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Author Topic: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?  (Read 4012 times)

KindaMeh

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Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« on: November 07, 2022, 05:55:02 PM »
So, basically, what do we think is gonna happen and what results will we see both at the finale and as things progress?

My personal gut feeling is that the House is a done deal. The question is by how much. Likewise, I think Republicans win all the "toss-up" senate states folks are watching right now. Nevada (hello Sisolak corruption charges and COVID emergency power choices), Wisconsin, Georgia (despite everything), and even Pennsylvania (bad blue debate performance) go red. So I'm guessing at least 52 seats Republican at the end of it, even thinking conservatively  ;). I also think we're gonna see a "red mirage" in some states because they still have vote by mail and the like, but that even with said mirage existing the wave will potentially carry regardless of that when all votes are in.

Democrats did better in redistricting than expected, but that's mainly just cuz Republicans got greedy and the blues happen to have a lot of constituents whose votes the courts are more likely to protect. And yeah, blue has fewer seats up for grabs, but still, look at their approval rates and things like the national generic ballot and they're pretty vulnerable. Heck, in a lot of deep red congressional races blue's not even on the ballot, so that gives an edge as well in that looking into it there are more Republicans with no Democratic opponents than vice versa, partly due to how local elections are structured. Likewise some people are saying that pollsters are gonna overestimate red this time because after 2016 and 2020 they're looking for credibility in that direction. Maybe, and I guess they got it right in 2018 midterms when Trump wasn't in play directly, but... No. I'm like 90% sure on admittedly somewhat baseless gut instinct that they've underestimated the right again despite the readjustments. Because folks are really angry and are convinced there was fraud, in whatever quantity. Also, the polls for senate which have Democrats winning almost all assume polling bias that will turn out in their favor. I'm not gambling on that, unless it's in the opposite direction. I mean, yes, I guess in theory it could be true, but I say look at the fundamentals: Presidential Approval, Trends For An Incumbent President's Party, The Economy, Etcetera...

More to the point, people are closely watching the polls, sometimes patrolling them, sometimes armed. I think that while this is voter intimidation in some cases it will nonetheless work to shut down would-be votes on the left, or transition them to mail where they may just not arrive on time. (That and many votes by mail will have already been cast, which I guess complicates things a bit cuz I wasn't watching the polling closely at the time, but I feel would benefit Republicans in that partisanship is probably strongest closer to election day.) Very few of the polls are factoring this in, and I think it could be a small but decisive factor in a vote where Republicans are leading the polls by several percentage points among likely (as opposed to just registered) voters, especially with voter enthusiasm factored in. I could also be wrong on magnitude and it could usher in a huge red sweep potentially. It would also be big for Republicans in the end if there was genuine WIDESPREAD AND DEMONSTRABLY/LEGALLY DECISIVE (have to qualify here) fraud confirmable, because presumably it would both open the door to legal challenges and in the moment reduce that by both preventing crime and also admittedly adding some sketchy intimidation bias potentially the other way cuz many voters are easy to spook and blues fear guns even in safe hands. [But I'm less thinking the facts support huge as opposed to modest fraud, given most folks can go to check to see if they voted (so it's hard to impersonate), and given anybody voting twice gets their vote flagged a no go until who committed the crime is figured out. (A second vote happens way less often than I thought, but yeah, they apparently have protocols in place for them pretty much literally everywhere, jhkim actually made a decent point on that one in a prior discussion, though as a counterpoint they don't always coordinate well between states.)] ANYWAYS, point being, I think Republicans have an edge there that none of the polls are considering.

So I dunno, torn between suspecting moderate Republican over-performance relative to the average pollster and an all-out sweep/red wave. What are your own thoughts and speculations?
« Last Edit: November 07, 2022, 06:22:36 PM by KindaMeh »

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2022, 11:06:09 PM »

DocJones

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2022, 12:37:25 PM »
Prediction


jhkim

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2022, 01:12:06 PM »
Yeah, I expect the Republicans to take both the House and the Senate at this point. The House will have a somewhat smaller wave than the 2018 blue wave, but that is more than enough to take the House. The Senate just needs slight shift, which predictions are they will do. That seems tough to call, as it depends on a lot of local specifics.

Bruwulf

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2022, 03:39:07 PM »
Pessimistically: Blue wave, because the democrats have spent the last month basically all but saying they weren't going to let the republicans win. IE, all the "calm down, this election will take a while to count" bullshit.

I hope I'm wrong, though.

Lee

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2022, 05:40:32 PM »
Ah man, the salt is going to be deeeelllllicious.  I've got my popcorn and beer ready.

Assuming they don't steal it.  Hopefully it's much harder to steal a bunch of congressional races than a single presidential race, though.  It'll be hilarious to watch all the fraud attempts though.  Lololol.

