know Hitler invaded Poland and starved and killed its civilians, but I have found 'evidence' that some of the money spent to aid Poland has been stolen."
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 15, 2022, 01:51:26 PM
Hope you're enjoying your tax dollars spent on "aid" to Ukraine being laundered back to the Democrats.

Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 15, 2022, 01:53:05 PM
Hmm... I think some people here would have said, "I know Hitler invaded Poland and starved and killed its civilians, but I have found 'evidence' that some of the money spent to aid Poland has been stolen."

Exactly. It doesn't matter how bad of an actor Russia is in this fight. The fact that Democrats support Ukraine means the only worthy goal is to find ways to make it look unethical to support Ukraine. Because it's not about doing the right thing for each event - it's about supporting your team and bashing the other team no matter what.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Eirikrautha on November 15, 2022, 03:40:31 PM
Hmm... I think some people here would have said, "I know Hitler invaded Poland and starved and killed its civilians, but I have found 'evidence' that some of the money spent to aid Poland has been stolen."

Exactly. It doesn't matter how bad of an actor Russia is in this fight. The fact that Democrats support Ukraine means the only worthy goal is to find ways to make it look unethical to support Ukraine. Because it's not about doing the right thing for each event - it's about supporting your team and bashing the other team no matter what.

Pot, meet kettle.   Issues with Ukraine being used to enrich politicians and their families goes back 15+ years, so the idea that this is some new complaint is based totally on either your own ignorance or your attempt to frame this for your team.  And your team is the same as their team.  There's not a single opinion you've expressed on these forums that would place you anywhere near the normal conservative today.  So go "hello fellow conservatives" somewhere else...
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 15, 2022, 03:48:09 PM
Hmm... I think some people here would have said, "I know Hitler invaded Poland and starved and killed its civilians, but I have found 'evidence' that some of the money spent to aid Poland has been stolen."

Exactly. It doesn't matter how bad of an actor Russia is in this fight. The fact that Democrats support Ukraine means the only worthy goal is to find ways to make it look unethical to support Ukraine. Because it's not about doing the right thing for each event - it's about supporting your team and bashing the other team no matter what.

Pot, meet kettle...And your team is the same as their team.  There's not a single opinion you've expressed on these forums that would place you anywhere near the normal conservative today.  So go "hello fellow conservatives" somewhere else...

What's my team? I am a moderate independent who can at best be classified as a neo-con. That's not modern Democrats and certainly not progressives. So who is my team here?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 15, 2022, 05:48:59 PM
Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?

You're so stupid, you don't know how dumb you are. Before the false flag in Poland, the FTX story was gaining traction.

You probably think the Ukrainian conflict started this year, since you appear ignorant of anything that the MSM didn't tell you.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: DefNotAnInsiderNopeNoWay on November 15, 2022, 06:29:51 PM
Holy fuck, how does your skull not cave in from your negative IQ.

I'm just glad your IP has already been logged by three letter agencies just like my own for participating in this community of extremists. Go back to stacking your counterfeit silver and spoiled patriot rations, the adults are trying to have a conversation.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 15, 2022, 06:54:04 PM
Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?

You're so stupid, you don't know how dumb you are. Before the false flag in Poland, the FTX story was gaining traction.

You probably think the Ukrainian conflict started this year, since you appear ignorant of anything that the MSM didn't tell you.

Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 15, 2022, 06:59:38 PM
Holy fuck, how does your skull not cave in from your negative IQ.

I'm just glad your IP has already been logged by three letter agencies just like my own for participating in this community of extremists. Go back to stacking your counterfeit silver and spoiled patriot rations, the adults are trying to have a conversation.

I'm sorry, who the fuck are you?
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 16, 2022, 05:09:02 AM
Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?

Yeah, the FTX revelations are so far out on the fringe it's being reported by Fox News:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHDyO463bfM

The Democrats second largest donor, after George Soros. Was planning to donate $1bn to the Democrats for 2024.

You really are a fucking moron. Maybe 6 months from now you'll have heard of Blackrock, Vanguard and StateStreet...
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Mistwell on November 16, 2022, 12:22:52 PM
Oh is that the latest Q-Anon conspiracy theory?

Yeah, the FTX revelations are so far out on the fringe it's being reported by Fox News:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHDyO463bfM

The Democrats second largest donor, after George Soros. Was planning to donate $1bn to the Democrats for 2024.

You really are a fucking moron. Maybe 6 months from now you'll have heard of Blackrock, Vanguard and StateStreet...

Rational: FTX was funding many Democrats because the founder supported Democrats ($38M). Looks like the money came from FTX customer accounts. He also donated to a Ukrainian fund.
Irrational: US Government Aid to Ukraine was being given to FTX (somehow?) and then laundered back to the Democrats via FTX and all the claims it came from customer accounts are wrong (for reasons?)

The later is Q-Anon irrational conspiracy theory nonsense.
Title: Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
Post by: Kiero on November 16, 2022, 01:01:14 PM
Rational: FTX was funding many Democrats because the founder supported Democrats ($38M). Looks like the money came from FTX customer accounts. He also donated to a Ukrainian fund.
Irrational: US Government Aid to Ukraine was being given to FTX (somehow?) and then laundered back to the Democrats via FTX and all the claims it came from customer accounts are wrong (for reasons?)

The later is Q-Anon irrational conspiracy theory nonsense.

Proving my point that you're a Grade A moron. Don't worry, a few months from now, you'll catch up.