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Author Topic: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?  (Read 5073 times)

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2022, 10:13:11 PM »
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2022, 11:09:30 PM »
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition. Doesn’t it breaking in favor of the Democrats, allegedly, mean blue keeps Senate? Could you rephrase? Also if you mean it’s going against blue and in favor of the home team for sentence 2, could we perhaps get some sources or a vague narrative as to how?

For instance, in opposition to that claim, with 13% of the vote (much of which is blue mail-in) still left, Cortez-Masto has narrowed Laxalt's lead to around 9,000 votes. And while both FOX and ABC aren't calling Arizona, which means there are expected red votes left in there, as I predicted, for the remaining 20%, a brief tilt towards a narrowing lead gave way to a widened 6% lead for blue in senate as some bluer areas got their ballots counted. So it looks like senate may be hard to gain for red, much as we've been seeing since election night.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2022, 11:37:14 PM by KindaMeh »

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #47 on: November 11, 2022, 02:08:04 AM »
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition.


You are correct I was tired and typed the opposite word to the one I meant. I meant to say it's looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate regardless of how Georgia eventually breaks. Nevada and Arizona look like they will both go to the Democratic candidate giving the Democrats 50 seats plus the VP to break ties. 

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #48 on: November 11, 2022, 02:37:53 AM »
It's not looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate, regardless of the runoff in Georgia. Nevada and Arizona are breaking for the Democrat.

I can’t make heads nor tails of this analysis. I feel like sentences one and two are in opposition.


You are correct I was tired and typed the opposite word to the one I meant. I meant to say it's looking very likely Democrats keep the Senate regardless of how Georgia eventually breaks. Nevada and Arizona look like they will both go to the Democratic candidate giving the Democrats 50 seats plus the VP to break ties.

Well, if they both go blue, I give Walker worse odds in Georgia. Republicans would know he can’t win them the Senate, and he’s a weaker candidate with that in mind. Blue leadership on the other hand would still want to get to 51, because they know Manchin is too sane (comparatively) to approve some of the things they want to pass. That and he could plausibly actually pass a bipartisan bill from the house if left as tie breaking senator. So they may well spend to ensure it doesn’t happen. That and they’ll be hungry for a win to offset their admittedly smaller than expected losses in the house. Maybe. Honestly, my prediction flop on the night of the election means I might need to trust my gut a bit less.

Ratman_tf

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #49 on: November 11, 2022, 04:13:04 AM »


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.

Looks like they lumped them all on the same table to me. Am I missing something?
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Kiero

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #50 on: November 11, 2022, 08:00:51 AM »
Gosh, why am I not surprised that Misty is a dimwit who thinks you have genuinely free and fair elections in the US, and that the Democrats haven't been involved in industrial scale fraud and corruption for decades?

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.
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Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #51 on: November 11, 2022, 10:25:52 AM »


"Raised doubts". Oh no. No one should ever question anything political.

I appreciate they made the distinction and didn't just lump it together, making it easier to make your own judgement on it. To me, "raised doubts" isn't objectionable, but "denied legitimacy" is objectionable.

Looks like they lumped them all on the same table to me. Am I missing something?

I mean, they spell it out right? It's not a hard calculation to do. Yes it's all one table about this broad topic but they list the detail so you can see it for yourself.

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #52 on: November 11, 2022, 10:27:59 AM »
Gosh, why am I not surprised that Misty is a dimwit who thinks you have genuinely free and fair elections in the US, and that the Democrats haven't been involved in industrial scale fraud and corruption for decades?

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

The evidence of corruption and stolen elections turned out to be bogus. It's not like we didn't investigate a shit-ton. It came up bupkis. The worst red flags were extremely tiny errors and ended up favoring Republicans about as much as they favored Democrats and were all on the scale of ordinary human error and not some grand conspiracy to commit fraud. You can't just vibes this kind of thing man, you have to produce the evidence and there wasn't any.

And the nation agrees with me. Not just Democrats - we're seeing the "they stole the election!" crowd fail right now. It was a losing claim.

That said I've made the case for why we should have much more transparent elections with a lot more security measures involved. I've described how the old Bob Dornan case proved we're registering people who are not allowed to vote (mostly from your nation) and we need to fix that.  But not because I think there was mass coordinated cheating (there was not) but because it's the right thing to do. And because when roughly half the nation cares about something that much and it's not that costly to do then you make it a priority. We do still run elections like a third world nation when it wouldn't take much to modernize our system. We should do that.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2022, 10:33:42 AM by Mistwell »

The Spaniard

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #53 on: November 12, 2022, 07:57:15 AM »

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

This sums it up perfectly

KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #54 on: November 12, 2022, 11:32:42 AM »

Never mind that most of the swamp-dwelling RINOs don't give a fuck about the corruption, because they are personally profiting from the status quo. That a supposed developed nation takes more than a few hours to count votes is risible. Literal third world countries are more competent at running elections.