If it takes more than a day to count, top off your mags and get ready to rock and roll.

The real problem though is, there are so many rino swamp creatures in there that nothing will change anyway.  They'll screw around and do nothing, the same way they always do every time they have a majority in both houses.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 05:43:48 PM by Lee »
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Bruwulf

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2022, 05:50:51 PM »
And it starts again in Arizona.

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2022, 07:25:18 PM »
And it starts again in Arizona.

I wouldn't read too much into printer ink settings being insufficient in a single county that has 80% of machines not doing that and the option to do stuff manually, big though the county is, FOX says those tech issues are not even a thing anymore as of a bit ago. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with the ultimate results. Though it's gonna look a lot more red the night of the election than when everything's said and done, which will confuse some folks. (I bet it looks like a total sweep, whether it ends up being one or not.) Mail votes are a thing and provisionals won't be counted til last in the many states where they apply, like Nevada and Pennsylvania, and they'll be where a lot of the blue voters are. Plus Georgia could go to run-off. That and everybody on both sides is likely to challenge results and ask for recounts if it's close. Senate may be close in the end, given that the democrats have way fewer seats up for grabs and are funneling all their money and efforts to states where the margins look close even for red-leaning pollsters, but I stick with my predictions of red taking all the battleground states.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 07:50:23 PM by KindaMeh »

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2022, 07:25:44 PM »
That said, I guess if my gut instincts about some things are wrong, the pollsters more generally could be right, and then we'd see a much tighter setup with better blue odds, unfortunately.

If that turns out to be true and the professionals are on average right... We may not know til Saturday on Pennsylvania and Nevada, though it might look like a close red victory even the day immediately after election night.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 07:51:00 PM by KindaMeh »

3catcircus

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2022, 07:54:01 PM »
Ah man, the salt is going to be deeeelllllicious.  I've got my popcorn and beer ready.

Assuming they don't steal it.  Hopefully it's much harder to steal a bunch of congressional races than a single presidential race, though.  It'll be hilarious to watch all the fraud attempts though.  Lololol.

If it takes more than a day to count, top off your mags and get ready to rock and roll.

The real problem though is, there are so many rino swamp creatures in there that nothing will change anyway.  They'll screw around and do nothing, the same way they always do every time they have a majority in both houses.

Here's the thing. Whatever publicly was seen from the 2020 steal, RNC operatives have probably seen the actual shenanigans and are ready to counter them at every turn this year. 

Voter fraud is an arms race and the Dems haven't really had a chance to improve their game - they've been too busy stumbling from one "easily-solvable issue that will become a crisis because of our stupidity, incompetence, hubris, or some combination of all three" to the next over the past two years.

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2022, 12:32:58 AM »
No real sign of a "red wave" I'd say, so far. It's coming out pretty close to the polls on average, again so far.

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2022, 01:06:43 AM »
Yeah, I appear to have overestimated red. The polls were apparently roughly right in that it was a toss-up for senate and it looks like blue is winning the tosses. 

Edit: Heck, I now think that 16% House victory chance is looking quite plausible. Guess that'll teach me to get ahead of myself and dismiss the experts.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 02:34:21 AM by KindaMeh »

Trond

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2022, 08:18:02 AM »
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2022, 09:54:50 AM »
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.

It's definitely not. "conservative" people (small "c") prefer stability. This was a major upheaval to how we do things, and it didn't come with some new wave of interest behind it pushing this change forward as the topic had actually grown more settled over time since Roe was first decided and not less.

The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.

Not that it makes a huge difference for this event. We're still going to get mostly gridlock until the next Presidential election.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 09:58:32 AM by Mistwell »

Trond

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2022, 11:37:29 AM »
I think that the abortion issue may have taken some of the momentum from Republicans. I don’t think it’s a winning issue for conservatives.

It's definitely not. "conservative" people (small "c") prefer stability. This was a major upheaval to how we do things, and it didn't come with some new wave of interest behind it pushing this change forward as the topic had actually grown more settled over time since Roe was first decided and not less.

The party now also has a Trump problem. He deserves some of the blame for this, as some candidates he pushed didn't make it but normally would have, and his popularity in the party and with independents is sagging. Meanwhile DeSantis had a very very good night and his popularity is increasing.

Not that it makes a huge difference for this event. We're still going to get mostly gridlock until the next Presidential election.

I agree with all of this. I think that even a lot of people who agree with much of what he's saying still feel that Trump=chaos. Part of the chaos is Trump himself, but a big part of it is also that a lot of people just can't handle him no matter what he does. I suspect he reminds them of the bullies in school or something. Interestingly, Hillary Clinton elicits a similar visceral negative reaction in many, even some on the left. In her case, I think she reminds people of the teacher everyone hated :D