This sums it up perfectly

Or not, cuz if we called everything on election night, even past midnight PST, it would’ve been blue, cuz they were leading, often solidly. We needed the slow count rural vote and mail ballot drop box to snag back the lead in Nevada, though it was always likely to be impermanent given the number of mail-in votes confirmable more generally on Election Day. Likewise, Arizona we were hoping for absentee ballots and Election Day mail and the like to go red enough to give us a win in senate, given the state’s unique properties, and it didn’t quite materialize as strongly as hoped, but still staved off a call for blue for quite a bit. Georgia we need that run-off cuz blue effectively won. Alaska it’s a question of if the challenger Republican can get enough votes to breach 50, else the incumbent moderate Republican can win via ranked choice voting. As things stood on election night, you’d probably be displeased to see the moderate take the win, though I wouldn’t have minded. Point being it’s a trend in all these races that the long count favors red chances by actually giving them a shot.

Also, while as a conservative independent I have little skin in the game… RINO to me makes more sense as a term for those who abandoned red’s traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies to chase Trump’s populism than for those who won’t bow and kiss the ring on Trump cuz, for instance, they prefer DeSantis. That and more moderate Republican voters seem to be even a smidge more likely to be lower income on average, so not profiting off of America’s current state any moreso than anybody else, at least according to what the internet brought me on that: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/demographics-and-lifestyle-differences-among-typology-groups/

The Spaniard

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #55 on: November 12, 2022, 11:56:13 AM »
As an Independent Conservative, we're going to disagree.

Zelen

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #56 on: November 12, 2022, 12:42:18 PM »
RINO to me makes more sense as a term for those who abandoned red’s traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies to chase Trump’s populism...

Not really. The MAGA coalition was largely built around a few pillars: End to unlimited immigration, end to forever wars, and bringing American jobs back to America.

All of those are aligned with "traditional fiscal, trade, and foreign policies." What's not aligned with those policies are: Unlimited immigration & outsourcing to benefit predatory multinational corporations (& to cheat at elections), or pursuing endless foreign wars to benefit Military & Global-Governance profiteers.

The Buckley-ite & Neo"conservative" branches thoroughly sold out the American people to powerful interests. What we call Trump's movement or MAGA is simply an authentic Conservatism that's finally coalesced due to the existential nature of the grievances.

Mistwell

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #57 on: November 12, 2022, 12:43:31 PM »
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2022, 12:45:14 PM by Mistwell »

jeff37923

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #58 on: November 12, 2022, 12:50:53 PM »
For 40 years, Republican meant something specific. Then Trump suddenly did a massive turn towards traditionally Union positions on trade and immigration, and traditionally progressive views on foreign policy. And suddenly anyone who just continued to keep the positions on trade and immigration and foreign policy was a Republican In Name Only? Fuck that. It's Trumpers who "redefined" Republicanism to mean Democratic positions. It's you guys who are not-Republican in your views.

If you compare Bob Dole, W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney's views to Trumps, the first four are all very similar to each other, and Trumps is drastically different. He's the not-Republican in that bunch, not everyone that came before him.

Now if we could attach a generator to all of this spin, we could solve the world's clean energy problem.
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KindaMeh

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Re: Election Predictions: How Red the Wave?
« Reply #59 on: November 12, 2022, 01:14:35 PM »
I mean, I get what Zelen is saying about immigration, there he made no departure. But I feel as proven by Biden following through on Trump's Afghanistan plans to disastrous effect, we never should've embraced dove policies if we intend to keep America First relevant within the international political landscape. We need to stay a superpower and part of that is funding our military and applying pressure, whether political, economic or sometimes even otherwise, where necessary to threats. We also kinda abandoned our allies abroad and weakened most of our political alliances that had been built up over decades, which I personally felt was less conservative and more just questionable.

Likewise, I'm all for fair trade over free trade (I wish he had tried to break apart the WTO), but it definitely departed from the Republican mainstream as I perceived it since Reagan.

Also fiscally there was a huge departure. Man doubled our deficit in an up economy/market.

Even culturally, he was friendly to the LGB (but not T) community, and while I'm not gonna fault him for that, the guy wasn't super culturally conservative as proven by his own lifestyle. Definitely not a strong Christian, or fighting for that kinda thing, which used to be pretty strongly linked to conservative principles, though I'm not really gonna complain about changing demographics there.

So I think he did depart from core Republican principles as they stood when he seized the party and changed its meaning. I'm not gonna complain about many of those changes, but calling the people who refused to change their ideology RINOs just doesn't make much sense to me.